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Play Updates
Thursday, May 11, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

AAPL - Apple Computer $102.81 +3.50 (-10.31)

Apple Computer designs, manufactures and markets personal computers and related personal computing and communicating solutions. They target education, creative, consumer and business customers. The stock lost its luster in March after hitting an all time high of $150.38 on 3/23. Since then, shares of AAPL have been in a steady downward trend as it went with the NASDAQ downstream flow, hitting a relative low of $98.75 on Wednesday. On Thursday, the stock bounced back. This stock was in a free-fall but it stopped dead at the 200-dma, showing major support in the $95-$100 range and we feel that the stock is at a good support level for new plays. Since the stock has shown a tendency to trade near the $120 level, we expect a possible 20-point gain from here in the short-term. The BoD announced a 2:1 stock split on 4/19 to be paid in the form of a stock dividend on 6/20. In related news, Dell (DELL) announced excellent numbers after the bell on Thursday, and this should give AAPL and the rest of the personal computer sector a lift. On the technical side, support is holding up very well at the century mark with additional support at the 200-dma, now at $96. Resistance is the 5-dma at $106 and then $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a move above $106 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on volume greater than 2 million by midday, only in a rising market. Be quick to take profits near resistance levels since we are likely to remain in a range bound market with extended rallies being unlikely.


Picked on May 11th @ $102.81
Change since picked +0.00



AVX - AVX Corporation $82.44 +2.93 (-14.81)

C'mon, get plugged in! Imagine what it would be like not to have electricity. No TV, radio, toaster, microwave. What would it be like? Thanks to companies like AVX Corp, we don't have to worry about that right now. AVX Corporation is a leading manufacturer and supplier of a broad line of passive electronic components and related products. AVX manufactures a line of multi-layered ceramic and solid tantalum capacitors in many sizes and configurations, both leaded and surface mounted. Capacitors are used in virtually all-electronic products tostore, filter or regulate electric energy. We are adding AVX to our list in advance of their first stock split on June 2nd. The Company has made some great advances in a number of ways as of late. On April 13th, they beat earnings estimates by .15 cents. Just days later they announced their first stock split since going public in 1995. On May 2nd, the Company hit a new intra day high of $100. Shortly after that the stock fell prey to the overall market conditions coupled with profit taking. Now having retraced 25 points from the previous high and establishing a close back over the 50-dma at $82; we feel the stock is poised for a final split run. Today the volume was positive at 474k shares or 22% greater than normal. With a few weeks to go we feel some gains are in order for AVX. The stock closed on support at $82.00 and a move higher from here on good volume would be a good entry point. Resistance is upstairs at $90 and then the 20-dma at $92. Beyond that it will be the century mark to be conquered. Confirm the direction of the market after tomorrow's release of the PPI report prior to entering. If the move is positive, then confirm any new position with an upward move in the stock.


Picked on May 11th @ $82.44
Change since picked 0.00



EMC - EMC Corporation $125.50 +6.50 (-12.50)

Wall Street darling, EMC Corporation, is the leading provider of storage-related hardware, software and service products for the open systems, mainframe and network attached information storage and retrieval system market. McDATA Corporation, a subsidiary of the Company, makes high performance fiber channel information switching products, which are key components of the EMC enterprise storage network. EMC was one of the best-performing stocks of the 90's and it continues to impress investors with its 40% revenue growth rate. Shares of EMC have been trading in a wide range of $105-$145 after hitting an all-time high of $145.44 on March 24th. This may soon change as the stock has now made a higher low on the last dip. Volume has been picking up and we believe that we can expect to see EMC return to the upper portion of its trading channel at $140. On Thursday morning, EMC announced that North American DataCom, Inc. (NADA), a developer of broadband and fiber optic networks, has selected EMC Enterprise Storage systems and software as the nucleus of a leading-edge information infrastructure. The EMC E-Infostructure will serve as the foundation for NADA's high-speed and scalable data storage, Internet access, and telecommunications network services. EMC recently announced a 2:1 stock split with a payable date of 6/2. Going forward, the stock has support at $120 with stronger support at $117. Resistance is the 5-dma at $128 and then the 10-dma at $133. As we said, the trading channel is bound at resistance near $140. Look for a bounce off of $120 or a move through the 5-dma to start new plays. Confirm market momentum and sector direction before opening new positions. Our target date is the June 2nd payable date, however, do not hesitate to collect profits if the stock is near resistance and the market shows weakness.


Picked on May 11th @ $125.50
Change since picked +0.00



MRVC - MRV Communications Inc. $56.25 +3.50 (-7.41)

Chips, Splits and the Holy Land. MRV Communications is a Manufacturer and marketer of high-speed network switching and fiber optic transmission systems that enhance the performance of existing data and telecommunications networks. Additionally, the Company has created several start-up companies and formed independent business units in the optical technology and Internet infrastructure area. We are adding MRVC in advance of their 3rd stock split, scheduled for a paydate of May 26th. To begin, the Company recently saw its stock price rise 300% this year alone before being caught in March's retreat. In the news, they finalized a deal on March 1st for the acquisition of Jolt Ltd. That Company, based in Jerusalem, Israel, is a pioneer in wireless optics and operates in 6 continents. The acquisition will give California based MRVC an international presence. On March 3rd, the Company announced the 2 for 1 split and the stock exploded, gaining 50 point over the following week. Since then, the stock has been badly punished, losing over 130 points from its high. We now see MRVC holding its ground at the 200-dma at $55.00. The stock is nestled in the volatile semiconductor sector and as chip stocks begin to make their advances, we feel MRVC will join the crowd. Trading volume has been below the average of 1.6 million shares, a good sign that perhaps selling has dried up. The split is only 2 weeks away so we'd like to see some positive advances occur soon. Support is now the 200-dma and resistance will first be encountered just overhead at the 20-dma at $59 and then up at $65, a level tested earlier this month. Volume needs to return to 1.6 million shares to promulgate a move from here. New plays should be chaperoned by the positive direction of the NASDAQ and the NWX (Amex Networking Index) Index. Friday's PPI report should give some indication of the market's plan prior to the FOMC meeting next Tuesday, May 16th.


Picked on May 11th @ $56.25
Change since picked 0.00 


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

ALTR - Altera $85.19 +4.38 (-14.44)

With apologies to our feline enthusiasts out there, we are betting that today's semiconductor move was not a dead cat bounce. If chips are going to stage a little rally here, then ALTR could perform better than most. ALTR makes programmable chips, which have become exceedingly popular among a wide range of industries. Demand for their products is very strong and the company is very solid fundamentally and has a fairly reasonable PE of 67. Altera last split a year ago when the stock was trading roughly 15 points lower than current levels. There was a vote yesterday to increase the number of authorized shares and a split could be announced at any time. Like so many of its peers, ALTR reported solid earnings last month and beat estimates by 2 cents. Sitting right at $90, the 50-DMA could offer some pretty stiff resistance. A close above that price could be the trigger for some of you to add this play to your portfolios, as the stock may rally to $100 if resistance can be broken. The MACD is still negative so a couple more days of rallying will be necessary to turn this indicator positive. Like so many other stocks in this market, the On Balance Volume has been weakening as of late. With some of these mixed signals, partial positions may be advisable until the stock can prove that it is on its way back. Resistance sits at $80, as the stock has bounced off of that price twice this week.


Picked on May 11th @ $85.19
Change since picked 0.00 



BBOX - Black Box Corporation $69.81 +0.69 (-6.06)

Designing and developing unique ways to assist customers with technical services for computer and networking equipment, Black Box (BBOX) provides its customers with the highest quality integrated phone and on-site infrastructure services available in the marketplace today. This high-end service quality has paid off immensely for the company, who is set to grow revenues by 45% this year. Reporting earnings just yesterday, BBOX stated that revenues had surprisingly grown by 69% for the quarter. Commenting on earnings, Fred C. Young, Chief Executive Officer of Black Box Corporation, stated, "FY2000 was undoubtedly the strongest year in the history of Black Box. The strength of our worldwide performance is readily apparent in our financial results". The strong performance in the stock might prompt the Board of Directors to announce a 2:1 stock split at their next meeting. Currently having 19.6 million shares outstanding and 40 million shares authorized, the Company has enough shares for such a split to occur. As for the chart, shares have been oscillating around the $70 level for the past couple of months. As the stock advances through $70, price runs follow to $75 or $80, before coming back down to support, usually at $65. This has been the pattern over the last 2 months and we see no reason why it can't continue, especially since there are enough shares to authorize a split. As such, buy signals will be generated if prices can bounce sharply off $65 (support) or advance through $70 (resistance), when accompanied by above average volume (156K shares or better). Look for price advances to meet resistance at $75 and $80, as confirmed several times by the chart. Incorporate trailing stops as prices stall at resistance or fall through support. We'll be going on chart indications for our buy and sell signals since we have no news on an approaching BoD meeting and earnings are not due until August. We'll keep you posted on future announcements as they are publicized.


Picked on May 11th @ $69.81
Change since picked 0.00



JDSU - JDS Uniphase $86.50 +6.31 (-7.31)

Fiber optic networks are fast becoming the infrastructure of choice for the future. JDSU makes the laser subsystems at both ends of the cable that make the systems work. The unbelievable growth story is very well known and the shareholders of JDSU have been rewarded handsomely over the past couple of years. Alas, JDSU is yet another high-flying tech stock that has severely corrected. We have constantly been trying to introduce you to stocks that we believe will emerge from the correction and resume their patterns of making new highs. JDSU certainly qualifies. Obviously a split announcement is unlikely, but the stock has a history of momentum performance and it's in the hottest sector of the tech stocks. The last reported earnings showed a nice increase in profits of over 100% as the Company beat expectations by a penny. Growth is anticipated to continue as JDSU sells its products to a whose-who of the major telecommunications companies. Donaldson Lufkin and Jenrette helped to increase speculation that JDSU is somewhere near a bottom by initiating coverage today with a Buy rating. The late April rally took JSDU back up to $108, which could be tested soon. This week's selling failed to take JDSU to April's double bottom lows at $74. The guess here is that those levels will not be tested as JDSU does have support in a consolidation area at $80. Some resistance has been found at the 10-DMA recently and that number is now sitting in the low $90's. The stock has staged some decent rallies after the Relative Strength Indicator reached slightly oversold conditions and that seems to be occurring again. We will be more excited by this play if some volume can start creeping back in because the On Balance Volume is still very weak. There is some good support at $80 and we suggest placing a trailing stop as JDSU hopefully advances. There is not currently any pending news events that will force us to exit this play.


Picked on May 11th @ $86.50
Change since picked 0.00



ORCL - Oracle $72.38 +4.75 (-4.44)

Oracle is a major component of the NASDAQ 100 and a major technology leader. This database management software company has been expanding its product offerings over the past few years and it now offers a complete line of business software solutions and the Company is particularly strong in helping other companies with their Internet strategies. This expansion has been met with outstanding results. The stock is a solid split candidate at these prices because there is a history of announcements before the stock reaches $100. In fact, throughout its history, ORCL has typically announced 3:2 splits when the stock has been trading in the $60's. Increasing the likelihood that a split is pending is the fact that there was a special shareholder's meeting yesterday where a vote was taken to increase the number of authorized shares to 11 billion from 4 billion, giving the Company plenty of room to enact splits. ORCL has not been immune from the dropping bids of these low volume days. Today's bounce was very important because it really looked like the stock bounced up from its 100-dma, as it has in the past during the NASDAQ selloffs. ORCL better hurry up and rally to avoid having the critical 50-DMA rollover and trend down. A rally above the 10-DMA at $75 tomorrow should do the trick. The stock closed just below the 5-DMA today. But that should not pose much resistance because ORCL will probably move higher on the open on the heels of DELL's earnings release. The 50-DMA will pose some resistance at $77.50. Unfortunately, the MACD is still strongly negative so do not get caught for a big loss if the rally does not hold. We will be exiting this position if there is a split announcement or before the June 13th earnings, whichever comes first.


Picked on May 11th @ $72.38
Change since picked 0.00



VSH - Vishay Intertechnology $74.88 +3.88 (-6.38)

Something is very Vishay here! So what are we all charged up about with this diversified electronics company. Let me tell you, Vishay Intertechnology is a leading international manufacturer and supplier of discrete passive electronic components and discrete active electronic components; particularly resistors, capacitors, inductors, diodes and transistors. The Company has been bolted with great news as of late. On April 26th, they blew away and I mean blew away earnings. The Company reported a profit of .84 cents per shares versus a profit of .01 cents per share for the same quarter the previous year. Two days later the stock hit a new high of $87.50. On May 1st, VSH announced plans for another public offering of 5,800,00 shares of stock. The money raised will go toward debt reduction; the shares were prices on May 10th at $73.50 per share. Finally, the Company announced on Thursday morning that it should exceed second-quarter earnings estimates of .95 cents that were previously projected by analysts. It is no wonder that with all this positive news we are adding VSH to our split candidate list. The Company has a meeting scheduled for May 18th at which time they will ask shareholders to increase the number of outstanding shares. Since the Company has previously split its stock 25 times, we feel that they may just go for it once again. The most recent split came last June. Since then the stock has appreciated 300%. Technically, the stock has held up well lately, bouncing off the 20-dma ($71.40) today on twice the normal volume of 2.8 million shares. That same level will serve as near term support. Resistance is light at the 10-dma at $77 and then it is on up to challenge the old high at $87.50. A continued move on volume of at least 1.5 million shares would make for a nice entry point. Confirm any new plays with the overall direction of the market along with Friday's PPI report.


Picked on May 11th @ $74.88
Change since picked 0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

CMOS - Credence Systems Corporation $128.44 +7.06 (-20.31)

How important are semiconductors in today's high-tech environment? Semiconductor chips are used in virtually all electronic equipment and provide power for an increasingly advanced world. To make sure semiconductors are functioning properly, manufacturers, like Intel, will hire out CMOS to test the functionality of their chips. The strong demand for this service has made the stock an interesting target for momentum plays. Presently, shares have traded in a consolidation range ($120 to $150), near all-time highs. Today's strong advance (+5.82%) puts us near our first major resistance test at the 50-dma ($131.27). In order for the stock to break this level and advance to the next level of resistance at the century and a half mark, daily volume will have to be better than average (550k shares). A break through the century and a half mark could signify a highly explosive advance into new high territory. As for support, sharp bounces off $120 will present entries, when accompanied by good volume. Avoid the stock if the trading range is violated below $120. Use trailing stops to help capture profits. Design your exit strategies prior to earnings, by closing positions no later than the May 15th close of trading.


Picked on May 9th @ $127.44
Change since picked +1.00



PWAV - Powerwave Technologies Inc. $186.50 +24.43 (-8.50)

Powerwave Technologies lived up to its name the last couple of days with waves of powerful volatility. PWAV is in the business of making and marketing ultra-linear radio frequency (RF) power amplifiers. These amplifiers are used to enhance the quality in the transmission of wireless devices like cell phones while limiting the level of interference. Perhaps you have experienced the aggravation of "Cell Hell", being cut off in the middle of a conversation for no apparent reason. PWAV and their technology are helping to prevent that. The stock had jockeyed around a lot the last couple days, down 21 points Wednesday, back 24 points Thursday. The pending stock split is now just days away, scheduled for Tuesday May 16th. We began by mentioning fifty and holding because the stock held nicely Wednesday at the 50-dma. Thursday, the stock gapped open and never looked back. Positive volume accompanied the stock all day, closing higher by 60% at 1.24 million shares. Basically this is now a one-day trade for us as we will exit this position at the close of trading on Friday. We are exiting one day before the paydate. The stock now has light support at the 20-dma at $175 and then firm support back at the 50-dma at $160. Resistance is just above at $190, the 10-dma and then the important psychological level of 200. If the market reacts positively to Friday's release of the PPI numbers, then it could bode well for another strong day for PWAV. We are not recommending new plays this late in the game. Again, we are out of PWAV at the close of Friday per our normal policy.


Picked on May 9th at $183.25 
Change since picked +3.25


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

ADI - Analog Devices, Inc. $59.88 +3.88 (-9.06)

After yesterday's debacle we saw a substantial comeback rally in the Semiconductor Index (SOX) that picked up ADI and took the stock along for the ride. The SOX was up 57 points or 6 1/4%. There are two factors that may suggest that ADI has seen its low for the week. The first is the pending earnings announcement on May 17th before the open. Earnings are anticipated to be strong and many of the chip leaders who have already reported have exceeded expectations. The second factor is the solid report just released by Dell Computer. The final bellwether to report beat the Street by 3 pennies and is up solidly after the close. DELL's strength should lead to a solid performance for major technology concerns tomorrow. Sometimes we get lucky and call things perfectly. ADI sold off and bounced right off of support at the April low of $54. This double bottom is a bullish formation and ADI should at least hold its current levels or trend higher from here. There are some hurdles to jump. The 5-DMA provides some resistance at $62 followed by the 10-DMA at $67.25. Three major technical indicators, RSI, OBV and the MACD are neutral to negative right now, so the likelihood of the stock screaming up seems remote. But we could get a nice bounce into the earnings. As always we will be dropping this position no later than the close on May 16th, in order to avoid the earnings announcement.


Picked on May 9th @ $60.69
Change since picked -0.81



AFFX - Affymetrix $133.25 +5.19 (-22.81)

Affymetrix was under pressure again on Wednesday, dipping down to an intra-day low of $125.63 before bouncing back on light volume. The good news is that the stock did not fall below support at the 20-dma. After the bell on Wednesday, FMR, the parent of mutual fund giant Fidelity Investments, announced an increase in its position in AFFX to 11.92% from the 6.23% reported in mid-February. This shows heavy backing of the stock on an institutional level. Shares of AFFX moved higher on the news, trading as high as $139.25 in Thursday's session. After the bell on Thursday, the Company filed to sell $225 million in convertible subordinated notes. This may weigh on the stock on Friday, however, this is old news, as the first filing for the notes came on February 9th, so we are expecting little effect. The Company is holding its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 6/8 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are looking for a split announcement shortly after the meeting. In the meantime, AFFX has support at $130 with stronger support at the 20-dma, now at $126. Set hard stops under $126 to prevent additional losses. We will drop AFFX if it falls below the 20-dma. There is resistance at $139 and then the 5-dma at $141. Open new positions on a bounce off of $130 or a move above $139 on strong volume (500,000 by midday). Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before starting new plays. Consider taking profits if index resistance is approached.


Picked on May 7th @ $156.06
Change since picked -22.81



BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $101.88 0.00 (-34.19)

BRCD is benefiting from the steady growth and popularity of the Internet and the strong demand that the Internet is creating for more complex computer systems. BRCD, which stands at the top of a rapidly expanding market, supplies the need for greater storage area network (SAN) capacities that protect and back-up data. Most recently, and aside from any negative news attached to the company, shares have fallen in sympathy with declines in the NASDAQ composite. Wednesday's strong gap down, followed by heavy selling, provided us with good evidence that shares might be weak on the day. However, the stock was able to maintain its losses by finding support at the century mark. Today's intra-day bounce off $98.38 also confirmed support near the century mark and suggests that additional bounces off this level may provide further buying opportunities. However, to protect against unnecessary loses we'll continue to incorporate a stop for closes below $100. On the upside, look for advances to encounter resistance first at $110, then $120, reinforced by the 10 and 30-dma's ($119.01 and $121.93), respectfully. Though in order to reach or exceed the $120 level, volume will have to be better than average (2.50m shares or better). If this scenario does come to fruition, then we'll look to add to positions as prices advance through resistance. Use trailing stops to secure gains or limit losses. Design exit strategies in front of the earnings date of May 17th, as per our normal policy.


Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked -13.12



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $165.06 +11.31 (-21.88)

For the past couple of weeks every NASDAQ rally has seen a nice move for CHKP as the stock continues to be a favorite among traders. It makes sense because the Company is profitable and provides products and services that are necessary for the future survival of Internet and network systems. Helping the stock today was the announcement of an expansion of the Company's relationship with IBM. The agreement calls for CHKP to provide security software for IBM's new enterprise server line. There could be a shift in sentiment because we have seen several positive news items largely ignored earlier in the week, whereas today's positive news item resulted in a solid rally. Although the stock had a double-digit bounce we would have liked to have seen more volume. CHKP has been developing a nice little uptrend from its April lows. That uptrend line was broken yesterday but today's quick recovery limited the damage. CHKP does seem poised to at least test the $185 resistance point and possibly take a shot at $200 over the next several trading days. The trend will be reversed if the stock takes out yesterday's low at $145. Look for a little resistance at the 5-DMA at $168, as the stock fell back below that price today. A close above the 10-DMA at $174 would instill us with confidence that the stock is poised to move to the old resistance levels previously mentioned. We will exit this position if we get a surprise-split announcement.


Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked -13.94



CIEN - CIENA Corporation $129.44 0.00 (-8.13)

CIENA was hopping on Wednesday after news from Tuesday night. Qwest Communications (Q) entered into a multi-year agreement to buy equipment from CIEN. The stock was one of the few that closed in positive territory after Wednesday's session. Shares of CIEN traded as high as $132 before settling back to $129.44 by the closing bell. On Thursday, stock coverage was initiated by DLJ with a "top pick" investment rating and a $190 target. CIEN gapped up on the news but it could not hold on to the gains as it traded down to $122.25 before recovering later in the day. The Company is expected to announce earnings after the bell on 5/18 and we are looking for a split announcement with the report. In the meantime, support is just under Thursday's low at with additional support at the 20-dma, currently at $116. Set stops under $114 to limit losses. There is resistance at $135 and then $140. Use a bounce off of $122 or move above $135 to start new plays. Initiate new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit in front of earnings on 5/18. Do not be afraid to take profits as the stock reaches resistance levels.

  
Picked on May 9th @ $120.44
Change since picked +9.00



CPN - Calpine Corporation $105.00 +1.44 (+6.25)

Calpine (CPN) is more than just a plain old utility company. Growth is priority number 1 for CPN, which has been witnessed by its past history of aggressive acquisitions. The company's growth strategy has paid off big time for investors, giving them a return of over 1000% in the last two years. Currently trading in a strong trend and a strong sector, shares took a small break on Wednesday and bounced near the 5-dma ($101.88). Acting as good trendline support for the advance, this level should present good intra-day buying, when followed by a sharp bounce. Further down, more support should remain at the century mark, bolstered by the 10-dma, currently at $99.23. However, if volume can stay above average (890K), then we'll anticipate shares continuing their rise and finding resistance at $110, then $120 (all-time high range). Advances through resistance, when followed by good volume, will offer us potential buy points. Incorporate trailing stops to lock in profits. Continue holding positions through the shareholder's meeting (5/18), for split information to follow.


Picked on May 7th @ $98.75
Change since picked +6.25



FLEX - Flextronics International $51.12 +4.81 (-3.38)

FLEX posted a heavy volume reversal Thursday, after bouncing up from support and getting an analyst upgrade. The upgrade, from Raymond James, raised FLEX from a buy to a strong buy and helped shares gain 10.39% on the day to close at $51.13. It seems the best way original equipment manufacturers (OEM's) are able to generate higher profit margins is through outsourcing the production of their equipment. Why does outsourcing work so well? Because an OEM is able to hire an ECM (electronic contract manufacturer), like FLEX to manufacturer equipment and save the OEM the cost of plant leasing and maintenance, training personnel and employee insurance, among other things. Aided by a strong bounce and a support confirmation at the 200-dma ($45.34), shares were able to reverse a 10-day drop of perpetual lower prices. By closing above resistance at the half-century mark, shares may continue to advance to more resistance at $60 if volume can remain strong (4.0m shares or better). On the flip side, look for support to come at $50 and further down at the 200-dma. Additional entries can be signaled if prices re-test these levels and give a definite bounce, when good volume follows. Use stops below support levels to minimize additional losses. Since the BoD meeting is pending, we'll look for support and resistance to trigger our buys and sells.


Picked on May 9th @ $50.62
Change since picked +0.50



INCY - Incyte Pharmaceuticals $68.88 -3.00 (-22.06)

Incyte is having trouble with its 200-dma. The stock was met with resistance every time it approached the 200-dma and the stock was thrown for a loss on average volume in each of the last two sessions. On 6/5, the Company is holding its Annual of Shareholder Meeting at which time the shareholders will vote on an increase the number of authorized shares. Their last split came after a BoD meeting so a split announcement is possible following the June Shareholder Meeting, though not likely given the huge slide in price. For now, the stock has support at $65 with stronger support at the 4/17 low of $63. Place hard stops under $63 as we will drop this play if it trades below this price on Friday. There is light resistance at $70 and then the 200-dma at $76. Look for a bounce off of $65 or a move above $70 on volume greater than 750,000 by midday to open new positions. Confirm market momentum and sector direction before starting new plays. Plan to exit in the session following a split announcement or if the stock trades below $63 tomorrow.


Picked on May 7th @ $90.94
Change since picked -22.06



ITWO - I2 Technology $101.00 +7.69 (-16.06)

ITWO continues to hover at the 50% correction level. $100 is becoming an interesting swing point for the stock as intraday moves tend to accelerate as the stock moves across that price. We were very encouraged to see ITWO close above $100 today and we fully expect the stock to start recapturing its early week losses. ITWO is not really a split or earnings play here, so we will continue to hope for the stock to rally due to investors slowly adding those stocks to their portfolios that are most likely to survive the correction. ITWO received a huge endorsement of their superior software today as the National Association of Convenience Stores selected ITWO (along with Point of Sale Limited, POSI) to create a new company to operate an electronic marketplace for the convenience store and petroleum industry. This industry group has revenues of $505 billion. A move above the 5-DMA at $103 3/4 tomorrow could portend a rally straight to last week's highs at $118, which would obviously be a very nice trade. The move would have to also take out resistance at the 10-DMA sitting just above $110. The MACD is at a crossroads, so a continued rally is necessary to keep this indicator positive. We will be exiting this position if we get a surprise-split announcement. More likely, we will be exiting this position with either a stop (which we are adding at just below today's low at $91) or a realized target price. Stay tuned.


Picked on May 9th @ $104.13
Change since picked -3.13



SEPR - Sepracor Incorporated $100.12 +2.62 (+3.13)

In many respects, the Biotechnology sector has more potential for future growth than many people realize. The logic is simple. Consider what a person is willing to pay to stay healthy and/or alive, almost anything. This is the niche that biotech firms have locked into their business. Staying on top of this potential, SEPR has worked its way well into the top tier of biotechnology firms, and is set to benefit from future ICE drug developments. In that sense, SEPR has avoided the biotech selloff because they are insulated as a drug company, which is considered one of the safe-haven sectors. Shares have taken a breather from a month long uptrend and consolidated the last two days just above major support at the century mark. Light volume (about 675K) through the last few days suggest to us that selling might already be drying up. If better than average volume (1.10m shares or better) can re-surface as prices rebound, then we'll be looking to the stock to climb to $110 and $120 (all-time high range) for resistance. As for support, look for the century mark, bolstered by the 10-dma ($98.93) to be strong. Further down, look to $95 for backup support. We'll set stops for price declines through $94.50. Buying opportunities may arise when prices advance through resistance or bounce distinctly off support and are followed by good volume. Use trailing stops to lock in gains. We'll plan to hold shares up to and through the shareholder's meeting of May 24th, for a possible split announcement to follow.


Picked on May 7th @ $103.25
Change since picked -3.13



SUNW - Sun Microsystems $76.81 -1.00 (-13.69)

Sun Microsystems is a victim of guilt by association. Investors believe that SUNW should fall because all of the other NASDAQ leaders have fallen. We would agree if SUNW was missing its numbers, but it is yet to do that. In addition, SUNW does have a moderately high P/E ratio, but it trades at a much lower multiple than does Cisco. In the news, Sun Chairman, Scott McNealy, filed to register $20.9 million or 229,856 shares of common stock for sale on 5/2. Shares of SUNW fell shortly after the news hit the tape, giving back its intra-day gains and finishing with a $1 loss on the day. On a positive note, SUNW did not dip below support and Dell (DELL) is trading up after its earning report, which may help SUNW tomorrow. The Company is expected to announce earnings in July and we are looking for split out of their next BoD meeting or with the earnings release. The stock continues to trade very near the previously announced split level. They currently have 1.75 billion shares outstanding and 3.6 billion shares authorized so a split could come at any time but the Company has a long history of announcing splits at BoD meetings. Going forward, the stock has light support at $75, with additional support at $73.50. Set hard stops at $73.50 to prevent additional losses. Resistance is $81 and then $85. Look for a bounce off of $75 or a move above $81 on volume of 10 million shares by midday to initiate new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before open new positions. Plan to exit in the session following a split announcement or if the stock trades below $73.50 as we will drop this play at that point.


Picked on May 9th @ $82.12
Change since picked -5.31


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

GILTF - Gilat Satellite Networks $71.94 +0.75 (-10.06)

Despite today's bounce, GILTF is still trading below our stop which was set at $73. The weak market yesterday caused GILTF to slip back into a downtrend. We do not want to risk a test of very major support all the way down to November's base sitting in the high $50's. Volume was strong during yesterday's selling, which is another sign that there is not too much interest in this stock right now.


Picked on May 4th @ $84.50

Profit/Loss = -11.50 (-14%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $73.00)
Best Profit = 0.00 (0%)



JNPR - Juniper Networks Inc. $148.00 -8.38 (-45.38) May Day May Day! Juniper Networks spiraled through our stop on Wednesday, which we had established at $169.88. JNPR, along with many other Internet related stocks were no match for the varsity level selling in the NASDAQ. Negative volume more than doubled to 7.3 million shares. Our stop on JNPR, like many others stocks was hit within the first hour of trading on Wednesday. Thursday an article in Red Herring cited JNPR as being overvalued along with a few others in that field including Cisco; not much help after Wednesday's selling. JNPR is splitting its stock 2:1 on June 16th. This will be the company's 2nd stock split. We will continue to monitor the stock for trading opportunities prior to the split and will advise you accordingly. Perhaps after next Tuesday's FOMC meeting, we will be presented with another entry point.


Picked on April 27th @ $208.94 

Profit/Loss = -39.06 (-19%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $169.88)
Best Profit = +18.69 (+9%)



TXN - Texas Instruments, Inc. $140.00 +7.12 (-13.81)

Hey y'all were fixin to sell-off! That was the apparent theme for Texas Instruments on Wednesday. The semiconductor sector was especially heavy hit, down better than 8% for the day on Wednesday. Texas Instruments was not overlooked as selling triggered our stop at $138 within minutes of the market's open. Bearish volume roared in at 7.3 million shares, almost a 50% increase compared to its daily average volume. TXN is now less than 2 weeks away from its 2:1 stock split scheduled for 5/23. Thursday we did see some interest come back into chip stocks. We will watch to see if there are any plays ahead of the split and will advise you accordingly. The upcoming split on May 23rd will be the company's 6th.


Picked on May 4th @ $155.50 

Profit/Loss = -17.50 (-11%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $138.00)
Best Profit = +4.94 (+3%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

AMAT - Applied Materials $85.25 +0.62(-16.63)

Applied Materials announced earnings on Wednesday night. The Company met earnings expectations but came in well below the whisper number. They did not announce a split either. All of this is irrelevant to us because we exited before the announcement on Wednesday before the close. If you are still in AMAT, we recommend setting tight stops under $84 (that's the 100-dma). If it holds, you may have some good upside potential since the stock is near the bottom of a trading range.


Picked on Apr 30th @ $101.81

Profit/Loss = -17.18 (-17.8%) (Dropped at Wednesday's close)
Best Profit = +2.94 (+3%)



AMD - Advanced Micro Devices $87.75 +7.81 (-4.25)

Advanced Micro Devices was caught in the wave of selling that dominated the market on Wednesday. Our stop, which was set for 79.88, was hit within the first hour of trading and thus we are dropping AMD for now. Negative volume increased Wednesday to 6.9 million shares, up 33% from average and the stock closed below the 20-dma for the first time since late February. We will be watching the stock in advance of the May 25th shareholders meeting and will advise you if the company announces a stock split. Semiconductor stocks and AMD in particular had a nice bounce on Thursday with Intel leading the pack, so we will watch AMD for a future opportunity to add it to our list.


Picked on April 16th @ $66.00 

Profit/Loss = +13.88 (+21%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $79.88)
Best Profit = +26.88 (+41%)



CMGI - CMGI Inc. $55.63 +2.25 (-9.63)

We did not know how bad yesterday's sell off was going to be. We tried to set a stop that would protect us from a severe drop. We are out of this play at $54.50 as CMGI still needs to consolidate before making a solid move higher. Today's bounce may indicate that we have reached a bottom in the shares of this Internet incubator and we will continue to monitor the stock's progress. A bounce rally to $61 seems possible for those of you still following the stock.


Picked on April 27th @ $66.19

Profit/Loss = -11.69 (-18%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $54.50)
Best Profit = +8.94 (+14%)



CRA - Celera Genomics Group $80.88 -1.43 (-8.62)

An adverse reaction, that is how one could describe the movement in Biotech companies on Wednesday. CRA was not singled out in the selling, the entire Biotech Index (BTK) was down 5% on the day. We were stopped out of CRA at $78.00 which was our designated stop early in the afternoon on Wednesday, on less than average volume of 921K shares. The stock did manage to stay above the 200-dma. We are still optimistic about the Biotech Sector after some life came back into those stocks Thursday. Thursday, scientists for CRA were making a presentation about the company at the Cold Spring Harbor Scientific Meeting in Maryland. If the results of the meeting bode well for the stock we may add CRA back to our list in the near future.


Picked on May 7th @ $89.50 

Profit/Loss = -11.50 (-13%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $78.00)
Best Profit = +7.00 (+8%)



EMLX - Emulex Corp. $49.00 +2.25 (-13.50)

EMLX continued to go backwards after failing to attempt to close the gap that is 20 points higher. Despite a strong product mix and a solid looking future, somebody out there is selling EMLX to raise cash to possibly buy something else that is perceived to have better prospects. We had to stop out at $48.88 to avoid the possibility of a retest of the April lows down near $35, which would have been a disastrous loss. The stock is very oversold but we are going to wait and see if it can consolidate for awhile before renewing our interest.


Picked on May 4th @ $62.63

Profit/Loss = -17.74 (-28%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $44.88)
Best Profit = +3.76 (+6%)



LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $58.66 +5.28 (-5.22)

We waited and waited, but still no split. Then on Wednesday, LSCC triggered our stops at $54 on its way down. On Tuesday, we said that we would drop this play if it falls below $54 so we are closing out this play tonight. If you still have open positions on LSCC, we recommend placing tight stops at $57 and looking for an exit tomorrow.


Picked on Apr 23rd @ $62.94

Profit/Loss = -8.94 (-14%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $54.00)
Best Profit = +6.87 (+11%)



PMCS - PMC Sierra Inc. $147.00 +7.81 (-33.00)

Houston we have a problem! On Wednesday many highflying semiconductor stocks were experiencing the gravitational pull of sellers and PMCS was no exception. Starting with the first tick of the day the negative sentiment dominated PMCS, hitting out stop at $149 within the first few minutes of trading. Huge negative volume almost tripled to 13.8 million shares as institutional block trades flooded the market. Additionally, PMCS closed below the 100-dma for the first time since the April lows. PMCS has now slipped farther away from its split territory up around $170. A glimmer of hope shined through on Thursday with some interest coming back to the sector. We will continue to watch PMCS for future opportunities and advise you at that time.


Picked on April 27th @ $182.62 

Profit/Loss = -33.62 (-18%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $149.00)
Best Profit = +16.38 (+9%)



XLNX - Xilinx $59.44 +3.69 (-9.44)

This is definitely one stop that we are not happy about. XLNX is an outstanding company that just happened to get caught up in some major selling yesterday. Do not be surprised if you see this stock back on our play list soon. Capital preservation is our most important mantra, and it was impossible to predict how far XLNX was going to drop after failing to hold support.


Picked on April 25th @ $70.38

Profit/Loss = -11.38 (-16%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $59.00)
Best Profit = +4.62 (+7%)



YHOO - Yahoo! $125.31 +6.42 (-0.38)

Yahoo! finally broke through its 20-dma on Thursday. Unfortunately, it fell to $112.50, well below our stops, on Wednesday. As we stated on Tuesday, we would close this play if the stock trades below $114. So we are dropping YHOO at the stop price of $114. If you didn't get out yet, we recommend setting tight stops at $120. The stock may trade higher if the market rallies, but otherwise it appears that consolidation near $120 will continue. The company is holding annual shareholder meeting tomorrow, so you may get lucky with a split announcement but don't count on it. The old "sell on strength" rules applies here.


Picked on Apr 18th @ $126.69

Profit/Loss = -12.69 (-10%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $114.00)
Best Profit = +9.31 (+7%)


 


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