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Split Candidate Play Updates
Tuesday November 21, 2000

AUD - Automatic Data Processing $68.38 -0.50 (+0.57)

Automatic Data Processing is a highly respected name in corporate America. The company is the world's leading provider of integrated payroll services, benefits administration and general human resource services. AUD Shareholders have been richly rewarded thanks to the company's ability to maximize its profitable business plan. After an extended rally that began in August, AUD's share price is approaching historical levels. The company's last split occurred in December 1998. At the time the split was announced, the stock was trading at $81.94. When AUD reports its earnings in mid-January, it is expected to post profits of $0.36, which would be five pennies ahead of the earnings reported in the same period a year ago. Stable growth is critically important if you want to attract any of sideline cash. AUD established a new all time high today, as the stock broke above a double top. The previous high had been established back in September. Although this is a bullish development, we were a little disappointed that the stock pulled back and failed to enjoy any follow through. Nevertheless, the trend is one of the strongest in the market. The MACD is healthy, as are the OBV and the Money Flow. If we can get any sort of holiday rally tomorrow, AUD could possibly make another new high. Resistance is the high at $69.31. We see major support at the 50-DMA of $64.38. Therefore, we have placed our stop just below at $64.00. We will exit this position if there is a split announcement. Hopefully, we can get this anticipated rally and utilize our stop loss strategy. Our suggestion for a stop loss can be found in our In Play section.


Picked on November 19th @ $67.81
Change since picked +0.57



BMET - Biomet $38.13 +2.00 (-0.56)

Fortunately, the recent biotech correction has not extended to the medical equipment stocks. In fact, Biomet made a new high today of $40.25 in the early going. However, a lack of buying conviction in the overall market pulled the stock back. Biomet has been a bit volatile recently. In fact, the stock actually dipped below its 20-DMA of $37.09. This trend line has been providing excellent support and it should continue to provide the support. Our current stop is $33.00, which is below the 50-DMA of $34.59 and just below the stock's 21-day low of $33.31. Despite the new high today, the MACD is still negative. Money Flow is also in danger of starting to roll over. The OBV is slipping a little, but it is still decidedly positive. The best technical news of the week has been the relief of overbought pressure as indicated by the RSI. Resistance is currently the new high of $40.25. A convincing close above this level and the stock could accelerate its uptrend. Earnings are due to be released on December 14th, so it's possible we could get an earnings related run for another two weeks. If we are not stopped out with either our a trailing stop, we will exit this position either just before the earnings announcement or following a split announcement.


Picked on October 31st @ $36.19
Change since picked +1.94



D - Dominion Resources $59.50 -2.69 (-3.19)

Dominion Resources ran into some selling pressure on Tuesday following news that it had sold 6 million shares at $59 to Merrill Lynch (MER). Dominion, a utility holding company, also said that earnings were on track to meet or exceed its earnings targets for fiscal 2000 and 2001. Unfortunately, the street had expected Dominion to handily beat those targets. Shares of Dominion gapped down on Tuesday, hitting an intra-day low of $59.31 before bouncing off of the 20-dma to a close of $59.50 on two times average daily volume. For now, support is holding at the 20-dma of $59.25, with additional support at the 50-dma currently at $57.63. Resistance has come in at the November 16 high of $60.75 and then November 17 of $62.69. We would like to see a move above $60.75 or a retest of support at $59.25 on midday volume greater than 500,000 shares before we open new positions. We are leaving our stops at $57.50 to minimize potential losses.


Picked on November 19th @ $62.69
Change since picked -3.19



DHR - Danaher Corporation $64.06 +0.50 (+0.19)

To keep profit momentum on the rise, DHR is planning to lower its cost through an e-procurement program of buying and selling products over the Internet. The company is looking to shave 10% off its $800 million annual budget for purchasing materials. If the company can achieve this objective, then it anticipates earning to advance by 20% and 15% in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Currently, shares continue to battle stiff opposition at the $65 mark, which represents the key resistance level for making additional gains. However, a close above this level will only be significant if we can get good volume (430K shares) to confirm the break. If this scenario does unfold, then look for the $70 mark, near all time highs to present a stiff challenge to additional gains. Consider taking profits at this level should DHR make a quick advance on lackluster volume. For support, the stock may have gotten a bounce from our previously mentioned base at $63.13 at the open. The $63 mark should continue to offer a good initial support base. We'll look for the next level of support to come at the 10-dma of $62.75 and further down at the 20-dma of $61.43. Set stops at $60 to protect against further declines. Use sharp bounces from support to signal potential entry levels, when good volume can confirm the bounce. Also, look to the Dow Industrial Average (DOW) for an indication of strength or weakness in the stock.


Picked on November 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +0.56



THC - Tenet Healthcare Corporation $40.31 +0.56 (-2.13)

Tenet Healthcare has been on a strong run after recent Medicare news from Washington could give the sector a boost. For the past three years, the U.S. Government has been decreasing Medicare reimbursement rates. In May of next year, the healthcare industry is expected to receive relief from these lower rates, which is expected to add 10% to THC's bottom line. As for our play, THC pulled back from Friday's breakout, as lackluster buying throughout the healthcare sector has kept shares trading lower this week. However, this could be the buying opportunity we've been waiting for. Today's intra-day pullback to $40.13 reconfirmed good resistance at the previous highs of $40 and could represent an excellent area to pick up shares. With that said, we'll look for additional entry points should THC bounce sharply from this level on good mid-day volume of 1 million shares. We'll set a firm stop below these levels at $39.50 to protect us against a quick trend reversal. On the upside, an advance through Friday's all time high of $43 will continue to be our initial gauge for a confirmed breakout. If this does unfold, we'll look for THC to be challenged further up at $45 and then $50. An extended run to these levels will likely need heavy buying to accompany the stock higher, so look for volume to meet or exceed 2 million shares on the breakout. Keep in mind that an overbought reading on the Stochastic oscillator might also suggest that the stock could have a few more days of consolidation prior to breaking out. Consider reconfirming entries with strength in the S&P Health Care Index (HCX).


Picked on November 19th @ $42.44
Change since picked -2.13


 

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Copyright 2001 SplitTrader.com

Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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