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Split Candidate Play Updates
Thursday November 30, 2000

AUD - Automatic Data Processing $66.00 -0.44 (-2.69)

Shares of Automatic Data Processing have slipped only a little despite the recent selling wave. AUD is one of the few remaining widely held high profile stocks that is near its all time highs. AUD is a provider of a huge list of employee services that helps its clients manage their payroll and other human resource responsibilities. AUD churned a bit today on average daily volume of 1.7 million shares. There is resistance at the old high of $69.31. However, we see solid support provided by the 50-DMA of $64.91. We have set our stop at $64.00, which gives the stock a little room to fall if support fails. The MACD has turned negative this week, which concerns us about the short term prospects for this play. Although the longer term trend is up, both the Money Flow and the OBV have rolled over indicating that AUD may have reached a short term top and could be in the midst of a correction. The pullback is tolerable, as long as the aforementioned support holds. The earnings report is not due until the middle of January. Therefore, the most likely exit scenario for us will be either through the use of our stop strategy or a split announcement. If AUD's correction ends and the stock can start to rally to new highs soon, you can find a trailing stop suggestion in our In Play section.


Picked on November 19th @ $67.81
Change since picked -1.81



BMET - Biomet $37.00 -2.00 (-1.41)

Biomet continues to impress with a stock that exhibits excellent long-term relative strength. There may be a chink in the armor, however, as the stock dropped a couple points late in the day after resisting the market's bear charge. Unfortunately, shares of this leading orthopedic equipment manufacturer dropped on its strongest volume of the day right into the close. It is possible, though, that traders were just selling anything they had a small profit in so they can buy some of the cratered big NASDAQ names.. As we remarked in our last write-up, BMET might stage a move if it dropped below support of $37.50. This happened today. Now the stock is looking at resistance at the 20-DMA of $37.88 and the 10-DMA of $37.72. Although our stop is all the way down at $33.00, one should definitely watch the support offered by the 50-DMA at $35.50. The MACD failed to issue a buy signal and remains in decline. On the plus side, OBV is still strong despite the increase in volume we saw during today's selling. The bottom line is that the stock needs to hold here or we will be in danger of seeing a more severe short-term correction. If we are not stopped out of this position, we look to exit just before the earnings release on December 14th.


Picked on October 31st @ $36.19
Change since picked +0.81



CTAS - Cintas Corporation $50.94 -1.14 (-0.67)

A broad based shift into the service industry along with the acquisition of Unitog, a uniform supplier, has greatly benefited Cintas and put the company back into a growth mode. The integration of Unitog, which was completed more than a year ahead of schedule, is already beginning to reap double-digit growth for the company. "The synergies created by combining our two organizations allow us to work more efficiently and serve our customers more effectively," said Chief Executive Officer Robert J. Kohlhepp. One thing is for certain, the stock continues to advance on good volume. Today, Cintas traded to an all time high of $52.91 before a late day pull back sent shares lower at the close. Although heavy volume of 1.85 million shares accompanied today's trading, Cintas' intra-day chart shows that much of volume came in as the stock was falling. This leads us to believe that more selling could come in early tomorrow, so we feel that the stock may be on route to a support at $50. Because of the psychological significance of this level and its confirmed support on the chart, be prepared for a buying opportunity should the stock reverse sharply from this level. Just lower, additional support lies at $49, braced by the 20-dma of $48.87. A fall below this level will likely encounter our stop of $48.50, so be prepared for any moves below $49. On the upside, continue to look for good buying on an advance above $52.91. Further up, the stock will likely be confronted with tougher opposition at the $55 and $60 marks. An extended run to these levels will likely need good buying to accompany the shares higher, so look for volume to meet or exceed 860 thousand shares on the breakout.


Picked on November 24th @ $51.61
Change since picked -0.67



D - Dominion Resources $60.00 -0.44 (-0.31)

Dominion Resources was under some pressure on Thursday as energy stocks sold off with the rest of the market. Shares of Dominion, a northeastern utility holding company, traded to an intra-day low of $59.31 before bouncing back to close at $60 on average volume. The stock is still working off its 6 million share offering from last week, but we did see some improvement, as the stock was able to trade above $61 for the first time since the offering. From a technical perspective, Dominion has support at the 20-dma, currently at $59.59, with stronger support at the 50-dma, now up to $58. Resistance has moved up to Thursday's intra-day high of $61.19 and then $62.69, the November 17 high. Traders should be on the lookout for a bounce off of $59.59 or a move above $61.19 on midday volume of at least 500,000 shares to start new plays. We are keeping our stops at $57.50 as protection.


Picked on November 19th @ $62.69
Change since picked -2.69



DGX - Quest Diagnostics $112.38 +9.63 (+8.00)

Quest Diagnostics, the nation's leading provider of gene-based medical testing, information and services, had a stellar session Thursday following news that it had introduced HCV DupliType testing, which provides subtyping for two distinct genomic regions of the hepatitis C virus. This innovation allows for the detection of a broader spectrum of subtypes and the rapid and reliable typing of patient samples. Shares of DGX traded to an intra-day high of $114 on light volume of 311,000 shares. Still, Thursday's action was especially encouraging because the stock broke through its 50-dma and closed above its downward trend line. For now, DGX has support at Tuesday's intra-day high of $109.63 with stronger support at the 20-dma of $105.19. Resistance has moved up to Thursday's intra-day high of $114 and then to the November 9 intra-day high of$120. Traders may consider entry points on a bounce off of $109.63 or a move above $114 on volume greater than 350,000 shares by midday. We have moved our stops up to $108 to lock in our gains.


Picked on November 26th @ $104.38
Change since picked +8.00



DHR - Danaher Corporation $65.19 +0.19 (+0.50)

Fueled by its new product success, Danaher continues to increase mechanics hand tools sales and increase its market share. The high-end segment of the hand tool market is bolstered by the Armstrong and Matco brands, which have grown at a 16% annual growth rate over the past two years. Solid brand names, combined with proprietary technology and a good management team will help to ensure DHR's future success. But, as for our play, the stock continues to be challenged by unyielding resistance near the $65 mark. A strong advance above this level with a close over the 52-week high of $65.81 will indicate that the stock is ready for another leg up. Expect the all time high of $69 to pose a more difficult challenge, along with the $70 and $75 levels. Given the current volatility within the market, each of these resistance levels could present a good place to lock in gains if DHR bounces sharply from resistance. On the other hand, a sharp bounce from support could present us with good entry levels at lower prices. With that said, we feel that recent highs along the $64 mark will likely present some degree of support. We'll expect to see a better base develop at $63, bolstered by recent lows and the 20-dma of $63.08. To sustain a fall below this level, firmer support should lie at previous consolidation at $62. Let good mid-day volume of 215 thousand shares or better confirm rebounds off support and remember to keep stops at $60 to protect against further weakness.


Picked on November 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +1.69



MRK - Merck & Company $92.69 -2.19 (+3.25)

On Thursday, shares of pharmaceutical giant Merck shed 2 percent of its value after hitting another new high on volume of 9.1 million shares, twice the average volume. However, for most of the day, Merck traded in positive territory, trading as high as $96.69. Wednesday brought another upgrade from Goldman Sachs, so the consensus from analysts is encouraging. We initiated split candidate coverage of Merck recently because the stock appears to be reaching split levels. Intra day, Merck kissed off a new high of $96.69 before slipping the rest of the day. As of Thursday's close, Merck appears to have support at the 5-dma at $92.25 and the 20-dma at $90.60. Resistance could come at today's intra-day high of $96.69 and then the century mark. Look for some resurrection of life in the broad markets before engaging a new play with Merck. A bounce off support with momentum in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index (DGX) might make a good entry point. We will post our stop loss at $87.00 for now. Please review our IN PLAY section for any changes to our stop on this stock.


Picked on November 28th @ $92.63
Change since picked +0.06



THC - Tenet Healthcare Corporation $42.56 +0.50 (+2.31)

The strength of Tenet's extensive hospital networks has given the company greater leverage in contract negotiations with payers, which has enabled the company to profit from better pricing and terms with HMO's. Over the past year, the company has seen some of its best commercial pricing trends from the last several years. Steady growth in its core operations has undoubtedly played a significant role in the performance of the stock. Climbing another half point on the day, shares did manage to set another all time high with an intra-day advance to $43.50. Volume came in exceeding high at $3.78 million shares traded. As the NASDAQ falls, health care and drug stocks will tend to generally advance higher. If this can continue, we'll look for initial resistance to come at today's intra-day high ($43.50), with a more difficult challenge higher up at $45 and $50. Look to either of the two later resistance levels to take profits, should light volume accompany the advance or should we see strength come into the technology sector. Support is the 41 mark, which is bolstered by both the 5-dma of $41.16 and the 10-dma of $41.01. We would look for THC to bounce sharply from any of the above-mentioned support levels on good mid-day volume of 1 million shares or better prior to opening any positions.


Picked on November 19th @ $42.44
Change since picked +0.13


 

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Copyright 2001 SplitTrader.com

Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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