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Play Updates
Sunday, April 30, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

None NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

ADI - Analog Devices $76.81 (+12.06)

Analog Devices designs, manufactures and markets precision high- performance integrated circuits (ICs) used in analog and digital signal processing. The Company's largest single product group is general-purpose Standard Linear ICs used in equipment and systems for several market segments including communications, computer, industrial, and high-performance consumer electronics. ADI executed a 2:1 stock split on 3/16 and then hit an all-time high of $94.69 on 3/24. The stock tumbled with the NASDAQ for most of April. On Thursday, ADI closed above its 20-dma for the first time since March. We feel that the stock has formed a strong base and is beginning to make a run into their earnings release on 5/17 before the opening bell. We are hoping for a split announcement to come with the earning release. The Company currently has 600 million shares authorized and 353.8 million shares outstanding so they could set 3:2 split or a higher split ratio pending shareholder approval. Going forward, ADI has support at $72 with stronger support at the 5-dma, currently at $68. Resistance is $80 and then $82. Use a bounce of off $72 or a move above $80 on heavy volume to initiate new plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings on 4/16.


Picked on April 30th @ $76.81
Change since picked +0.00
 


AMAT - Applied Materials $101.81 (+8.69)

Applied Materials is a leading provider of semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the semiconductor industry. They also offer maintenance and repair services for their products. This is a semiconductor infrastructure play. The stock has been hot thanks to a recovering worldwide semiconductor market. AMAT hit an all-time high of $115 on 4/7 but fell back to a relative low of $78 one week later. Since then, the stock traded in a range of $90-$100. On Thursday, shares of AMAT broke out of this range, closing above 20-dma and the $100 resistance level. The Company executed a 2:1 stock split on 3/16 and held their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 3/21 when the shareholder approved an increase in authorized shares from 1.1 billion to 2.5 billion. The company currently has 773 million shares outstanding. We are looking for another split when the Company announces earnings on 5/10 after the bell. In the meantime, AMAT has light support at the century mark with technical support at the 20-dma, now at $97. Resistance is just above Friday's high at $106 and then the all-time high of $115. Look for a bounce off of $100 or a move above $106 to open new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of earnings on 5/10.


Picked on April 30th @ $101.81
Change since picked +0.00



MERQ - Mercury Interactive $90.00 (+17.61)

It appears that this stock might have found a lifeboat amid the sinking and possibly disappearing Internet stocks. A lot will be accomplished if the correction of the past two months separates the winners from the losers of the new economy. MERQ just may be a winner but be very careful because things change very quickly and MERQ could just turn into another rat leaving a sinking ship. One strong argument for believing that MERQ will be a winner is because the Company has products that are potentially useful and perhaps necessary for all of the other survivors. MERQ makes testing software that helps Internet companies make sure that their systems are working. This is critical because new customers have very little patience for Web sites that constantly crash. If you want to survive you better fork out the cash to make sure your Web site works and MERQ is there to help out. Surprisingly, MERQ has twice split its shares with the stock trading at similar price levels to where the stock is trading today. There is an Annual Meeting scheduled for May 24th. At this meeting, Shareholders will be voting to increase the number of authorized shares and it is possible that a split announcement could occur on or around that date. Also helping the stock is the fact that the Company is actually profitable earning $0.11 last quarter. Lehman Brothers initiated coverage of MERQ with a Buy rating last week, which certainly did not hurt the price action of the stock. The 50-DMA is sitting right at $90.75 and MERQ nearly ran right smack into it on the close of Friday. A move above that price could be a good entry point. The first support is Friday's low of $85.50 and we would be patient before entering if the stock drops below that price because the next real support is the 10-DMA at 75. Both the MACD and the RSI have turned up so the rally could continue a bit but do not be afraid to get out if things change. We will be exiting this position if there is a split announcement.


Picked on April 30th @ $90.00
Change since picked 0.00 


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

JNPR - JUNIPER NETWORKS INC. $212.68 (+26.56)

Juniper Networks provides high-performance IP networking systems that enables service providers to meet the demands of the rapidly growing Internet. Last week JNPR and Ciena Corporation (CIEN) successfully completed testing of interoperability between 10Gbps optical and IP networking platforms. The union between the two systems makes 10Gbps next-generation optical networks and pure 10G IP service over glass, a reality for service providers. JNPR enjoyed a profitable week trading up almost 70 points from Monday's low at $155. This Thursday, May 4th, shareholders will meet for final approval of the 2 for 1 split scheduled for June 16th. Support is now the 20-dma at $205, then the psychological $200 mark. Resistance is overhead at the 50-dma at $240. Friday's volume was slightly above average at 3.6 million shares. We would like to see more conviction take the stock higher. Perhaps anticipation of this week's meeting with bolster enthusiasm. We would look for a bounce off $200-$205 on good volume as a good entry point. The last 4 trading sessions the stock had traded up at least 10 points during the first hour of trading. Be careful to confirm the momentum in the NASDAQ along with the Internet sector before entering a new position. Friday's NASDAQ volume was the 7th session of below-normal volume and thus the rally is still suspect. Place stops just below $200 to limit losses.


Picked on April 27th @ $208.94
Change since picked +3.74



NEWP - Newport Corporation $121.31 (+14.56)

As the optical sector is once again starting to come back to life, we're looking at NEWP to outperform many of its peers. Our reasons for this are both fundamental and technical. Fundamentally, the company just reported its strongest quarter ever, more than tripling profits. Importantly, the company actually has earnings, unlike many of its optical competitors. As for the chart, NEWP just broke above its down trendline, which is a bullish indication that further advances are more probable. Currently, the stock advanced nicely on Friday, soaring near its 50-dma during the day, before closing at $121.31. The stock will be faced with initial resistance along the 50-dma ($130.72) before challenging further opposition at the century and a half mark. Good volume (350k or better) will likely have to be present, in order for NEWP to stage further advances through these resistance points. As for support, look for the down trendline to now provide support ($114-115). Just lower, the 20- dma ($110.29) should also help to brace any declines. However, given the volatility of this sector, we're recommending that stops be placed below the 5-dma ($109.06), to protect against a meltdown. Continue to use trailing stops to lock in profits.


Picked on April 27th @ $116.25
Change since picked +5.06



PAYX - Paychex $52.63 (+1.88)

A very small pullback continues for PAYX but we still want to hold this position because we suspect that the stock will strongly outperform the rest of the market in the event of another pullback. PAYX is a core long-term holding for many institutions because the stock has had a very solid performance record for years. As the leader of the payroll management business, PAYX has greatly benefited from this surging economy that has seen an incredible rise in the creation of small to medium sized businesses, exactly the targeted demographic for the efficient services that Paychex offers. PAYX has one of the most impressive split records among all public stocks. PAYX has announced a 3:2 split for six consecutive years and sure enough another split was announced on April 13th. The payable date for the latest split is May 22nd. Because of the split and a solid long-term uptrend we expect that PAYX will be able to climb into new high territory in the coming weeks. PAYX successfully tested the 50-DMA on Friday and closed above it. The average is at $50.50 and we suggest protecting yourself with a stop just below it at $50. RSI is right in the middle and is not offering any indication. The MACD is positive however, which offers us some encouragement that a rally may be soon at hand. We will be exiting this position no later than just before the payable date of May 22nd.


Picked on April 25th @ $55.31
Change since picked -2.68



RMBS - Rambus Incorporated $230.00 (+62.50)

The penetration of Rambus DRAM (RDRAM) into the personal computer market this year, should create quite a stir for other manufacturers in this market. Having greater scalability than SDRAM and DDR DRAM providers, RDRAM is much more adapt for meeting the needs and speeds of future microprocessors. Understanding this competitive edge, Intel has decided to use RDRAM in its high scale i820 chipset. Undoubtedly, this helped RMBS shares run wild earlier in the year, gaining and unreal 403.56 points! Recently, a month long consolidation has begun to show new life. Advancing from a strong gap on Friday, shares were aided by a further progression in the NASDAQ composite. Adding 18.19 points, the stock continued its march to resistance along the $250 mark. More strength will likely encounter added resistance at the 50-dma ($268.40). Look to take profits at resistance points, or consider adding quick positions when prices advance through these levels. On the downside, anticipate firm support at the double century mark to remain intact and offer good intra-day buying points. Secondary support should be followed at the $175 mark, bolstered by the 100-dma of $173.76. The volatility of this stock is tremendous, as such; don't hesitate to lock in quick gains as profits. Keep tight stops below support levels to avoid excessive losses.


Picked on April 27th @ $211.75
Change since picked +18.25



TFS - Three-Five Systems $86.50 (-5.87)

Residing on the NYSE was an advantage for TFS all week but it appears that it was a handicap on Friday as sellers took control of the Exchange and TFS suffered a sizable round of profit taking. A small amount of concern probably developed when the stock rallied to $99 but failed to move into triple digits on Thursday. The key factors that initially attracted us to this play still exist. TFS is a major supplier of LCD and LED products that are widely used for office product displays and mobile devices. Sales of the latter have been huge and with new products coming out all of the time we fully expect TFS to continue lighting up the bottom line with solid earnings. One new product that seems to have piqued the interest of investors is TFS's microdisplay technology which is currently under development at Nikon for use in the next generation of rear- projection televisions and computer monitors. There is also a split coming up. The 3:2 split was announced on Tuesday and will be payable on May 12th. Friday's selloff may have stopped some of you out at the suggested price of $89. The drop may be due to the news item that TFS intends to sell 2.6 million shares in a secondary offering after the split. The initial suggested offering price is $51.67 per share. That price could increase if the stock remains strong. Even the strongest looking stocks have turned on a dime in this market and taking profits is never a bad experience. If you are still in this play we suggest placing a stop at $80, which is just below the 10-DMA. New positions can be placed as long as the stock stays above $81 in the hopes that there will be another move towards $100. Although still positive, the MACD may be a bit high here and RSI is a bit overbought. Because of these factors the pullback was not terribly surprising. That said, TFS is still in a very strong uptrend. We will be exiting this position before the May 12th split date.


Picked on April 25th @ $81.88
Change since picked +4.62



TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INC. $162.88 (+17.88)

Yee-Haw! Texas Instruments enjoyed a great week along with many other Semiconductors stocks. As old economy stocks and those most sensitive to higher interest rates suffered, technology stocks like TXN had a glorious week. As a worldwide supplier of semiconductors and semiconductor related products, TXN is nestled in the leading industry in this current market. According to an article in Investor's Business Daily on Friday, the place to be during a market rotation is in the industry group, which is flexing its muscles. This theory of sector rotation has been back tested back to the 1960's with great accuracy. In Thursday's report, we noted that TXN would have to retest $169 as its next resistance. On Friday it was tested but not conquered on lower than average volume of 5 million shares. We therefore keep $169 as our resistance. Support is the now 50-dma at $160. A good bounce off $160 or a strong move through $170 would be good entry points. Confirm market direction before entering a new play. We will have a stop in place just below the 50-dma at $159.


Picked on April 25th @ $152.00
Change since picked +10.88



ZOMX - Zomax Incorporated $47.31 (+4.37)

What makes Zomax such a successful company is their ability to offer large-scale companies all of the little important things that help their business to run. For example, when a ZOMX customer like Microsoft, needs to ship out a software upgrade, ZOMX will analyze and perform the warehousing, distribution and fulfillment programs to ensure a "just-in-time" product delivery. Investors who have seen the phenomenal growth of ZOMX (225% increase in first quarter earnings) have recognized the importance of their services to large businesses. Adding an additional 4.37 points this week, shares managed to base their recovery off strong support at the 200-dma ($39.46). Light support should now be found near the $45 level, as reinforced by the 5-dma ($44.11). As for the upside, if firm resistance along the half-century mark, bolstered by the 20 and 100-dma's ($49.82 and $49.53) can be penetrated, then anticipate a possible run to more resistance along the 50-dma ($53.30). Still higher, resistance at the $60 level should be expected to be firm. Remember to confirm strength in the broader market prior to opening new plays. Monday's payable date of May 8th will require us to exit by Friday's close (5th).


Picked on April 23rd @ $42.94
Change since picked +4.37


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

ALTR - Altera $102.25 (+11.06)

Altera designs, manufactures and markets programmable logic devices (PLDs) and associated development tools. The Company was the first supplier of Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) programmable logic devices that are used for high-speed, high-density and low-power applications, commonly found in wireless phones and handheld devices. On Friday, ALTR fell $3.75 on average volume. The stock stayed above the century mark but we are somewhat concerned because the semiconductor sector rallied on Friday but ALTR did not. However, ALTR was just at an all-time high and it is not surprising to see some consolidation before it breaks out. The Company's Annual Shareholder Meeting is scheduled for 5/10 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are looking for a split announcement following the meeting. Going forward, support is holding at the century mark. Additional technical support is the 5-dma at $99 and then the 10-dma at $94. Set hard stops under $93, as we will exit this play if it trades under $93. Resistance showed up at $108 with heavier resistance at $110. Start new plays on a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $108 on strong volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Plan to exit shortly after the Annual Meeting, assuming we get split announcement. If not, exit in front of earnings in July.


Picked on April 25th @ $98.88
Change since picked +3.38



AMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES $87.50 (+9.25)

Chips Ahoy! Advanced Micro Devices couldn't be positioned any better under current market conditions. The California Semiconductor manufacturer had a good week with several factors helping to bolster prices. First, MU is positioned in the current leading industry, The Semiconductor Industry. Secondly, the company had earnings that doubled the previous year's results, and finally they appear ready for a stock split. Friday the company announced it would be having an annual meeting on May 25th. At that meeting they will ask shareholders to approve an increase in shares from 250M to 750M. This we believe will be the catalyst for a stock split. Friday the stock achieved another new high at $88.87 on 50% increased volume at 7.9 million shares. We now see resistance at $90, but a break through this level on good volume, might easily see a jump to the century mark. Light support is at the 5-dma at $85 and the 10-dma at $80. A hard bounce off $80 or a strong mover through $90 would be a good entry point. We would place stops just below $80. Confirm new position with the SOX index and the NASDAQ.


Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +$21.50



BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $124.00 (+19.00)

Given the current inflationary worries, it's surprising how well the NASDAQ composite was able to buck the trend of a declining Dow Jones throughout the week. This flight back into technology shares helped BRCD add an additional 9 points, or 7.82% on Friday's trading. Providing a nice boost to the advance, a buy rating initiated by CE Unterberg Towbin late Thursday, helped set the stage for Friday's opening gap. Prices opened right at our stated resistance at $120 and advanced intra-day to $129.75, before settling off at $124. A close above the $120 mark now offers support at this level and sets the stage for a potential advance to the 50-dma ($140.33). If prices continue to advance through this level, expect for shares to meet a challenging wall of resistance at the buck fifty mark. Look to open positions when advances through resistance are adjoined by good volume (3.0m or better). As mentioned, look for initial support to now come at the $120 mark, which will be followed by more support at the $110 level, bolstered by the 100-dma of $111.10. Plan exit tactics prior to the earnings date of May 17th, and remember to protect profits by trailing stops.


Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked +9.00



BRCM - Broadcom $172.38 (+19.88)

Broadcom Corp. is a leading provider of highly integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission. The Company makes integrated circuits for a wide variety of broadband communications equipment, including cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking equipment, and digital broadcast equipment. The stock is having some trouble at the 20-dma. Shares of BRCM spent most of the day trading above the 20-dma but it reversed direction late in the day and failed to stay above this critical resistance level. Broadcom held its Annual Shareholder Meeting on Thursday but they did not announce a split. Hopefully, we will get one early next week. However, due to the recent market volatility, they may decide to wait until their next earnings release in July. In the meantime, there is light support at $170 with stronger support on the 5-dma at $161 and then $160. Place hard stops under $160 to lock in profits. Resistance remains at the 20-dma ($174) and then $180. Look for a bounce off of $170 or a move above the 20-dma to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in the session following a split announcement or in front of earnings in July. There may be some disappointed investors if we do not get a split on Monday, so we recommend an exit on a dip below $160.


Picked on April 23rd @ $152.50
Change since picked +19.88



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $173.00 (+11.31)

Question: Are you comfortable conducting business over the Internet? If you are, chances are it is because of the innovative security software developed by CHKP. If you are not, then CHKP is still working to beat the new cyber age criminal in the hopes of instilling enough confidence in the medium so that everybody is comfortable exchanging sensitive data through the Information Highway. CHKP is fast becoming one of the "winners" of the Internet revolution and the fact that the Company is profitable has not been ignored by investors. CHKP has staged a nice comeback from the market meltdown of last month and seems poised to recapture more of its losses in the near future. CHKP reported a solid quarter earlier this month coming in at $0.40 a share which was five cents ahead of estimates. CHKP announced a split in December when the stock was trading just below $200. We expect split anticipation to begin if there is any announcement of a pending B of D meeting. In the meantime, we will attempt to ride the current rally as far as it will take us. We were a bit disappointed in CHKP's failure to move higher on Friday after it ran into resistance just under the weekly high of $185. Because of the pullback we are recommending that you place a stop at the 20-DMA of $165 to avoid a major selloff. You may wish to wait for a bounce off of that price before initiating a new position or perhaps waiting for a break above the $185 resistance. We will exit this position if there is a split announcement.


Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked -6.00



CIEN - CIENA CORPORATION, INC. $123.63 (+26.63)

Busy Signal? Ciena Corporation is a global provider of data- communications and Tele-communications for the optical networking equipment industry. Their clients include Internet Service Providers (ISP) and long-distance carriers. After a stellar week with gains of better than 20%, CIEN met with resistance at the 50-dma on Friday. We mentioned in Thursday's report that $130 would pose resistance and in fact it did. We are better than two weeks away from earnings scheduled for a confirmed date of May 18th. Consensus estimates are for a profit of .10 cents per share, .08 cents better than the same quarter last year. If CIEN has begun an earnings run, then we would like to see the 50-dma sliced through on better than 6 million shares. A move through this level could see further gains on up to the $150 level. Currently, support can be found at the $120 level. In the event of near term profit taking, we are placing stops just under the 5-dma at $115.


Picked on April 25th @ $105.87
Change since picked +17.76



CMGI - CMGI Inc. $71.25 (+13.56)

The bottom fishers were out trolling last week and one of the trophies they caught was CMGI. It is not too surprising that money looking for an Internet play found its way into this former leader. CMGI is a sort of mutual fund of the Internet industry with majority holdings in many start up and more mature companies. Perhaps the most visible holding for CMGI is AltaVista, a portal, commerce and ISP site on the Internet. There were several news items last week that indicated phenomenal growth for AltaVista, especially for its new free ISP service which has been signing up new customers at a 10,000 per day clip since it debuted seven months ago. Previous splits have been announced when the stock was trading as low as $91.38 and as high as $248.38, so this is not a split play at these levels, yet. On the surface this comeback appears a bit stronger than the last bounce. Be careful though, the last bounce saw the stock give up its gains very quickly. There is some support at Friday's low price of $66.50. There is better support at the 5 and 10-DMA which is sitting just under $62. CMGI enjoyed four consecutive days of higher highs. We will stick with this play as long as the comeback continues. You would be wise to keep raising your stops as the stock advances in order to secure your profits. The MACD just turned to the upside so a sustainable rally is possible and the RSI is just starting to recover from extremely oversold levels. We will exit this position if there is a split announcement but more likely we will exit this position when momentum subsides or reverses.


Picked on April 27th @ $66.19
Change since picked +5.06



INKT - Inktomi Corporation $153.94 (+24.81)

Continuing a sharp rally off its 200-dma, shares of the leading provider of scalable software applications for the Internet, Inktomi, finished off the week with a stellar increase of 24.84 points. Following a strong open for many technology shares on Friday and good momentum in many of the Internet-related issues, the stock opened higher with a gap above the $150 resistance mark. Holding above this level on the day, resistance should now become support. Further support should be noted at the $140 level, which is supported by the 20-dma ($141.37). However, if additional gains can continue to be made, then prepare for $160 to offer the next resistance. Reinforced by the 50-dma ($161.59), the $160 level may present a good opportunity to lock in profits. Look for market strength to confirm rises through resistance or sharp bounces off support, prior to opening new positions. Also, use trailing stops to lock in profits.


Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Change since picked +12.00



LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $67.38 (+4.44)

Lattice Semiconductor is the world's largest supplier of high performance programmable logic devices (PLDs) and related development system software. The Company is the inventor of in- system programmable (ISP) PLDs which are standard semiconductor components that can be configured by the end customer as specific logic functions, reducing the design cycle and product development costs. The stock broke through major resistance at the 20-dma on Friday and closed at the intra-day high and just below the 50-dma. This is a good sign as we are now just 2 sessions away from their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2. We are looking for a split announcement out of the meeting. For now, LSCC has support at the 5 and 10-dma's at $62 with stronger support at $60. Set stops under $60 as protection. There is resistance at $70 and then $74. Use a bounce off of $62 or a move above $70 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Look for an exit in the session following a split announcement.


Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +4.44



LVLT - Level 3 Communications $89.00 (+5.63)

Level 3 Communications holding company is engaged in information services, communications and coal mining businesses throughout the world. The Company provides systems integration services enabling its customers to implement cost-effective information services. They also offer reengineering services used to convert legacy software for use in modern networked computing platforms. The stock moved higher on Friday after a LVLT spokesperson said that Walter Scott, Jr., chairman of LVLT, intended to sell 500,000 of the stock that he acquired in connection with a series of transactions that resulted in the separation of its construction business and the diversified business of Level 3 into two independent companies. He went on to state that the sale represents 1% of his holdings in the stock. The company is holding its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/22 and we are looking for a split announcement following the meeting. As for the stock, there is support at the 20-dma at $85 with stronger support at the 5 and 10-dma's at $82. Set stops under $82 to minimize losses. Resistance is now up to $90 and then at $5 increments. Open new positions on a bounce off of $85 or a move above $90. Initiate new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit in the session following a split announcement.


Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +6.50



ORCL - Oracle Corporation $79.94 (+9.13)

Despite ongoing inflation worries from a sharp increase in the Employment Cost Index (ECI), technology shares continued a weeklong rally, despite consolidation in the S&P 500. Commenting on this disparity, Barry Hyman, market strategist for Ehrenkrantz Nussbaum, stated, "The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive". The recovery helped Oracle to gain 9.13 points on the week, an increase of 11%. Advancing with an opening gap on Friday, shares ran intra-day to our stated resistance of $80, before closing just lower at $79.94. An advance to resistance did offer us a nice opportunity to lock in profits for the week. Keep in mind; a sustained advance through the $80 mark should require the presence of good daily volume (30.0m shares or better). If this does unfold, then look for prices to be challenged higher at the all-time high of $90. As for support, the 50-dma ($76.10) should be first, with more to follow at the $75 level, reinforced by the 5-dma of $75.53. To protect against further declines in the stock, we'll be setting $62 as our stop level. Protect your gains with trailing stops, based upon your entry point and nearby support levels.


Picked on April 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +16.44



PMCS - PMC SIERRA, INC. $191.88 (+46.68)

Locomotive Power at PMC-Sierra. On Thursday, we made reference to PMCS moving along at a nice clip. On Friday, the profit train left the station right at 9:30 EST and by early afternoon had almost reached the double-century mark at $200. PMCS, which provides its customers with Internetworking systems solutions for high-speed transmission and networking systems, is perfectly positioned for more profits. The semiconductor industry is the buzz on the street right now and is the market-leading sector. PMCS rose $17 points from Thursday's close and kissed off $199, before profit takers came in to close the stock at about $192. Buying was for real as volume almost doubled at 8.8 million shares. The stock closed at its 50-dma, a close here has not been seen since 4/7. Additionally this now becomes short-term support with the new resistance being the $200 mark. A hard bounce off $190 or a gap open through $200 with continued momentum would be good entry points. This last week the stock has opened strong at the open, pulled back about mid-morning, then rallied in the afternoon session. The psychological level of $200 may be an invitation for both buyers and sellers. Confirm market direction before entering a new play. Set stops just below 185.


Picked on April 27th @ $182.62
Change since picked +9.26



TER - Teradyne $110.00 (+13.69)

Teradyne re-established itself as a solid market leader in the past week by posting new highs during three of last week's trading days. With the broader markets still well off of their highs, TER is showing some of the strongest relative strength in the market and is attracting the momentum crowd that checks the new high tables for potential plays. We have covered several of the Semiconductor Equipment stocks in the past few weeks because this industry group has some of the strongest fundamentals and technicals in the market. The growth prospects for TER are huge because there is a nearly insatiable demand for semiconductors right now. Semiconductor manufacturers are constantly designing newer and more complex chips which requires companies such as TER to continually redesign the equipment necessary to keep up with all of the innovation. The more complex the equipment the higher the margin, another positive development for TER. April 18th saw the release of Teradyne's earnings, which were $0.08 better than expectations and 500% higher than the earnings in the same quarter last year. Due to the facts that the stock is trading over $100 and the propensity for NYSE stocks to announce splits at these price levels, the Annual Meeting on May 25th looms large for a possible split announcement for Teradyne. A vote will be taken at the meeting to increase the number of authorized shares to make a split possible. The highly publicized Intel analyst meeting last week was a positive influence for the shares of TER as INTC put smiles on the attendee's faces by predicting strong future growth for the industry. In our last update we said that raising your trailing stop to $105 in the event of the stock closing above $110 would be a good way to protect your profits. With the stock closing at exactly $110, we will leave the decision, as always, up to you. You should, at least, keep a stop in there at just below $100, just in case we get an unforeseen market reversal early next week. Barring that, we see TER continuing to make new highs due to a strong MACD and a RSI that still has a little room to the upside. We will be exiting this position if there is a split announcement.


Picked on April 25th @ $103.38
Change since picked +6.62



VRSN - VERISIGN, INC. $139.38 (+20.88)

Versign, Inc. offers some sobering thoughts in the Internet industry. If you bought into the market fervor back in early March, and you bought VRSN; then you have recently learned how quickly profits come and go in Internet stocks. Down 7% alone in April, VRSN has been recouping its losses nicely this week. Having hit a double bottom on April 24th, the stock has risen better than 50%. Versign ensures secure electronic communication through the Internet through their trust-based services. To continue their growth, they are acquiring Network Solutions (NSOL) for $17 Billion in stock; the highest sum paid for an Internet company to date. NSOL recently recorded its 14th consecutive quarter of profitability, an accomplishment worth bragging about in an industry where "no profits" are so commonplace. Friday, the stock cut through resistance at the 20- dma at $130, but was stopped at the next level at $140. Volume came is about average at 4.4 million shares. Currently support is the $130 level. If the $140 mark can be defeated with good volume over 5 million shares, then we may see a test of the 100-dma at $175. Put a trailing stop at $125 to preserve profits. Once the exact date for the shareholders meeting is announced we will advise you accordingly. Confirm new positions with positive momentum in the NASDAQ and the Internet sector.


Picked on April 25th @ $111.00
Change since picked +28.38



XLNX - Xilinx $73.25 (+7.50)

XLNX is one of the most popular stocks in the Semiconductor Index (SOX). When you look at the Company's product line it is easy to understand why investors like this stock. XLNX makes fully programmable chips that seem to have a limitless number of applications. Their chips are used in a wide array of industries including telecommunications and networking products. These two industries are among the fastest growing in the world and XLNX will keep cranking chips out due to the huge demand. Earnings have reflected this growth. In the last quarter XLNX reported profits of $0.22 which was a penny ahead of estimates and $0.10 higher than the same quarter a year earlier. XLNX is a legitimate split candidate because the last two splits were announced when the stock was trading at $69.63 and $75.00, which is right were the stock is trading today. The Company has enough authorized shares for a 3:2 split but would need a vote to increase shares enough to enact a 2:1. Friday saw XLNX give a very impressive demonstration of the power of its design software. The unprecedented speed demonstrated will allow XLNX to design new chips to continue taking on the current ASIC industry standard. In our last write-up, we pointed out that the stock of XLNX enjoyed an outside day on Thursday and that indications are for a continued advance. Friday was a bit muted as we witnessed only a small follow through rally. Resistance was predictably found at the 50-DMA at $75. We still expect XLNX to challenge that level again and move to the next resistance level at $80. If we get another ugly Monday, we suggest you place a stop at the 10-DMA of $67 to avoid a trend reversal. There are not any major events on the horizon that will force us to exit this position. We will rely upon trailing stops to help us exit.


Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked +2.87



YHOO - Yahoo! $130.25 (+7.75)

Yahoo! Inc is an international Internet media company that operates a branded network of commerce, media and communication services to an audience of 100 million users worldwide. Yahoo is currently the world leader in guiding Internet traffic, advertising, household and business users. Shares of YHOO traded higher on Friday thanks to a Media Metrix (MMXI) report showing Yahoo's page views growing by 54% annually. Additionally, Paine Webber (PWJ) re-initiated coverage of YHOO with a "buy" rating and set a $185 target on the stock, citing 85% gross margins and low capital requirements. The Company has scheduled its Annual Shareholders Meeting on 5/12 at which time the shareholders will vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement shortly after the Annual Meeting. From a technical standpoint, YHOO has support at the 5-dma at $123 with stronger support at Thursday's low of $113. Place stops under $113 to limit losses. Resistance has bumped up to the 20- dma at $137 and then $140. Initiate new positions on a bounce off of $123 or a break above $138 on heavy volume. Confirm market direction, and sector momentum before starting new plays. Use the DOT index as a barometer. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting.


Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked +3.56


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

GE - General Electric $157.25 (-1.25)

General Electric is currently trading off of the long bond. The Company's exposure to the financial sector has hurt the stock in light of the recent inflationary economic numbers. On Friday, shares of GE traded below $157, triggering our stops at $156.88 and we are dropping the stock tonight. If you still have open positions on GE, set tight stops under $156 and look for an exit on Monday.


Picked on April 25th @ $166.00

Profit/Loss = -9.13 (-5%) (Stopped out Friday at $156.88)
Best Profit = +1.94 (+1%)



MU - MICRON TECHNOGLGY, INC. $139.31 (+14.06)

All good things must come to and end. So it goes with Micron Technology as we are dropping this play ahead of the split on Tuesday. Monday will be the pay date and our standard date to exit plays. Today MU challenged its recent high of $143.13 but missed by less than a dollar on lower than average volume at 4.7 million shares. Despite the Semiconductor Industry currently leading the market, rather than risk playing through the split; we will look for other opportunities in this sector. We will retire MU for now and will advise you in the future of any trading opportunities as they develop.


Picked on April 23rd @ $125.25

Profit/Loss = +14.06 (+11%)
Best profit = +17.00 (+14%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

None

 


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