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Play Updates
Sunday, April 16, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

EXDS - Exodus Communications $85.56 (-56.07)

Exodus Communications is the premier name in web hosting. The Company provides Internet system and network management solutions for enterprises with mission-critical Internet operations. Exodus operates state-of-the-art Internet Data Centers with uninterruptible power supply and back-up generators, fire suppression, raised floors, HVAC, separate cooling zones, seismically braced racks, around-the-clock operations and high levels of physical security. EXDS currently hosts 40% of the most visited web sites in the United States. Shares of EXDS hit an all-time high of $176.63 on 3/23 but have fallen back to a low of $82.5 on Friday. The Company announced a 2:1 stock split on 3/3 to be paid in the form of a stock dividend. The tentative payable date is 6/20, subject to shareholder approval. Shareholders will vote on the stock split and an increase in authorized shares at the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders on 6/6. Exodus is expected to announce earnings on 4/20 after the bell, which should also provide additional momentum next week. As for the stock, support is $82, just below Friday's intra-day low. Stronger support is the 200-dma at $76. Resistance is $95 and then the 5-dma currently at $104. Use a bounce off of $82 or a move above $95 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Plan exit in front of earnings on 4/20 with possible re-entry closer to the payable date. This company is considered a market leader and has corrected near to the 200-dma, making it a better bet in this environment, however be cautious and use stops, based upon your risk tolerance! We will stop out just below the 200-dma, with an exit at $73. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $85.56
Change since picked +0.00



TERN - Terayon Communication Systems $94.00 (-85.50)

100:1…No not a reverse split! That is what the NDX (NASDAQ 100) and TERN have in common. This one stock and the NDX both finished the day sitting on there 200-dma. Terayon Communication Systems is in the business of two-way broadband access, ensuring that cable operators receive reliable service. We reinitiate coverage of TERN with the good news of a stock split pay date announcement. The announcement came after their shareholders meeting on 4/11. The company will split its stock on 5/8 with Friday, May 5th being the payable date. We began by comparing TERN with the NDX (NASDAQ 100) for a good reason. A new split run play should only be opened with confirmation in both the broader NASDAQ market and a bounce off the (NDX). TERN briefly pierced its 200-dma on Friday and closed just above. The stock has been a classic example of "too far, too fast", giving back all of its big gains. The company announced earnings last Tuesday, beating expectations by .02 cents. One possible wrench in the potential split run came after Friday's close. A class action lawsuit was filed on behalf of shareholders of TERN from 02/02/2000 to 04/11/2000 alleging that the certain officers, directors and company insiders made false and misleading statements regarding company operations and financial conditions. TERN had not yet commented on the allegations. While the play has incredible potential, we emphasize the importance to confirm overall market direction before entering this play. The stock is sitting on support at its 200-dma. Resistance is up at $123.00. The coming week may begin ugly, as more selling is the talk on most commentators. Be patient and wait for the proper indications of a rally. Look for a broad rally as an indicator accompanied by a bounce off the 200-dma on the NDX (NASDAQ 100). We will be watching closely to see how TERN reacts in the new week. Wait for initial reaction before getting into this play - if the stock opens below Friday's low of $86, do not go near it! Wait for consolidation near a support level. Our stop is $86. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $94.00
Changed since picked 0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $66.00 (-9.50)

"Give me a double"! Probably a familiar request after this week's bludgeoning on Wall Street. However, while many stocks were making double-digit losses this week, Advanced Micro Devices earnings doubled from a year ago. Expectations for the California semiconductor manufacturer were for as high as .57 cents, but on Wednesday they rocked analysts and the street with a whopping $1.15 profit per share. Thursday saw 3x volume in reaction to the news, but the stock closed down -5.00 in the face of continued selling across the major indexes. We begin our coverage of AMD in expectation of a split announcement at the shareholders meeting scheduled for 4/27. The company will ask shareholders to increase the number of outstanding shares by 7.25 million. The result will be 152 million shares outstanding and 257.25 million shares authorized enough for a 2:1 split. Analysts have been speaking positively of AMD as well. Recently, Deutche Banc Alex Brown issued a buy rating with a price target of $125.00 and Prudential issued a strong buy rating. AMD has held up well this week, losing less than 9 points. While countless stocks are crashing through their 100 and 200-dma, AMD closed near its 20-dma. AMD has not split its stock since 1983 and may now be due in light of it recently hitting a new high on 4/10. A new play with AMD should be confirmed by overall market direction with special emphasis on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the broader markets. If we get a well-deserved bounce/rally this week, then AMD should bode well for a new run at its recent high at $79.18. AMD is sitting just above support at $63.00 and resistance is back up at the new high. If buyers come back in to the market then AMD should enjoy a nice run going into their meeting. Confirmation should be in both upward direction and volume in excess of 7.5 million shares although AMD tends to breakout on 10 million shares and better. Exercise caution with this and any new play, as market conditions are still extremely uncertain. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high- risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $66.00
Change since picked 0.00



MXIM - Maxim $50.31 (-20.25)

Maxim Integrated Products designs, develops, and manufactures linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits. MXIM offers a wide selection of products including data converters, interface circuits, microprocessor supervisors, operational amplifiers, power supplies, multiplexers, switches, battery chargers, and voltage references. The Company's products are used in microprocessor-based electronics equipment, including personal computers and peripherals, test equipment, hand held devices, wireless communicators, broadband networks, satellite communications, and robotics. The stock hit an all-time high of $74.50 on 3/22 but has pulled back to an intra-day low of $49.75 on Friday. Maxim is expected to announce earnings on 4/25 after the bell and we are looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release. The Company currently has 480 million shares authorized and 278 million shares outstanding so they could set a 3:2 split or announce a 2:1 split, pending shareholder approval. Going forward, there is light support at $49 with strong support at the 200-dma, now up to $45. Resistance is now the 100-dma ($55) and then the 5-dma ($58). Look for a bounce off of support or a push above $55 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit in front of earnings on 4/25. Our stop is at $42.50, just below support at $43. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $50.31
Change since picked +0.00



ORCL - Oracle Corporation $63.52 (-23.60)

With 93% of dotcom companies using Oracle software, the company has developed into the world's largest supplier of database software for information management. With growth in earnings expected to increase by 44% in 2000 and 38% in 2001, the power of the Internet is showing its worth to Oracle shares. Currently trading in split territory, additional shares will need to be authorized in order to initiate a stock split. To do this, management will be holding a special shareholder's meeting on 5/10 to vote for the authorization of more shares from 4 to 11 billion. As for the chart, solid support was confirmed at the $60 level by a hard bounce off $60.25 on Friday. This short-term reversal, which came with good daily volume (54.9m shares), was also reinforced by the 100-dma ($61.00). Although the $60 mark looks to be the near term bottom for ORCL, further declines should find firm support at the half-century mark. Use price reversals off support to trigger entries, when good daily volume (40.0m or better) is present. With a recovery in the technology group, ORCL could run to the 50-dma ($73.45), before finding initial resistance. Further up, swift resistance should be found at the $80 mark, bolstered by both the 20 and 30-dma's ($79.96 and 79.83). We feel that an rebound in the technology sector will likely cause well known companies, who generate earnings, to rebound the strongest. We believe that ORCL should be one of these companies. We'll plan on holding through the shareholders meeting of 5/10, for a split announcement that may follow. Our stop is at $57 to limit losses. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high- risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $63.52
Change since picked 0.00



TFS - Three-Five Systems $66.50 (-3.94)

So what has insulated this LCD manufacturer? We suspect that the fact that the Company has a solid earnings and revenue stream due to a fast growing ubiquitous commodity product has helped TFS to avoid some of the tech wreck. It does not hurt that the stock also trades on the NYSE. LCD is the visual interface of choice for all wireless products as well as the majority of office equipment products. Wireless product growth should be very strong for years to come and TFS stands to benefit. The next generation of LCD products could be dominated by a new product that TFS is developing, LCD on silicon microdisplays. The stock price seems a bit low priced to be a legitimate split candidate. However, the Company did split its share 4:3 back in December with the stock only trading at $47 and change. There is a shareholder's meeting on April 27th where a vote will be taken to increase the number of authorized shares to 60 million from 15 million. This action will help ensure that the Company will be able to enact more splits in the future. Following an earnings report last week that saw the Company post a $0.27 versus a loss a year ago, Needham & Co raised their rating to a Strong Buy from a Buy and ING Barings raised their rating to a Strong Buy from a Buy. The very strong earnings beat First Call estimates by $0.12. TFS is a very strong relative strength play for us. The MACD and OBV are both strongly positive despite the well publicized selling of everything technologically oriented. If shareholders do not want to sell, then the path of least resistance could be up, as long as this market can finally stabilize. A weak market could give us an opportunity to pick up the stock in the low $60's near support. We strongly suggest that you wait for a bounce before buying. A move below $62 could knock the stock down to the next support level of $54. A close above $70 would be a solid indication that the stock is ready to challenge for a new high above $81.75. Although individual stock selection is important, you need to be aware of the overall market condition before initiating a play. Make sure the major tech Index, the NDX and the Dow hold Friday's lows before going long anything. We will exit this play if a split is announced. As a long play in this environment, consider it high-risk.



Picked on April 16th @ $66.50
Change since picked 0.00



VSTR - Voicestream Wireless $90.00 (-36.00)

Voicestream has become a virtual household name due to a widespread and popular advertising campaign, as well as very competitive and groundbreaking pricing for its digital wireless service. Their exploding customer base has helped to contribute to a healthy stock price as wireless subscription rates continue to rise. Last week it was reported that wireless subscriber growth in the United States jumped 24.3% to 86 million customers last year, according to an industry trade group. When we last visited VSTR in early March we thought there was a good opportunity that the Company would announce a split. Since it did not happen we think the odds that the Company will split this time around are very good as long as the stock can rally back into the $100's. Earnings, always a good time to announce a split, are not until early May, so we may have some time for this play to develop. VSTR has enough authorized shares to enact a 2:1 or 3:1 split. Although a bit battered and bruised, the stock of Voicestream has been showing a bit of resiliency by bouncing off of newly developed support in the low 80's, on an attempt to recover to the 200-dma now at $91.25. We recommend trying to pick this stock up if it can bounce of this level again in the advent of continued selling in the overall market. If the bounce does not hold, you should stop yourself out at $79, a little bit below last week's low. You also need to be wary of the overall market. We saw the NDX (the NASDAQ 100 Index) bounce on Friday off of the 200 DMA at 3141. We would avoid adding any plays if the NDX drops below this critical number. A more cautious investor may prefer to wait for the stock to close above resistance of $100 before initiating a longer term position. We will be exiting this position after any split announcement or before the next earnings announcement due in early May. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 16th @ $90.00
Change since picked 0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

None

SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

ENE - Enron $69.75 (-1.75)

Enron Corporation is a global electricity, natural gas and communications company. The Company engages in the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil, natural gas transportation, electricity generation and the development and operation of power plants, pipelines and other energy related assets. On Friday, shares of ENE opened lower and continued falling to an intra-day low of $66 before bouncing back late in the session. We did not get any confirmation. Instead, we got consolidation as the rest of the market tanked. The Company has scheduled its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2 and they already have enough shares for a 3:2 split with 715.6 million shares outstanding and 1.2 billion authorized. We are looking for a 3:2 split out of the shareholders meeting, or a 2:1 split if investors decide to authorize more shares. However, they could announce a split at any time. For now, we are still waiting for a positive market before we open new positions on ENE. Support has come in at Friday's low of $66 with stronger support at $62. Resistance is the 5-dma at $71 and then $74. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $66 or a move above $71. Open new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit in the session following a split announcement or shortly after the Annual Shareholder Meeting. In this market, no stock is immune to a selloff, so we are placing a stop at $64.50, just below support at $65. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 13th @ $73.81 
Change since picked -4.06



INKT - Inktomi $100.81 (-80.06)

With our buy target at the round number of $100 executed during Friday's carnage, we may be off to the races on this potential bounce play. In our last writing, we mentioned that this is an extremely aggressive play. We are attempting to capture a very quick bounce ahead of Tuesday's earnings. We will definitely drop this play before the announcement after the close. Although we always drop plays before major scheduled releases (split payable dates and earnings) it is particularly important that you exit this position before the news in light of what happened after Yahoo! released their blowout quarter. Despite very good numbers, Internet leader Yahoo! was punished in a severe sell- the-news drop. It would take some pretty huge numbers to make INKT rally after their announcement. The stock market is certainly going to be a huge topic of conversation this weekend. If people come out buying first thing Monday morning, look for INKT to be one of the early winners. A bounce of 10 points or more would not be out of the question. If the market rolls over and the NDX turns negative after 10:00 AM EST, we suggest exiting INKT immediately. We could get another wave of selling. If the market gaps down on the open, look to try and get long on bounces off of support at $95. If things really get bad, you may be able to try and trade a bounce off of long term support at $78. As for us, we'll be forced to exit on a stop just below the 200-dma, now at $91. Our stop is $89. Again, please remember to exit this position before the close on Tuesday. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 13th @ $110.56
Change since picked -9.75



SDLI - SDL Incorporated $143.00 (-40.00)

Capturing a unique corner of the fiber optics market, SDLI has incorporated DWDM technology to improve the speed and efficiency of its fiber optic products. DWDM, which stands for Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing, allows separate lightwaves to be matched with individual fiber strands for greater amounts of data transfer. This area of fiber optics, which is estimated to grow by 100% over the next five years, is being spurred by Internet growth. As for this week's stock performance, SDLI shares showed some strength on Friday, despite the continued descent of many technology stocks. Rising off a strong bounce from its daily lows, the run-up was confirmed by good intra-day volume (1.0m shares), and should present a support level along the $120 mark. Our stop is at $118, since the volatility on this thing is huge. Secondary support will likely be provided along the century mark, given a resumption of selling pressure. As for resistance, the buck fifty mark, bolstered by the 5-dma ($150.18) should offer some initial opposition. Entries can be initiated by price reversals off support or advances through resistance, when good volume and market strength are confirmed. Continue to plan your exits in front of the earnings announcement of 4/19 (After the market). (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 13th @ $152.25
Change since picked -9.25



VRSN - Verisign, Inc. $97.80 (-78.70)

Where were you on December 1, 1999? I can tell you where Verisign, Inc. was, right where it is right now. It was from this point in December that Verisign, Inc., the Internet-based trust Service Company began its 159-point ascent. Undoubtedly, the Internet was abuzz Friday with investors watching their investments, executing trades, or engaging in chat sessions with other market voyeurs. Verisign is in the business of making sure those transmissions are sent across the cyber highway with security. We began coverage of VRSN on Thursday with the expectation of grabbing some quick profits if the stock bounced off $100.00. The expected bounce came within minutes of the open and by 10:35 (EST) the stock had run up to $116.00. If you read our play hopefully you grabbed some profits and ran because that was the best profit offered all day. Mid-day offered one more bounce but the upside was limited to about 9 points. Then the selling kicked it with the rest of the markets and the stock retreated to a low of $91.00 (12/99 price) before closing at $97.78. Volume again was more than double at 7.8 million shares. Earnings are Wednesday after the close so this is still a very short-term play. Market momentum is critical with this play. Any new positions should only be accompanied by a bounce in the NASDAQ and the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index), which closed right on its 200-dma Friday. Exit this play before the close on 4/19. Place a hard stop at $90. (Remember to confirm strength in the broader market before initiating new plays. In this environment, any short-term long play should be considered high-risk.)



Picked on April 13th @ $114.69
Change since picked -16.89


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

KSS - Kohl's Corporation $91.62 (-14.57)

Economic reports and interest rate fears got the best of Kohl's this week. The CPI came in higher-than-expected, sending retailers into a tailspin. This news and a negative market was too much for KSS as it fell $9.44 on heavy volume. Hopefully, you had stops in place and got out before things got out of hand. Due to the recent developments and the momentum reversal in the retail sector, we have decided to drop this stock tonight rather than fight the market and the Fed. If you are still in KSS, set tight stops under $91 and look to exit on strength on Monday.



Picked on March 30th @ $99.56

Profit/Loss = -0.56 (-1%) (Stopped out at $99.00)
Best Profit = +10.00 (+10%)



LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $92.17 (-20.96)

The bullish news item that saw LHSP join forces with Ford Motor Co's Visteon unit was not enough to keep LHSP above support during the "sell everything!" drop on Friday. Our stop should have been triggered at $98 when LHSP dropped below $100. If LHSP can stabilize its losses and build some support back above $100, do not be surprised if we revisit this play. LHSP is a very good company that should be able to survive this correction and head higher when the fallout clears.



Picked on April 11th @ $104.25

Profit/Loss = -6.25 (-6%) (Stopped out Friday @ $98.00)
Best Profit = +5.56 (+5%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

INTC - Intel Corporation $110.50 (-26.31)

More bloodletting in technology stocks Friday sent Intel shares charging through our stop level of $114. This sell-off, which was accompanied by strong volume (46.4m shares), marked a weeklong decline for the stock and represented a 20% loss from Monday's opening price. Given the magnitude of this decline, and the gap below the 50-dma on Friday, we believe the potential for further near-term declines in the stock is likely. Based on this, we are dropping the stock for now. However, from our research we feel that Intel shares will be poised for future gains throughout the remainder of the year. We'll keep you posted on these upcoming plays as they develop.



Picked on March 19th @ $129.88

Profit/Loss = -15.88 (-12%) (Stopped out Friday @ $114.00)
Best Profit = +15.51 (+12%)



LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $102.31 (-17.19)

Aided by a 5-day decline in the NASDAQ and tech stocks on the NYSE board as well, Lexmark shares joined in the carnage, losing over 17 points on the week. An opening gap down Friday set the stage for early morning selling, which pushed prices through our stop of $97.50. Though a rebound in technology stocks will remain a possibility, it was necessary for us to place a stop for intra- day price moves below $97.50 as a cautionary step to further declines. It is our belief that LXK remains a solid growth company for the future, as such we'll keep you informed of impending plays as they occur.



Picked on April 4th @ $106.25

Profit/Loss = -8.75 (-8%) (Stopped out Friday @ $97.50)
Best Profit = +32.81 (+31%)



SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. $86.56 (-40.26)

Despite being the feature article in Investors Business Daily today, in the Leaders & Success section; we must drop SEBL as it hit our stop at $95.00. We had hoped that SEBL would hold at the 100-dma, but the across-the-board selling on both the INDU and the NASDQ, were way too much for almost any stock today. Perhaps we can find a bottom next week and see some good numbers from SEBL on Wednesday, when they announce earnings. We will keep an eye on SEBL and advise you of any opportunities that may develop with regard to a split run.



Picked on April 11th @ $113.00

Profit/Loss = -18.00 (-16%) (Stopped out Friday @ $95.00)
Best Profit = +6.63 (+6%)


 


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