NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
GE - General Electric $166.00 +3.94 (+7.50)
General Electric is one of the largest industrial corporations in
the world. The Company makes a wide variety of products,
including major appliances, lighting products, industrial
automation products, medical diagnostic imaging equipment,
motors, electrical distribution and control equipment,
locomotives, power generation and delivery products, nuclear
power support services and fuel assemblies, commercial and
military aircraft jet engines, and engineered materials. They
also provide a host of services such as electrical apparatus
installation, engineering, repair and rebuilding services,
financial services, television broadcasting, and computer-
related information services. The stock is considered to be a
proxy for both the US and worldwide equity markets. Shares of GE
climbed to an all-time high on Tuesday after previously failing
twice to break the $160 resistance level during late March and
early April. Strength came on news of a new GE sponsored online
banking system and an agreement with Kubota Corporation to
distribute GE's line of fuel cells. The Company announced a 3:1
stock split on 12/17 and the payable date will be determined at
their Annual Shareholder Meeting on Wednesday, when the
shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares to
accommodate the split. The stock established a breakout Tuesday
so we may see next resistance at $170 or $175. Support is the 5-
dma at $160 with stronger support at the 10-dma, now at $156. Use
a bounce off of $160 or a breakout above $170 to initiate new
positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. We will set an exit as soon as the Company sets a payable
date.
Picked on April 25th @ $166.00
Change since picked +0.00
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PAYX - Paychex, Inc. $55.31 +3.25 (+4.56)
An explosion in small and medium sized businesses has helped
Paychex cash in on profits. Why bother with a payroll and
retirement services department if you can outsource it to
Paychex, a Company with considerable economies of scale and
efficiency. It is a win-win situation for both the service
provider and the client. Over the weekend, Barron's included PAYX
in a list of the top 25 performing stocks for investors. This is
exactly the kind of company investors are looking for during
these difficult investment times. PAYX kept an impressive record
going by announcing a 3:2 for the sixth consecutive April. The
payable date is set for May 22nd. PAYX reported another very
good quarter back in the middle of March. The $0.20 per share
was a penny ahead of expectations. We are looking for companies
that have been able to maintain their uptrends during this
correction. After years of steady returns, few investors seem
willing to part with their PAYX holdings and this has been
reflected in the Company's chart. PAYX has been trading in a
tight range between $47 and $55 for the past month. The stock
appears to be ready to break out to the upside, especially given
today's solid close right at the high of $55.50. Any move higher
can be bought by a momentum investor. Previous "new high"
breakouts have seen price accumulations of approximately 10%.
One indicator of a potential continuation of this bullish move is
the fact that the MACD crossed over into positive ground today.
Very short-term traders might be satisfied by taking profits in
the low $60's if momentum slows. Support is sitting back between
$50-$51, bolstered by the 5, 10, 20 and 50-dma's all stacked in
that area. We will be exiting this position before the May 22nd
payable date.
Picked on April 25th @ $55.31
Change since picked 0.00
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TFS - Three-Five Systems $81.88 +4.38 (+1.25)
You would be hard-pressed to find a technology stock that has
held up better than TFS during this period of extreme volatility.
This LCD manufacturer has inured itself against the steep sell-
offs and has been able to maintain a solid uptrend. There are a
couple of possibilities for this relative strength. TFS has very
strong fundamentals. The Company's LCD products are found in a
wide range of products, especially in mobile devices. The
popularity of their products has enabled TFS to post solid
earnings and revenue growth. The last quarterly report showed a
huge profit of 27 cents which was $0.12 ahead of estimates. TFS
has also been insulated from the selling because it is a high
technology growth stock that can hide over on the NYSE, away from
the ravaging bands of market makers and day traders. Helping
matters is that TFS actually has strong earnings growth and a
moderately reasonable P/E ratio to boot! However, it does seem
that the Delta (relative price movement of the stock vs. the
overall market) has been increasing in recent weeks. TFS intends
to split 3:2 on May 12th. The Annual Meeting is Thursday. At
the meeting a vote will be taken to increase the number of
authorized shares enabling the Company to enact the split.
Usually we would wait a little longer after a split announcement
before adding a split play but since the payable date falls so
soon after the announcement we feel that the split run could
occur immediately. TFS looks very solid technically. The stock
is in a nice uptrend and a continued rally could take it into new
high ground, above $87 very quickly. The MACD (a technical
momentum indicator) is strongly positive, as it has been
throughout the correction. If the stock gaps up tomorrow, you
may be able to pick up shares on a small pullback. Support is at
$80 and you want to make sure it stays above that price before
entering a position. The next support would be the lower trend
line, which is approximately at $77. We will be exiting this
position in the session preceding May 12th payable date.
Picked on April 25th @ $81.88
Change since picked. 0.00
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TXN - Texas Instruments, Inc. $152.00 +10.75 (+7.00)
Everything is bigger in Texas, so the saying goes. If that is
true then this should be one heck of a split run for the Dallas
based Semiconductor Company. Texas Instruments is a worldwide
supplier of semiconductor products, which include digital signal
processors and analog integrated circuits. We dropped this play
earlier in the month just before a nasty slide from $160 all the
way down to the 100-dma at $128.25. On 4/20 the company announced
a 2 for 1 stock split with a payable date of 5/22. The long
Easter weekend gave investors time to chew on the upside
potential of TXN. In the face of Monday's big selling kicked off
with bad karma coming from Microsoft, TXN stood little chance to
make its move. Today we saw interest begin as investors dieted on
TXN and other chip stocks right from the open. On 4/18 A G
Edwards analyst gave TXN an upgrade to a buy rating. More good
news flowed from the company Monday as they rolled out the
industry's first complete portfolio of multi-mode ADSL CPE
chipsets; Programmable DSP-based Chipsets which enable the
industry's smallest ADSL modems. This new technology will enable
PC, modem and Internet appliance manufacturers to offer users
broadband connectivity via the device of their choice whether
they prefer DSL-ready desktop PC's, stand alone modems, set-top-
boxes or more. Technically the chart looks ready to challenge the
trend line just overhead at $152. Volume will be needed to boost
the stock through this level, so look for heavy intraday trading
on a move higher as confirmation of the rally. The next
resistance will be encountered as the stock challenges the 50-dma
near $160. Enter new plays after confirming the momentum from the
chip index (SOX) and the sector. Place stops at 138.
Picked on April 25th at $152.00
Change since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
ALTR - Altera $98.88 +9.06 (+7.69)
Altera Corporation is a leading provider of programmable logic
devices (PLDs) and associated development tools. Altera was the
first supplier of Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS)
programmable logic devices used in high-speed, high-density and
low-power applications including telecommunications, data
communications, electronic data processing and industrial
applications. The stock hit an all-time high of $99.25 on March
6th and proceeded to fall back to $71.25 by April 14th. The
Company announced earnings on April 12th and on the same day, it
was announced that ALTR would be added to the S&P 500 index. The
recent strength in the Composite now joins the relative strength
of ALTR for a potentially great split candidate play. They
currently have 400 million shares authorized and 199.5 million
shares issued but on May 10th, the shareholders will vote on
increasing the number of authorized shares from 400 million to
700 million at the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders. We
are anticipating a split announcement following the meeting. As
for the stock, support is at the 5-dma at $94 with stronger
support at the 10-dma, currently at $88. There is psychological
resistance at the century mark and with additional resistance at
$5 increments. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $94 or a
breakout above $100 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment
and sector direction before opening new positions.
Picked on Apr 25th @ $98.88
Change since picked +0.00
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CIEN - CIENA CORPORATION $105.87 +15.37 (+8.87)
Ciena Corporation is in the business of optical networking
equipment. The company offers products for data and Tele-
communications service providers throughout the world. What was
once resistance is now support, on the chart pattern of CIEN.
Back in December and January, the resistance level for CIEN was
79.00. Then back on April 4th and 17th, this level was challenged
not as resistance but as support. Following the bounce on the
17th, the stock has been consolidating into a trading range
between 89 and 104. Today's close above that level is a positive
sign and an indication of a possible reversal in the making. We
need a close outside of the upper channel line to confirm though,
so you may want to wait. The critical level is approximately
$105 for Wednesday. Today, the fiber optics group traded
strongly higher on blowout earnings from Corning Inc. Earnings
from CIEN are scheduled for May 18th and we expect further upside
from this point. The company currently has 140 million shares
outstanding and 360 million authorized enough for a 2 for 1
split. CIEN has support at the 100-dma at 97.00 and below that it
can be found at a long established trend line at about 90.
Resistance is upstairs at $110 (near the 20-dma) then at the 50-
dma near $130. Confirm new positions with positive volume as well
as reinforced movement in the overall market. The stock may enjoy
further upside as investors listen to the comments made by top
executives who are speaking this week at a conference in San
Francisco. Place stops just below 90 to avoid another testing of
the 79.00 level.
Picked on April 25th at $105.87
Change since picked 0.00
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INKT - Inktomi Corporation $141.94 +15.13 (+12.81)
As Internet startups continue to flood the market, Inktomi (INKT)
is well positioned to assist these companies with scalable
infrastructure software. So much has been said lately about the
hefty competition for dueling companies that run similar
businesses on the Internet, but this is precisely where Inktomi
stands to gain. In order to be competitive, dot.com businesses
will have to purchase Inktomi software to gain that competitive
edge. Somewhere along the line, investors have captured the
potential for INKT and have produced stages of steady buying over
the past year. Currently, the Company has 300 million shares
authorized and 107.2 outstanding. Due to its recent rebound, the
stock has retraced to previous split territory ($145). Given the
strength of this rebound and its current trading range, it's not
out of the question for a split to occur in the near future. Much
of this recovery was the result of a solid bounce off the 200-dma
last week. Carrying prices higher after the bounce was an upgrade
from Merrill Lynch to a near-term buy. The strength behind this
current advance may send prices up to test the $150 level. From
there, expect further resistance at the 50-dma at $160. As for
support, the 5-dma should offer some at $130, followed with
additional support at $125. Potential plays can be opened with
price reversals off support or advances through resistance, when
market momentum is affirmed. Use support and resistance to
trigger buys or sells. We will update you as to any upcoming
triggering events that may foster a split announcement as they
become publicized.
Picked on April 25th @ $141.94
Change since picked 0.00
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TER - Teradyne $103.38 +10.88 (+7.07)
Semiconductor equipment stocks were among the strongest during
the correction and Teradyne was among the most resilient.
Teradyne successfully tested the mid $70's three times in the
past two months and has built a formidable base from which it
made a new high today. Semiconductor equipment companies have
been very strong due to the solid growth prospects for the
industry. Semiconductor demand is very strong. Perhaps the most
beneficial dynamic is the fact that as chips become increasingly
complex, manufacturers need more complex equipment to make the
chips. This leads to a constant demand for innovative and high
margin products from companies like TER. Another contributory
factor to Teradyne's strength is the Company's very healthy
fundamentals. Momentum traders want stocks with earnings. With
a PE at a relatively low 66, Teradyne is a comparative bargain to
the stocks of other fast growing industries. A split
announcement could be a little ways off. There is an Annual
Meeting on May 25th. A vote will be taken during the meeting to
increase the number of authorized shares and would be an
excellent time to announce a split. TER posted a solid quarter
last week, beating the Street by $0.08 and coming in at $0.60 a
share. The earnings were rewarded with upgrades from AG Edwards
and Bear Stearns. The move into new highs offers us the
opportunity to trade a stock with almost no overhead resistance,
which is very rare indeed these days. The MACD is positive and
has plenty of room to go on the upside. RSI also has some upside
before indicating a short term overbought condition. Positions
can be initiated as long as the stock stays above $100. A slip
below that price and you may want to wait for a bounce off of $95
(5-DMA) before going long. There are not any immediate events on
the horizon that would force us to exit this position. As
always, we will exit following a split announcement.
Picked on April 25th @ $103.38
Change since picked 0.00
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VRSN - VERISIGN, Inc. $111.00 +11.62 (-7.50)
P.E.A.D - Post earnings announcement depression? Perhaps this
explains the recent behavior of Versign, Inc., after beating
consensus estimates last week but missing the whisper number. At
any rate, we re-initiate coverage of VRSN in expectation of a
forth-coming split announcement. In May the company is expected
to hold its annual shareholders meeting, although a date has yet
to be specified, we are anticipating this event to spark a split
announcement. Yesterday, the stock traded as low as 91.00, a
level of support tested twice earlier in the month. We now feel
that with earnings behind us and with the formation of a triple
bottom, that VRSN is poised to run. Volume today was up 25% from
average, to 5.1 million shares. Recent run-ups in the stock have
been accompanied by volume of at least 5 million shares, expect
no less now and use this as a confirmation of a sustainable
rally. Beside the pending $21 billion dollar acquisition of
Network Solutions, VRSN should have little to hold it back from a
nice run. Support is back at $91.00 while light resistance might
be tested at $116.90 (the 200-dma) $120 then at $130. If today's
comments about a NASDAQ rally and a possible bottom hold true,
then VRSN should be on the profit train. Confirm the movement in
the NASDAQ and the sector before going into this play. VRSN can
be a quick gainer, don't get greedy; take profits when they come
by using trailing stops. We will be watching for a date for the
shareholders meeting and advise you accordingly. Our stop will be
set at 90.00.
Picked on April 25th at $111.00
Change since picked 0.00
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VSH - Vishay Intertechnology Inc. $67.50 +5.75 (+2.63)
Can you imagine a technology stock that was scarcely afflicted by
the month long correction in the NASDAQ composite? Well, we've
found one for you! A leading manufacturer of passive electronic
components and semiconductors, Vishay, has proven that earnings
really do make a difference. Set to grow revenues by 35% in 2000
and 15% in 2001, VSH has been able to generate solid growth
through a dynamic acquisition strategy. This strong growth has
sent shares running to new 52-week highs and well above previous
split levels. The Company, which currently has 86.1 million
shares and 20 million authorized, will ask shareholders to vote
for additional shares at the annual meeting (5/18). Currently,
the chart is looking very ready for a possible breakout to new
all-time highs. Today's strong advance on good volume (900K)
should help to assist this breakout and send prices above their
52-week high of $68.94. Above this level, expect to see extended
resistance at the $75 mark. As for support, $60 should be
healthy, propped up by the 20-dma ($60.23). Beyond this point,
the 50-dma of $54.13 has been providing good trendline support
over the past month. Look to open new positions when solid
bounces off support or runs through resistance are confirmed by
good volume. The earnings date is in question and will be
confirmed in future updates.
Picked on April 25th @ $67.50
Change since picked 0.00
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XLNX - Xilinx $70.38 +7.38 (+4.63)
XLNX has been one of the favorites of the semiconductor trader
for much of this year. Today, XLNX got a huge boost from Merrill
Lynch when the brokerage firm held a company wide conference call
revealing the technology stocks that their analysts believe will
be the biggest beneficiaries of the post PC world. The reason
for this enthusiasm is because XLNX makes some of the most
advanced and versatile chips in the world. XLNX's customizable
chips are used in industries as far reaching as
telecommunications to medical instrumentation. Research firm
W.R. Hambrecht also took advantage of yesterday's price weakness
and raised their rating to Strong Buy from Buy. XLNX last split
its shares in December. The 2:1 split was announced when the
stock was only trading at $68.63. With the stock trading at
similar levels today, a split announcement is possible. We are
not depending on a split to make this play work, especially
considering that the previous two splits were announced in
conjunction with an earnings announcement. XLNX reported
earnings last week and posted a solid quarter, beating the
Street's estimates by a penny. The Company currently does not
have enough authorized shares for a 2:1 split. The better story
for a nice run in XLNX can be found in the technicals. XLNX
formed a nice base at $54 during last week's carnage and bounced
back to $70.13. Yesterday's selling took the stock down to a
level that was comfortably above last week's low, as investors
could not be baited out of this favorite this time around. By
closing just above last week's high today, it appears that XLNX
is ready to take on the task of re-capturing the rest of its
early April losses. Consequently, we recommend adding positions
at current levels. A good place to enter a stop order would be
just below yesterday's low of $59.75. Otherwise, look for XLNX
to slowly move higher and perhaps test its old high at $88.50 in
a week or two. Between there and the current level, expect
resistance $74 as both the 20 and 50-dma's reside at that level.
The technicals will probably dictate when we exit this one,
unless we do get some sort of split announcement out of the
Company.
Picked on April 25th @ $70.38
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
DOW - Dow Chemical Company $108.00 -1.00 (+2.63)
Can you picture a chemical manufacturing company behaving like a
growth stock? If not, then one look at the DOW chart may make you
change your mind. Several large price advances, common to the
technology market, give DOW the appearance of a growth stock.
Many of these advances are likely due to DOW's strong foothold in
the highly cyclical chemical market. To add another interesting
development, DOW just released plans today to develop the first
world-scale facility that creates plastics from corn. Commenting
on the release, Lee Klein, president of the National Corn Growers
Association, stated, "The development of a manufacturing plant
that can make commercially available plastics and natural-
synthetic fibers out of an agricultural crop, such as corn, is a
significant milestone for U.S. farmers". Though today's news
release was likely responsible for an early advance to $111.63,
shares settled off their highs to close at $108. With pre-
earnings momentum, we expect to see another run-up near today's
highs where initial resistance might come at the 20-dma
($112.40). If good volume can push prices through this level,
then look to the 100-dma ($116.16) as the next area to take
profits. Remember to act swiftly at these levels, as reversals
may be quick. We'll plan on closing positions ahead of
Wednesday's close, as earnings will be released the following
morning, 4/27.
Picked on April 23rd @ $105.38
Change since picked +2.62
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MRVC - MRV Communications $58.88 +10.63 (+2.81)
MRV Communications is holding its ground and looks ready to move
higher from the basing area near $50. On Tuesday, the stock
traded sharply higher up from support. The good news here is
that MRVC also made a higher low during Monday's panic selling,
which is a positive sign. The Company is expected to announce
earnings on 4/27 after the bell and we are going to drop this
play on Thursday (before the close) to avoid any post-earnings
depression. They have already announced a 2:1 split, payable in
May, so why risk it. Going forward, support has come in at the
200-dma, now at $53 with additional support at $50. Set stops
under $50 to limit losses. Resistance remains firm at $60 and
then $65. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $53 or a move
above $60. Open new positions on strong volume only in a rising
market. We recommend an exit by Thursday with possible re-entry
after assessing the earnings results and general market
sentiment.
Picked on Apr 23rd @ $56.06
Change since picked +2.81
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MU - Micron Technology, Inc. $129.88 +6.50 (+4.63)
I bet you can't buy just one. Chip stocks were gobbled up today
as investors charged back into the market. Micron gapped open and
traded as high as $133 before giving back a few points at the
close. Micron, which is a global leader in DRAM and SRAM
semiconductor components, must be pleased that PC demand has hit
recent highs. Micron is scheduled to split on 5/2 with Monday
(5/1) being the paydate. We will be exiting this play on Friday
(4/28), thus making this a very short-term play. Despite the
advance today, volume was less than impressive at 4.88 million
shares, down almost 30 percent. The resistance level mentioned in
our last report was challenged unsuccessfully today at $132.00.
Once again, a convincing run should be accompanied with volume of
at least 6 million shares or a convincing and sustained break out
through resistance. Light support is at $125, the 5-dma, with
better support at $117, the 10-dma. Again, this is very short
term; we will be out by Friday's close, if not sooner.
Picked on April 23rd @ $125.25
Change since picked +4.63
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ZOMX - Zomax Incorporated $42.13 +1.13 (-0.82)
Integrating itself into key day-to-day customer operations, Zomax
has been able to provide outsourcing for rapid growth in computer
applications. One example of this is the authoring and mastering
of CD and DVD products. ZOMX uses state of the art clean rooms to
assist clients in editing and encoding information for CD and DVD
replication. Future demand for many of the company's outsource-
related products continues to look strong, as well as its $50
million in cash and small debt. As for the chart, shares have
offered good buy opportunities this week in the form of good
intra-day bounces off the 200-dma ($39.13). This level should
continue to provide solid support for further possible entries.
If ZOMX can advance from current levels, we expect the half-
century mark, bolstered by the 100-dma of $49.30, to remain as a
true test of resistance for further advances. Above this level,
expect to see the 50-dma of $53.48 to represent the next wall of
resistance. At current levels, volume has remained relatively
light and may suggest to us that selling pressure is finally
drying up. Look to open new positions when strong volume (500k
or better) accompanies price advances. We'll plan on exiting the
stock before the payable date of 5/8.
Picked on April 23rd @ $42.94
Change since picked -0.81
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
A - Agilent Technologies $90.00 -1.62 (+0.06)
We are getting a nice little bounce in the shares of Agilent but
it is a bit of a stretch to say that the stock is really moving
in light of the huge rally in the shares of other technology
leaders. We certainly hope that the stock can catch up soon. It
is entirely possible that the stock is losing a little interest
among traders due to the fact that HWP will be spinning off the
remaining shares of Agilent that it still holds. The spin-off
date is May 2nd. Having said that, the technicals are starting
to look positive. The first hurdle was the stock's ability to
hold support and stay above our stop, which is just under $84,
despite a major tech wreck yesterday. As volatile as Agilent is,
it does maintain a bit of stability due to the fact that it
trades on the NYSE. Agilent closed near its high yesterday and
was able to follow through on today's positive action with a
minor rally today, again closing near its intraday high. All
indications are that the stock could pop up again tomorrow and
test the $100 psychological barrier. The MACD (a technical
momentum indicator) looks like it wants to cross over into
positive territory. If this happens, a strategy of using
trailing stops could be very effective. In the early going
tomorrow, we suggest raising your stops to lock in profits, a
logical stop could be placed at $89. If you want to protect
yourself a bit more it would be alright to raise your stop to
$91.50, just below today's low. If Agilent closes above $95 you
may wish to raise your stop more for the next session. Hopefully
we can get a nice stair-step recovery up till May 2nd. We intend
to drop this play before the HWP share spin-off.
Picked on April 18th @ $87.00
Change since picked +3.00
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AMD - Advanced Micro Devices $87.50 +6.50 (+9.25)
We want chips, we want chips! Perhaps this wasn't the exact
chanting on Wall Street today, but it sure could have been. Not
only did AMD close at a new all time high today, but interest in
the semiconductor giant was exhibited in other ways too. Monday's
news announced that PC sales hit 30 million in the period ending
March 31 and companies like AMD were having trouble keeping pace
with the demand for chips. Additional bullish sentiment was
expressed today, as the option call volume was higher than normal
as investors loaded up on May, June and July options on AMD. This
on the heels of AMD rolling out a prototype AMD Athlon™ processor
platform supporting Double Data Rate (DDR) memory. DDR memory is
the highest bandwidth and lowest-latency PC memory available.
This new technology will deliver new levels of performance on
math-intensive applications like video editing, CAD/CAM, and
scientific applications. The good news, along with a broad market
rally, was more than enough to lift AMD to new levels today.
Volume was above average today at 6.3 million shares. Thursday,
the Company meets to vote on increasing shares; hopefully they
will announce a split at that time. Resistance will be the
current price until we see otherwise. Support is back at the 5-
dma at $80.00. For the first time in a few days there was talk of
a NASDAQ bottom and commentators were buzzing with talk of
today's tech rally. We would expect that as we approach the
annual meeting that further interest would be generated in AMD.
Follow the lead of the broad market and the sector before
entering any new positions. We would place at stop at $75.00 (10-
dma) to lock in profits.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked +21.50
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BRCM - Broadcom $160.88 +19.00 (+8.38)
Broadcom was off to a terrible weekly start with mid-Monday
trading, sliding down to an intra-day low of $126.06 on heavy
volume. The stock came back late in the day as the NASDAQ
recovered. Shares of BRCM continued to rise on Tuesday thanks to
a bullish call from Merrill Lynch, calling Broadcom a "must own"
post-PC stock. This was very helpful because it shows that BRCM
is not dependent on the slowing PC market. Also boosting the
stock was a company issued report that BRCM is testing two new
integrated circuits for broadband communications. The Company
has its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27, at which time the
shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares. We
are hoping for a split announcement as a result of the meeting.
In the meantime, there is light support at $155, with stronger
support on the 5 and 10-dma's at $149. Today's action took out
light resistance at $160, so new resistance is at the 100-dma at
$166.65, then $170. Set stops under $149 as protection. Look
for a bounce off of $155 or a move above $167 on heavy volume to
open new positions. Confirm market direction and sector momentum
before starting new plays. Plan to exit in the session following
a split announcement.
Picked on April 23rd @ $152.50
Change since picked +8.38
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CPN - Calpine Corporation $84.63 +0.00 (-0.76)
Investing in utility companies generally requires a lot of
patience, as profits are slowly accumulated over time. These
rules just don't apply to the rapid growth philosophy of Calpine,
whose return on investment was over 400% in 1999. To reaffirm its
strong commitment to future growth, last week CPN stated that it
plans to build a huge 250-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant
in Calgary. The investment, which comes at the cost of $135
million, will present the company's first investment in the
Canadian power industry and will likely be a significant addition
to future revenues. Currently, shares have remained in a tight
consolidation this week, finishing off the day unchanged.
A break out of this consolidation should encounter its first
resistance at the $90 mark, reinforced by both the 30 and 50-
dma's ($90.54 and $91.75), respectfully. Advances through this
level should face firm secondary resistance at the century mark.
Price advances through resistance, when combined with above
average volume (940k) will present good entry points. On the
downside, look for $80 to show good support, bolstered by the
100-dma of $80.84. Entries can be affirmed by hard bounces off
support when confirmed by good volume.
Editors Note:
As confirmed by the Company, earnings are due for release
Thursday before the market. We will therefore exit this play as
of Wednesday's close.
Picked on April 23rd @ $85.38
Change since picked -0.75
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LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor $63.00 +5.94 (+0.06)
Lattice Semiconductor opened lower Monday morning as Microsoft
(MSFT) woes swept through the tech sector. LSCC hit an intra-day
low of $54 but made a lackluster comeback late in the day. The
stock made a full recovery by closing bell on Tuesday. Volume
was average and LSCC appears to be consolidating here. The
Company has scheduled its Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 2nd
and we are looking for a split announcement following the
meeting. Until then, support remains at $60 with stronger
support at Monday's low of $54. Place stops under $54 prevent
additional losses. There is resistance at $66 and then $70.
Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $60 or a move above $66 on
heavy volume. Confirm sector momentum and market sentiment before
opening new positions. Plan to exit shortly after the Annual
Meeting.
Picked on April 23rd @ $62.94
Change since picked +0.06
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LVLT - Level 3 Communications $84.50 +6.50 (+1.12)
Level 3 Communications announced a new, long-term network
services agreement with America Online (AOL), expanding the
company's original agreement, which was announced in October. AOL
will expand its use of Level 3's managed modem and network
connection services. The stock popped on Tuesday following the
news, trading up to $84.88 on strong volume. The Annual
Shareholder Meeting will be held on 5/22 and we are looking for a
split announcement in the near future or following their
Shareholder Meeting. They currently have enough shares for a
split so they could announce at any time. For now, LVLT has
support at $79 which coincides with the 10 and 200-dma's. Further
support is down at $75. Place stops under $75 to minimize losses.
Resistance is steady at $88, now the 20-dma and then $90. Use a
bounce off of $79 or a move above $88 to open new positions.
Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to
exit following the Annual Meeting or in the session following a
split announcement.
Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +2.00
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ORCL - Oracle Corporation $75.56 +3.12 (+4.75)
Keeping up with global demand for its management software has
allowed Oracle to maintain its leadership position in this highly
competitive industry. This leadership role has given Oracle a
huge following and made it a favorite among many brokerage firms.
The latest following comes from Lehman Brothers, who initiated
coverage on ORCL with a buy rating. The announcement, which came
just after the opening bell, helped shares to gain 4.57% to
finish at $75.75. The significance of today's advance was
twofold. First, shares we able to gap and run above the 50-dma
($75.21) resistance level. This advance was also fueled by a good
increase in volume (30.9m shares). The combination of these two
factors leads us to believe that additional advances will likely
continue. Look for price runs off current levels or hard bounces
off the 50-dma, to find initial resistance at $80, bolstered by
the 30-dma of $78.79. Higher still, anticipate stiff resistance
at the 52-week high of $90.00. Use trailing stops to lock in
profits as price advances mature. Plan to hold shares through the
shareholders meeting (5/10) for a split announcement to follow.
Picked on April 16th @ $63.52
Change since picked +12.04
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WLA - Warner-Lambert Company $118.38 +0.25 (+4.94)
Halitosis, eczema and sinusitis; if you have ever suffered from
one of these then you probably should know more about Warner-
Lambert Company. Best known for over the counter products like
Listerine, Lubriderm Lotion and Sudafed, WLA has enjoyed a couple
of profitable days in the market. On Monday, drug stocks rallied
as Merck announced positive numbers before the bell. WLA also
manufactures Lipitor, an anti-cholesterol drug that rivals
Merck's product, Zocur. Today, WLA achieved another new closing
high of $118.38. Though the new high is a positive sign, it came
on less than normal volume of 2.12 million shares, which should
give investors concern. New highs on better than average volume
is a much more bullish sign. The month of May will bring the long
awaited merger with Pfizer. Other than that, no pressing news is
on the horizon, although a split announcement is a possibility
since the stock is trading at the current level. We would like
to see volume increase to better than 3.7 million to confirm this
new level. Support is at the 5-dma at $115 and then at $110.
Resistance for now is yesterday's high at $120. Keep stops at
$107 to limit losses.
Picked on April 23rd @ $113.44
Change since picked +4.94
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YHOO - Yahoo! $124.50 +10.63 (+2.00)
Yahoo! was rocked on Monday courtesy of a negative Barron's
article, warning of a potential slowdown in ad revenue. The stock
traded lower on the news, hitting an intra-day low of $107 on
Monday. The losses were reversed on Tuesday as the NASDAQ mounted
a nice rally, taking YHOO along for the ride. Now that the stock
has re-tested its 4/17 low, it may be able to run. The Company is
holding its Annual Shareholders Meeting on 5/12 when the
shareholders are voting on an increase in the number of
authorized shares. We are holding for a possible split
announcement following the Annual Meeting. On the technical side,
there is light support at $120, with additional support at $115
and then Monday's low of $107. Place stops under $107 to limit
losses. Resistance comes first at $127, which is the 200-dma.
Next resistance is at $130, and then $135. Look for a bounce off
of $120 or a break above $127 on heavy volume to initiate new
positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before
starting new plays.
Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked -2.19
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
NT - Nortel Networks Corporation $112.50 +14.00 (+10.00)
Providing further proof that its aggressive expansion campaign is
rendering bottom line results, NT reported a profit jump of $347m
or 23 cents a share after the bell. The results came in 5 cents
higher than the 18 cents analysts were expecting. Traders, who
gave the stock a nice pre-earnings run of 14.75 points today,
provided us with yet another profitable play. The future of
Nortel continues to look bright and should provide us ample
opportunities for upcoming plays. We'll keep you posted.
Picked on April 18th @ $108.75
Profit/Loss = +3.75 (+3%)
Best Profit = +11.25 (+10%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
CLRN - Clarent Corporation $61.00 +14.75 (+7.50)
BRAVO! Very nice earnings run today from Clarent Corporation.
Nonetheless, we bid farewell for now as we hold fast to our
policy not to hold through earnings. After the close, the Company
reported net revenues of 24.6 million dollars, which represents a
266% increase from the same quarter last year. The Company
experienced a net loss of 0.02 cents per shares. Consensus
estimates were for a loss of 0.05 cents with a whisper number of
0.04. As previously stated, we exited ahead of the announcement.
We will watch CLRN for further trading opportunities.
Picked on April 18th @ $56.75
Profit/loss = +4.25 (+7%)
Best profit = +14.13 (+25%)
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MXIM - Maxim $65.88 +7.06 (+6.13)
Maxim announced earnings after the bell on Tuesday. They were in-
line with expectations and they did not announce a split.
Hopefully, you took our advice and got out before the closing
bell because in-line results have been frowned upon lately. This
why we like to get out before the numbers are released. If you
still have open positions on MXIM, place tight stops under $65
and look for an exit Wednesday.
Picked on April 16th @ $50.31
Profit/Loss = +15.56 (+31%)
Best Profit = +16.06 (+32%)
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PWAV - Powerwave Technologies Inc. $179.81 +19.00 (+11.56)
We were unplugged from the "Power" as a "wave" of sellers came
into the market on Monday when the stock hit our stop at $150. In
volatile times such as these, one can expect that stops will be
hit. Long term however, the discipline of using stops will prove
to be a valuable tool in the trader's toolbox. This is a good
example of why not to trade in the first 15-30 mins. of trading
as the market makers tend to manipulate the market. Powerwave
recovered nicely today and we will be watching for future
opportunities as they may soon announce a split. The Company has
their annual meeting scheduled for tomorrow at which time they
may approve a 3 for 1 split. We will keep you advised of any
developments with Powerwave.
Picked on April 23rd @ $168.25
Profit/loss = -18.25 (-11%) (Stopped out Monday @ $150.00)
Best Profit = -11.87 (-7%) (Based upon Monday's open @ $156.38)
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TFS - Three-Five Systems $81.88 +4.38 (+1.25)
TFS was barely able to climb into profit territory for the week
today after gaining over 4 points on a split announcement. The
3:2 split was announced before the open today. According to our
strategy of selling at the close following a split announcement,
you likely sold TFS on the close today. In a highly unusual
move, we have decided to re-add TFS as a split play immediately
because the payable date is extremely close and is set for May
12th. If you did not sell on the close you should hold on to
your position. The split is contingent upon a shareholder
approval of an increase in the number of authorized shares. The
vote will be held during the April 27th annual meeting. TFS has
been a strong relative strength trooper in this market and we
believe that jumping back in could result in some nice profits.
See the NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS section for more details on the play
going forward.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.50
Profit/Loss = +15.38 (+23%) (End of Split Candidate Play)
Best Profit = +20.50 (+31%)
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TIBX - Tibco Software $79.38 +14.38 (+11.50)
Tibco is fast becoming a great trading stock as it attempts to
build a base in the $55-$75 range. Perhaps our stop was a bit
tight but the stock did slice through the $64 stop price like a
hot knife through butter during the opening minutes of the
session following the MSFT earnings report (it actually traded as
low as $58). If we are going to make money during this wild
market period our number one mantra is to preserve capital. We
made a little profit and you have the money to make your next
play. Wonder how many people sold at the bottom yesterday?
Picked on April 18th @ $61.25
Profit/Loss = +2.75 (+4%) (Stopped out Monday @ $64.00)
Best Profit = +11.25 (+18%)
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VSTR - Voicestream Wireless $93.00 +6.13 (-7.94)
By being a disciplined trader yesterday and stopping out of VSTR
for a one point loss we avoided diving into our Maalox supplies
as the stock plummeted down to $83.50 during yesterday's panic
selling. It seemed entirely possible that the stock could drop
all the way down to last week's low of $80.50. We still like the
long-term prospects for this company and it appears that the
stock has put in a double bottom. Do not be surprised if we
visit this play again.
Picked on April 16th @ $90.00
Profit/Loss = -1.00 (-1%) (Stopped out Monday @ $89)
Best Profit = +19.50 (+22%)
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