NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
None
NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
ADI - Analog Devices $76.81 (+12.06)
Analog Devices designs, manufactures and markets precision high-
performance integrated circuits (ICs) used in analog and digital
signal processing. The Company's largest single product group is
general-purpose Standard Linear ICs used in equipment and systems
for several market segments including communications, computer,
industrial, and high-performance consumer electronics. ADI
executed a 2:1 stock split on 3/16 and then hit an all-time high
of $94.69 on 3/24. The stock tumbled with the NASDAQ for most of
April. On Thursday, ADI closed above its 20-dma for the first
time since March. We feel that the stock has formed a strong base
and is beginning to make a run into their earnings release on
5/17 before the opening bell. We are hoping for a split
announcement to come with the earning release. The Company
currently has 600 million shares authorized and 353.8 million
shares outstanding so they could set 3:2 split or a higher split
ratio pending shareholder approval. Going forward, ADI has
support at $72 with stronger support at the 5-dma, currently at
$68. Resistance is $80 and then $82. Use a bounce of off $72 or a
move above $80 on heavy volume to initiate new plays. Confirm
market sentiment and sector direction before opening new
positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings on 4/16.
Picked on April 30th @ $76.81
Change since picked +0.00
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AMAT - Applied Materials $101.81 (+8.69)
Applied Materials is a leading provider of semiconductor wafer
fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the
semiconductor industry. They also offer maintenance and repair
services for their products. This is a semiconductor
infrastructure play. The stock has been hot thanks to a
recovering worldwide semiconductor market. AMAT hit an all-time
high of $115 on 4/7 but fell back to a relative low of $78 one
week later. Since then, the stock traded in a range of $90-$100.
On Thursday, shares of AMAT broke out of this range, closing
above 20-dma and the $100 resistance level. The Company executed
a 2:1 stock split on 3/16 and held their Annual Shareholder
Meeting on 3/21 when the shareholder approved an increase in
authorized shares from 1.1 billion to 2.5 billion. The company
currently has 773 million shares outstanding. We are looking for
another split when the Company announces earnings on 5/10 after
the bell. In the meantime, AMAT has light support at the century
mark with technical support at the 20-dma, now at $97. Resistance
is just above Friday's high at $106 and then the all-time high of
$115. Look for a bounce off of $100 or a move above $106 to open
new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. Plan to exit in front of earnings on 5/10.
Picked on April 30th @ $101.81
Change since picked +0.00
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MERQ - Mercury Interactive $90.00 (+17.61)
It appears that this stock might have found a lifeboat amid the
sinking and possibly disappearing Internet stocks. A lot will be
accomplished if the correction of the past two months separates
the winners from the losers of the new economy. MERQ just may be
a winner but be very careful because things change very quickly
and MERQ could just turn into another rat leaving a sinking ship.
One strong argument for believing that MERQ will be a winner is
because the Company has products that are potentially useful and
perhaps necessary for all of the other survivors. MERQ makes
testing software that helps Internet companies make sure that
their systems are working. This is critical because new
customers have very little patience for Web sites that constantly
crash. If you want to survive you better fork out the cash to
make sure your Web site works and MERQ is there to help out.
Surprisingly, MERQ has twice split its shares with the stock
trading at similar price levels to where the stock is trading
today. There is an Annual Meeting scheduled for May 24th. At
this meeting, Shareholders will be voting to increase the number
of authorized shares and it is possible that a split announcement
could occur on or around that date. Also helping the stock is
the fact that the Company is actually profitable earning $0.11
last quarter. Lehman Brothers initiated coverage of MERQ with a
Buy rating last week, which certainly did not hurt the price
action of the stock. The 50-DMA is sitting right at $90.75 and
MERQ nearly ran right smack into it on the close of Friday. A
move above that price could be a good entry point. The first
support is Friday's low of $85.50 and we would be patient before
entering if the stock drops below that price because the next
real support is the 10-DMA at 75. Both the MACD and the RSI have
turned up so the rally could continue a bit but do not be afraid
to get out if things change. We will be exiting this position if
there is a split announcement.
Picked on April 30th @ $90.00
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
JNPR - JUNIPER NETWORKS INC. $212.68 (+26.56)
Juniper Networks provides high-performance IP networking systems
that enables service providers to meet the demands of the rapidly
growing Internet. Last week JNPR and Ciena Corporation (CIEN)
successfully completed testing of interoperability between 10Gbps
optical and IP networking platforms. The union between the two
systems makes 10Gbps next-generation optical networks and pure
10G IP service over glass, a reality for service providers. JNPR
enjoyed a profitable week trading up almost 70 points from
Monday's low at $155. This Thursday, May 4th, shareholders will
meet for final approval of the 2 for 1 split scheduled for June
16th. Support is now the 20-dma at $205, then the psychological
$200 mark. Resistance is overhead at the 50-dma at $240. Friday's
volume was slightly above average at 3.6 million shares. We would
like to see more conviction take the stock higher. Perhaps
anticipation of this week's meeting with bolster enthusiasm. We
would look for a bounce off $200-$205 on good volume as a good
entry point. The last 4 trading sessions the stock had traded up
at least 10 points during the first hour of trading. Be careful
to confirm the momentum in the NASDAQ along with the Internet
sector before entering a new position. Friday's NASDAQ volume was
the 7th session of below-normal volume and thus the rally is
still suspect. Place stops just below $200 to limit losses.
Picked on April 27th @ $208.94
Change since picked +3.74
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NEWP - Newport Corporation $121.31 (+14.56)
As the optical sector is once again starting to come back to
life, we're looking at NEWP to outperform many of its peers. Our
reasons for this are both fundamental and technical.
Fundamentally, the company just reported its strongest quarter
ever, more than tripling profits. Importantly, the company
actually has earnings, unlike many of its optical competitors. As
for the chart, NEWP just broke above its down trendline, which is
a bullish indication that further advances are more probable.
Currently, the stock advanced nicely on Friday, soaring near its
50-dma during the day, before closing at $121.31. The stock will
be faced with initial resistance along the 50-dma ($130.72)
before challenging further opposition at the century and a half
mark. Good volume (350k or better) will likely have to be
present, in order for NEWP to stage further advances through
these resistance points. As for support, look for the down
trendline to now provide support ($114-115). Just lower, the 20-
dma ($110.29) should also help to brace any declines. However,
given the volatility of this sector, we're recommending that
stops be placed below the 5-dma ($109.06), to protect against a
meltdown. Continue to use trailing stops to lock in profits.
Picked on April 27th @ $116.25
Change since picked +5.06
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PAYX - Paychex $52.63 (+1.88)
A very small pullback continues for PAYX but we still want to
hold this position because we suspect that the stock will
strongly outperform the rest of the market in the event of
another pullback. PAYX is a core long-term holding for many
institutions because the stock has had a very solid performance
record for years. As the leader of the payroll management
business, PAYX has greatly benefited from this surging economy
that has seen an incredible rise in the creation of small to
medium sized businesses, exactly the targeted demographic for the
efficient services that Paychex offers. PAYX has one of the most
impressive split records among all public stocks. PAYX has
announced a 3:2 split for six consecutive years and sure enough
another split was announced on April 13th. The payable date for
the latest split is May 22nd. Because of the split and a solid
long-term uptrend we expect that PAYX will be able to climb into
new high territory in the coming weeks. PAYX successfully tested
the 50-DMA on Friday and closed above it. The average is at
$50.50 and we suggest protecting yourself with a stop just below
it at $50. RSI is right in the middle and is not offering any
indication. The MACD is positive however, which offers us some
encouragement that a rally may be soon at hand. We will be
exiting this position no later than just before the payable date
of May 22nd.
Picked on April 25th @ $55.31
Change since picked -2.68
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RMBS - Rambus Incorporated $230.00 (+62.50)
The penetration of Rambus DRAM (RDRAM) into the personal computer
market this year, should create quite a stir for other
manufacturers in this market. Having greater scalability than
SDRAM and DDR DRAM providers, RDRAM is much more adapt for
meeting the needs and speeds of future microprocessors.
Understanding this competitive edge, Intel has decided to use
RDRAM in its high scale i820 chipset. Undoubtedly, this helped
RMBS shares run wild earlier in the year, gaining and unreal
403.56 points! Recently, a month long consolidation has begun to
show new life. Advancing from a strong gap on Friday, shares were
aided by a further progression in the NASDAQ composite. Adding
18.19 points, the stock continued its march to resistance along
the $250 mark. More strength will likely encounter added
resistance at the 50-dma ($268.40). Look to take profits at
resistance points, or consider adding quick positions when prices
advance through these levels. On the downside, anticipate firm
support at the double century mark to remain intact and offer
good intra-day buying points. Secondary support should be
followed at the $175 mark, bolstered by the 100-dma of $173.76.
The volatility of this stock is tremendous, as such; don't
hesitate to lock in quick gains as profits. Keep tight stops
below support levels to avoid excessive losses.
Picked on April 27th @ $211.75
Change since picked +18.25
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TFS - Three-Five Systems $86.50 (-5.87)
Residing on the NYSE was an advantage for TFS all week but it
appears that it was a handicap on Friday as sellers took control
of the Exchange and TFS suffered a sizable round of profit
taking. A small amount of concern probably developed when the
stock rallied to $99 but failed to move into triple digits on
Thursday. The key factors that initially attracted us to this
play still exist. TFS is a major supplier of LCD and LED
products that are widely used for office product displays and
mobile devices. Sales of the latter have been huge and with new
products coming out all of the time we fully expect TFS to
continue lighting up the bottom line with solid earnings. One
new product that seems to have piqued the interest of investors
is TFS's microdisplay technology which is currently under
development at Nikon for use in the next generation of rear-
projection televisions and computer monitors. There is also a
split coming up. The 3:2 split was announced on Tuesday and will
be payable on May 12th. Friday's selloff may have stopped some
of you out at the suggested price of $89. The drop may be due to
the news item that TFS intends to sell 2.6 million shares in a
secondary offering after the split. The initial suggested
offering price is $51.67 per share. That price could increase if
the stock remains strong. Even the strongest looking stocks have
turned on a dime in this market and taking profits is never a bad
experience. If you are still in this play we suggest placing a
stop at $80, which is just below the 10-DMA. New positions can
be placed as long as the stock stays above $81 in the hopes that
there will be another move towards $100. Although still
positive, the MACD may be a bit high here and RSI is a bit
overbought. Because of these factors the pullback was not
terribly surprising. That said, TFS is still in a very strong
uptrend. We will be exiting this position before the May 12th
split date.
Picked on April 25th @ $81.88
Change since picked +4.62
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TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INC. $162.88 (+17.88)
Yee-Haw! Texas Instruments enjoyed a great week along with many
other Semiconductors stocks. As old economy stocks and those most
sensitive to higher interest rates suffered, technology stocks
like TXN had a glorious week. As a worldwide supplier of
semiconductors and semiconductor related products, TXN is nestled
in the leading industry in this current market. According to an
article in Investor's Business Daily on Friday, the place to be
during a market rotation is in the industry group, which is
flexing its muscles. This theory of sector rotation has been back
tested back to the 1960's with great accuracy. In Thursday's
report, we noted that TXN would have to retest $169 as its next
resistance. On Friday it was tested but not conquered on lower
than average volume of 5 million shares. We therefore keep $169
as our resistance. Support is the now 50-dma at $160. A good
bounce off $160 or a strong move through $170 would be good entry
points. Confirm market direction before entering a new play. We
will have a stop in place just below the 50-dma at $159.
Picked on April 25th @ $152.00
Change since picked +10.88
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ZOMX - Zomax Incorporated $47.31 (+4.37)
What makes Zomax such a successful company is their ability to
offer large-scale companies all of the little important things
that help their business to run. For example, when a ZOMX
customer like Microsoft, needs to ship out a software upgrade,
ZOMX will analyze and perform the warehousing, distribution and
fulfillment programs to ensure a "just-in-time" product delivery.
Investors who have seen the phenomenal growth of ZOMX (225%
increase in first quarter earnings) have recognized the
importance of their services to large businesses. Adding an
additional 4.37 points this week, shares managed to base their
recovery off strong support at the 200-dma ($39.46). Light
support should now be found near the $45 level, as reinforced by
the 5-dma ($44.11). As for the upside, if firm resistance along
the half-century mark, bolstered by the 20 and 100-dma's ($49.82
and $49.53) can be penetrated, then anticipate a possible run to
more resistance along the 50-dma ($53.30). Still higher,
resistance at the $60 level should be expected to be firm.
Remember to confirm strength in the broader market prior to
opening new plays. Monday's payable date of May 8th will require
us to exit by Friday's close (5th).
Picked on April 23rd @ $42.94
Change since picked +4.37
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
ALTR - Altera $102.25 (+11.06)
Altera designs, manufactures and markets programmable logic
devices (PLDs) and associated development tools. The Company was
the first supplier of Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor
(CMOS) programmable logic devices that are used for high-speed,
high-density and low-power applications, commonly found in
wireless phones and handheld devices. On Friday, ALTR fell $3.75
on average volume. The stock stayed above the century mark but we
are somewhat concerned because the semiconductor sector rallied
on Friday but ALTR did not. However, ALTR was just at an all-time
high and it is not surprising to see some consolidation before it
breaks out. The Company's Annual Shareholder Meeting is scheduled
for 5/10 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in the
number of authorized shares. We are looking for a split
announcement following the meeting. Going forward, support is
holding at the century mark. Additional technical support is the
5-dma at $99 and then the 10-dma at $94. Set hard stops under
$93, as we will exit this play if it trades under $93. Resistance
showed up at $108 with heavier resistance at $110. Start new
plays on a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $108 on strong
volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before
opening new positions. Plan to exit shortly after the Annual
Meeting, assuming we get split announcement. If not, exit in
front of earnings in July.
Picked on April 25th @ $98.88
Change since picked +3.38
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AMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES $87.50 (+9.25)
Chips Ahoy! Advanced Micro Devices couldn't be positioned any
better under current market conditions. The California
Semiconductor manufacturer had a good week with several factors
helping to bolster prices. First, MU is positioned in the current
leading industry, The Semiconductor Industry. Secondly, the
company had earnings that doubled the previous year's results,
and finally they appear ready for a stock split. Friday the
company announced it would be having an annual meeting on May
25th. At that meeting they will ask shareholders to approve an
increase in shares from 250M to 750M. This we believe will be the
catalyst for a stock split. Friday the stock achieved another new
high at $88.87 on 50% increased volume at 7.9 million shares. We
now see resistance at $90, but a break through this level on good
volume, might easily see a jump to the century mark. Light
support is at the 5-dma at $85 and the 10-dma at $80. A hard
bounce off $80 or a strong mover through $90 would be a good
entry point. We would place stops just below $80. Confirm new
position with the SOX index and the NASDAQ.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +$21.50
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BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $124.00 (+19.00)
Given the current inflationary worries, it's surprising how well
the NASDAQ composite was able to buck the trend of a declining
Dow Jones throughout the week. This flight back into technology
shares helped BRCD add an additional 9 points, or 7.82% on
Friday's trading. Providing a nice boost to the advance, a buy
rating initiated by CE Unterberg Towbin late Thursday, helped set
the stage for Friday's opening gap. Prices opened right at our
stated resistance at $120 and advanced intra-day to $129.75,
before settling off at $124. A close above the $120 mark now
offers support at this level and sets the stage for a potential
advance to the 50-dma ($140.33). If prices continue to advance
through this level, expect for shares to meet a challenging wall
of resistance at the buck fifty mark. Look to open positions when
advances through resistance are adjoined by good volume (3.0m or
better). As mentioned, look for initial support to now come at
the $120 mark, which will be followed by more support at the $110
level, bolstered by the 100-dma of $111.10. Plan exit tactics
prior to the earnings date of May 17th, and remember to protect
profits by trailing stops.
Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked +9.00
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BRCM - Broadcom $172.38 (+19.88)
Broadcom Corp. is a leading provider of highly integrated silicon
solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission. The
Company makes integrated circuits for a wide variety of broadband
communications equipment, including cable set-top boxes, cable
modems, high-speed networking equipment, and digital broadcast
equipment. The stock is having some trouble at the 20-dma. Shares
of BRCM spent most of the day trading above the 20-dma but it
reversed direction late in the day and failed to stay above this
critical resistance level. Broadcom held its Annual Shareholder
Meeting on Thursday but they did not announce a split. Hopefully,
we will get one early next week. However, due to the recent
market volatility, they may decide to wait until their next
earnings release in July. In the meantime, there is light support
at $170 with stronger support on the 5-dma at $161 and then $160.
Place hard stops under $160 to lock in profits. Resistance
remains at the 20-dma ($174) and then $180. Look for a bounce off
of $170 or a move above the 20-dma to initiate new positions.
Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to
exit in the session following a split announcement or in front of
earnings in July. There may be some disappointed investors if we
do not get a split on Monday, so we recommend an exit on a dip
below $160.
Picked on April 23rd @ $152.50
Change since picked +19.88
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CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $173.00 (+11.31)
Question: Are you comfortable conducting business over the
Internet? If you are, chances are it is because of the
innovative security software developed by CHKP. If you are not,
then CHKP is still working to beat the new cyber age criminal in
the hopes of instilling enough confidence in the medium so that
everybody is comfortable exchanging sensitive data through the
Information Highway. CHKP is fast becoming one of the "winners"
of the Internet revolution and the fact that the Company is
profitable has not been ignored by investors. CHKP has staged a
nice comeback from the market meltdown of last month and seems
poised to recapture more of its losses in the near future. CHKP
reported a solid quarter earlier this month coming in at $0.40 a
share which was five cents ahead of estimates. CHKP announced a
split in December when the stock was trading just below $200. We
expect split anticipation to begin if there is any announcement
of a pending B of D meeting. In the meantime, we will attempt to
ride the current rally as far as it will take us. We were a bit
disappointed in CHKP's failure to move higher on Friday after it
ran into resistance just under the weekly high of $185. Because
of the pullback we are recommending that you place a stop at the
20-DMA of $165 to avoid a major selloff. You may wish to wait
for a bounce off of that price before initiating a new position
or perhaps waiting for a break above the $185 resistance. We
will exit this position if there is a split announcement.
Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked -6.00
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CIEN - CIENA CORPORATION, INC. $123.63 (+26.63)
Busy Signal? Ciena Corporation is a global provider of data-
communications and Tele-communications for the optical networking
equipment industry. Their clients include Internet Service
Providers (ISP) and long-distance carriers. After a stellar week
with gains of better than 20%, CIEN met with resistance at the
50-dma on Friday. We mentioned in Thursday's report that $130
would pose resistance and in fact it did. We are better than two
weeks away from earnings scheduled for a confirmed date of May
18th. Consensus estimates are for a profit of .10 cents per
share, .08 cents better than the same quarter last year. If CIEN
has begun an earnings run, then we would like to see the 50-dma
sliced through on better than 6 million shares. A move through
this level could see further gains on up to the $150 level.
Currently, support can be found at the $120 level. In the event
of near term profit taking, we are placing stops just under the
5-dma at $115.
Picked on April 25th @ $105.87
Change since picked +17.76
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CMGI - CMGI Inc. $71.25 (+13.56)
The bottom fishers were out trolling last week and one of the
trophies they caught was CMGI. It is not too surprising that
money looking for an Internet play found its way into this former
leader. CMGI is a sort of mutual fund of the Internet industry
with majority holdings in many start up and more mature
companies. Perhaps the most visible holding for CMGI is
AltaVista, a portal, commerce and ISP site on the Internet.
There were several news items last week that indicated phenomenal
growth for AltaVista, especially for its new free ISP service
which has been signing up new customers at a 10,000 per day clip
since it debuted seven months ago. Previous splits have been
announced when the stock was trading as low as $91.38 and as high
as $248.38, so this is not a split play at these levels, yet. On
the surface this comeback appears a bit stronger than the last
bounce. Be careful though, the last bounce saw the stock give up
its gains very quickly. There is some support at Friday's low
price of $66.50. There is better support at the 5 and 10-DMA
which is sitting just under $62. CMGI enjoyed four consecutive
days of higher highs. We will stick with this play as long as
the comeback continues. You would be wise to keep raising your
stops as the stock advances in order to secure your profits. The
MACD just turned to the upside so a sustainable rally is possible
and the RSI is just starting to recover from extremely oversold
levels. We will exit this position if there is a split
announcement but more likely we will exit this position when
momentum subsides or reverses.
Picked on April 27th @ $66.19
Change since picked +5.06
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INKT - Inktomi Corporation $153.94 (+24.81)
Continuing a sharp rally off its 200-dma, shares of the leading
provider of scalable software applications for the Internet,
Inktomi, finished off the week with a stellar increase of 24.84
points. Following a strong open for many technology shares on
Friday and good momentum in many of the Internet-related issues,
the stock opened higher with a gap above the $150 resistance
mark. Holding above this level on the day, resistance should now
become support. Further support should be noted at the $140
level, which is supported by the 20-dma ($141.37). However, if
additional gains can continue to be made, then prepare for $160
to offer the next resistance. Reinforced by the 50-dma ($161.59),
the $160 level may present a good opportunity to lock in profits.
Look for market strength to confirm rises through resistance or
sharp bounces off support, prior to opening new positions. Also,
use trailing stops to lock in profits.
Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Change since picked +12.00
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LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $67.38 (+4.44)
Lattice Semiconductor is the world's largest supplier of high
performance programmable logic devices (PLDs) and related
development system software. The Company is the inventor of in-
system programmable (ISP) PLDs which are standard semiconductor
components that can be configured by the end customer as specific
logic functions, reducing the design cycle and product
development costs. The stock broke through major resistance at
the 20-dma on Friday and closed at the intra-day high and just
below the 50-dma. This is a good sign as we are now just 2
sessions away from their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2. We
are looking for a split announcement out of the meeting. For now,
LSCC has support at the 5 and 10-dma's at $62 with stronger
support at $60. Set stops under $60 as protection. There is
resistance at $70 and then $74. Use a bounce off of $62 or a move
above $70 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market
direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Look
for an exit in the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +4.44
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LVLT - Level 3 Communications $89.00 (+5.63)
Level 3 Communications holding company is engaged in information
services, communications and coal mining businesses throughout
the world. The Company provides systems integration services
enabling its customers to implement cost-effective information
services. They also offer reengineering services used to convert
legacy software for use in modern networked computing platforms.
The stock moved higher on Friday after a LVLT spokesperson said
that Walter Scott, Jr., chairman of LVLT, intended to sell
500,000 of the stock that he acquired in connection with a series
of transactions that resulted in the separation of its
construction business and the diversified business of Level 3
into two independent companies. He went on to state that the sale
represents 1% of his holdings in the stock. The company is
holding its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/22 and we are looking
for a split announcement following the meeting. As for the stock,
there is support at the 20-dma at $85 with stronger support at
the 5 and 10-dma's at $82. Set stops under $82 to minimize
losses. Resistance is now up to $90 and then at $5 increments.
Open new positions on a bounce off of $85 or a move above $90.
Initiate new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We
recommend an exit in the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +6.50
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ORCL - Oracle Corporation $79.94 (+9.13)
Despite ongoing inflation worries from a sharp increase in the
Employment Cost Index (ECI), technology shares continued a
weeklong rally, despite consolidation in the S&P 500. Commenting
on this disparity, Barry Hyman, market strategist for Ehrenkrantz
Nussbaum, stated, "The idea is that interest rates will affect
the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest
rate sensitive". The recovery helped Oracle to gain 9.13 points
on the week, an increase of 11%. Advancing with an opening gap on
Friday, shares ran intra-day to our stated resistance of $80,
before closing just lower at $79.94. An advance to resistance did
offer us a nice opportunity to lock in profits for the week. Keep
in mind; a sustained advance through the $80 mark should require
the presence of good daily volume (30.0m shares or better). If
this does unfold, then look for prices to be challenged higher at
the all-time high of $90. As for support, the 50-dma ($76.10)
should be first, with more to follow at the $75 level, reinforced
by the 5-dma of $75.53. To protect against further declines in
the stock, we'll be setting $62 as our stop level. Protect your
gains with trailing stops, based upon your entry point and nearby
support levels.
Picked on April 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +16.44
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PMCS - PMC SIERRA, INC. $191.88 (+46.68)
Locomotive Power at PMC-Sierra. On Thursday, we made reference to
PMCS moving along at a nice clip. On Friday, the profit train
left the station right at 9:30 EST and by early afternoon had
almost reached the double-century mark at $200. PMCS, which
provides its customers with Internetworking systems solutions for
high-speed transmission and networking systems, is perfectly
positioned for more profits. The semiconductor industry is the
buzz on the street right now and is the market-leading sector.
PMCS rose $17 points from Thursday's close and kissed off $199,
before profit takers came in to close the stock at about $192.
Buying was for real as volume almost doubled at 8.8 million
shares. The stock closed at its 50-dma, a close here has not been
seen since 4/7. Additionally this now becomes short-term support
with the new resistance being the $200 mark. A hard bounce off
$190 or a gap open through $200 with continued momentum would be
good entry points. This last week the stock has opened strong at
the open, pulled back about mid-morning, then rallied in the
afternoon session. The psychological level of $200 may be an
invitation for both buyers and sellers. Confirm market direction
before entering a new play. Set stops just below 185.
Picked on April 27th @ $182.62
Change since picked +9.26
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TER - Teradyne $110.00 (+13.69)
Teradyne re-established itself as a solid market leader in the
past week by posting new highs during three of last week's
trading days. With the broader markets still well off of their
highs, TER is showing some of the strongest relative strength in
the market and is attracting the momentum crowd that checks the
new high tables for potential plays. We have covered several of
the Semiconductor Equipment stocks in the past few weeks because
this industry group has some of the strongest fundamentals and
technicals in the market. The growth prospects for TER are huge
because there is a nearly insatiable demand for semiconductors
right now. Semiconductor manufacturers are constantly designing
newer and more complex chips which requires companies such as TER
to continually redesign the equipment necessary to keep up with
all of the innovation. The more complex the equipment the higher
the margin, another positive development for TER. April 18th saw
the release of Teradyne's earnings, which were $0.08 better than
expectations and 500% higher than the earnings in the same
quarter last year. Due to the facts that the stock is trading
over $100 and the propensity for NYSE stocks to announce splits
at these price levels, the Annual Meeting on May 25th looms large
for a possible split announcement for Teradyne. A vote will be
taken at the meeting to increase the number of authorized shares
to make a split possible. The highly publicized Intel analyst
meeting last week was a positive influence for the shares of TER
as INTC put smiles on the attendee's faces by predicting strong
future growth for the industry. In our last update we said that
raising your trailing stop to $105 in the event of the stock
closing above $110 would be a good way to protect your profits.
With the stock closing at exactly $110, we will leave the
decision, as always, up to you. You should, at least, keep a
stop in there at just below $100, just in case we get an
unforeseen market reversal early next week. Barring that, we see
TER continuing to make new highs due to a strong MACD and a RSI
that still has a little room to the upside. We will be exiting
this position if there is a split announcement.
Picked on April 25th @ $103.38
Change since picked +6.62
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VRSN - VERISIGN, INC. $139.38 (+20.88)
Versign, Inc. offers some sobering thoughts in the Internet
industry. If you bought into the market fervor back in early
March, and you bought VRSN; then you have recently learned how
quickly profits come and go in Internet stocks. Down 7% alone in
April, VRSN has been recouping its losses nicely this week.
Having hit a double bottom on April 24th, the stock has risen
better than 50%. Versign ensures secure electronic communication
through the Internet through their trust-based services. To
continue their growth, they are acquiring Network Solutions
(NSOL) for $17 Billion in stock; the highest sum paid for an
Internet company to date. NSOL recently recorded its 14th
consecutive quarter of profitability, an accomplishment worth
bragging about in an industry where "no profits" are so
commonplace. Friday, the stock cut through resistance at the 20-
dma at $130, but was stopped at the next level at $140. Volume
came is about average at 4.4 million shares. Currently support is
the $130 level. If the $140 mark can be defeated with good volume
over 5 million shares, then we may see a test of the 100-dma at
$175. Put a trailing stop at $125 to preserve profits. Once the
exact date for the shareholders meeting is announced we will
advise you accordingly. Confirm new positions with positive
momentum in the NASDAQ and the Internet sector.
Picked on April 25th @ $111.00
Change since picked +28.38
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XLNX - Xilinx $73.25 (+7.50)
XLNX is one of the most popular stocks in the Semiconductor Index
(SOX). When you look at the Company's product line it is easy to
understand why investors like this stock. XLNX makes fully
programmable chips that seem to have a limitless number of
applications. Their chips are used in a wide array of industries
including telecommunications and networking products. These two
industries are among the fastest growing in the world and XLNX
will keep cranking chips out due to the huge demand. Earnings
have reflected this growth. In the last quarter XLNX reported
profits of $0.22 which was a penny ahead of estimates and $0.10
higher than the same quarter a year earlier. XLNX is a
legitimate split candidate because the last two splits were
announced when the stock was trading at $69.63 and $75.00, which
is right were the stock is trading today. The Company has enough
authorized shares for a 3:2 split but would need a vote to
increase shares enough to enact a 2:1. Friday saw XLNX give a
very impressive demonstration of the power of its design
software. The unprecedented speed demonstrated will allow XLNX
to design new chips to continue taking on the current ASIC
industry standard. In our last write-up, we pointed out that the
stock of XLNX enjoyed an outside day on Thursday and that
indications are for a continued advance. Friday was a bit muted
as we witnessed only a small follow through rally. Resistance
was predictably found at the 50-DMA at $75. We still expect XLNX
to challenge that level again and move to the next resistance
level at $80. If we get another ugly Monday, we suggest you
place a stop at the 10-DMA of $67 to avoid a trend reversal.
There are not any major events on the horizon that will force us
to exit this position. We will rely upon trailing stops to help
us exit.
Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked +2.87
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YHOO - Yahoo! $130.25 (+7.75)
Yahoo! Inc is an international Internet media company that
operates a branded network of commerce, media and communication
services to an audience of 100 million users worldwide. Yahoo is
currently the world leader in guiding Internet traffic,
advertising, household and business users. Shares of YHOO traded
higher on Friday thanks to a Media Metrix (MMXI) report showing
Yahoo's page views growing by 54% annually. Additionally, Paine
Webber (PWJ) re-initiated coverage of YHOO with a "buy" rating
and set a $185 target on the stock, citing 85% gross margins and
low capital requirements. The Company has scheduled its Annual
Shareholders Meeting on 5/12 at which time the shareholders will
vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are
hoping for a split announcement shortly after the Annual Meeting.
From a technical standpoint, YHOO has support at the 5-dma at
$123 with stronger support at Thursday's low of $113. Place stops
under $113 to limit losses. Resistance has bumped up to the 20-
dma at $137 and then $140. Initiate new positions on a bounce off
of $123 or a break above $138 on heavy volume. Confirm market
direction, and sector momentum before starting new plays. Use the
DOT index as a barometer. Plan to exit following the Annual
Meeting.
Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked +3.56
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
GE - General Electric $157.25 (-1.25)
General Electric is currently trading off of the long bond. The
Company's exposure to the financial sector has hurt the stock in
light of the recent inflationary economic numbers. On Friday,
shares of GE traded below $157, triggering our stops at $156.88
and we are dropping the stock tonight. If you still have open
positions on GE, set tight stops under $156 and look for an exit
on Monday.
Picked on April 25th @ $166.00
Profit/Loss = -9.13 (-5%) (Stopped out Friday at $156.88)
Best Profit = +1.94 (+1%)
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MU - MICRON TECHNOGLGY, INC. $139.31 (+14.06)
All good things must come to and end. So it goes with Micron
Technology as we are dropping this play ahead of the split on
Tuesday. Monday will be the pay date and our standard date to
exit plays. Today MU challenged its recent high of $143.13 but
missed by less than a dollar on lower than average volume at 4.7
million shares. Despite the Semiconductor Industry currently
leading the market, rather than risk playing through the split;
we will look for other opportunities in this sector. We will
retire MU for now and will advise you in the future of any
trading opportunities as they develop.
Picked on April 23rd @ $125.25
Profit/Loss = +14.06 (+11%)
Best profit = +17.00 (+14%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
None