Commentary
Sector Watch


Play of the Day
Current Plays
Watch List
New Plays
Play Updates
Drops


Announcements
Current Split Catalog
New Candidates
Candidates Index
Expected Splits
Splits 101


Play Results
Split Predictions


Ask the Trader
Trading 101
Bookstore
Glossary
Dow Charts
FAQ


Splits
SEC Filings
Coming Economic Events
BoD Meetings
Earnings


Chat Room
Message Boards


Email Newsletter
Author Search
Advertise With Us
Change Password
Contact Us

Play Updates
Thursday, April 27, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

JNPR - Juniper Networks Inc. $208.94 +13.31 (+22.81)

Juniper Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of Internet infrastructure solutions for Internet service providers and other telecommunications service providers, delivering next generation Internet backbone routers specifically designed for service provider networks. Unlike conventional routers, Juniper's Internet backbone routers are specifically designed to accommodate the size and scope of the Internet while other conventional routers are inadequate in this capacity. Having completed a full 50% retracement from its March highs, JNPR now seems poised for a split run. On April 13th, the company announced plans to effect a 2:1 stock split, payable on June 16th. Final approval from shareholders will come at their May meeting scheduled for next Thursday, May 4th. On 4/18 the company beat earnings by .03 cents per share. That same day, JNPR announced the introduction of a new chip for its networking equipment that can prevent intruders from attacking its website. The chip could prevent the denial of service attack that crippled many websites recently. Today the stock closed above 205 on better than average volume, a closing price challenged but not conquered on May 19th. Support is now established, although light, at $200. The 100-dma below the current position at $185.00. Resistance is overhead at $210, the 20-dma. Look for confirmation in the NASDAQ and the Internet sector when entering a new play. A strong bounce off the important psychological level of $200 or a big volume moves up though resistance would make a good entry point. Exercise caution on Friday, as this has been a very volatile week for traders. NASDAQ volume was light on Thursday indicating that buyers are still cautious in the face of today's economic news. Use confirming signal before entering any new plays.



Picked on April 27th @ $208.94
Change since picked 0.00



NEWP - Newport Corporation $116.25 +9.25 (+9.50)

As fiber optics brings us into the communication gateway of the next century, Newport (NEWP) is well positioned in this arena for the future growth that will follow. A maker of instruments and components for laser and fiber optic solutions, NEWP has found that demand for its products have translated into solid gains for its stock. Momentum in the optical networking group is picking up once again. On May 17th, shareholders will vote to increase authorized shares, in accordance with a board approved 3:1 stock split. In anticipation of more shares being authorized, and as today's price movement suggests, a recovery may be in the works. Given further advances, we'll look first at $120, which is the 30-dma, then to the 50-dma ($130.77) to present the primary wall of resistance. On the downside, there is light support at $110, then $100. The meeting is several weeks off, so we will watch our chart indications closely. Be sure to use trailing stops to protect profits, or place your loss limits under support in case the broad market turns against us.



Picked on April 27th @ $116.25
Change since picked 0.00



RMBS - Rambus Incorporated $211.75 +20.69 (+44.25)

Capturing massive revenue from the video game market, Rambus (RMBS) is set to keep its position as the leader in high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology. To do this, RMBS is planning an explosive entry for its DRAM's in the PC market this year. Analysts currently estimate that Rambus-based PC's will be included in 10% of all personal computer sales this year! Fueled by these strong growth prospects and lofty stock price the Board of Directors were prompted to announce a 4:1 stock split with a payable date tentatively set for 6/14. As such, a special meeting will be held on 5/23, in which a proposal to increase the number of authorized shares to 500 million will be voted on. Currently, the company has 60 million shares that are authorized and 23.8 million shares outstanding. With such a positive outlook this year, it's hard to imagine that just last month shares have declined from $471.00. However, this large decline provides us with an excellent opportunity to recapture lost ground. Currently trading at $211.00, RMBS shares have shown a steady volume improvement all week, hinting that a recovery may be in the works. We'll look for further advances to meet primary resistance at the $250 mark and just higher at the 50-dma ($266.62). As for support, the double century mark should be noted as a good level for intra-day buying. Further down, look to the $175 mark, reinforced by the 10-dma ($175.62) to be swift. This play is not for the faint of heart. RMBS is a very volatile stock and can easily swing in 20 point ranges both up or down. Plan your stops and consider your risk tolerance before entering the play. If we do get the upside movement that we expect, protect your profits by selling too soon if necessary. It's highly unlikely that we will hold this stock until the payable date, as the time horizon is too far out. Therefore, use support levels as your guide when setting stops.



Picked on April 27th @ $211.75
Change since picked 0.00



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $115.00 +5.12 (+10.00)

The key for Brocade has been their ability to continually improve Fibre Channel switching solutions for Storage Area Networks (SANS). This strategy has paid off well, as several major clients have been attracted to the company's rapidly growing SilkWorm family of switches. As for the capital structure of the company, BRCD currently has 107.8 million shares outstanding and a float of 6.6 million. On April 20th, the Board of Directors agreed to authorize an increase in the number of shares from 200 million to 400 million. The last couple of weeks, BRCD has challenged the $120 resistance level, but has yet to be successful. An advance through this level should trigger a breakout and set the stage for initial entry. If $120 can be beaten the next resistance area is at the 50-dma ($140.11). However, if weakness in the NASDAQ further plagues BRCD shares, then look for light support at $110, then the 5-dma at $106.84. Obviously, $100 would be psychological support for the stock. Target your entries when prices bounce off support or run swiftly through resistance levels. Design exit strategies in front of the earnings date of May 17th, as per our normal policy. Trail your stops to protect profits.



Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked 0.00



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $179.00 +8.00 (+17.31)

Time to go after one of our favorites again. CHKP should be one of the major technological leaders that will emerge from this correction and continue to flourish. Ensuring the security of the Internet could be the single most important issue concerning this infant industry. CHKP designs the software that attempts to stay one step ahead of the new breed of cyber criminals. This very serious cops and robbers drama should enable CHKP to grow into a highly profitable Company. CHKP is one of those extremely rare Internet Software companies that are already profitable and that fact has helped the stock to maintain a good chunk of its value. Earlier this month, CHKP reported solid 1st Quarter with earnings of $0.40, beating the Street's estimates by 5 cents. CHKP's last split announcement occurred back in December during a B of D meeting with the stock trading at $192.81. We will continue to monitor the wires looking for any sort of meetings that could trigger another split. The past two months have been a period of extreme volatility for the shares of CHKP. 30-point intraday moves are commonplace so please be wary of that fact when determining a position size, with your risk tolerance in mind. The last three NASDAQ dumps have seen CHKP create a pattern of higher lows. The down spike prices were; $116, $128.63 and $134.75. This is an easy pattern to discern. The resistance for the past two weeks has been established at approximately $185. A move above that price and it would seem likely that CHKP is ready to tackle the $200 resistance point. The MACD momentum indicator turned positive today and the RSI short-term oscillator has plenty of room before indicating an overbought condition. Patient investors could attempt to buy pullbacks into the $160's, but you could miss the next move if you are too patient. Momentum traders may want to purchase a break above $185. We will exit this position if there is a split announcement.



Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked 0.00



CMGI - CMGI Inc. $66.19 +8.19 (+8.50)

A huge move today in the share price of CMGI leads us to believe that the worst may be over for this Internet incubator. CMGI is perhaps the most famous and successful investor in the emerging Internet markets. In some ways, CMGI is a sort of mutual fund of Internet stocks with its majority holdings in numerous Internet subsidiaries, the highest profile one is perhaps AltaVista, a fast growing and well known search and commerce site. Today it was announced that AltaVista has grown its number of unique worldwide users to 60 million. This phenomenal growth and presence was reflected in today's price appreciation of CMGI's stock. AltaVista has been adding about 10,000 new subscribers a day to its free ISP service launched just seven months ago. Honestly, this play really is not a legitimate split candidate for us at these levels. We really like this play because CMGI is an unquestioned leader and the stock is bouncing off of substantial support that goes all the way back to October. CMGI has lost fully 2 thirds of its value during this correction and we like the risk/reward nature of this play. Bottom line, it appears that everyone who wanted out of this stock is probably gone and the path of least resistance is higher. There is a lot of technical resistance however. Look for the stock to struggle at $70 followed by $90 and then $100. There is solid support at $55 and we suggest not letting the stock run too far below that price before exiting. Picking bottoms is a tricky business but the MACD trend indicator looks like it is ready to turn up and the RSI short-term indicator is at an extremely oversold level. Our target date is the earnings report due on March 9th after the market.



Picked on April 27th @ $66.19
Change since picked 0.00



PMCS - PMC-Sierra Inc. $182.62 +12.63 (+37.43)

All Aboard! PMC-Sierra isn't a train company, though it's been moving at a nice clip lately; and they don't have a conductor, well not exactly. PMC-Sierra designs, develops, markets and supports high-performance semiconductor networking solutions for use in the high speed transmission and networking systems of the global telecommunications and date communications infrastructure. On June 15th the company will hold their annual shareholders meeting and ask for an increase in shares to 900 million. If approved, they will have more than enough to effect a stock split. Last weekend Barron's magazine rated PMCS the #2 company based on its survey of 500 companies. The article rated companies based on top-line revenue growth, stock-market performance, and real cash returns on capital invested. Monday, the stock challenged its upper trend line from the recent decline and won. The stock now appears ready for a healthy run back to its former levels. Volume continues to be good, trading 2 and 3 times normal levels of 4.7 million all week. The most immediate obstacle is the 50-dma right overhead at 190, we'd like to see that level conquered with good volume as one place to open a position. The stock has been wildly volatile with 15-20 point swings. A good bounce off 170-175 would also provide a nice entry point. Above that, the psychological 200 line would pose the next resistance. Support is light at 170 then 165. Set stops just below 160 to limit losses.



Picked on April 27th @ $182.62
Change since picked 0.00



SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

GE - General Electric $161.50 -1.75 (+3.00)

Shareholders of General Electric approved the increase in authorized shares necessary for the 3:1 stock split at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on Wednesday. The Company has set a 5/5 payable date for the split. They also sold $500 million in four- year notes on Wednesday. The stock fell on the news and inflation fears, which were confirmed on Thursday morning. GE slid further on Thursday but held above support and was moving higher into the closing bell. Due to the timing of the payable date, we may see a breakout next week, as we are only 6 trading days away from the payable date. However, all bets are off in a negative market. Going forward, GE has light support at $160 with stronger support at the 10-dma, now up to $157. Set hard stops at just below $157 to avoid additional losses. Resistance is just above the all-time high at $168 and then $170. Look for a bounce off of $160 or a breakout above $168 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market sentiment before opening new positions as the stock has exposure to several market sectors. Plan to exit by 5/4 or on a dip below $157.



Picked on April 25th @ $166.00
Change since picked -4.50



MU - MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. $135.00 +6.25 (+8.75)

I love it when a plan comes together. A phrase often repeated by George Peppard during the 1980's on the series The "A" Team. We too love it when a plan comes together. Our plan was to capture some profit from Micron in advance of their split scheduled for next Monday. Since breaking out of a 3-month trading channel back in March, MU has more than doubled in price. As demand for chips continues we may see further gains. Today, MU tacked on another 10 points before handing some back at the close. Once again volume for the Semiconductor Company was nothing to cheer about, coming in light at 4.7 million shares. Going forward, this will be our last report before we drop MU this weekend as we follow our normal strategy of exiting in front of the payable date. If overall market conditions are right tomorrow, we may see a test of the March high of $143.00. We urge caution at this point and would advise against new plays. The stock has support at $130, bolstered by the 5-dma at $128. Resistance is the late-March high of $143.



Picked on April 23rd @ $125.25
Change since picked +9.75



PAYX - Paychex $53.13 +1.38 (+2.38)

A little interest in PAYX was lost today as traders focused on the beaten down techs. PAYX is a bit of a "safety" stock that should outperform during weak markets but could be left behind on major tech bull moves. Nevertheless, we are very comfortable holding on to this steadily uptrending stock and we fully expect a slow rally into new highs as the split date approaches. The MACD continues to turn up which encourages us to believe that the stock could break out of the current $47-$55 base. RSI remains comfortably below overbought levels. On the negative side, we did not like seeing the stock drop below yesterday's low of $51 but at least PAYX was able to close comfortably above that level. Be wary of any continuation of this trend of lower daily lows. If it happens again tomorrow there is a chance that the stock could re-test the bottom of the range at $47. Although we feel that is unlikely. You should keep a stop below $47 and if the stock drops below $50 tomorrow you may want to wait for a test of that support before initiating a new position. We will exit this position no later than the May 16th earnings date.



Picked on April 25th @ $55.31
Change since picked -2.18



TFS - Three-Five Systems $95.50 +3.00 (+14.87)

TFS is still the quiet little tech stock that is just flying high. The very low average daily volume of 288K is fine by us if the stock can continue its stellar performance. Traders want a winner and small cadres of them have found TFS. We saw a broad based rally among tech stocks today and the strong performance of Nokia could have helped TFS because TFS is the major supplier of mobile phone displays. Another key contributory factor to the rise in the shares of TFS was the announcement that TFS, working in conjunction with Mitsui (MITSY), has finalized an agreement with Nikon to use TFS's microdisplay technology for rear projection computer monitors and televisions manufactured by several different OEM's. TFS is perhaps also moving due to Tuesday's 3:2 split announcement. All of this good news has enabled the shares of TFS to move into new high ground. The stock was able to shrug off yesterday's selling and continue to exhibit an amazing amount of relative strength. The slope of the uptrend appears to be getting steeper which could result in an accelerated move to the upside. Very few tech stocks are making new highs right now and the appearance of TFS on those lists will only attract more attention. Look for a follow through rally to test psychological resistance at $100. A close above that price could signal more upside for TFS. Placing a stop just below today's low of $89 would be a prudent move to protect profits. We will be exiting this position at the latest by the session preceding the May 12th payable date.



Picked on April 25th @ $81.88
Change since picked +13.62



TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INC. $159.50 +10.56 (+14.50)

Texas Instruments, the world's number one maker of computer chips for mobile phones, had nice gains today despite selling from the CEO. Wednesday, Thomas Engibous filed to sell 263,000 shares of common stock he acquired through stock options, for a value of $37 million dollars. Investors showed little concern as the stock steadily gained ground all day. Buying came on lighter than normal volume at 4.8 million shares. Fears of a recession and further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve had little effect on TXN, as the stock bucked the trend of the DOW right from the open. Additionally, TXN was selected by SONY to provide its digital signal processor technology for Sony's Next-Generation wireless phones. Texas Instruments plans to split its stock 2 for 1 on May 22. The potential for further upside gains is good. The stock closed right at the 50-dma, a strong psychological level of resistance. A close over this level on good volume (5.5 million shares or better) would be a positive sign. Above that we will need to retest $169 as the next resistance. Support can be found at $150, propped up by the 5 & 20-dma's. A hard bounce off that level or a strong move through today's high ($162.88) might offer good entry points. Place stops just below $150 to limit downside.



Picked on April 25th @ $152.00
Change since picked +7.50



ZOMX - Zomax Incorporated $46.75 +3.62 (+3.81)

Analysts who have been continually touting Zomax as a beneficiary of data-related products and services, site the company should gain from the growing demand for its services due to growing demand for data. Specifically, the company offers, E-fulfillment services; E-commerce support; CD and DVD mastering; CD and DVD replication; supply chain and inventory management; graphic design; print management; assembly; packaging; distribution and fulfillment. A combination of these services has created a heavy following for ZOMX shares. Shares climbed nicely today, finishing up 4.63 points (+5%). Continued strength will likely find resistance at the half-century mark, which coincides with the 100-dma ($49.45). Strong volume may be required to push prices higher to their next resistance of $54, bolstered by both the 30 and 50-dma's of ($54.06 and $53.34), respectfully. As for any downside moves, $40 should remain very solid as reinforced by the 200-dma of $39.35. Look to open positions when good volume can confirm hard bounces from support or advances through resistance. Exits should be timed prior to the payable date of May 8th, as is our normal policy. Since 5/8 is a Monday, we will exit by the close on Friday, May 5th.



Picked on April 20th @ $42.94
Change since picked +3.81



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

ALTR - Altera $106.00 +8.44 (+14.81)

Altera is having a good week. Shares of ALTR hit two consecutive all-time highs as investors continue to accumulate semiconductor stocks. The entire sector was lifted on Thursday due to bullish comments from several companies within the group, Applied Materials (AMAT) getting the most press. The Company is holding its Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 10th at which time the shareholders will vote on increasing the number of authorized shares from 400 million to 700 million. We are hoping for a split announcement following the meeting. In the meantime, support is now the century mark bolstered by the 5-dma at $97. Set stops under $97 to limit losses. Resistance may come in at $110 or $115. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $110 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit shortly after the Annual Meeting, depending on whether we get the split announcement or not.



Picked on April 25th @ $98.88
Change since picked +7.13



AMD - Advanced Micro Devices $85.25 +3.00 (+7.00)

Duron Duron. No not a pop group from the 80's, but AMD's latest processors to grab valuable market share. Today, the California based company announced its newest development in Altheon processor technology, the Duron chip. AMD will be focusing on the sub-$1000 PC market and will be providing their new technology to PC's by this summer. AMD will offer the new chip at higher clock speeds than its K6-2, which has topped out at 550MHz, but is unlikely to charge much more than its introductory cost of $187. Today, the stock performed very well in the face of the extremely negative situation we faced at the open. AMD opened strong and traded as high as $87.25 before pulling back in the last hour. Volume was better than average by 40%, at 7 million shares. Support is now the 5-dma at $83 and resistance remains at the recent high at $88. We will be watching for a split announcement following today's meeting. Keep stops in place at $75, just below the 10-dma. A bounce off the 10-dma or a break out through the high would be a good place for new plays. Watch for sector guidance from the SOX index as well as the NASDAQ Composite before entering a new play.



Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +19.25



BRCM - Broadcom $170.75 +10.19 (+18.25)

Broadcom gave us a huge fake-out on Wednesday morning, trading up to $173.88 early in the session. However, the NASDAQ reversed direction, taking BRCM down with it. It made a recovery late in the day, then continued to climb on Thursday as the semiconductor sector gained strength on the positive comments from the CEO of Applied Materials (AMAT). Also contributing to the rally was the Company's Annual Shareholder Meeting on Thursday. We did not get the split announcement yet, but we may get one tomorrow or early next week. If not, we may have to wait until the next earnings release in July. For now, support is $165 with stronger support on the 5-dma at $157. Set stops under $157 to lock in gains. Resistance is the 20-dma at $175 (today's high) and then $180. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $165 or a move above the 20-dma on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. We recommend an exit in the session following a split announcement.



Picked on April 23rd @ $152.50
Change since picked +18.25



CIEN - Ciena Corporation, Inc. $124.44 +8.88 (+27.44)

Pump up the volume! On Tuesday we commented about Ciena's chart pattern and cautioned to watch for positive volume before entering new positions. Wednesday, the Maryland optical networking equipment maker traded almost double volume from Tuesday's performance, gaining $9.68 for the day. Today, the song remained the same with the stock running up steadily before a minor retreat by mid-afternoon. Wireless and wireless related stocks did well across the board today, due in part to the long awaited IPO (AWE) offered by AT&T of their wireless tracking stock. CIEN is due to report earnings after the close on 5/18 and may have begun an earnings run. Granted, this would make for a long run as the stock is still down 60 points from its March high. Support for CIEN is just below at $120, followed by the 5- dma at $110. Resistance is just above at $130, the 50-dma. A break through the 50-dma could see this thing head for the buck- fifty watermark. Good volume partnered with confirming moves in the broader indexes should guide the stock higher. Be cautious of higher levels achieved on lower volume. Another bounce off the 5- dma or a break above $130 on good volume would be a good place to enter new plays. Confirm new plays with sector and index momentum.



Picked on April 25th @ $105.87
Change since picked +18.56



INKT - Inktomi Corporation $149.88 +12.62 (+20.75)

Further leveraging its unique infrastructure software for Internet applications, Inktomi (INKT) announced today an alliance with Vignette Corporation. Vignette is a provider of software and services to companies that are building online businesses. The alliance will enable commerce providers to actively manage their Website components in a more streamlined fashion. The news was positive for INKT stock, which added 10.38 points on the day. On an intra-day basis this advance challenged our mentioned resistance at the buck fifty mark, which did present us with a profit taking opportunity. For further advances, stronger volume may have to be present for a continued advance to the next resistance point at $160 (50-dma). On the downside, look for $140 to offer primary support, then $130, bolstered by the 100-dma ($128.89), to offer secondary. Use strong reversals off these levels as potential entry points. Use trailing stops to protect your profits.



Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Change since picked +7.94



LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $63.63 +4.50 (+0.69)

Lattice Semiconductor continues to consolidate along with the NASDAQ. The stock has spent the last 6 sessions bouncing around the $50-$65 range. Volume remains steady and it looks like we may see more consolidation until the volume picks up. This could happen any day now, as we are just 3 sessions away from their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2. We are hoping for a split announcement following the meeting. Until then, support is now the 5 and 10-dma's at $61 with stronger support at $57 and then Monday's low of $54. Place stops under $54 as protection. Resistance has come down to $65 with further resistance at the 50-dma at $67. Open new positions on a bounce off of $60 or a move above $65. Initiate new plays on a volume spike, only in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting.



Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +0.69



LVLT - Level 3 Communications $84.19 +1.19 (+0.81)

Level 3 Communications is struggling at its 20-dma as the stock bases in the $75-$85 range. In the news, Walter Scott, Jr., filed to sell 500,000 shares as of 4/26. This may be the reason for the recent action in LVLT and the current basing trend may continue as we are still weeks away from the Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/22 (split announcement target). On the technical side, there is support at the 5 and 10-dma's at $82 and $81 respectively. Additional support should come in at $79. Place hard stops under $79 to limit losses. Resistance is the 20-dma at $86 and then $90. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $81-$82 or a move above $86 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Look for an exit in the session following a split announcement or on a dip below $79 as we will drop this play if strong support is violated.



Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +1.69



ORCL - Oracle Corporation $77.31 +5.13 (+6.50)

Bringing speed to the E-business forefront, Oracle is offering new products that get businesses to the Internet faster than its competitors. ORCL announced Wednesday the release of iSpeed, which will enable businesses to become e-businesses at unprecedented speed. Commenting on the release, Sandy Sanderson, executive vice president of Oracle Consulting, stated, "We have developed Oracle iSpeed to help our customers respond to the speed initiative. iSpeed enables companies to develop and deploy their e-business solutions in record time, at lower costs and with less risk than conventional services." Although a positive for the company, shares didn't respond in accordance with the announcement until today. Today's gain, which added 5.13 points on the day, showed us that the stock may be ready for another attempt at the $80.00 resistance level. We believe that, at this level, you should strongly consider some profit taking, as resistance should be challenging. If the stock declines, then expect support to remain at the 50-dma of $75.72 and just lower at the $73 level, bolstered by the 10-dma ($73.23). Use these support levels as intra-day entry points, when prices reverse sharply from them.



Picked on April 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +13.81



TER - Teradyne $107.94 +5.75 (+11.63)

The sideline cash keeps finding its way into the strongest tech group out there, semiconductor equipment stocks. This action enabled TER to make another new high today. New highs are rare in this current climate and momentum players have a very short list to choose from. NYSE tech traders have an even smaller universe to choose from and TER is re-emerging as a favorite. Teradyne probably benefited from a bullish analyst meeting hosted by semiconductor leader Intel. A potentially negative news item failed to hold TER back. A Director and former executive of the Company filed to sell up to $26 million of his TER holdings. The announcement was perhaps perceived as a non-event due to the age of this individual. It is very common for 70-year olds to get their assets in order during their later years. Moving on to the rosier picture, TER was able to hold above the $100 support level during yesterday's late selloff and today's gap down, providing an excellent entry point. Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI remain bullish and it seems entirely possible that TER could keep sailing into the uncharted waters of new highs. Continue to be cautious as we have recently seen trends reverse very quickly. We suggest locking in profits with a trailing stop. Your first stop should be just below $100. A close above $110 tomorrow and you could move your stop up to $105. We will exit this position if there is a split announcement.



Picked on April 25th @ $103.38
Change since picked +4.56



VRSN - VeriSign, Inc. $126.30 +19.27 (+7.80)

VeriSign rallied today on a 50% increase in volume, no doubt in response to the stellar earnings report from Network Solutions. In March, VeriSign announced it would be buying Network Solutions for $17 Billion in stock, the most expensive acquisition of an Internet company to date. But hey, NSOL is second in subscribers only to America Online. NSOL blew out their numbers; beating consensus estimates by as much as .06 cents and the hallowed whisper number by .03 cents. NSOL also tacked on 19+ points today. The current situation bodes well for continued momentum for VRSN. We like that the stock has now closed back over the 200-dma at $117.00. Next resistance is at $130 (20-dma) and then at $140. The 200-dma should now offer support, bolstered by the 5-dma at $112. We are a month away from the shareholders meeting; plenty of time for a nice run before icing the cake with a split announcement, we hope. Near term we would look for continued volume of over 5 million shares along with confirming signs in the NASDAQ and the sector. Keep an eye on NSOL too as VRSN could give back points in sympathy with any profit taking there. A bounce off support or a strong move through $130 might offer nice entry points. Set stop losses just below $117.



Picked on April 25th @ $111.00
Change since picked +15.30



XLNX - Xilinx $72.63 +7.13 (+6.87)

XLNX was a strong beneficiary of a rally in the SOX today. An analyst's meeting, hosted by Intel, fueled strength in the Semiconductor group. Intel projected a very bullish future for themselves and the industry as a whole. One of the reasons why we like XLNX is the stock's ability to hold on during selloffs and come roaring back during rallies, thereby creating one of the stronger relative strength patterns among leading technology companies. XLNX formed a very formidable technical pattern today that is known as an outside day. An outside day occurs when a stock trades both below and above the previous day's high and low. The fact that XLNX not only closed above yesterday's high but also the high of the trading range for the past two weeks is extremely bullish in the short term. A rally over the next two days to $80 seems very likely. A momentum investor may wish to wait for a break above the 50-DMA at $74 before going long. If the market has another one of its wacky reversals, be very wary of a drop back below today's low of $62.13. We will exit this position based upon chart indications, so use trailing stops to protect profits.



Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked +2.25



YHOO - Yahoo! $124.31 +5.19 (+1.81)

The battle rages on with Yahoo! Outside of an intra-day dip on Monday, YHOO is basically unchanged for the week and appears to be basing. On a positive note, the DOT was up nicely today and the Internet sector may have found a bottom. We are hoping for momentum to return to the stock as we move closer to their Annual Shareholders Meeting on 5/12 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are looking for a split announcement out of the Annual Meeting. In the meantime, support is now the 5-dma at $121 with additional support at today's low of $113. Set stops under $113 to prevent additional losses. Resistance remains at the 200-dma ($128), then the 20-dma at $138. Use a bounce off of $121 or a break above $128 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting.



Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked -2.38



SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

DOW - Dow Chemical Company $109.00 -3.44 (+3.62)

Our earnings plays often work out as expected, but this time it didn't. In the case of DOW, the earnings run came early in the week, only to be followed by profit taking on Wednesday, ahead of the earnings report. Wednesday's selloff in the Dow Industrials was the primary cause of DOW's slide in front of earnings. The release, which came in positive, confirmed our short-term under valuation of the stock. Reporting a 24% increase in earnings per share, DOW posted earnings of $1.83, which easily beat consensus estimates of $1.62. Keeping with our strategy, we dropped the play before the earnings report. We'll keep you posted on future opportunities as they occur.



Picked on April 23rd @ $105.38

Profit/Loss = +0.19 (0%) (Dropped on Wednesday's close of $105.56)
Best Profit = +6.25 (+6%)



MRVC - MRV Communications $61.69 +4.81 (+5.63)

MRV Communications announced earnings after the bell on Thursday. The Company earned 3 cents, beating estimates of a loss of a penny. They also announced that they signed an agreement to purchase Jolt Ltd., a pioneer in optical wireless communications, Optronics International Corporation, a leading manufacturer of laser diodes and transceivers and Quantum Optech, a manufacturer of optical thin film coating and filters for dense wavelength division multiplexing. As we indicated on Tuesday, we would be dropping this play tonight, as is our normal policy. If you still have open positions on MRVC, we recommend placing stops under $61 and looking for an exit tomorrow on any strong up-move.



Picked on April 23rd @ $56.06

Profit/Loss = +5.63 (+10%)
Best Profit = +7.38 (+13%)



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

A - Agilent Technologies $90.75 -1.12 (+0.81)

The strong rally today left Agilent behind and we want to exit this position so we can put our money to work in the stocks that are moving now. Our fear that traders are ignoring this stock due to the pending spinoff of millions of shares from their previous parent company HWP, seem to have been realized. Perhaps we will look at Agilent again after the spinoff because the Company still has excellent fundamentals and strong prospects for continued growth.



Picked on April 18th @ $87.00

Profit/Loss = +3.75 (+4%)
Best Profit = +8.56 (+10%)



CPN - Calpine Corporation $86.63 -0.94 (+1.24)

Completing a positive run to earnings, Wednesday's advance to a high of $89.00 allowed us to finish our play in positive territory. Utilities were strong Wednesday, helping to drive the stock higher. Much of the advance was the result of heavy buying early in the day, in expectation of good earning results to follow. Those who bought in with this expectation were not disappointed. Reporting a 200% increase for the first quarter, Calpine gained a $0.27 cents for the quarter, a net income of $18.1 million. Future prospects look bright for CPN, and we'll keep you updated on further plays.



Picked on April 23rd @ $85.38

Profit/Loss = +2.18 (+3%) (Dropped on Wednesday's close of $87.56)
Best Profit = +3.62 (+4%)



VSH - Vishay Intertechnology Inc. $78.13 +6.50 (+14.12)

For all those who bought VSH on the breakout, you were also awarded a pleasant surprise today, a good earnings report! As most of our readers may already know, we play the stock right up to earnings and exit just ahead of the announcement. VSH was expected to report next week on either May 3rd or 4th. Their subsidiary, Siliconix (SILI), reported Wednesday, followed by VSH today, which was unexpected. Our policy of picking strong market performers still allowed us to gain in the face of this uncertainty. As for the earnings release, the company gained a solid 100% increase over the last quarter by posting a $0.84 net income. We are dropping this play now as the earnings spike may be followed by some post-earnings profit taking.



Picked on April 25th @ $67.50

Profit/Loss = +11.50 (+17%) 
Best Profit = +16.25 (+24%)



WLA - Warner-Lambert Company $116.69 -1.31 (+3.25)

Despite what looked like a potential run on Monday, today WLA traded lower on increased volume, not a sign we are thrilled about. Tuesday's volume was lighter by one half and was indeed a concern. Additionally, for those of you who are dedicated chartists, on Tuesday we saw a formation known as a "hanging man". The formation is a Japanese Candlestick formation and can often indicate a turnaround. We believe in light of the lower close today that this would be a good time to part Company with WLA. We will watch for future opportunities and better chart patterns to develop. Also, we will watch for the Pfizer merger and see how things progress in that arena.



Picked on April 23rd @ $113.44

Profit/Loss = +3.25 (+3%)
Best profit = +6.75 (+6%)


 


Copyright 2001 SplitTrader.com

Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
Privacy Statement   Disclaimer   Terms Of Service