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Split Candidate Play Updates
Sunday December 03, 2000

ADP - Automatic Data Processing $64.94 (-3.75)

Automatic Data Processing (please note the symbol change to ADP from AUD, effective December 1st) is the leading provider of employee services to companies around the world. The company handles payroll, retirement accounts and other critical functions of employee management for their clients. Due to this strong and profitable business, ADP has become a favorite core holding among many institutions. ADP does have a consistent history of announcing 2:1 splits when the stock reaches the mid $70's price level. Technically, the stock is at a critical juncture. On Friday the stock dipped below its 50-DMA just under $65.00. If considering a new position in ADP, it might behoove you to wait to see if the stock firms up early next week. We are getting close to our stop of $64 and will see if ADP can stage a turnaround. Other technical indicators, such as the OBV and the MACD, have confirmed this weakness. If we are stopped, the stock may eventually find support at $61.00. If the support holds, and we avoid the stop, the stock should find resistance at its all time high of $69.94.


Picked on November 19th @ $67.81
Change since picked -2.87



AXF - AXA Financial Inc. $55.13 (+0.38)

AXA Financial took a breather on Friday just one day after achieving a new 52-week high. AXA has approximately $400 billion in assets under management and is one of the world 's premier financial service organizations because of its strong brands. AXA Financial is a member of the global AXA Group, which has operations in approximately 60 countries and has more than $900 billion in assets under management. Besides having a strong corporate history the company continues to impress Wall Street with their earnings. For the past 5 quarters in a row the company has exceeded expectations. It announced a stock split around current levels in 1999 and we are looking for a repeat performance in the not too distant future. Earnings are scheduled for February and might be the right time for such an announcement. Looking at the chart of AXF, we note that as of Friday's close support can be found at $55.00. Resistance will likely pose a threat at the 5-dma at $55.60 and Thursday's new high of $56.31. New position opportunities might present themselves if the stock can make an assault on resistance with volume exceeding the 3-month average of 2.1 million shares. We will keep our protective stop just below support at $53.00. Please review all our stop position at our IN PLAY section.


Picked on November 30th @ $56.31
Change since picked -1.18



BMET - Biomet $36.69 (-1.72)

Biomet is a medical equipment company that concentrates on the field of orthopedics. Their multi-faceted product line includes surgical equipment, general orthopedic treatment equipment and even dental implants. Shares of Biomet have done an excellent job of sidestepping the NASDAQ disaster. The stock is now trading at a level that previously has inspired management to announce a split. Biomet's last split announcement was announced in early July when the stock was trading at $38.00. The 3:2 split was made payable in early August. In recent weeks, Biomet has been strong enough to establish new all-time highs. The most recent new high occurred on November 21st at $40.38. Recently, the stock has been pulling back and on Friday the stock went back to test its 50-DMA of $35.63. This price should provide near term support. We have set our stop at $33.00 to avoid a major downdraft in the stock. Looking at the indicators, the MACD is clearly in decline and needs to reverse course for us to regain confidence in this play. The OBV remains strong, even though it is currently going sideways. We would like to see this indicator resume its up trend. Earnings are due on December 14th and, if we are not stopped out, we will exit this position before the earnings announcement.


Picked on October 31st @ $36.19
Change since picked +0.50



CTAS - Cintas Corporation $49.88 (-1.73)

CTAS has recently found growth through an expansion strategy entailing a tailored catalog to its client base. Ending the week lower, CTAS pulled back on Friday to close just below previous support at $50. However, the stock is still in a relatively good position to recovery should we see a solid bounce from current levels on good volume. If a reversal does unfold, expect to see opposition arise at the recent high of $52.91 and higher up at $55. One interesting characteristic of the stock is that it tends to have an inverse relationship to the broader market. When the market declines, CTAS tends to advance. With that said, look for weakness in the broader markets, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPX), to give shares a boost to higher levels. Additionally, remember to confirm entries when good volume of 1 million shares or better can follow an advance above resistance levels. On the flip side, look for recent highs at $49, backed up by the 20-dma of $49 to provide support. A fall below this level will likely trigger our stop of $48.50, so keep a close watch on any moves below $49.


Picked on November 24th @ $51.61
Change since picked -1.73



D - Dominion Resources $59.25 (-1.06)

Northeastern utility holding company Dominion Resources has been struggling for the past two sessions. On Friday, shares of Dominion traded to an intra-day low of $58.31 before bouncing off of the 50-dma on volume of 727,200 shares. Friday's session was a bit of setback because Dominion fell below support at $59 (last week's 6 million share offering price) and it closed below the 20-dma for the first time in two weeks. The stock is also feeling some pressure from profit taking within the energy sector. Shares are currently in split territory but the company does not currently have enough shares for a split. However, the next BoD could bring an authorization of more shares and a split announcement. Dominion's last split announcement came out of a BoD when the stock was trading in the $45-55 range. For now, support is the 20-dma at $58 with additional support at the November 8 intra-day low of $57.50. Resistance is now at $60, just above Friday's intra-day high. Heavier resistance remains at Thursday's intra-day high of $61.19. Traders should plan to open new positions on a bounce off of $58 or a move above $60 on volume greater than 500,000 shares by midday. Our stops remain at $57.50.


Picked on November 19th @ $62.69
Change since picked -3.44



DGX - Quest Diagnostics $114.81 (+10.44)

Quest Diagnostics is the leading provider of gene-based medical testing equipment, information and services in the US. Shares of DGX traded to an intra-day high of $115 on heavy volume of 831,000 shares. The move comes following news that UBS Warburg chief global strategist Edward Kerschner had added the stock to Warburg's Highlighted Stocks list. As far a split announcement, DGX has enough shares for a split with 46.2 million shares outstanding and 100 million shares authorized. A split announcement could come at their next BoD or with their next earnings release, expected at the end of January. Until then, support is the 50-dma at $111.06 with additional support at the 5-dma of $109.13. DGX is sitting just below major resistance at $115. A breakout above $115 could send the stock to $119.50, the November 9 intra-day high, before DGX runs into further resistance. Traders should be looking for a bounce off of $111 or a move above $115 on midday volume of at least 350,000 shares to start new plays. Our stops are holding steady at $108 to protect profits.


Picked on November 24th @ $104.38
Change since picked +10.44



DHR - Danaher Corporation $65.25 (+0.56) Despite the recent concerns with slowing sales in DHR's tools and component businesses, the company announced on Friday that it feels confident in First Call consensus estimates of $0.59 a share for the fourth quarter. Citing continued strength in the process/environmental control segment, the company is also anticipated to grow earnings by 17% over the next 3 years. Ending the week with a run to new 52-week highs, DHR was given a lift from bullish comments from the company's investor meeting with Lehman Brothers. As we noted in our previous write-up, we would need to close above the 52-week high of $65.81 in order to confirm a breakout. Since this did not occur, shares may still remain caught in consolidation near $65. With this in mind, we'll anticipate for resistance to further challenge the stock at $65.81 (recent high) and further up at the new high of $67.31. The $70 mark should pose a more difficult challenge, so be prepared to take profits at this level. Advances through resistance on good volume of 430 thousand shares or more will reinforce momentum and will provide potential entry points. For support, we'll look for previous resistance at $65 to hold as initial support. Further down, good consolidation at the $63 and $62 levels will help defend our stop of $60. Additionally, entry points will come when good mid-day volume of 215 thousand shares or better can confirm a hard bounce from either of these levels.


Picked on November 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +1.75



MRK - Merck & Company $90.63 (+1.19)

Merck finished the week with a small gain in the face of high market volatility. The pharmaceutical behemoth traded as low as $89.13 on Friday. Volume came in at 7.5 million shares, much higher than the three-month average of 5.8 million shares. Merck is currently in our cross hairs as a split candidate. The company has 2.3 billion shares outstanding and 5.4 billion shares authorized, more than enough for a 2:1 split. With a strong history of previous stock splits, the only thing we need now is an announcement from the BOD. We are looking for an announcement with earnings in January. Earlier in the week analysts from Goldman Sachs and CS First Boston upgraded the stock to "Recommended List" and "buy" respectively. The technical picture looks like this: support can now be measured at $90.00 and then at $88.00. Moving averages are not reinforcing these support levels, so consider them light. Resistance is up at the 10-dma at $91.35 and the 5-dma at $92.50, and then the recent high of $96.69. Consider a quick pullback to a support level as a possible entry point if immediately followed by an up surge on good volume. Look for market confirmation coming from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index (DGX.X). We will keep our stop at $87.00 on this play.


Picked on November 28th @ $92.63
Change since picked -2.00



THC - Tenet Healthcare Corporation $41.25 (+1.00)

With a strong portfolio of hospitals, ranging from top teaching hospitals to facilities that are sole-providers for communities, THC has done a great job in preparing for future growth. Also, the government's national expenditures on health care are projected to nearly double to $2.2 trillion over the next 5 years. This growth potential is another reason why the health care sector has seen good capital inflows. As for the stock, a lack of follow through from Thursday's advance caused the stock to back into its previous consolidation range near $41. Strong support resides at this level in the form of a previous high and the convergence of the 5 and 10-dma's of $41.16 and $41.01, respectively. A bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which engulfs Thursday's price indicates that the stock may retest further support at the $40 mark before resuming its upward course. Should an advance to higher levels unfold, look for resistance at the all time high of $43.44 to be trailed by tougher challenges at the $45 and $50 levels. Trading volume of 2 million shares or better will confirm an advance to higher levels. Keep firm stops at $39.50 to protect against a reversal in trend and remember that $39.56 could still provide some support ahead of the stop. Consider confirming entries with strength in the S&P Health Care Index (HCX.X) prior to opening positions.


Picked on November 19th @ $42.44
Change since picked -1.19


 

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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