NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
NT - Nortel Networks Corporation $108.75 +7.38 (+17.13)
The strong call for optical networking equipment has allowed
Nortel (NT) to produce a steady cycle of solid revenue growth.
Expected to increase revenues by 21% this year, Nortel's broad
base of data and telephony communications products, may soon be
able to deliver the worlds first all-optical network. This
optical division is currently growing 100% a year and represents
the likely future of communication networks. With regard to the
capital structure of the company, NT currently maintains an
unlimited number of authorized shares and a float of 640m. An 2:1
split announcement came on 1/25 and when shareholders meet on
4/27, they will determine the exact payable date. Shares have
matched a nice rebound with the NASDAQ composite and managed to
finish up 19% from Friday's close. Though just the beginning of
what may be a run back to last week's highs, we're looking for a
healthy advance through $110 to get us started. Today's close
over the 100-dma at $107.70 is technically positive. Challenged
slightly higher up by the 10-dma at $110.70, a good volume (10.0m
or better) advance through this level should send us to more
resistance at $120, bolstered by the 50-dma ($121.03). On the
downside, we are looking for initial support to be found at the
century mark, and further down at the recent low ($88.75). Look
to open positions when good volume can confirm advances through
resistance or rigid bounces off support. Plan on holding
positions through the shareholder's meeting (4/27), in
anticipation of the payable date announcement to follow.
Remember to trail your stops, to protect profits.
Picked on April 18th @ $108.75
Change since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
A - Agilent Technologies $87.00 +7.50 (+4.31)
Time to give Agilent another chance. When we last visited this
stock it was breaking below the important support level of $100.
Last week's devastating selloff has brought Agilent down to
attractive levels from where it is beginning to bounce.
Splitting up is sometimes hard to do but it has not been a
problem for Agilent. The Company was spun off from HWP back in
December at approximately $40. We have seen several successful
spin-offs from major DOW stocks and Agilent has kept that trend
alive by rallying all the way to $162 before running into
trouble. Although Agilent has not yet split in its young
history, we suspect that a rally over $100 could entice the Board
to announce a split. The Company has plenty of authorized shares
available to enact a split. Agilent is a huge supplier of test
and measurement equipment to the technology sector. In this
capacity, Agilent is a huge beneficiary of the networking boom
because the Company provides much of the equipment necessary to
keep networking hardware running smoothly. In a display of
continued leadership in this field, Agilent today released the
industry's first solution for testing IS-IS protocol performance
and standards evaluation. Agilent also released the first Web-
based remote diagnostic and management system for compactPCI
servers. One possible stumbling block for a further advance in
the shares of Agilent is HWP's planned spin-off of the remaining
shares of Agilent it holds to existing HWP shareholders. This
event will occur on May 2nd and it could provide a little selling
pressure in the short term as it could be safely assumed that not
every HWP shareholder will want to keep their Agilent shares.
Nevertheless, we believe that Agilent remains oversold and we
expect a snap back rally for the stock. Support was re-
established at $75 and a rally to at least the $100 resistance
seems likely. You can pick up shares here in the high $80's but
we urge caution because the overall market could reverse very
quickly. We will be exiting this position before the May 2nd
spin-off.
Picked on April 18th @ $87.00
Change since picked 0.00
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CLRN - Clarent Corporation $56.75 +8.25 (+5.87)
Putting it all together is what Clarent Corporation is all about.
A leading provider of Internet protocol (IP) telephony systems,
which permits simultaneous transmission of voice, fax and data
over the Internet. We bring back CLRN as a split candidate with
only a week to go until earnings, scheduled for 4/25. A quick
look at the chart would reveal a tremendous decline from the
intra-day high in March of $175.75 to Monday's low of $44.75. It
appears that CLRN may have found a bottom and is staging an
earnings run. In February, the stock ran 35 points going into
earnings. Especially impressive was Tuesday's volume at 1.24
million shares or twice normal volume. In February, the Company
increased the number of outstanding shares from 50 million to 200
million and has more than enough shares to effect its first stock
split. The consensus for next week's earnings is for a loss of
$0.05 with a whisper number calling for a loss of $0.04. A new
play for CLRN should be confirmed with good volume and upward
momentum in both the broad market and the sector. The stock is
right above its 5-dma, which should now provide some support at
the current level. Further support is at the half-century mark.
You might want to place a stop just below this level to limit
losses. Resistance is at the 10-dma at $71.59. We will be exiting
this play ahead of earnings on the 25th and then look for further
opportunities after that time. Should we get a split announcement
with earnings, we will advise you of any split run play
opportunities as they develop. Although the last two days have
been refreshing, we will want to see continued confirmation of
this rally in the NASDAQ and the NDX.
Picked on April 18th @ $56.75
Change since picked 0.00
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LVLT - Level 3 Communications $82.50 +2.56 (+9.13)
Level 3 Communications engages in information services,
communications and coal mining businesses in the United States
and abroad. They offer systems integration services that help its
customers define, develop and implement cost-effective
information services, and its reengineering services convert
legacy software applications into modern networked computing
environments. On Tuesday morning, the Company beat analysts'
estimates, posting a loss of $0.75 vs. the $1.00 loss estimates.
Total revenue for the quarter rose 74% compared to the same
period last year. Initially, the stock traded lower, hitting an
intra-day low of $73.75. However, LVLT recovered later in the day
and finished with a nice gain by the closing bell. Level 3
currently has 361.7 million shares outstanding and 1.5 billion
shares authorized and they also have an Annual Shareholder
Meeting on 5/22. We are looking for a split announcement in the
near future or following their Shareholder Meeting. On the
technical side, LVLT has support at the 200-dma at $79 with
stronger support just above Tuesday's low ($74). Resistance is
currently $85 and then $90. Initiate new positions on a bounce
off of $80 or a move above $85. Start new plays on heavy volume,
only in a rising market. Plan to exit shortly after the Annual
Meeting or in the session following a split announcement. Use
stops set just under support levels to protect against extended
price drops.
Picked on April 18th @ $82.50
Change since picked +0.00
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TIBX - Tibco Software $61.25 +5.31 (+12.94)
When trying to determine which Internet companies will come back
from last month's massacre, we are trying to focus on those
companies that have the strongest business models and the best
opportunities for earnings going forward. TIBX provides
infrastructure software that allows major corporations to link
internal operations with customer channels. It is entirely
possible that the real winners of the Internet revolution will be
the "old" economy companies who become more efficient through the
advances of technology. If they are going to be successful in
doing this they will need the type of software that TIBX
provides. One example of this was today's announcement that
Delta Airlines will be using TIBX's infrastructure software for
its real-time communication network. These types of contracts
with highly visible S&P 500 companies like Delta, could help
welcome back TIBX into the portfolios of investors. TIBX also
revealed this week its next generation B2B business
infrastructure software. This is a very aggressive play because
the stock is clearly in a downtrend. Bottom fishing is a dicey
business but TIBX does appear to be severely oversold at this
point on a RSI basis and the path of least resistance could be
up. There is very strong resistance at the last rally peak of
$85, although the 10-dma is sitting just above at $64. We would
not recommend entering a position if TIBX drops below $53, which
was today's low. $50 should offer support, followed by support
all the way down at Monday's capitulation low of $32.38.
Earnings were reported last month. If we get a surprise split
announcement, we will be exiting the position then. Otherwise,
we will be exiting this position due to technical factors.
Picked on April 18th @ $61.25
Change since picked 0.00
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YHOO - Yahoo! $126.69 +12.31 (+10.69)
Yahoo! Inc. is a leading Internet media company that offers an
international network of branded Internet programming that
provides broadcast media, personal communications and direct
services. The Company provides guides to online content, Web
search capabilities, aggregated third party content, mail and
community and a variety of personalization features. Yahoo! is
considered to be a blue-chip Internet stock and a proxy for the
entire sector. The Company announced earnings two weeks and they
beat analysts' expectations, but the stock tanked following the
news, trading down to an intra-day low of $108 on Monday. The
stock has been making a comeback since then, hitting $127.50 on
Tuesday, before the closing bell. We feel that the post-earnings
depression is over and there may be a split announcement coming
in the near future. YHOO has 536.6 million shares outstanding and
900 million shares authorized but it is holding an Annual Meeting
of Shareholders on 5/12 and will vote on a proposal to increase
the number of authorized shares from 900 million to 5 billion. We
are looking for a split announcement following the Annual
Meeting. Tuesday the stock closed even with the 200 day moving
average, indicating the buying interest is strong and
considerable upside remains. Light support is now at $120 with
additional support at Monday's low of $108. There is resistance
at the 5-dma, currently at $130 and then the 10-dma at $141. Use
a bounce off of $120 or a break above $130 on heavy volume to
open new positions. Confirm market direction and sector momentum
before starting new plays. Use stops set just under support to
protect profits/limit losses.
Picked on April 18th @ $126.69
Change since picked +0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
EXDS - Exodus Communications $111.00 +6.50 (+25.44)
Exodus caught a nice move this week. On Monday, shares of EXDS
initially traded down to its 200-dma but bounced back as the
NASDAQ rallied. EXDS closed the day at $104.50 on heavy volume.
The momentum continued on Tuesday as the stock traded up in step
with the NASDAQ. In the news, Exodus and Microsoft (MSFT)
announced that they are working together to provide e-commerce
companies with core Internet infrastructure and resources. The
Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/20, after the bell
which is driving the stock right now. They already announced a
2:1 stock split with a tentative payable date of 6/20. The
shareholders will vote on the stock split and an increase in
authorized shares at the next Annual Shareholders Meeting on 6/6.
We are now just 2 trading sessions away from the earnings
announcement so there is not much time left on this play. Going
forward, light support has come in at $104 with stronger support
on the 5-dma at the century mark. Set stops under $100 to lock in
gains. Resistance is the 100-dma at $116 and then $120. Look for
a bounce off of $104 or a move above $116 to initiate new
positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. We recommend an exit in before the earnings release on
4/20 with possible re-entry next week.
Picked on April 16th @ $85.56
Change since picked +25.44
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $79.00 +6.38 (+13.00)
NH(V)=P No this isn't a chemistry exam, but rather the result of
a stock hitting a New High, times good Volume, equals Profits.
That is the story today with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. In fact
the chip sector this week has been on earnings fire with stocks
like TXN, LSCC, VTSS, CY, and INTC all reporting better than
expected earnings. No doubt this lead the way to AMD hitting its
new high at $79.25 today. It also helps that AMD is seen as a
'value tech', after having reported great earnings last week.
Volume was up 61% today at 8.26 million shares, a nice compliment
to the broader NASDAQ and the NDX (NASDAQ 100) markets. AMD has a
shareholder's meeting on 4/27 with a vote to increase shares and
we suspect, announce a split. The past performance on AMD has
been for about 10 million shares on their breakout as seen in
March and April. This new threshold should be no different and we
will want to see similar volume continue to confirm this new
price level. Resistance is now at the new high at $79.25, with
support light at $72.00 with a better foundation back at the 20-
dma at $66.00. New plays should be confirmed with sector and
broader market direction. Place stops back at $65.00.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Profit/Loss +13.00
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MXIM - Maxim $62.19 +0.19 (+11.88)
Maxim started the week in negative territory, but quickly
reversed direction and moved higher. The stock closed on its
intra-day high of $62 Monday, a 23% gain! MXIM struggled a bit on
Tuesday, but managed to close the day with a small gain on
average volume as investors consolidated the huge Monday move.
Maxim is expected to announce earnings on 4/25 after the bell and
we are hoping for a split announcement to come out with the
earnings release. The Company currently enough shares for a 3:2
split so the announcement could come at any time. Until then, the
stock has support just above Tuesday's low at $59 with technical
support at the 100-dma, now at $55. Place stops under $55 to
protect profits. Resistance is now up to $65 and then $70. Start
new plays on a bounce up from support or a move above $65 on
heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction
before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings
on 4/25.
Picked on April 16th @ $50.31
Change since picked +11.88
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ORCL - Oracle Corporation $78.94 +4.13 (+15.44)
As the baby-boom generation progresses into retirement, Oracle is
finding new ways to assist healthcare organizations to control
costs and streamline processes. On Monday, Metamoney's Web 100
showed that nine of the top ten healthcare companies on the web
have chosen ORCL products for their care management needs. Though
healthcare is just one of many Oracle Internet applications, the
news may help fuel a strong recovery from our $60 support level.
This advance, which was accompanied by great volume (57.6m),
helped to push prices above today's 50-dma ($74.18) resistance
level. With a break through the $80 resistance mark, bolstered by
both the 20 and 30-dma's ($79.71 and $79.93), further resistance
will likely come at the 52-week high of $90. Initially, we'll
expect to find support along the 50-dma (previously resistance),
and again at $60. If good daily volume (40.0m or better) can
remain intact, look for potential entries as prices advance
through resistance or give hard bounces off support. Also,
continue to look at market strength as confirmation, prior to
opening new positions. We'll hold positions through the
shareholders meeting of 5/10, unless stopped out. Protect your
profits with trailing stops, based upon your entry point and
nearby support levels.
Picked on April 16th@ $63.52
Change since picked +15.42
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SDLI - SDL Incorporated $160.50 +3.13 (+17.50)
On Sunday, we received the news we had been waiting for. In this
week's edition of Barrons, several fund managers told the
magazine that SDLI is poised to rise this week with expectations
of higher earnings. The news announcement couldn't have come at a
better time for SDLI shares, which also managed to take part in
robust a market rebound. Under these positive conditions and with
the short trigger to earnings, the stock has already realized a
35.5 point from Monday's open. Strong volume has also been
present this week and indicates a good sign that momentum is
picking up ahead of Wednesday's earnings. With continued momentum
to the upside, look to take profits in front of the $180
resistance level, sustained by the 20-dma ($179.62). Still higher
up, look for swift resistance at the 50-dma ($187.15) to present
a more aggressive exit level. Remember not to hesitate taking
profits, as prices may reverse quickly from these levels. The
earnings report is due out after the bell on Wednesday, so look
to exit positions by the close.
Picked on April 13th @ $152.25
Change since picked +8.25
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TFS - Three-Five Systems $83.06 +9.06 (+16.56)
Evidently we were not the only ones who recognized the incredible
relative strength exhibited by this LCD manufacturer last week.
When you are trying to trade for a bounce in the market sometimes
you are best served by picking those stocks that bucked the trend
and held up in the face of selling. We have since been rewarded
with a spectacular rally and we now own a stock that made a new
high; there are not too many tech stocks that did that today.
Monday's sharp selloff gave us an excellent entry point of just
over $66 a share. The subsequent rally confirmed that we were on
the right side of this trade. The new high today of $83 was just
icing on the cake. The possibility of the stock gapping up and
making another new high tomorrow is very good because the stock
was very strong going into the close. We must advise a bit of
caution though. Over the past three weeks we have seen the
failure of several outstanding rallies and the winds of change
blow fast in this market. Protect yourself. Do not let this
winner turn into a loser. At the very least put a stop in just
below today's low of $75.25. The last time TFS made a new high
it dropped precipitously the following day, so be careful. We
will exit this play if a split is announced at the 4/27
shareholders meeting.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.50
Change since picked +16.56
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VRSN - Verisign, Inc. $139.50 +28.75 (+41.70)
Now that's more like it! Verisign, Inc. has been in rally mode
this week along with a lot of others. If you were one of the
brave souls who took a position in VRSN, you should be quite
happy by now. Tomorrow this internet-based trust service company
is scheduled to announce earnings after the bell. The consensus
estimate is for a profit of .02 cents and the whisper number is
.03 cents. Exit this play before the close to avoid any possible
selling that may occur. The gain you are seeing now is the pre-
earnings run. The risk of a post-earnings drop is high. The
volume has been good both Monday and today, above average at 6
million shares. Demand for Verisign's services continued today
with the company penning two new deals to provide their trust
services to webMethods and SAIC ANXeBusiness. Today the stock
opened at its 200-dma at $114.00 and remained strong all day. The
combined boost for the NASDAQ and the upsurge in the NDX (NASDAQ-
100) helps too. Often we suggest that confirmation in the lesser
and greater indexes should be confirmed; today was a good example
of just such a confirmation. Currently, resistance can be found
just overhead at $150.00 and then at the 100-dma at $175.00.
Support now exists back at $110.00, just below the 200-dma. We
will reevaluate this play after earnings and will advise you
accordingly. Plan an exit by the close Wednesday.
Picked on April 13th @ $114.69
Profit/Loss +24.81
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VSTR - Voicestream Wireless $98.81 +3.94 (+8.81)
Not a bad bounce for Voicestream. It seems that the stock's call
for help has been answered. We have seen the most incredible
market comeback in history over the past two days and VSTR was
certainly part of it. Wireless Communications companies are here
to stay and the leaders of this group are poised to continue
coming back. If this comeback keeps rolling, investors will
continue to focus on those companies with the best prospects for
earnings growth. With wireless subscription rates exploding and
exciting new products on the horizon, VSTR certainly fits the
bill. VSTR got a little help in its marketing efforts today when
it was announced that BUYPHONE.com will start a nationwide
marketing and distribution campaign for VSTR's wireless services.
You can not have too much Internet exposure. We got a fantastic
entry on VSTR Monday as the quick selloff took the stock right to
support just above $80. The spike rally off of this support took
the stock straight through the 200-DMA at $91.75 and the stock
settled below $100. VSTR was able to climb the $100 hurdle only
very briefly today before falling back under that critical price
point. OBV recovered nicely over the past two days and the MACD
is still negative but is turning up. Patient investors still may
want to wait for the stock to close above $100 before initiating
a position. The rally back has been fast and furious. This
market could rollover in a heartbeat. The single best piece of
advice when you have a quick gain in a very volatile market is to
ensure that your profit does not turn into a loss. We recommend
that you set your stops accordingly. Today's low should provide
support at $93 and we would not let it drop much below that
price. We will exit this play after a split announcement or
before the early May earnings report, whichever comes first.
Picked on April 16th @ $90.00
Change since picked +8.81
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
TERN - Terayon Communication Systems $75.43 -6.44 (-18.56)
To list this as a play drop is a misnomer. On Sunday we initiated
coverage of TERN with two warnings. The second of which indicated
"not to go near", this stock if it opened Monday below $86.00.
Well, the news of the class action lawsuit did not sit well with
traders and it opened at $80.00. So, to say that this was even a
play would be inaccurate if you followed our warning regarding
the opening price. We will watch for developing opportunities
with TERN and may initiate a play at a later date.
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
ENE - Enron $68.00 +1.25 (-1.75)
We never got any confirmation from this play. We were looking for
market strength to open this position but it never really showed
up. The stock opened lower on Monday and fell below our stops by
midday. Despite the bounce on ENE, we are still dropping this
play because it traded down while the broader markets rallied
which is not good. This play is on the defensive side so
investors may continue to rotate out of ENE and the utility
sector in order to buy technology stocks. If you have open
positions in ENE, set tight stops at $67 and look for an exit on
Wednesday.
Picked on April 13th @ $73.81
Profit/Loss = -9.31 (-13%)
Best Profit = -1.75 (-2%)
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INKT - Inktomi $116.00 +24.00 (+15.19)
Sometimes earnings plays work out and our recent move on INKT
certainly paid some nice dividends for us. Although Monday's
opening price was below anticipated support of $95, the strong
rally that followed was very rewarding. The volatility continued
as the stock could not make up its mind as to which side of $100
it wanted to stay on. If you held the stock and then sold it
right before the close you should have a healthy profit in this
play. It's official; INKT is now a profitable company. INKT
reported quarterly earnings of one penny, ahead of expectations
of a loss of 2 pennies. Although the stock is rallying a bit in
after hours we can be comforted in knowing that we traded our
disciplined plan.
Picked on April 13th @ $110.56
Profit/Loss = +5.44 (+5%)
Best Profit = +9.32 (+8%)
*Original recommendation was to buy the stock at $100.00.
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