NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
None
NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
AFFX - Affymetrix $156.06 (+21.00)
Affymetrix is a worldwide leader in DNA chip technology. The
Company has developed and intends to establish its GeneChip
system as the platform of choice for acquiring, analyzing and
managing complex genetic information in order to improve the
diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of disease. AFFX sells their
products to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, academic
research centers and clinical reference laboratories. The stock
hit an all-time high of $327 on 2/25 in the height of the
genomics craze. Since then, shares of AFFX received a serious
haircut, trading as low as $84.63 on 4/17. The stock has now
formed a base and they are starting to rally again, making higher
lows for the last three weeks. There are two major genomics
conferences next week and we feel that now is the time to get
back into AFFX. The Company has scheduled its Annual Shareholder
Meeting for 6/8 at which time the shareholders will vote on an
increase in the number of authorized shares of Common Stock from
75 million to 200 million. We are looking for a split
announcement out of the meeting. They currently have 28 million
shares issued. Going forward, AFFX has support at $150 with
stronger support at the 5-dma, now at $145. Resistance is $160
and then $170. Use a bounce off of $150 or a move above $160 on
heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm market direction and
sector momentum before starting new plays. Plan to exit in the
session following a split announcement.
Picked on May 7th @ $156.06
Change since picked +0.00
| |
CPN - Calpine Corporation $98.75 (+7.25)
After our recent profitable play, we're back for more CPN!
Besides a strong uptrend for the stock, what brings us back to
CPN is how well its aggressive growth strategy continues to
produce solid results. With revenues expected to rise by 40% in
2000, you'll recognize that this is no ordinary utility company.
Investors have felt the same! Shares are once again trading in
pre-split territory and shareholders will vote to increase the
number of authorized shares from 100 million to 500 million at
the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 18th. With
63.2 million shares issued, an increase in authorized shares will
enable the company to split its stock 2:1. Is this sounding
familiar? We think so, and are anticipating a run up to the
shareholders announcement. Currently, the stock has continued to
trend higher, breaking distinctly through its 50-dma. A strong
trend, accompanied by good daily volume (650k or better),
suggests that prices may be on route to re-attaining their recent
highs ($123). We're looking for a break through resistance at the
century mark, when combined with good volume, to trigger our
initial entry. If this scenario does unfold and the trend stays
intact, then look for further opposition to come at the $110
level. Be sure to incorporate trailing stops to lock in gains. On
the flip side, good buying opportunities should come if prices
bounce sharply off support at the 50-dma ($93.04) or further down
at $90, propped by the 10-dma ($91.73). Look for strength in the
Utility sector to confirm entries. We'll plan to hold positions
through the shareholders meeting of May 18th, for a split release
to follow.
Picked on May 7th @ $98.75
Change since picked 0.00
| |
CRA - Celera Genomics Group $89.50 (+7.25)
"My Sharona" My Genomics? In the 1980's, a band from England
called The Knack produced a one-hit-wonder called "My Sharona".
Late last year, a shift occurred in the market and Biotech stocks
were the Pokemon of the day, but was this just a one-hit-wonder?
Last December, as Biotech companies were trading at astronomical
levels, Merrill Lynch created a basket of Biotech's called a
HOLDR (see write up on TXN), to help investors protect themselves
from the volatility associated with just owning one biotech
stock. So what is Genomics? Celera Genomics Group is in the
business of gene research integrated with computer technology,
which accelerates the research process. CRA engages in the
generation, sale and support of genomic information and related
software; the discovery, licensing and validation of proprietary
gene products; genetic markers, genetic variability, and related
consulting and R&D services. In April, the company announced
earnings with a loss of -.45 cents for the quarter; analysts had
expected a loss of .49 cents. The company currently has 52
million shares outstanding and 180 million authorized, plenty to
announce a stock split. After the March highs, CRA appears to
have found solid support at the $65 level and has been trading up
the last week. The stock closed Friday at the 5-dma that is now
near term support with the 10-dma at $80 as back up. Overhead,
the level to conquer is $90 and then the century mark. We would
like to see a new move to the upside come partnered with volume
over 2 million shares. Perhaps the upcoming Genomics conference
(two of them towards the latter part of this coming week) will
stir up some further interest. We encourage any new plays to be
accompanied by good volume and positive movements in both the
NASDAQ and the Biotech Index (BTX).
Picked on May 7th @ $89.50
Change since picked 0.00
| |
INCY - Incyte Pharmaceuticals $90.94 (+13.94)
Incyte provides genomic information tools including database
products, data management software tools, and micro array-based
gene expression services. The Company's database products offer
insights into genomics, helping scientists determine which genes,
both known and novel, are related to specific biological events
in normal and diseased states, designed to speed discovery and
development of genomic treatments and cures. Think of INCY as a
genomic infrastructure play. On 2/25, this stock hit an all-time
high of $289.06 but has fallen to a low of $57 on 4/4. Shares of
INCY have been basing for 3 weeks in the $65-$95 range. However,
there are two major biotech conferences next week and we feel
that this may the cure for this sector. Further away, INCY is
holding its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on June 5th, when the
shareholders will vote on a proposal to increase the number of
authorized shares from 75 million to 200 million. The company
currently has 28.5 million outstanding. We are looking for a
split announcement following the meeting, or in July when the
company announces earnings. On the technical side, the stock has
support at $87 with stronger support at the 5-dma, now at $83.
There is light resistance at $92. Additional resistance may come
in at $95 or the century mark. Use a bounce off of $87 or a move
above $95 to open new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume,
only in a rising market. Look for an exit in the next trading day
following a split announcement.
Picked on May 7th @ $90.94
Change since picked +0.00
| |
LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $103.75 (-14.25)
Lexington, Lex Luthor and Lexus. Based in Lexington Kentucky,
Lexmark International Group develops and manufactures laser,
inkjet and dot matrix printers for home and office use. The
company has achieved the global presence that Lex Luthor, played
by Gene Hackman in the movie Superman, never got; and if you had
invested in this company this time last year, you mat have very
well rewarded yourself with a new Lexus. On a split-adjusted
basis, LXK has more than doubled and maintained its very bullish
trend. After a brief respite, we are initiating coverage of LXK
in anticipation of a forth-coming stock split announcement. On
April 27th, the company met and voted to increase the number of
outstanding shares from 450 million to 900 million. Even so, the
company has enough authorized shares to effect a split. Of
special note is that during the recent decline, the stock held at
the $100 level as support, and has been channeling between $100-
$120 since. Volume caught our attention on Friday, increasing by
50% to 1.5 million shares, an anomaly in light of the record low
volume on the major indexes. We find this current level as an
excellent entry point in advance of a split announcement. Expect
some resistance at the 20-dma at $110 and then the 50-dma at
$115. Above that, the roof gets pretty sturdy at $120, a triple
top resistance level. Confirm the overall movement in the market
before entering a new play. Retracement to $100 would offer a
great entry. If volume sputters at the 117-120 levels, take your
profits and wait for another entry point. We will watch the wire
for the split announcement and will advise you accordingly.
Adjust your stops below $100 based on intra-day swings.
Picked on May 7th @ $103.75
Change since picked 0.00
| |
SEPR - Sepracor Incorporated $103.25 (+11.25)
Biotech is the future! This is certainly true of investor
sentiment. The latest estimates show that Sepracor (SEPR) is
expected to triple its net revenues this year alone. Prompting
this growth is the company's strong position in the Improved
Chemical Entities (ICE's), market. ICE's are enhanced
pharmaceutical formulations to existing drugs that offer
increased therapeutic efficacy and reduced side effects for
patients. Currently trading near the area of its most recent
split, shareholders will vote on a proposal to increase the
number of authorized shares from 140 million to 240 million at
the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 24th. If the
proposal is accepted, then the company will have enough shares to
split its stock 2:1. The stock performance has done extremely
well since its last split announcement, gaining 47%. Most
recently, the stock broke resistance at the century mark and has
been working its way back to re-test previous highs ($126.81).
Good volume and a strong trend lead us to believe that prices
have a good shot at re-testing the $120 levels. Look for
resistance to be felt at the $110 mark and higher up at the $120
level. Resistance at $120 should be stiff, as all-time highs
reside at this level. As for support, prices should initially
encounter strength at the century mark. Secondary support should
follow at $90, bolstered by the 50-dma or $90.65. Look for swift
bounces off support to activate our entries. We'll plan to hold
shares up to the shareholder's meeting of May 24th, for a split
announcements to follow. Use stops to lock in profits or limit
losses.
Picked on May 7th @ $103.25
Change since picked 0.00
| |
SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
GILTF - Gilat Satellite Networks $82.00 (-3.88)
The information age has many options for participants and one of
the best is satellite transmission. Gilat has many key Fortune
500 customers that depend upon Gilat's reliable services. GILTF
has certainly had an amazingly volatile year, but odds are that
the stock will be one of the survivors of the technology
correction due to its solid business plan and profitability. In
the last quarter, GILTF posted an even $1.00 profit and beat the
Street by 3 cents. Earnings were $0.23 higher than the same
quarter in the previous year. The next earnings report is due
before the open on May 15th, and we expect an anticipatory rally.
A 3:1 split announced back in February, when the stock was at
$161.75, could also contribute to a rally. Although a payable
date has not been announced yet, it is expected before the end of
the month. The trading in GILTF has narrowed significantly.
Support has been tested a couple of times at $80 and bounces can
still be bought. The MACD is struggling to turn up but an
earnings related rally could get it going. The stock remains
oversold on a RSI basis. Resistance can be found at $89, a
possible exit point. A quick move and a close above $89 and we
may get a stronger rally into the earnings and split. We will
exit this position before the earnings or the split, whichever
comes first.
Picked on May 4th @ $84.50
Change since picked -2.50
| |
JNPR - JUNIPER NETWORKS INC. $193.38 (-19.31)
It's Official! On Friday, the shareholders of Juniper Networks
met and approved the two-for-one stock split set for a payable
date of June 15th. Juniper Networks, Inc. is a leading provider
of purpose-built systems that meet the scalability, performance,
density, and compatibility requirements of rapidly evolving,
optically enabled IP networks. The company's purpose-built
systems provide new IP infrastructure solutions for the world's
leading service providers. Juniper Networks service,
manufacturing teams and IP engineers work closely with customers
to build and support customer networks. Other Internet related
stocks gained on the day as well, with the Internet Index (IIX)
up 3% for the day. In Thursday's write up, we mentioned we'd like
to see a bounce off $180. Friday's open afforded us that bounce
with the stock trading as high as $195.50 by mid-afternoon.
Volume came in average at 3.3 million shares. We see some support
forming at that $180 level and resistance should next be
encountered at the double century mark. Take your profits when
they come and consider getting back in on dips. We would suggest
stops placed below the $180 level.
Picked on April 27th @ $208.94
Change since picked -15.56
| |
LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $107.94 (+11.19)
Feeling a little lonely on those long drives to work? How about
a conversation with your car. Well, that may be a stretch now,
but LHSP is definitely attempting to increase the utility of the
automobile with voice recognition technology. In the near
future, it may be possible to access e-mail, place phone calls
and control the climate and entertainment in your auto through
voice directed commands. LHSP has two major partnerships for
developing their technologies. One with Ford for the automobile
and another with AOL for Internet based voice recognition. On
top of that futuristic story, LHSP is also about to split.
Announced back in February, the 2:1 split is payable on May 12th,
and we expect a nice run, especially now that the stock is
comfortably back over $100. Another solid quarter is expected to
be announced on May 10th; but that date is not set in stone and
we will continue to monitor that situation. On Thursday, we
stated that the first hurdle for LHSP would be to close above the
50-DMA at $106.75. Having cleared that, we see no reason other
than the potential for overall market weakness, why LHSP cannot
keep working itself higher. The MACD is turning up and portends
some more share price increases and there is plenty of room to
the upside on RSI before the stock becomes overbought. The next
resistance is $118, the early April high. Some support can be
found near the 5-DMA at $105 followed by $100. We will be
exiting this position before the split or the earnings, whichever
comes first.
Picked on May 4th @ $104.31
Change since picked +3.63
| |
TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC $153.81 (-9.06)
HOLDR RIGHT THERE PARTNER! On Friday, Texas Instruments began
trading in a brand new way. The Dallas manufacturer of
semiconductor and semiconductor products began trading as a
HOLDR. Merrill Lynch unveiled its latest basket of stocks called
a HOLDR, which stands for, "holding company depository receipts".
The basket is made up of just semiconductor stocks and trades on
the AMEX under the symbol (SMH). All of the stocks in the group
have an average Relative Strength (RS) of at least 90, (see note
on RS under AMD play). Friday the stock opened higher and hit an
intra-day high of $160.50 before a retreat that began late
morning and never recovered. Volume was light along with the
broader markets. TXN seems to be rolling between $150 - $165 as
of late; a nice pattern for those of you who like to sell covered
calls and buy them back. Support is at the 20-dma at $150 and
resistance is about six floors up at $160. The 2:1 split is
scheduled for May 22nd, so plan to exit this play ahead of the
paydate. We would like to see a bounce off the buck fifty ($150)
mark on good volume. Additionally, if we bore through the ceiling
at $160, again on accompanying volume, that too would be a good
entry point. Be very careful placing trades ahead of the FOMC
meeting, the light volume of late indicates the absence of the
professional money and should give us all reason for pause.
Picked on May 4th @ $155.50
Change since picked -1.69
| |
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
AMAT - Applied Materials $101.88 (+0.06)
Applied Materials is the leading provider of chip manufacturing
equipment. The company manufactures, markets and distributes
semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment worldwide. They also
provide maintenance and repair services for the equipment. Early
Friday morning, Applied Materials announced that shipments of a
$100 million order from 1st Silicon (Malaysia) would begin in May
2000. The stock rallied on the news, gapping up above $100
resistance and hitting an intra-day of $102.88 on strong volume.
This could be the start of its earnings run. The Company is
expected to announce earnings on 5/10 after the bell and we are
looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings
release. The Company is trading well below its historic split
price, but we still may see a split announcement because the
stock is trading over or near the $100 split target price. Keep
in mind that we are playing the anticipatory run into the
earnings report and if the Company doesn't announce a split, it
won't have any bearing on our play. The CEO has recently
announced a strong outlook for AMAT so an earnings surprise is
already factored in so we are looking to exit before the release.
In the meantime, support is now the century mark with stronger
support at the 10 and 15-dma's at $97. Place stops under $97 to
minimize losses. Resistance is now $105 and then $111. Initiate
new plays on a bounce off of $100 or a move above $105 on heavy
volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before
opening new positions. We recommend an exit in front of earnings
on 5/10.
Picked on April 30th @ $101.81
Change since picked +0.06
| |
AMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES $92.00 (+4.75)
It's all relative. An accurate statement if you are referring to
Advanced Micro Devices. Plain and simple, AMD is in the business
of manufacturing semiconductor chip for PC's. Once called an
Intel clone because of its direct competition to Intel (INTC),
the company has been establishing itself and gaining ground on
its competition. I mentioned relative strength because I find it
an important fundamental in evaluating stocks. Relative strength
measures the price performance of a stock against all other
stocks. AMD currently holds a RS of 98, which means it
outperformed 98% of all other stocks in price performance over
the last 12 months. A quick look at a chart of AMD would confirm
a steady ascent that began in 12/99. Additionally, for you
dedicated chartist, AMD has mirrored the movement of the
semiconductor index (SOX) and has had relative price movement
over the last 10 days. On May 25th, the shareholders will vote on
increasing shares from 250M to 750M and possibly announce a
split. We would like to see the enthusiasm reflected in the
volume with an increase back over 5 million shares. AMD hit
another new high Friday at $92.88 before easing back at the
close. Resistance is now the new high and support is at $90, the
5-dma. Use trailing stops to luck in profits.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +26.00
| |
BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $136.06 (+12.06)
What is it that makes Brocade's position as a storage area
network (SAN's) provider so unique? The answer: BRCD's Fibre
Channel switching solutions. These Fibre switches are seen as the
next generation in SAN's technology and are re-architecting the
storage environment. Specifically, the company's SilkWorm family
of switches allows businesses to improve performance between
their servers and storage systems, while allowing them to operate
data-intensive applications cost effectively. This unique
strategy in the high-growth storage market has boded well for
BRCD shares. Summing up this week, shares finished strongly on
Friday, gaining 15.3% on the day! This strong advance broke
sharply through 2 major resistance levels, $120 and $130 before
finishing off at $136.06. If good volume (3.0m shares or better)
can continue to play a role in the advance, then expect to see
our next stop at $140, bolstered by the 50-dma ($139.51). Further
advances will likely meet the century and a half mark for more
significant resistance. Though support should now come at
previous resistance ($120 and $130), we recommend placing a stop
at $129.88 to lock in profits. Also, incorporate trailing stops
to lock in gains as prices continue to rise.
Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked +21.06
| |
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $186.94 (+13.94)
The "Love Bug" virus, the first headline-grabbing virus since
Melissa, helped CHKP to be one of the strongest technology stocks
of the week. These simple, yet deadly viruses, present a real
threat to users of the Internet and you can bet that CHKP is
working 24/7 to combat these types of afflictions because the
Company is a leader in firewall and Internet protection software
systems. CHKP was one of the first technology stocks to recover
from the decimation we saw last month. The two main reasons for
this are because the Company is profitable and their products are
absolutely critical for any company looking to make its mark on
the worldwide Web. CHKP is a serious split candidate due to its
relatively lofty stock price. The stock was split 2:1 in
January, following an announcement when the stock was trading at
similar levels to today's price at $192.81. A B of D meeting
would be a likely time to announce a split and we will continue
to monitor the wires for any pending meetings. The Company would
also need to increase the number of authorized shares before
delivering any splits. Technically, CHKP looks very strong but
do not expect the virus related rally to last too much longer.
There is some pretty good resistance at the 50-DMA at $196.
Momentum should be able to get the stock above this resistance to
the $200 level before possibly falling back. It would take a
sustained NASDAQ rally or perhaps a split announcement to propel
the stock much higher than that. The MACD is moving higher and
indicates some more upside and RSI has some upside as well. If
the stock does manage to close above $200, a move to $224 is
possible, but do not be afraid to take profits if the stock
starts pulling back. The 5-DMA offers some support at
approximately $182, Friday's low. More support is found at the
10-DMA at $175. We will exit this position if there is a split
announcement.
Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked +7.94
| |
CMGI - CMGI Inc. $65.25 (-6.00)
If the Internet stock correction is over, then buying CMGI will
probably be one of the best ways to benefit from a comeback
rally. It was last May that saw the end of the last major
Internet stock correction. The strongest survived. By investing
in CMGI you are making a play on a diversified portfolio of Web-
based companies. One core holding of CMGI's is AltaVista, the
Internet portal, commerce and search engine company. AltaVista
has had a slew of good news recently including a huge number of
new subscribers for their free ISP service to launching the
fastest and perhaps best new search engine last week. CMGI's
stock price will probably continue its recovery because of its
leadership in the industry. That said, there is no guarantee
that the correction is over, so new positions should be placed
cautiously. On the plus side, CMGI has managed a series of
higher lows going back to April's capitulation selloff. The MACD
has begun an ascent that indicates some more upside potential and
the RSI tells us that there is a lot of room to the upside before
the stock becomes overbought but the stock is no longer severely
oversold. We can stay in CMGI as long as the stock can
consistently move above each previous day's highs. When this
pattern discontinues, CMGI could easily fall back into a
consolidation mode. Resistance can be found at $75, which was
the peak of the last mini-rally. There is some support at the 5-
DMA at $65 and change and the 10-DMA at $62.50. Although a split
seems very unlikely we will sell this position in the event of
any major announcements.
Picked on April 27th @ $66.19
Change since picked -0.94
| |
EMLX - Emulex Corp. $62.50 (+17.13)
Companies need easy access to the reams of data that they
accumulate, and EMLX is one company that has the products that
enable the voracious data needs of today's business world to be
met. EMLX provides the adapters, hubs, fibre channel networks
and software needed to make the process operate smoothly. EMLX
is one technology stock that has earnings combined with monster
growth potential. It is a recipe that could enable the stock to
start gobbling back chunks of its recent market losses. Although
there are plenty of authorized shares available to enable a
split, EMLX is not a real strong split candidate at these prices.
The last quarter was solid, but the next earnings are not until
July. Therefore, this is not an earnings play either. So why do
we like this play? EMLX presents a unique technical opportunity
because it appears that the stock is poised to close a gap. If
the theory that all gaps must be closed holds up, then EMLX is
looking at a short-term rally that should take the stock to $78.
That is, if it can close above $64.38, then it should offer a
nice gain. EMLX made a foray into the gap territory on Friday
only to suffer some profit taking at the end. This is the second
time this has happened so we would be cautious and perhaps wait
for that aforementioned close above $64.38 before going long or
perhaps even waiting for the stock to rally above Friday's high
of $66.38 before going long. The MACD is trending up and there
is a ton of room on the upside for the RSI. OBV has also staged
a decent recovery. Support can be found a couple of points lower
but we would not chase the stock too far lower than that. At
this time, there are not any major events that would force us to
exit this position.
Picked on May 4th @ $62.63
Change since picked -0.13
| |
LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $63.88 (-3.50)
Lattice Semiconductor is the world's largest supplier of high
performance programmable logic devices (PLDs) and related
development system software. The Company designs, develops and
markets a broad range of high performance PLDs sold worldwide
primarily to OEM customers in the communications, computing
industrial and military markets. The Company is the inventor of
in-system programmable (ISP) PLDs which are standard
semiconductor components that can be configured by the end
customer as specific logic functions, reducing the design cycle
and product development costs. On Friday, shares of LSCC tested
$60 support and $65 resistance, closing at the higher end of the
range on average volume. Still no split from Lattice but we may
get one on Monday. If not, we could see a split out of their next
BoD meeting or in July when the Company announces quarterly
earnings. Until then, support remains steady at $60 with stronger
support at $59. Set stops under $59 to limit losses. Resistance
has moved up to $65 and then $70. Open new positions on a bounce
off of $60 or a move above $65. Look for heavy volume in a rising
market before starting new plays. Look for an exit in the session
following a split announcement or before the earnings release in
July.
Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +0.94
| |
MXIM - Maxim Integrated Products Inc. $68.00 (+3.19)
By keeping up with the strong demand for circuit integrated
products, Maxim has rapidly emerged a leader among it peers. Now
seeking to supply global demand for its products, analysts are
expecting revenues to rise sharply through fiscal year 2000.
Specifically, revenues should increase due to strong bookings and
backlogs for all product lines and across all geographic areas.
Now, as for the stock, shares were able to maintain a tight
consolidation all week. For advances to all-time highs, prices
will first have to close above the top of their consolidation
range ($86.44), prior to signaling an advance. Also, note that
resistance at $70 might challenge prices before recent highs are
met. As for support, we are looking at the base of the
consolidation ($65), to be hardened by both the 10 and 50-dma's
($64.44 and $64.89). For additional declines, look for $60 to be
strong. Use firm bounces off support to trigger entries, when
good daily volume is present (3.0m or better). Our target date
will remain the S&P addition on May 9th. Use trailing stops to
lock in gains.
Picked on May 4th @ $67.25
Change since picked +0.75
| |
PMCS - PMC SIERRA INC. $180.00 (-11.88)
Will PMC have PMS? Before you take offense of this comment let me
explain. By PMS I mean Past May's Slide. Last May after a great
split run, PMC Sierra slid before basing in mid May and running
more than 200 points by February of this year. Technically, the
slide appears to have already occurred for the Internetworking
semiconductor system solution company. PMCS is in the business of
making high-speed transmission and networking solutions for the
telecommunication and data communications industry. Their
products are helping to restructure the way we transmit
information around the globe. PMCS is well positioned as the
emergence of the semiconductors in the present sector rotation is
leading the pact. The April lows in PMCS were better than a 60%
retracement from the March highs. PMCS is not lacking in price
appreciation as it outperformed 98% of all other stocks in the
last 12 months. On June 15th, shareholders are meeting to vote on
an increase in company shares and a possible split. Confidence in
the semiconductor field was noted Friday by Merrill Lynch with
their introduction of a basket of semiconductor stocks trading as
one unit called a HOLDR, (See article on TXN). We continue to see
good things for PMCS, which closed Friday just above the 10-dma
at $176. Friday's closing price was at light resistance, which
should now serve as near term support. The next challenge will be
the 50-dma at $190. Volume needs to pick back up over 5 million
shares to be convincing. Gauge any new play by confirmation in
the SOX index and the NASDAQ. Use trailing stops defensively
based upon your degree of risk.
Picked on April 27th @ $182.62
Change since picked -2.62
| |
XLNX - Xilinx $68.88 (-4.38)
Versatility is the key word to describe the semiconductor
products designed and produced by XLNX. The Company makes some
of the fastest chips that can be programmed and hence customized
by the end user. XLNX sells to a diversified customer base that
ranges from Telecommunications to Networking. XLNX has also
demonstrated that their software can help to design some of the
fastest chips for the future. XLNX at first appears to have a
stock price that might be too low to be a split candidate but
history tells us otherwise, as the Company's last two splits
occurred at similar price levels of $68.63 and $75.00. The last
two splits were announced in conjunction with a quarterly
earnings release. XLNX's next earnings are expected to be
announced in mid-July. XLNX currently does not have enough
authorized shares to effect a 2:1. XLNX had a very nice run
after breaking out above $50 and subsequently rallying to a high
of $88.44. The early spring correction has put XLNX into a
consolidation phase that we feel we can trade for some nice
profits. $63.50 appears to be the support for XLNX as the stock
tested that level twice last week. Next week appears to be
technically critical for XLNX. The stock closed the week just a
couple of points below both the 5 and 10-DMA's. The MACD is
neutral and it cannot decide whether to give a buy or sell
signal. Perhaps the best move is to wait for some early strength
next week before going long. A move above short-term resistance
of $68.75 could indicate a retest of the 50-DMA at $75, which has
proven to be very solid resistance and the upper edge of the
trading range. Any sustained advance will require XLNX to close
above $75. We will exit this play if there is a split
announcement and we suggest placing a stop at $63, which is just
below last week's low prints.
Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked -1.50
| |
YHOO - Yahoo! $125.69 (-4.56)
Yahoo! Inc is a leading international Internet media company that
operates a branded network of commerce, media and communication
services to a worldwide audience of 100 million users. YHOO
offers broadcast media, personal communications and direct
services including online content guides, Web search
capabilities, aggregated third party content, and e-mail. On
Friday, ABN Amro started coverage of YHOO with an outperform
rating and set a $175 target. Shares of YHOO traded up slightly
on light volume but failed to stay above the 20-dma-resistance
level. The stock has been in a trading range for two weeks now.
We expect momentum to pick up as we move closer to the Company's
Annual Shareholders Meeting on 5/12. At the meeting, shareholders
will vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares and
we are looking for a split announcement following the Annual
Meeting. For now, the stock has support at $120 with stronger
support just underneath Wednesday's low at $116. Place stops
under $116 as protection. Resistance continues to hold at the 20-
dma, currently at $127 and then $130. Start new plays on a bounce
off of $120 or a break above $127. Initiate new positions on
heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in the
session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked -1.00
| |
SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
ANEN - ANAREN MICROWAVE INC. $117.75 (+13.75)
No,No,Know. No news, no volume and a twelve point gain in a day
means we should know enough to take a profit. In fact, we did and
are dropping ANEN for now with a nice one-day gain. Friday the
stock traded a sleepy 44K shares. With the FOMC meeting next
week and the uncertainty in this current market we feel fortunate
to slip away with more than a 10% gain. ANEN is scheduled for a
3:2 stock split in mid June. We will watch and see how things
progress in the coming days and weeks and may reinitiate coverage
of this stock again. Consider taking profits ahead of Tuesday's
meeting. You can't go broke taking a profit!
Picked on May 2nd @ $103.25
Profit/Loss = +14.50 (+14%)
Best profit = +16.75 (+16%)
| |
EBAY - eBay Incorporated $134.00 (-25.19)
Although a Lehman Brothers buy rating on EBAY could have turned
our play around, shares continued to slip further past their 200-
dma ($147.06). This descent was accompanied by good volume
(3.05m), which can indicate a future tendency for downside
momentum to continue. This drop also leads us to believe that
prices may end up breaking through their lower consolidation
range. Based on these circumstances, we feel that its better to
wait on the sidelines, until strength in the Internet sector
resumes.
Picked on May 2nd @ $143.38
Profit/Loss = -9.38 (-7%)
Best Profit = +2.87 (+2%)
| |
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
INKT - Inktomi Corporation $143.31 (-10.63)
Despite a strong performance for the NASDAQ on Friday, shares of
INKT were unable to join in the winnings. Attempting another shot
at the century and a half mark proved to be futile and was
followed by lower prices. Though INKT did provide us with a
profitable play, we feel that current short-term weakness in the
stock despite strength in the NASDAQ may be an initial sign of
underlying weakness. Because of this, we're choosing to drop the
stock now. We'll keep you updated on future plays as they
develop.
Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Profit/Loss = +1.37 (+1%)
Best Profit = +26.44 (+19%)
| |
TIBX - TIBCO Software $82.13 (+6.94)
A quick and unsuspected drop in TIBX shares caused us to take a
step back from our initial assessments. Friday's sharp decline in
spite of strength in the NASDAQ composite may hint at near-term
weakness for TIBX. Though our buy signal had not yet been
generated, we feel that in the short-term other plays will likely
present better outcomes. Based on our evaluation, we are opting
to drop the stock for now. We'll keep you posted on upcoming
events as they become publicized.
Picked on May 4th @ $89.61
Profit/Loss = -7.48 (-8%)
Best Profit = +1.89 (+2%)
| |