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Split Run Play Updates
Sunday, November 12, 2000

ATK - Alliant Techsystems $95.06 (+1.06)

Analysts believe that no matter who ends up becoming our next president, military spending is likely to increase. Investors who have picked up on this observation, have been rewarded with solid profits. Alliant is the #1 supplier of ammunition to the American military. The Company also owns a missile subsidiary and a subsidiary that concentrates on defense systems. ATK was one of the better performers last week, as the stock continued to explode after a solid earnings release on November 2nd. The $1.72 in profits the Company reported was two pennies ahead of estimates. Alliant also announced a 3:2 split that will be paid on November 27th. Alliant ran into a little profit taking in the latter part of the week. Nevertheless, the stock remains within firing range of its all time high of $98.25. Volume was very strong last week. Sometimes high volume accompanied by churning action can signify a short term top, so be careful. Friday's high print of $96.75 will be the first mild resistance that traders will be watching. The next resistance is the all time high of $98.25. The 20-DMA has provided nice support during this rally and we have set our stop about two points lower at $88.00. A new high will give us the opportunity to raise our stop. You can find this suggestion in our In Play section. The OBV and MACD both look quite strong but Money Flow was damaged a bit by the high volume selling we saw in the overall markets on Thursday and Friday. The RSI is hovering near its overbought indication level. Therefore, be exceedingly careful if this stock breaks down early next week. We intend to exit this position either via one of our stops or just before the split becomes payable.


Picked on November 5th @ $94.00
Change since picked +1.06



SKYW - SkyWest Inc. $54.19 (+1.44)

SkyWest ended the week fractionally higher after announcing a 2:1 stock split. On Friday, in the face of a very negative day on Wall Street, SKYW held up surprisingly well. The stock was off only $0.31 at the close of trading. Friday's volume was slightly higher than normal, at 252,000 shares. SkyWest Airlines, Inc., operates one of the larger regional airlines in the US. The company offers convenient and frequent flight schedules designed to maximize connecting and origin-destination traffic for its major code-sharing partners. The company has selected December 15th as the payable date for the split. As of Friday's close, SKYW has established support at the 5-dma at $53.85, the 10-dma at $52.67 and the 20-dma at $50.34. Resistance will be last week's high point of $54.63. Look for good volume over the 3-month average of 215K, when the stock conquers resistance for conformation of a continuation in the trend. A new high achieved on big volume might make a nice entry point for a new play. Look for confirmation in the Airline Sector (XAL.X) when considering opening a new play. The XAL.X is currently trying to emerge from a cup and handle formation (very bullish). If SKYW pulls back to a support level and bounces on good volume, this too might make a good entry point. A good time to look for these bounces is in the first and last hour of the trading day. For now we will keep our protective stop loss at the half-century mark. Please monitor our IN PLAY section for any changes to our stops.


Picked on November 9th @ $54.50
Change since picked -0.31



SYY - Sysco Corporation $54.13 (+3.00)

Sysco Corporation is the largest North American supplier of food and food related products to the foodservice industry. On Friday, shares of SYY traded to a new all-time high of $54.94 before pulling back to close at $54.13. Volume was average on the day. The stock has had positive momentum going into the UBS Warburg Food, Beverage and Household Products Conference next week. Hopefully, the conference will generate some positive publicity for SYY. As we move towards December 15, the payable date for their 2:1 split, we will look for signs of increased volume and relative strength to confirm a split run. Going forward, support for the stock is at the 10-dma at $52.44, with stronger support at the 20-dma, now up to $50. Resistance should be encountered at $55, just above the all-time high. The next resistance level may show up at $58. A bounce off of $52.44 or a breakout above $55 on midday volume of at least 400,000 shares may create lower risk entry points. Our stops remain at $49.50 to limit potential losses.


Picked on November 9th @ $53.94
Change since picked +0.19



UNH - UnitedHealth Group Inc. $113.00 (+6.87)

UnitedHealth Group posted a 6% gain for the week despite a very choppy market. High hopes for the Health Care Industry were lifted higher this week, as it appeared that Governor George W. Bush was the nation's new president. Investors rallied the stock in advance of what they hope will be a Health Care friendly administration. UNH provides both comprehensive managed care services, such as HMO and carrier replacement products, and unbundled health care management and cost containment products and services. The company recently announced a 2:1 stock split, planned for December 22nd, but the election results take top billing for now. Next week expect more gyrations in the stock until a President is elected. We continue to view this as a very risky play and advise caution to all potential investors. Support is now noted at $111.00, $109.68 and the 20-dma at $108.00. Further proof of UNH's strong up trend comes in the fact that the stock has not broken its 50-dma since late July. Resistance stands firm at $115.00 and then the recent high at $117.00. Look for volume to pop over 1.2 million shares when considering opening a bullish position. We will keep our stop set at $103.00 until further notice. Please review our IN PLAY section for any changes.


Picked on November 7th @ $108.75
Change since picked +4.25


 


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