Polaris Industries Inc. engineers, markets, and manufactures snowmobiles, personal watercraft, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles and related parts, garments and accessories. For the FY ended 12/31/00, net sales rose 7% to $1.43B. Net income increased 8% to $82.8M. Revenues reflect growth in all-terrain vehicles and expansion of company%s parts, gamets & accessories business. Earnings also reflect increased equity in income of affiliates.

February 13, 2001

Polaris engineers, markets, and manufactures snowmobiles, personal watercraft, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles and related parts, garments and accessories. On Tuesday, the stock climbed to $49.22, an intra-day high, which beat the previous high recorded earlier this month by two cents. The stock recently beat earnings by five cents, marking the fourth quarter in a row that the company either beat or matched earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the stock has nearly doubled in price over the past year. Currently, PII has 23.7 million shares authorized and 80 million authorized, enough for a 2:1 or a 3:1 split. There are no scheduled meetings for the company, but with the number of authorized shares, a split announcement could be made at any time. Looking at the chart, we see that support is located at the 5-dma at $48.08, the 10-dma at $47.57 and then the 20-dma at $46.26. Resistance is up at $49.22 and the half-century mark. When considering a new play on PII, look for strong volume, 60,000 shares by midday and a move through resistance or a bounce off support as a possible entry point. We will place a stop loss below the last support level at $44.88.

Picked on February 13th at $48.70
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss at $44.88

March 8, 2001

Polaris jumped 6-percent for the day and came within $0.76 of a new 52-week high. The bullish advancement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) seems to have had a positive effect on PII. If you are considering opening a new play on PII, look for the stock to conquer resistance at $51.65 on heavy volume of at least 100,000 shares traded by midday. Thursday advance was accompanied by volume of 177,000 shares, which is 88% greater than the average three-month trading volume of 94,000 shares. We are going to tighten our stop loss on this play to $48.00.

Picked on February 13th at $48.70
Change since picked +2.20
Stop Loss at $48.00

March 6, 2001

Polaris Industries seems to be stuck in a rut. For the second day in a row the stock channeled between $47 - $48, much like it has done twice before in February. The trading volume has shrunk from the three-month average of 93,000 to less than 54,000 both days this week. Thus, with such low volume the stock has been unable to conquer its immediate resistance level the 20-dma at $48.00. The bullish engulfing pattern that we noted in Sunday's report has yet to provide the favorable response we were looking to achieve. Perhaps last month's downgrade from USB Piper Jaffray along with the bearishness of the market has investors in a watch and see mode. Regardless, we are looking for some solid news or momentum to resurrect this split candidate play. From where PII sits now possible new play opportunities might exist if the stock were to bounce off support at $47.00 or move through the 20-dma on volume exceeding 100,000 traded by 1:00 EST. If support cannot hold then look for the stock to possibly test the 50-dma at $44.88. If this were to occur then we'd be out of this play as we are maintaining our stop loss on this play at $44.88.

Picked on February 13th at $48.70
Change since picked -1.00
Stop Loss at $44.88

March 4, 2001

This past week Polaris Industries Inc. chose the path of least resistance and followed the broader markets into negative territory. Percentage wise, PII, which manufactures and markets a variety of all-terrain vehicles, suffered much less than the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) this week but managed to fall below its base formation nonetheless. The week started off on a great note when GVA vaulted to a new high on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday the stock spiraled downward only to end the week with a bounce and a mild recovery. Friday, GVA gapped down and found some solid footing just above the 50-dma at $45.00 then proceeded to climb out of its hole the rest of the session. With this wide swing in prices, PII put in an “outside” day, meaning Friday’s price bar fully engulfed Thursday’s price bar. This is usually a very bullish sign, so we are encouraged going into next week. Friday's trading volume was recorded at 114,000 shares or about 30% higher than the three-month average of 88,000. PII has been a split candidate for nearly a month now. The company has 23.7 million shares outstanding and 80 million authorized; enough for a 2:1 or a 3:1 split. There are no scheduled meetings for the company, but with the number of authorized shares, a split announcement could be made at any time. For next week possible new play opportunities might exist if the stock bounces off support at $46.00 or moves through resistance at $48.00 on heavy volume, 100,000 traded by midday. If support fails, the 50-dma is just below at $44.50 and should catch the stock from falling further. We will keep our stop loss at $44.88.

Picked on February 13th at $48.70
Change since picked -1.50
Stop loss at $44.88