Market Commentary

Software Support

Like every other index, the Software Index (GSO.X) is sitting right at a key support level.

GSTI Software Index Daily Chart

210 has been the proverbial line in the sand for the Software Index. The more times a support level is touched, the more significant it becomes, and this particular support level is undergoing its fourth test. If and when 210 is lost, support still lingers at 200 and 190. If it were up to Sieble Systems (NASD:SEBL), we would plunge through those levels today.

Siebel Systems Point and Figure Chart

Siebel Systems is the leading Nasdaq-100 loser, down $4.10 today, but at least it's $1 off its lows. The drop is on no real news other than the release of Oracle's new 9i database that works with competitors' software. Regardless, today's drop has done some technical damage. Since mid-May, SEBL has been banging its head against the bearish resistance line. Any dips found enough buying interest at $44 to bolster prices. Just like a bar chart, the more times a support level is tested on a point and figure chart the more significant it becomes, and today's quadruple bottom sell signal doesn't bode well. Buyers no longer had enough interest in buying the stock on a dip to $44, and supply has taken over. SEBL now rests at the psychological round number of $40, and a decline of one more box would give a spread triple bottom sell signal.

Jeffrey Canavan