NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
JNPR - Juniper Networks Inc. $208.94 +13.31 (+22.81)
Juniper Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of Internet
infrastructure solutions for Internet service providers and other
telecommunications service providers, delivering next generation
Internet backbone routers specifically designed for service
provider networks. Unlike conventional routers, Juniper's
Internet backbone routers are specifically designed to
accommodate the size and scope of the Internet while other
conventional routers are inadequate in this capacity. Having
completed a full 50% retracement from its March highs, JNPR now
seems poised for a split run. On April 13th, the company
announced plans to effect a 2:1 stock split, payable on June
16th. Final approval from shareholders will come at their May
meeting scheduled for next Thursday, May 4th. On 4/18 the company
beat earnings by .03 cents per share. That same day, JNPR
announced the introduction of a new chip for its networking
equipment that can prevent intruders from attacking its website.
The chip could prevent the denial of service attack that crippled
many websites recently. Today the stock closed above 205 on
better than average volume, a closing price challenged but not
conquered on May 19th. Support is now established, although
light, at $200. The 100-dma below the current position at
$185.00. Resistance is overhead at $210, the 20-dma. Look for
confirmation in the NASDAQ and the Internet sector when entering
a new play. A strong bounce off the important psychological level
of $200 or a big volume moves up though resistance would make a
good entry point. Exercise caution on Friday, as this has been a
very volatile week for traders. NASDAQ volume was light on
Thursday indicating that buyers are still cautious in the face of
today's economic news. Use confirming signal before entering any
new plays.
Picked on April 27th @ $208.94
Change since picked 0.00
| |
NEWP - Newport Corporation $116.25 +9.25 (+9.50)
As fiber optics brings us into the communication gateway of the
next century, Newport (NEWP) is well positioned in this arena for
the future growth that will follow. A maker of instruments and
components for laser and fiber optic solutions, NEWP has found
that demand for its products have translated into solid gains for
its stock. Momentum in the optical networking group is picking
up once again. On May 17th, shareholders will vote to increase
authorized shares, in accordance with a board approved 3:1 stock
split. In anticipation of more shares being authorized, and as
today's price movement suggests, a recovery may be in the works.
Given further advances, we'll look first at $120, which is the
30-dma, then to the 50-dma ($130.77) to present the primary wall
of resistance. On the downside, there is light support at $110,
then $100. The meeting is several weeks off, so we will watch
our chart indications closely. Be sure to use trailing stops to
protect profits, or place your loss limits under support in case
the broad market turns against us.
Picked on April 27th @ $116.25
Change since picked 0.00
| |
RMBS - Rambus Incorporated $211.75 +20.69 (+44.25)
Capturing massive revenue from the video game market, Rambus
(RMBS) is set to keep its position as the leader in high-speed
chip-to-chip interface technology. To do this, RMBS is planning
an explosive entry for its DRAM's in the PC market this year.
Analysts currently estimate that Rambus-based PC's will be
included in 10% of all personal computer sales this year! Fueled
by these strong growth prospects and lofty stock price the Board
of Directors were prompted to announce a 4:1 stock split with a
payable date tentatively set for 6/14. As such, a special meeting
will be held on 5/23, in which a proposal to increase the number
of authorized shares to 500 million will be voted on. Currently,
the company has 60 million shares that are authorized and 23.8
million shares outstanding. With such a positive outlook this
year, it's hard to imagine that just last month shares have
declined from $471.00. However, this large decline provides us
with an excellent opportunity to recapture lost ground. Currently
trading at $211.00, RMBS shares have shown a steady volume
improvement all week, hinting that a recovery may be in the
works. We'll look for further advances to meet primary resistance
at the $250 mark and just higher at the 50-dma ($266.62). As for
support, the double century mark should be noted as a good level
for intra-day buying. Further down, look to the $175 mark,
reinforced by the 10-dma ($175.62) to be swift. This play is not
for the faint of heart. RMBS is a very volatile stock and can
easily swing in 20 point ranges both up or down. Plan your stops
and consider your risk tolerance before entering the play. If we
do get the upside movement that we expect, protect your profits
by selling too soon if necessary. It's highly unlikely that we
will hold this stock until the payable date, as the time horizon
is too far out. Therefore, use support levels as your guide when
setting stops.
Picked on April 27th @ $211.75
Change since picked 0.00
| |
NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
BRCD - Brocade Communication Systems $115.00 +5.12 (+10.00)
The key for Brocade has been their ability to continually improve
Fibre Channel switching solutions for Storage Area Networks
(SANS). This strategy has paid off well, as several major clients
have been attracted to the company's rapidly growing SilkWorm
family of switches. As for the capital structure of the company,
BRCD currently has 107.8 million shares outstanding and a float
of 6.6 million. On April 20th, the Board of Directors agreed to
authorize an increase in the number of shares from 200 million to
400 million. The last couple of weeks, BRCD has challenged the
$120 resistance level, but has yet to be successful. An advance
through this level should trigger a breakout and set the stage
for initial entry. If $120 can be beaten the next resistance
area is at the 50-dma ($140.11). However, if weakness in the
NASDAQ further plagues BRCD shares, then look for light support
at $110, then the 5-dma at $106.84. Obviously, $100 would be
psychological support for the stock. Target your entries when
prices bounce off support or run swiftly through resistance
levels. Design exit strategies in front of the earnings date of
May 17th, as per our normal policy. Trail your stops to protect
profits.
Picked on April 27th @ $115.00
Change since picked 0.00
| |
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $179.00 +8.00 (+17.31)
Time to go after one of our favorites again. CHKP should be one
of the major technological leaders that will emerge from this
correction and continue to flourish. Ensuring the security of
the Internet could be the single most important issue concerning
this infant industry. CHKP designs the software that attempts to
stay one step ahead of the new breed of cyber criminals. This
very serious cops and robbers drama should enable CHKP to grow
into a highly profitable Company. CHKP is one of those extremely
rare Internet Software companies that are already profitable and
that fact has helped the stock to maintain a good chunk of its
value. Earlier this month, CHKP reported solid 1st Quarter with
earnings of $0.40, beating the Street's estimates by 5 cents.
CHKP's last split announcement occurred back in December during a
B of D meeting with the stock trading at $192.81. We will
continue to monitor the wires looking for any sort of meetings
that could trigger another split. The past two months have been
a period of extreme volatility for the shares of CHKP. 30-point
intraday moves are commonplace so please be wary of that fact
when determining a position size, with your risk tolerance in
mind. The last three NASDAQ dumps have seen CHKP create a
pattern of higher lows. The down spike prices were; $116,
$128.63 and $134.75. This is an easy pattern to discern. The
resistance for the past two weeks has been established at
approximately $185. A move above that price and it would seem
likely that CHKP is ready to tackle the $200 resistance point.
The MACD momentum indicator turned positive today and the RSI
short-term oscillator has plenty of room before indicating an
overbought condition. Patient investors could attempt to buy
pullbacks into the $160's, but you could miss the next move if
you are too patient. Momentum traders may want to purchase a
break above $185. We will exit this position if there is a split
announcement.
Picked on April 27th @ $179.00
Change since picked 0.00
| |
CMGI - CMGI Inc. $66.19 +8.19 (+8.50)
A huge move today in the share price of CMGI leads us to believe
that the worst may be over for this Internet incubator. CMGI is
perhaps the most famous and successful investor in the emerging
Internet markets. In some ways, CMGI is a sort of mutual fund of
Internet stocks with its majority holdings in numerous Internet
subsidiaries, the highest profile one is perhaps AltaVista, a
fast growing and well known search and commerce site. Today it
was announced that AltaVista has grown its number of unique
worldwide users to 60 million. This phenomenal growth and
presence was reflected in today's price appreciation of CMGI's
stock. AltaVista has been adding about 10,000 new subscribers a
day to its free ISP service launched just seven months ago.
Honestly, this play really is not a legitimate split candidate
for us at these levels. We really like this play because CMGI is
an unquestioned leader and the stock is bouncing off of
substantial support that goes all the way back to October. CMGI
has lost fully 2 thirds of its value during this correction and
we like the risk/reward nature of this play. Bottom line, it
appears that everyone who wanted out of this stock is probably
gone and the path of least resistance is higher. There is a lot
of technical resistance however. Look for the stock to struggle
at $70 followed by $90 and then $100. There is solid support at
$55 and we suggest not letting the stock run too far below that
price before exiting. Picking bottoms is a tricky business but
the MACD trend indicator looks like it is ready to turn up and
the RSI short-term indicator is at an extremely oversold level.
Our target date is the earnings report due on March 9th after the
market.
Picked on April 27th @ $66.19
Change since picked 0.00
| |
PMCS - PMC-Sierra Inc. $182.62 +12.63 (+37.43)
All Aboard! PMC-Sierra isn't a train company, though it's been
moving at a nice clip lately; and they don't have a conductor,
well not exactly. PMC-Sierra designs, develops, markets and
supports high-performance semiconductor networking solutions for
use in the high speed transmission and networking systems of the
global telecommunications and date communications infrastructure.
On June 15th the company will hold their annual shareholders
meeting and ask for an increase in shares to 900 million. If
approved, they will have more than enough to effect a stock
split. Last weekend Barron's magazine rated PMCS the #2 company
based on its survey of 500 companies. The article rated
companies based on top-line revenue growth, stock-market
performance, and real cash returns on capital invested. Monday,
the stock challenged its upper trend line from the recent decline
and won. The stock now appears ready for a healthy run back to
its former levels. Volume continues to be good, trading 2 and 3
times normal levels of 4.7 million all week. The most immediate
obstacle is the 50-dma right overhead at 190, we'd like to see
that level conquered with good volume as one place to open a
position. The stock has been wildly volatile with 15-20 point
swings. A good bounce off 170-175 would also provide a nice entry
point. Above that, the psychological 200 line would pose the
next resistance. Support is light at 170 then 165. Set stops just
below 160 to limit losses.
Picked on April 27th @ $182.62
Change since picked 0.00
| |
SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
GE - General Electric $161.50 -1.75 (+3.00)
Shareholders of General Electric approved the increase in
authorized shares necessary for the 3:1 stock split at the Annual
Shareholder Meeting on Wednesday. The Company has set a 5/5
payable date for the split. They also sold $500 million in four-
year notes on Wednesday. The stock fell on the news and inflation
fears, which were confirmed on Thursday morning. GE slid further
on Thursday but held above support and was moving higher into the
closing bell. Due to the timing of the payable date, we may see a
breakout next week, as we are only 6 trading days away from the
payable date. However, all bets are off in a negative market.
Going forward, GE has light support at $160 with stronger support
at the 10-dma, now up to $157. Set hard stops at just below $157
to avoid additional losses. Resistance is just above the all-time
high at $168 and then $170. Look for a bounce off of $160 or a
breakout above $168 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm
market sentiment before opening new positions as the stock has
exposure to several market sectors. Plan to exit by 5/4 or on a
dip below $157.
Picked on April 25th @ $166.00
Change since picked -4.50
| |
MU - MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. $135.00 +6.25 (+8.75)
I love it when a plan comes together. A phrase often repeated by
George Peppard during the 1980's on the series The "A" Team. We
too love it when a plan comes together. Our plan was to capture
some profit from Micron in advance of their split scheduled for
next Monday. Since breaking out of a 3-month trading channel back
in March, MU has more than doubled in price. As demand for chips
continues we may see further gains. Today, MU tacked on another
10 points before handing some back at the close. Once again
volume for the Semiconductor Company was nothing to cheer about,
coming in light at 4.7 million shares. Going forward, this will
be our last report before we drop MU this weekend as we follow
our normal strategy of exiting in front of the payable date. If
overall market conditions are right tomorrow, we may see a test
of the March high of $143.00. We urge caution at this point and
would advise against new plays. The stock has support at $130,
bolstered by the 5-dma at $128. Resistance is the late-March
high of $143.
Picked on April 23rd @ $125.25
Change since picked +9.75
| |
PAYX - Paychex $53.13 +1.38 (+2.38)
A little interest in PAYX was lost today as traders focused on
the beaten down techs. PAYX is a bit of a "safety" stock that
should outperform during weak markets but could be left behind on
major tech bull moves. Nevertheless, we are very comfortable
holding on to this steadily uptrending stock and we fully expect
a slow rally into new highs as the split date approaches. The
MACD continues to turn up which encourages us to believe that the
stock could break out of the current $47-$55 base. RSI remains
comfortably below overbought levels. On the negative side, we did
not like seeing the stock drop below yesterday's low of $51 but
at least PAYX was able to close comfortably above that level. Be
wary of any continuation of this trend of lower daily lows. If
it happens again tomorrow there is a chance that the stock could
re-test the bottom of the range at $47. Although we feel that is
unlikely. You should keep a stop below $47 and if the stock
drops below $50 tomorrow you may want to wait for a test of that
support before initiating a new position. We will exit this
position no later than the May 16th earnings date.
Picked on April 25th @ $55.31
Change since picked -2.18
| |
TFS - Three-Five Systems $95.50 +3.00 (+14.87)
TFS is still the quiet little tech stock that is just flying
high. The very low average daily volume of 288K is fine by us if
the stock can continue its stellar performance. Traders want a
winner and small cadres of them have found TFS. We saw a broad
based rally among tech stocks today and the strong performance of
Nokia could have helped TFS because TFS is the major supplier of
mobile phone displays. Another key contributory factor to the
rise in the shares of TFS was the announcement that TFS, working
in conjunction with Mitsui (MITSY), has finalized an agreement
with Nikon to use TFS's microdisplay technology for rear
projection computer monitors and televisions manufactured by
several different OEM's. TFS is perhaps also moving due to
Tuesday's 3:2 split announcement. All of this good news has
enabled the shares of TFS to move into new high ground. The
stock was able to shrug off yesterday's selling and continue to
exhibit an amazing amount of relative strength. The slope of the
uptrend appears to be getting steeper which could result in an
accelerated move to the upside. Very few tech stocks are making
new highs right now and the appearance of TFS on those lists will
only attract more attention. Look for a follow through rally to
test psychological resistance at $100. A close above that price
could signal more upside for TFS. Placing a stop just below
today's low of $89 would be a prudent move to protect profits.
We will be exiting this position at the latest by the session
preceding the May 12th payable date.
Picked on April 25th @ $81.88
Change since picked +13.62
| |
TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INC. $159.50 +10.56 (+14.50)
Texas Instruments, the world's number one maker of computer chips
for mobile phones, had nice gains today despite selling from the
CEO. Wednesday, Thomas Engibous filed to sell 263,000 shares of
common stock he acquired through stock options, for a value of
$37 million dollars. Investors showed little concern as the stock
steadily gained ground all day. Buying came on lighter than
normal volume at 4.8 million shares. Fears of a recession and
further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve had little effect on
TXN, as the stock bucked the trend of the DOW right from the
open. Additionally, TXN was selected by SONY to provide its
digital signal processor technology for Sony's Next-Generation
wireless phones. Texas Instruments plans to split its stock 2 for
1 on May 22. The potential for further upside gains is good. The
stock closed right at the 50-dma, a strong psychological level of
resistance. A close over this level on good volume (5.5 million
shares or better) would be a positive sign. Above that we will
need to retest $169 as the next resistance. Support can be found
at $150, propped up by the 5 & 20-dma's. A hard bounce off that
level or a strong move through today's high ($162.88) might offer
good entry points. Place stops just below $150 to limit
downside.
Picked on April 25th @ $152.00
Change since picked +7.50
| |
ZOMX - Zomax Incorporated $46.75 +3.62 (+3.81)
Analysts who have been continually touting Zomax as a beneficiary
of data-related products and services, site the company should
gain from the growing demand for its services due to growing
demand for data. Specifically, the company offers, E-fulfillment
services; E-commerce support; CD and DVD mastering; CD and DVD
replication; supply chain and inventory management; graphic
design; print management; assembly; packaging; distribution and
fulfillment. A combination of these services has created a heavy
following for ZOMX shares. Shares climbed nicely today,
finishing up 4.63 points (+5%). Continued strength will likely
find resistance at the half-century mark, which coincides with
the 100-dma ($49.45). Strong volume may be required to push
prices higher to their next resistance of $54, bolstered by both
the 30 and 50-dma's of ($54.06 and $53.34), respectfully. As for
any downside moves, $40 should remain very solid as reinforced by
the 200-dma of $39.35. Look to open positions when good volume
can confirm hard bounces from support or advances through
resistance. Exits should be timed prior to the payable date of
May 8th, as is our normal policy. Since 5/8 is a Monday, we will
exit by the close on Friday, May 5th.
Picked on April 20th @ $42.94
Change since picked +3.81
| |
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
ALTR - Altera $106.00 +8.44 (+14.81)
Altera is having a good week. Shares of ALTR hit two consecutive
all-time highs as investors continue to accumulate semiconductor
stocks. The entire sector was lifted on Thursday due to bullish
comments from several companies within the group, Applied
Materials (AMAT) getting the most press. The Company is holding
its Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 10th at which time the
shareholders will vote on increasing the number of authorized
shares from 400 million to 700 million. We are hoping for a split
announcement following the meeting. In the meantime, support is
now the century mark bolstered by the 5-dma at $97. Set stops
under $97 to limit losses. Resistance may come in at $110 or
$115. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $110 to
initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in
a rising market. We recommend an exit shortly after the Annual
Meeting, depending on whether we get the split announcement or
not.
Picked on April 25th @ $98.88
Change since picked +7.13
| |
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices $85.25 +3.00 (+7.00)
Duron Duron. No not a pop group from the 80's, but AMD's latest
processors to grab valuable market share. Today, the California
based company announced its newest development in Altheon
processor technology, the Duron chip. AMD will be focusing on the
sub-$1000 PC market and will be providing their new technology to
PC's by this summer. AMD will offer the new chip at higher clock
speeds than its K6-2, which has topped out at 550MHz, but is
unlikely to charge much more than its introductory cost of $187.
Today, the stock performed very well in the face of the extremely
negative situation we faced at the open. AMD opened strong and
traded as high as $87.25 before pulling back in the last hour.
Volume was better than average by 40%, at 7 million shares.
Support is now the 5-dma at $83 and resistance remains at the
recent high at $88. We will be watching for a split announcement
following today's meeting. Keep stops in place at $75, just below
the 10-dma. A bounce off the 10-dma or a break out through the
high would be a good place for new plays. Watch for sector
guidance from the SOX index as well as the NASDAQ Composite
before entering a new play.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +19.25
| |
BRCM - Broadcom $170.75 +10.19 (+18.25)
Broadcom gave us a huge fake-out on Wednesday morning, trading up
to $173.88 early in the session. However, the NASDAQ reversed
direction, taking BRCM down with it. It made a recovery late in
the day, then continued to climb on Thursday as the semiconductor
sector gained strength on the positive comments from the CEO of
Applied Materials (AMAT). Also contributing to the rally was the
Company's Annual Shareholder Meeting on Thursday. We did not get
the split announcement yet, but we may get one tomorrow or early
next week. If not, we may have to wait until the next earnings
release in July. For now, support is $165 with stronger support
on the 5-dma at $157. Set stops under $157 to lock in gains.
Resistance is the 20-dma at $175 (today's high) and then $180.
Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $165 or a move above the
20-dma on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before opening new positions. We recommend an exit in
the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 23rd @ $152.50
Change since picked +18.25
| |
CIEN - Ciena Corporation, Inc. $124.44 +8.88 (+27.44)
Pump up the volume! On Tuesday we commented about Ciena's chart
pattern and cautioned to watch for positive volume before
entering new positions. Wednesday, the Maryland optical
networking equipment maker traded almost double volume from
Tuesday's performance, gaining $9.68 for the day. Today, the song
remained the same with the stock running up steadily before a
minor retreat by mid-afternoon. Wireless and wireless related
stocks did well across the board today, due in part to the long
awaited IPO (AWE) offered by AT&T of their wireless tracking
stock. CIEN is due to report earnings after the close on 5/18 and
may have begun an earnings run. Granted, this would make for a
long run as the stock is still down 60 points from its March
high. Support for CIEN is just below at $120, followed by the 5-
dma at $110. Resistance is just above at $130, the 50-dma. A
break through the 50-dma could see this thing head for the buck-
fifty watermark. Good volume partnered with confirming moves in
the broader indexes should guide the stock higher. Be cautious of
higher levels achieved on lower volume. Another bounce off the 5-
dma or a break above $130 on good volume would be a good place to
enter new plays. Confirm new plays with sector and index
momentum.
Picked on April 25th @ $105.87
Change since picked +18.56
| |
INKT - Inktomi Corporation $149.88 +12.62 (+20.75)
Further leveraging its unique infrastructure software for
Internet applications, Inktomi (INKT) announced today an alliance
with Vignette Corporation. Vignette is a provider of software and
services to companies that are building online businesses. The
alliance will enable commerce providers to actively manage their
Website components in a more streamlined fashion. The news was
positive for INKT stock, which added 10.38 points on the day. On
an intra-day basis this advance challenged our mentioned
resistance at the buck fifty mark, which did present us with a
profit taking opportunity. For further advances, stronger volume
may have to be present for a continued advance to the next
resistance point at $160 (50-dma). On the downside, look for $140
to offer primary support, then $130, bolstered by the 100-dma
($128.89), to offer secondary. Use strong reversals off these
levels as potential entry points. Use trailing stops to protect
your profits.
Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Change since picked +7.94
| |
LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $63.63 +4.50 (+0.69)
Lattice Semiconductor continues to consolidate along with the
NASDAQ. The stock has spent the last 6 sessions bouncing around
the $50-$65 range. Volume remains steady and it looks like we may
see more consolidation until the volume picks up. This could
happen any day now, as we are just 3 sessions away from their
Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2. We are hoping for a split
announcement following the meeting. Until then, support is now
the 5 and 10-dma's at $61 with stronger support at $57 and then
Monday's low of $54. Place stops under $54 as protection.
Resistance has come down to $65 with further resistance at the
50-dma at $67. Open new positions on a bounce off of $60 or a
move above $65. Initiate new plays on a volume spike, only in a
rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting.
Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +0.69
| |
LVLT - Level 3 Communications $84.19 +1.19 (+0.81)
Level 3 Communications is struggling at its 20-dma as the stock
bases in the $75-$85 range. In the news, Walter Scott, Jr., filed
to sell 500,000 shares as of 4/26. This may be the reason for the
recent action in LVLT and the current basing trend may continue
as we are still weeks away from the Annual Shareholder Meeting on
5/22 (split announcement target). On the technical side, there
is support at the 5 and 10-dma's at $82 and $81 respectively.
Additional support should come in at $79. Place hard stops under
$79 to limit losses. Resistance is the 20-dma at $86 and then
$90. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $81-$82 or a move
above $86 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before opening new positions. Look for an exit in the
session following a split announcement or on a dip below $79 as
we will drop this play if strong support is violated.
Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +1.69
| |
ORCL - Oracle Corporation $77.31 +5.13 (+6.50)
Bringing speed to the E-business forefront, Oracle is offering
new products that get businesses to the Internet faster than its
competitors. ORCL announced Wednesday the release of iSpeed,
which will enable businesses to become e-businesses at
unprecedented speed. Commenting on the release, Sandy Sanderson,
executive vice president of Oracle Consulting, stated, "We have
developed Oracle iSpeed to help our customers respond to the
speed initiative. iSpeed enables companies to develop and deploy
their e-business solutions in record time, at lower costs and
with less risk than conventional services." Although a positive
for the company, shares didn't respond in accordance with the
announcement until today. Today's gain, which added 5.13 points
on the day, showed us that the stock may be ready for another
attempt at the $80.00 resistance level. We believe that, at this
level, you should strongly consider some profit taking, as
resistance should be challenging. If the stock declines, then
expect support to remain at the 50-dma of $75.72 and just lower
at the $73 level, bolstered by the 10-dma ($73.23). Use these
support levels as intra-day entry points, when prices reverse
sharply from them.
Picked on April 16th @ $63.50
Change since picked +13.81
| |
TER - Teradyne $107.94 +5.75 (+11.63)
The sideline cash keeps finding its way into the strongest tech
group out there, semiconductor equipment stocks. This action
enabled TER to make another new high today. New highs are rare
in this current climate and momentum players have a very short
list to choose from. NYSE tech traders have an even smaller
universe to choose from and TER is re-emerging as a favorite.
Teradyne probably benefited from a bullish analyst meeting hosted
by semiconductor leader Intel. A potentially negative news item
failed to hold TER back. A Director and former executive of the
Company filed to sell up to $26 million of his TER holdings. The
announcement was perhaps perceived as a non-event due to the age
of this individual. It is very common for 70-year olds to get
their assets in order during their later years. Moving on to the
rosier picture, TER was able to hold above the $100 support level
during yesterday's late selloff and today's gap down, providing
an excellent entry point. Technical indicators such as the MACD
and RSI remain bullish and it seems entirely possible that TER
could keep sailing into the uncharted waters of new highs.
Continue to be cautious as we have recently seen trends reverse
very quickly. We suggest locking in profits with a trailing
stop. Your first stop should be just below $100. A close above
$110 tomorrow and you could move your stop up to $105. We will
exit this position if there is a split announcement.
Picked on April 25th @ $103.38
Change since picked +4.56
| |
VRSN - VeriSign, Inc. $126.30 +19.27 (+7.80)
VeriSign rallied today on a 50% increase in volume, no doubt in
response to the stellar earnings report from Network Solutions.
In March, VeriSign announced it would be buying Network Solutions
for $17 Billion in stock, the most expensive acquisition of an
Internet company to date. But hey, NSOL is second in subscribers
only to America Online. NSOL blew out their numbers; beating
consensus estimates by as much as .06 cents and the hallowed
whisper number by .03 cents. NSOL also tacked on 19+ points
today. The current situation bodes well for continued momentum
for VRSN. We like that the stock has now closed back over the
200-dma at $117.00. Next resistance is at $130 (20-dma) and then
at $140. The 200-dma should now offer support, bolstered by the
5-dma at $112. We are a month away from the shareholders
meeting; plenty of time for a nice run before icing the cake with
a split announcement, we hope. Near term we would look for
continued volume of over 5 million shares along with confirming
signs in the NASDAQ and the sector. Keep an eye on NSOL too as
VRSN could give back points in sympathy with any profit taking
there. A bounce off support or a strong move through $130 might
offer nice entry points. Set stop losses just below $117.
Picked on April 25th @ $111.00
Change since picked +15.30
| |
XLNX - Xilinx $72.63 +7.13 (+6.87)
XLNX was a strong beneficiary of a rally in the SOX today. An
analyst's meeting, hosted by Intel, fueled strength in the
Semiconductor group. Intel projected a very bullish future for
themselves and the industry as a whole. One of the reasons why
we like XLNX is the stock's ability to hold on during selloffs
and come roaring back during rallies, thereby creating one of the
stronger relative strength patterns among leading technology
companies. XLNX formed a very formidable technical pattern today
that is known as an outside day. An outside day occurs when a
stock trades both below and above the previous day's high and
low. The fact that XLNX not only closed above yesterday's high
but also the high of the trading range for the past two weeks is
extremely bullish in the short term. A rally over the next two
days to $80 seems very likely. A momentum investor may wish to
wait for a break above the 50-DMA at $74 before going long. If
the market has another one of its wacky reversals, be very wary
of a drop back below today's low of $62.13. We will exit this
position based upon chart indications, so use trailing stops to
protect profits.
Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked +2.25
| |
YHOO - Yahoo! $124.31 +5.19 (+1.81)
The battle rages on with Yahoo! Outside of an intra-day dip on
Monday, YHOO is basically unchanged for the week and appears to
be basing. On a positive note, the DOT was up nicely today and
the Internet sector may have found a bottom. We are hoping for
momentum to return to the stock as we move closer to their Annual
Shareholders Meeting on 5/12 when the shareholders will vote on
an increase in the number of authorized shares. We are looking
for a split announcement out of the Annual Meeting. In the
meantime, support is now the 5-dma at $121 with additional
support at today's low of $113. Set stops under $113 to prevent
additional losses. Resistance remains at the 200-dma ($128), then
the 20-dma at $138. Use a bounce off of $121 or a break above
$128 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only
in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting.
Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked -2.38
| |
SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
DOW - Dow Chemical Company $109.00 -3.44 (+3.62)
Our earnings plays often work out as expected, but this time it
didn't. In the case of DOW, the earnings run came early in the
week, only to be followed by profit taking on Wednesday, ahead of
the earnings report. Wednesday's selloff in the Dow Industrials
was the primary cause of DOW's slide in front of earnings. The
release, which came in positive, confirmed our short-term under
valuation of the stock. Reporting a 24% increase in earnings per
share, DOW posted earnings of $1.83, which easily beat consensus
estimates of $1.62. Keeping with our strategy, we dropped the
play before the earnings report. We'll keep you posted on future
opportunities as they occur.
Picked on April 23rd @ $105.38
Profit/Loss = +0.19 (0%) (Dropped on Wednesday's close of $105.56)
Best Profit = +6.25 (+6%)
| |
MRVC - MRV Communications $61.69 +4.81 (+5.63)
MRV Communications announced earnings after the bell on Thursday.
The Company earned 3 cents, beating estimates of a loss of a
penny. They also announced that they signed an agreement to
purchase Jolt Ltd., a pioneer in optical wireless communications,
Optronics International Corporation, a leading manufacturer of
laser diodes and transceivers and Quantum Optech, a manufacturer
of optical thin film coating and filters for dense wavelength
division multiplexing. As we indicated on Tuesday, we would be
dropping this play tonight, as is our normal policy. If you still
have open positions on MRVC, we recommend placing stops under $61
and looking for an exit tomorrow on any strong up-move.
Picked on April 23rd @ $56.06
Profit/Loss = +5.63 (+10%)
Best Profit = +7.38 (+13%)
| |
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
A - Agilent Technologies $90.75 -1.12 (+0.81)
The strong rally today left Agilent behind and we want to exit
this position so we can put our money to work in the stocks that
are moving now. Our fear that traders are ignoring this stock
due to the pending spinoff of millions of shares from their
previous parent company HWP, seem to have been realized. Perhaps
we will look at Agilent again after the spinoff because the
Company still has excellent fundamentals and strong prospects for
continued growth.
Picked on April 18th @ $87.00
Profit/Loss = +3.75 (+4%)
Best Profit = +8.56 (+10%)
| |
CPN - Calpine Corporation $86.63 -0.94 (+1.24)
Completing a positive run to earnings, Wednesday's advance to a
high of $89.00 allowed us to finish our play in positive
territory. Utilities were strong Wednesday, helping to drive the
stock higher. Much of the advance was the result of heavy buying
early in the day, in expectation of good earning results to
follow. Those who bought in with this expectation were not
disappointed. Reporting a 200% increase for the first quarter,
Calpine gained a $0.27 cents for the quarter, a net income of
$18.1 million. Future prospects look bright for CPN, and we'll
keep you updated on further plays.
Picked on April 23rd @ $85.38
Profit/Loss = +2.18 (+3%) (Dropped on Wednesday's close of $87.56)
Best Profit = +3.62 (+4%)
| |
VSH - Vishay Intertechnology Inc. $78.13 +6.50 (+14.12)
For all those who bought VSH on the breakout, you were also
awarded a pleasant surprise today, a good earnings report! As
most of our readers may already know, we play the stock right up
to earnings and exit just ahead of the announcement. VSH was
expected to report next week on either May 3rd or 4th. Their
subsidiary, Siliconix (SILI), reported Wednesday, followed by VSH
today, which was unexpected. Our policy of picking strong market
performers still allowed us to gain in the face of this
uncertainty. As for the earnings release, the company gained a
solid 100% increase over the last quarter by posting a $0.84 net
income. We are dropping this play now as the earnings spike may
be followed by some post-earnings profit taking.
Picked on April 25th @ $67.50
Profit/Loss = +11.50 (+17%)
Best Profit = +16.25 (+24%)
| |
WLA - Warner-Lambert Company $116.69 -1.31 (+3.25)
Despite what looked like a potential run on Monday, today WLA
traded lower on increased volume, not a sign we are thrilled
about. Tuesday's volume was lighter by one half and was indeed a
concern. Additionally, for those of you who are dedicated
chartists, on Tuesday we saw a formation known as a "hanging
man". The formation is a Japanese Candlestick formation and can
often indicate a turnaround. We believe in light of the lower
close today that this would be a good time to part Company with
WLA. We will watch for future opportunities and better chart
patterns to develop. Also, we will watch for the Pfizer merger
and see how things progress in that arena.
Picked on April 23rd @ $113.44
Profit/Loss = +3.25 (+3%)
Best profit = +6.75 (+6%)
| |