NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
EXDS - Exodus Communications $85.56 (-56.07)
Exodus Communications is the premier name in web hosting. The
Company provides Internet system and network management solutions
for enterprises with mission-critical Internet operations. Exodus
operates state-of-the-art Internet Data Centers with
uninterruptible power supply and back-up generators, fire
suppression, raised floors, HVAC, separate cooling zones,
seismically braced racks, around-the-clock operations and high
levels of physical security. EXDS currently hosts 40% of the most
visited web sites in the United States. Shares of EXDS hit an
all-time high of $176.63 on 3/23 but have fallen back to a low of
$82.5 on Friday. The Company announced a 2:1 stock split on 3/3
to be paid in the form of a stock dividend. The tentative payable
date is 6/20, subject to shareholder approval. Shareholders will
vote on the stock split and an increase in authorized shares at
the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders on 6/6. Exodus is
expected to announce earnings on 4/20 after the bell, which
should also provide additional momentum next week. As for the
stock, support is $82, just below Friday's intra-day low.
Stronger support is the 200-dma at $76. Resistance is $95 and
then the 5-dma currently at $104. Use a bounce off of $82 or a
move above $95 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market
sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Plan
exit in front of earnings on 4/20 with possible re-entry closer
to the payable date. This company is considered a market leader
and has corrected near to the 200-dma, making it a better bet in
this environment, however be cautious and use stops, based upon
your risk tolerance! We will stop out just below the 200-dma,
with an exit at $73. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader
market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any
short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $85.56
Change since picked +0.00
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TERN - Terayon Communication Systems $94.00 (-85.50)
100:1…No not a reverse split! That is what the NDX (NASDAQ 100)
and TERN have in common. This one stock and the NDX both finished
the day sitting on there 200-dma. Terayon Communication Systems
is in the business of two-way broadband access, ensuring that
cable operators receive reliable service. We reinitiate coverage
of TERN with the good news of a stock split pay date
announcement. The announcement came after their shareholders
meeting on 4/11. The company will split its stock on 5/8 with
Friday, May 5th being the payable date. We began by comparing
TERN with the NDX (NASDAQ 100) for a good reason. A new split run
play should only be opened with confirmation in both the broader
NASDAQ market and a bounce off the (NDX). TERN briefly pierced
its 200-dma on Friday and closed just above. The stock has been a
classic example of "too far, too fast", giving back all of its
big gains. The company announced earnings last Tuesday, beating
expectations by .02 cents. One possible wrench in the potential
split run came after Friday's close. A class action lawsuit was
filed on behalf of shareholders of TERN from 02/02/2000 to
04/11/2000 alleging that the certain officers, directors and
company insiders made false and misleading statements regarding
company operations and financial conditions. TERN had not yet
commented on the allegations. While the play has incredible
potential, we emphasize the importance to confirm overall market
direction before entering this play. The stock is sitting on
support at its 200-dma. Resistance is up at $123.00. The coming
week may begin ugly, as more selling is the talk on most
commentators. Be patient and wait for the proper indications of a
rally. Look for a broad rally as an indicator accompanied by a
bounce off the 200-dma on the NDX (NASDAQ 100). We will be
watching closely to see how TERN reacts in the new week. Wait
for initial reaction before getting into this play - if the stock
opens below Friday's low of $86, do not go near it! Wait for
consolidation near a support level. Our stop is $86. (Remember
to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new
plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be
considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $94.00
Changed since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $66.00 (-9.50)
"Give me a double"! Probably a familiar request after this week's
bludgeoning on Wall Street. However, while many stocks were
making double-digit losses this week, Advanced Micro Devices
earnings doubled from a year ago. Expectations for the California
semiconductor manufacturer were for as high as .57 cents, but on
Wednesday they rocked analysts and the street with a whopping
$1.15 profit per share. Thursday saw 3x volume in reaction to the
news, but the stock closed down -5.00 in the face of continued
selling across the major indexes. We begin our coverage of AMD in
expectation of a split announcement at the shareholders meeting
scheduled for 4/27. The company will ask shareholders to increase
the number of outstanding shares by 7.25 million. The result will
be 152 million shares outstanding and 257.25 million shares
authorized enough for a 2:1 split. Analysts have been speaking
positively of AMD as well. Recently, Deutche Banc Alex Brown
issued a buy rating with a price target of $125.00 and Prudential
issued a strong buy rating. AMD has held up well this week,
losing less than 9 points. While countless stocks are crashing
through their 100 and 200-dma, AMD closed near its 20-dma. AMD
has not split its stock since 1983 and may now be due in light of
it recently hitting a new high on 4/10. A new play with AMD
should be confirmed by overall market direction with special
emphasis on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the broader markets. If we
get a well-deserved bounce/rally this week, then AMD should bode
well for a new run at its recent high at $79.18. AMD is sitting
just above support at $63.00 and resistance is back up at the new
high. If buyers come back in to the market then AMD should enjoy
a nice run going into their meeting. Confirmation should be in
both upward direction and volume in excess of 7.5 million shares
although AMD tends to breakout on 10 million shares and better.
Exercise caution with this and any new play, as market conditions
are still extremely uncertain. (Remember to confirm strength in
the broader market before initiating new plays. In this
environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-
risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked 0.00
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MXIM - Maxim $50.31 (-20.25)
Maxim Integrated Products designs, develops, and manufactures
linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits. MXIM offers a wide
selection of products including data converters, interface
circuits, microprocessor supervisors, operational amplifiers,
power supplies, multiplexers, switches, battery chargers, and
voltage references. The Company's products are used in
microprocessor-based electronics equipment, including personal
computers and peripherals, test equipment, hand held devices,
wireless communicators, broadband networks, satellite
communications, and robotics. The stock hit an all-time high of
$74.50 on 3/22 but has pulled back to an intra-day low of $49.75
on Friday. Maxim is expected to announce earnings on 4/25 after
the bell and we are looking for a split announcement to come out
with the earnings release. The Company currently has 480 million
shares authorized and 278 million shares outstanding so they
could set a 3:2 split or announce a 2:1 split, pending
shareholder approval. Going forward, there is light support at
$49 with strong support at the 200-dma, now up to $45. Resistance
is now the 100-dma ($55) and then the 5-dma ($58). Look for a
bounce off of support or a push above $55 to initiate new
positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. We recommend an exit in front of earnings on 4/25. Our
stop is at $42.50, just below support at $43. (Remember to
confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new
plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be
considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $50.31
Change since picked +0.00
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ORCL - Oracle Corporation $63.52 (-23.60)
With 93% of dotcom companies using Oracle software, the company
has developed into the world's largest supplier of database
software for information management. With growth in earnings
expected to increase by 44% in 2000 and 38% in 2001, the power of
the Internet is showing its worth to Oracle shares. Currently
trading in split territory, additional shares will need to be
authorized in order to initiate a stock split. To do this,
management will be holding a special shareholder's meeting on
5/10 to vote for the authorization of more shares from 4 to 11
billion. As for the chart, solid support was confirmed at the $60
level by a hard bounce off $60.25 on Friday. This short-term
reversal, which came with good daily volume (54.9m shares), was
also reinforced by the 100-dma ($61.00). Although the $60 mark
looks to be the near term bottom for ORCL, further declines
should find firm support at the half-century mark. Use price
reversals off support to trigger entries, when good daily volume
(40.0m or better) is present. With a recovery in the technology
group, ORCL could run to the 50-dma ($73.45), before finding
initial resistance. Further up, swift resistance should be found
at the $80 mark, bolstered by both the 20 and 30-dma's ($79.96
and 79.83). We feel that an rebound in the technology sector will
likely cause well known companies, who generate earnings, to
rebound the strongest. We believe that ORCL should be one of
these companies. We'll plan on holding through the shareholders
meeting of 5/10, for a split announcement that may follow. Our
stop is at $57 to limit losses. (Remember to confirm strength in
the broader market before initiating new plays. In this
environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-
risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $63.52
Change since picked 0.00
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TFS - Three-Five Systems $66.50 (-3.94)
So what has insulated this LCD manufacturer? We suspect that the
fact that the Company has a solid earnings and revenue stream due
to a fast growing ubiquitous commodity product has helped TFS to
avoid some of the tech wreck. It does not hurt that the stock
also trades on the NYSE. LCD is the visual interface of choice
for all wireless products as well as the majority of office
equipment products. Wireless product growth should be very
strong for years to come and TFS stands to benefit. The next
generation of LCD products could be dominated by a new product
that TFS is developing, LCD on silicon microdisplays. The stock
price seems a bit low priced to be a legitimate split candidate.
However, the Company did split its share 4:3 back in December
with the stock only trading at $47 and change. There is a
shareholder's meeting on April 27th where a vote will be taken to
increase the number of authorized shares to 60 million from 15
million. This action will help ensure that the Company will be
able to enact more splits in the future. Following an earnings
report last week that saw the Company post a $0.27 versus a loss
a year ago, Needham & Co raised their rating to a Strong Buy from
a Buy and ING Barings raised their rating to a Strong Buy from a
Buy. The very strong earnings beat First Call estimates by $0.12.
TFS is a very strong relative strength play for us. The MACD and
OBV are both strongly positive despite the well publicized
selling of everything technologically oriented. If shareholders
do not want to sell, then the path of least resistance could be
up, as long as this market can finally stabilize. A weak market
could give us an opportunity to pick up the stock in the low
$60's near support. We strongly suggest that you wait for a
bounce before buying. A move below $62 could knock the stock
down to the next support level of $54. A close above $70 would
be a solid indication that the stock is ready to challenge for a
new high above $81.75. Although individual stock selection is
important, you need to be aware of the overall market condition
before initiating a play. Make sure the major tech Index, the
NDX and the Dow hold Friday's lows before going long anything.
We will exit this play if a split is announced. As a long play
in this environment, consider it high-risk.
Picked on April 16th @ $66.50
Change since picked 0.00
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VSTR - Voicestream Wireless $90.00 (-36.00)
Voicestream has become a virtual household name due to a
widespread and popular advertising campaign, as well as very
competitive and groundbreaking pricing for its digital wireless
service. Their exploding customer base has helped to contribute
to a healthy stock price as wireless subscription rates continue
to rise. Last week it was reported that wireless subscriber
growth in the United States jumped 24.3% to 86 million customers
last year, according to an industry trade group. When we last
visited VSTR in early March we thought there was a good
opportunity that the Company would announce a split. Since it
did not happen we think the odds that the Company will split this
time around are very good as long as the stock can rally back
into the $100's. Earnings, always a good time to announce a
split, are not until early May, so we may have some time for this
play to develop. VSTR has enough authorized shares to enact a
2:1 or 3:1 split. Although a bit battered and bruised, the stock
of Voicestream has been showing a bit of resiliency by bouncing
off of newly developed support in the low 80's, on an attempt to
recover to the 200-dma now at $91.25. We recommend trying to
pick this stock up if it can bounce of this level again in the
advent of continued selling in the overall market. If the bounce
does not hold, you should stop yourself out at $79, a little bit
below last week's low. You also need to be wary of the overall
market. We saw the NDX (the NASDAQ 100 Index) bounce on Friday
off of the 200 DMA at 3141. We would avoid adding any plays if
the NDX drops below this critical number. A more cautious
investor may prefer to wait for the stock to close above
resistance of $100 before initiating a longer term position. We
will be exiting this position after any split announcement or
before the next earnings announcement due in early May. (Remember
to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new
plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be
considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 16th @ $90.00
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
None
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
ENE - Enron $69.75 (-1.75)
Enron Corporation is a global electricity, natural gas and
communications company. The Company engages in the exploration
and production of natural gas and crude oil, natural gas
transportation, electricity generation and the development and
operation of power plants, pipelines and other energy related
assets. On Friday, shares of ENE opened lower and continued
falling to an intra-day low of $66 before bouncing back late in
the session. We did not get any confirmation. Instead, we got
consolidation as the rest of the market tanked. The Company has
scheduled its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2 and they already
have enough shares for a 3:2 split with 715.6 million shares
outstanding and 1.2 billion authorized. We are looking for a 3:2
split out of the shareholders meeting, or a 2:1 split if
investors decide to authorize more shares. However, they could
announce a split at any time. For now, we are still waiting for a
positive market before we open new positions on ENE. Support has
come in at Friday's low of $66 with stronger support at $62.
Resistance is the 5-dma at $71 and then $74. Initiate new plays
on a bounce off of $66 or a move above $71. Open new plays on
heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit in
the session following a split announcement or shortly after the
Annual Shareholder Meeting. In this market, no stock is immune to
a selloff, so we are placing a stop at $64.50, just below support
at $65. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market
before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term
long play should be considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 13th @ $73.81
Change since picked -4.06
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INKT - Inktomi $100.81 (-80.06)
With our buy target at the round number of $100 executed during
Friday's carnage, we may be off to the races on this potential
bounce play. In our last writing, we mentioned that this is an
extremely aggressive play. We are attempting to capture a very
quick bounce ahead of Tuesday's earnings. We will definitely
drop this play before the announcement after the close. Although
we always drop plays before major scheduled releases (split
payable dates and earnings) it is particularly important that you
exit this position before the news in light of what happened
after Yahoo! released their blowout quarter. Despite very good
numbers, Internet leader Yahoo! was punished in a severe sell-
the-news drop. It would take some pretty huge numbers to make
INKT rally after their announcement. The stock market is
certainly going to be a huge topic of conversation this weekend.
If people come out buying first thing Monday morning, look for
INKT to be one of the early winners. A bounce of 10 points or
more would not be out of the question. If the market rolls over
and the NDX turns negative after 10:00 AM EST, we suggest exiting
INKT immediately. We could get another wave of selling. If the
market gaps down on the open, look to try and get long on bounces
off of support at $95. If things really get bad, you may be able
to try and trade a bounce off of long term support at $78. As
for us, we'll be forced to exit on a stop just below the 200-dma,
now at $91. Our stop is $89. Again, please remember to exit
this position before the close on Tuesday. (Remember to confirm
strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In
this environment, any short-term long play should be considered
high-risk.)
Picked on April 13th @ $110.56
Change since picked -9.75
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SDLI - SDL Incorporated $143.00 (-40.00)
Capturing a unique corner of the fiber optics market, SDLI has
incorporated DWDM technology to improve the speed and efficiency
of its fiber optic products. DWDM, which stands for Dense
Wavelength Division Multiplexing, allows separate lightwaves to
be matched with individual fiber strands for greater amounts of
data transfer. This area of fiber optics, which is estimated to
grow by 100% over the next five years, is being spurred by
Internet growth. As for this week's stock performance, SDLI
shares showed some strength on Friday, despite the continued
descent of many technology stocks. Rising off a strong bounce
from its daily lows, the run-up was confirmed by good intra-day
volume (1.0m shares), and should present a support level along
the $120 mark. Our stop is at $118, since the volatility on this
thing is huge. Secondary support will likely be provided along
the century mark, given a resumption of selling pressure. As for
resistance, the buck fifty mark, bolstered by the 5-dma ($150.18)
should offer some initial opposition. Entries can be initiated by
price reversals off support or advances through resistance, when
good volume and market strength are confirmed. Continue to plan
your exits in front of the earnings announcement of 4/19 (After
the market). (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market
before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term
long play should be considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 13th @ $152.25
Change since picked -9.25
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VRSN - Verisign, Inc. $97.80 (-78.70)
Where were you on December 1, 1999? I can tell you where
Verisign, Inc. was, right where it is right now. It was from this
point in December that Verisign, Inc., the Internet-based trust
Service Company began its 159-point ascent. Undoubtedly, the
Internet was abuzz Friday with investors watching their
investments, executing trades, or engaging in chat sessions with
other market voyeurs. Verisign is in the business of making sure
those transmissions are sent across the cyber highway with
security. We began coverage of VRSN on Thursday with the
expectation of grabbing some quick profits if the stock bounced
off $100.00. The expected bounce came within minutes of the open
and by 10:35 (EST) the stock had run up to $116.00. If you read
our play hopefully you grabbed some profits and ran because that
was the best profit offered all day. Mid-day offered one more
bounce but the upside was limited to about 9 points. Then the
selling kicked it with the rest of the markets and the stock
retreated to a low of $91.00 (12/99 price) before closing at
$97.78. Volume again was more than double at 7.8 million shares.
Earnings are Wednesday after the close so this is still a very
short-term play. Market momentum is critical with this play. Any
new positions should only be accompanied by a bounce in the
NASDAQ and the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index), which closed right on its
200-dma Friday. Exit this play before the close on 4/19. Place a
hard stop at $90. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader
market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any
short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)
Picked on April 13th @ $114.69
Change since picked -16.89
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
KSS - Kohl's Corporation $91.62 (-14.57)
Economic reports and interest rate fears got the best of Kohl's
this week. The CPI came in higher-than-expected, sending
retailers into a tailspin. This news and a negative market was
too much for KSS as it fell $9.44 on heavy volume. Hopefully, you
had stops in place and got out before things got out of hand. Due
to the recent developments and the momentum reversal in the
retail sector, we have decided to drop this stock tonight rather
than fight the market and the Fed. If you are still in KSS, set
tight stops under $91 and look to exit on strength on Monday.
Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Profit/Loss = -0.56 (-1%) (Stopped out at $99.00)
Best Profit = +10.00 (+10%)
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LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $92.17 (-20.96)
The bullish news item that saw LHSP join forces with Ford Motor
Co's Visteon unit was not enough to keep LHSP above support
during the "sell everything!" drop on Friday. Our stop should
have been triggered at $98 when LHSP dropped below $100. If LHSP
can stabilize its losses and build some support back above $100,
do not be surprised if we revisit this play. LHSP is a very good
company that should be able to survive this correction and head
higher when the fallout clears.
Picked on April 11th @ $104.25
Profit/Loss = -6.25 (-6%) (Stopped out Friday @ $98.00)
Best Profit = +5.56 (+5%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
INTC - Intel Corporation $110.50 (-26.31)
More bloodletting in technology stocks Friday sent Intel shares
charging through our stop level of $114. This sell-off, which was
accompanied by strong volume (46.4m shares), marked a weeklong
decline for the stock and represented a 20% loss from Monday's
opening price. Given the magnitude of this decline, and the gap
below the 50-dma on Friday, we believe the potential for further
near-term declines in the stock is likely. Based on this, we are
dropping the stock for now. However, from our research we feel
that Intel shares will be poised for future gains throughout the
remainder of the year. We'll keep you posted on these upcoming
plays as they develop.
Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Profit/Loss = -15.88 (-12%) (Stopped out Friday @ $114.00)
Best Profit = +15.51 (+12%)
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LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $102.31 (-17.19)
Aided by a 5-day decline in the NASDAQ and tech stocks on the
NYSE board as well, Lexmark shares joined in the carnage, losing
over 17 points on the week. An opening gap down Friday set the
stage for early morning selling, which pushed prices through our
stop of $97.50. Though a rebound in technology stocks will remain
a possibility, it was necessary for us to place a stop for intra-
day price moves below $97.50 as a cautionary step to further
declines. It is our belief that LXK remains a solid growth
company for the future, as such we'll keep you informed of
impending plays as they occur.
Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Profit/Loss = -8.75 (-8%) (Stopped out Friday @ $97.50)
Best Profit = +32.81 (+31%)
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SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. $86.56 (-40.26)
Despite being the feature article in Investors Business Daily
today, in the Leaders & Success section; we must drop SEBL as it
hit our stop at $95.00. We had hoped that SEBL would hold at the
100-dma, but the across-the-board selling on both the INDU and
the NASDQ, were way too much for almost any stock today. Perhaps
we can find a bottom next week and see some good numbers from
SEBL on Wednesday, when they announce earnings. We will keep an
eye on SEBL and advise you of any opportunities that may develop
with regard to a split run.
Picked on April 11th @ $113.00
Profit/Loss = -18.00 (-16%) (Stopped out Friday @ $95.00)
Best Profit = +6.63 (+6%)
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