AHP - American Home Products, Inc. $60.13 (-2.93)
American Home Products finished the week down on average trading volume. The shift in the broad markets took its toll on AHP, as the stock gradually slid all week long. Drugs took a back seat to the techs all week as institutional money played musical chairs, trying to find the most undervalued sectors. The company, which is best known for its pharmaceutical sales as well as agricultural products, was not spared losses, despite some positive news events. This week AHP announced the conversion of a 450 million dollar convertible subordinated note into shares of Immunex (IMNX) stock. AHP seems to have found a support at around $60.00 for now. However, we are drawing very close to our stop loss level and we'll need to see some positive interest on Monday. As mentioned, AHP has light support at $60.00, followed by the 50-dma at $57.40. Resistance levels are now encountered at the 20-dma at $61.15, the 10-dma at $62.64 and finally the $65.00 level. If you were considering opening a new position on AHP, it would be wise to wait for the stock to give a definitive sign of a bullish bounce off support. Look for increased volume above the average of 3.2 million. Recent breakouts on AHP have come with volume exceeding 4 million shares. We should expect no less from the stock now. Be very careful of low trading volume as the stock approaches resistance levels, this may be a sign of a false rally attempt. Use the support and resistance levels in gauging your decision for new plays. We will keep our stop at $59.25. AHP last split at around $90 a share in 1998, so we are not quite to split run territory yet. However, earnings are coming up in January and if the drug sector continues to lead and AHP breaches $80 a share, a split becomes very probable. Please review our IN PLAY section for further updates on our stop orders.
Picked on October 26th at $63.50
Change since picked -3.37
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BMET - Biomet $36.81 (+2.00)
Biomet has built a global presence in the field of orthopedics. Electrical bone growth stimulators, general surgical instruments, arthroscopy products, spinal and dental implants as well as bone substitutes are all products developed and marketed by Biomet. Medical stocks have been trying to lead the market out of the October malaise. One reason why these stocks are moving is because many of them have solid earnings and Biomet is not an exception. The Company is expected to report profits of $0.29 on December 13th. Biomet has already split this year but the share price is right back to where it was in July when the split was announced. Therefore, another 3:2 split announcement is certainly not out of the question. An establishment of a new high at $39.81 highlighted Biomet's week. The new high is now short term resistance, as the stock pulled back a bit from this level. The pullback is probably healthy on a technical basis, as long as the stock does not fall below the 10-DMA at $35.25. The MACD is positive and continues to try and renew an up trend. In our last report, we noticed that the RSI had touched the top end of its range. Therefore, we were not surprised by the small pullback. A little relief from this overbought situation could give the stock the room it needs to make new highs again this week. Although OBV is looking pretty solid, Money Flow appears to have leveled. We would really like to see the next rally be accompanied with some more solid volume. If we are not stopped out of this play, we will exit either before the earnings release or after a split announcement.
Picked on October 31st @ $36.19
Change since picked +0.62
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CEFT - Concord EFS $41.81 (+3.63)
Concord EFS offers authorization and processing services for credit cards and ATM cards. On Friday, Lehman Brothers raised their target price on CEFT from $50 to $60 and reiterated their "buy" rating. This did very little for the stock. Shares of CEFT fell on the news, trading below the 5-dma at $41.63. The stock hit an intra-day low of $41.13 before bouncing back to close above the 5-dma on average volume. CEFT may need to test support at the $40 mark before it moves higher. In the meantime, support is the 5-dma at $41.63 with stronger support at the 10-dma, now up to $40. Resistance remains steady at Thursday's open of $43.06 and then the all-time high of $44.13. We plan to start new plays on a bounce off of $40 or a move above $43.06 on volume greater than 1 million shares by midday. We are keeping our stops at $37. CEFT last announced a split at $36.69 a share back in August of 1999. We are therefore well into split territory. CEFT has a history of announcing splits at Board of Directors meetings. In scanning resources for BoD meetings, CEFT doesn't appear to have scheduled one for this month. This does not necessarily mean that they can't announce out of the blue. They have enough authorized shares to go through with a 3:2 split (their last 6 splits were 3:2). As always, we will keep you abreast of any announcement that could bring more momentum into the stock.
Picked on October 31st @ $41.31
Change since picked +0.50
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IGT - International Game Technology $36.88 (-0.81)
International Game Technology designs computerized casino gaming machines and slot machines. The stock held its ground on Friday, trading as high as $37 on light volume. IGT appears to be gaining strength into its earnings release, expected on November 7 before the bell. Since the Company has already pre-announced an earnings surprise so there may not be much more upside on this play. Going forward, there is support at Friday's intra-day low of $36.31 with additional support at $36, just below the 20-dma. Resistance is unchanged at the 10-dma at $37.19 and then the October 30 intra-day high of $37.94. We are going to keep our stops at $35.50. We plan to exit by Monday's closing bell. Although IGT has split at these levels before, its more recent split history points to a split level around $60 a share. We therefore don't expect a split announcement to come with earnings, but again, it is possible with the amount of shares authorized.
Picked on October 10th @ $34.88
Change since picked +2.00
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LU - Lucent Technologies Incorporated $24.31 (+3.00)
A wireless infrastructure could become the future of telecommunications, but behind all of this new technology, it's the network that makes wireless communications work. The quality of the network will determine the quality of the wireless service and LU's wireless network is well established for this trend. Aside from product shortages in other business lines, LU's wireless division is currently growing over 100% a year. Ending the week with gains, shares have slowly ascended to the top of their trading range ($20.00-$24.50) and could be ready for an advance above $25. This will be our initial signal of a breakout, but we'll want to reconfirm entries when good daily volume of 23 million shares or more are traded. From this point, recent lows at $28 should be our next challenge ahead of tougher opposition at $30. However, we want to point out that this week's advances have pulled the stochastic oscillator into overbought territory, so we may see the shares pullback prior to advancing. Should this scenario unfold, we'll look for recent lows at $23 to be bolstered by the 20-dma of $23.06. Just lower, the 10-dma ($22.12) improves support at $22 and could be our final support base ahead of our stop at $20.50. November has been a historically good month for technology stocks, so be ready for buying opportunities. The NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) may give clues to price direction, so consider using this before to opening new positions.
Picked on November 2nd @ $24.19
Change since picked +0.13
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MEDI - MedImmune $68.50 (+8.31)
MedImmune is one of those rare biotechnology companies that has viable products in addition to some very promising research. Revenues from established products give the Company the necessary cash flows to further their research. It is a balancing act of sorts, but MedImmune is likely attracting investors because it is currently profitable and has the potential to become very profitable with products in its pipeline. MedImmune concentrates its research efforts upon fighting infectious diseases, including some associated with organ transplantation and also cancer. According to Zack's, a consensus among analysts following the Company is calling for profits of $0.35 when this quarter ends. The earnings will be announced on January 17th. If the Company meets estimates it will be a nice increase over the $0.23 profits the Company enjoyed in the same period a year ago. Friday was an "inside" day for the shares of MedImmune. This means that the stock traded above Thursday's low but below Thursday's high. We like this development, especially the fact that the previous day's low held. We were a little concerned that the stock may be a little extended in the very short term. The stock did close just below the 50-DMA at $69.63. Therefore, some traders may wait for the stock to cross above this moving average again before really going after the stock this week. The MACD continues to rise from a well-defined bottom, which makes the longer term picture look pretty good. We also like the RSI, which is telling us that the stock is a long way from being overbought, despite the recent rally. The one technical indicator that concerns us is the Money Flow, which is very poor. This indicator will have to improve if the stock is going to enjoy any sustained move. Our current stop is $64.50 and we will raise this stop if the stock can move higher this week.
Picked on November 2nd @ $70.13
Change since picked -1.63
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MO - Phillip Morris Cos. $35.00 (-1.69)
Philip Morris manufactures, markets and distributes a wide range of consumer products. On Friday, the stock traded lower on concerns that George W. Bush may lose the election. This is viewed as a negative for tobacco stocks. Shares of MO traded down to an intra-day low of $34.13. However, the stock made a comeback by the end of the day. Unfortunately, the election could be the main driver for MO and the tobacco sector over the next three days. The stock continues to make lower lows and lower highs but Friday's mid-session rebound was somewhat encouraging. For now, support is the 20-dma at $33.94 with stronger support at $33.13, the October 19 high. MO has resistance at the 10-dma at $36.00 and then Wednesday's intra-day high of $37.31. We would like to see a bounce off of $33.94 or a move above $36 on midday volume greater than 3.8 million shares before we open new plays. We are keeping our stops at $33 to minimize risk.
Picked on October 26th @ $36.00
Change since picked -1.00
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SBC - SBC Communications Inc. $57.19 (+0.88)
SBC Communications barely finished the week in the green, but is up almost 17% for the year. In an article released by Reuters News Service on Friday, a survey of the telecommunications industry revealed that the big companies probably won't see any recovery soon, but local service companies like SBC will see their businesses improve, as long-distance markets are opened up to competition. SBC also made headlines in California, where the company had been lobbying for increased rates for Internet phone services. A judge on the state Public Utilities Commission turned down a proposal by SBC and its local subsidiary Pacific Bell, to reverse an earlier decision to stop treating Internet calls as local traffic. On Friday, the stock flirted with the 10-dma at $55.90 where it bounced and moved higher for the day. Looking to the coming week, we'd like to see the stock move higher on greater volume. The average trading volume of 6.5 million shares was conquered nicely on Friday with 7.5 million shares changing hands. SBC is more than capable of producing volume over 10 million shares. Watch for support to hold at $55.90 and then down at the 20-dma at $53.50 and possibly as low at the half century mark. Resistance will be encountered at $58.00 and $59.00. Look for big moves up with support coming from the Telecom Sector (IXTC) as possible entry points for new plays. A quick bounce off a support level if immediately followed by a move higher might also warrant possibly opening a new play. We will hold our stop at $52.00 until further notice. Look for any updates or changes at our IN PLAY section.
Picked on October 29th @ $56.31
Change since picked +0.88
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