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Play Updates
Thursday, April 13, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

None

NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

ENE - Enron $73.81 +2.69 (+2.31)

Enron Corporation is a leading electricity, natural gas, and communications company. The Company is engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil, natural gas transportation; electricity generation; and the development and operation of power plants, pipelines and other energy related assets. ENE is also developing an intelligent network platform to facilitate online business. For 4 years running, Fortune magazine named Enron Corp. the "Most Innovative Company in America." This stock is a solid utility play with good fundamentals with a bit of B2B on the side. One major difference between Enron and other utility stocks is the 72% revenue growth in the first quarter, just announced on 4/12. Most of the revenue growth came from its wholesale energy division. With earnings out of the way, and good momentum in the utility sector, we believe that ENE may be heading for a split. They have an Annual Shareholder Meeting on 5/2 and they already have enough shares for a 3:2 split with 715.6 million shares outstanding and 1.2 Billion authorized. They could announce a split at any time, since the stock is trading at previous split price levels. If the announcement is delayed, we are looking for a 3:2 split out of the shareholders meeting, or a 2:1 split if investors decide to authorize more shares. On the technical side, initial support is the 5-dma at $71 with stronger support at the 10-dma at $70. Resistance is $75 and then $78. ENE has held up during recent market weakness and we are looking for confirmation before we jump in. Wait for the rest of the market to come back and a continuation of momentum in ENE before entering. A bounce off of $70 may be a good entry point.


Picked on April 13th @ $73.81 
Change since picked 0.00



INKT - Inktomi $110.56 -12.44 (-70.32)

We were stopped out of this play on Wednesday, but the continued selling in the shares of INKT have taken the stock down to attractive levels were we can start nibbling on some shares in the hopes of a comeback rally. Despite the recent attack on all the Internet stocks, we still believe that INKT has a successful business model that should help the stock recover. INKT has a powerful search engine that many other Internet companies depend upon. E-commerce is not going away, and INKT has many software tools that enable businesses to realize their goals of increasing their e-commerce capabilities. With earnings coming out on Tuesday (after the market), this will be a very quick and aggressive bounce play for us. We expect INKT to gap down tomorrow and hopefully bounce at the $100 level. The market sold off into the close and that's why we expect a follow through to the downside. If the CPI comes out benignly and the tech traders focus on Sun Microsystems's positive earnings report, we may not have that bad of a drop. Either way, do not jump into INKT right away. Wait for a confirmation of a bounce. This very risky 3- day play is definitely not for everybody. Please make sure that this kind of trading fits your risk profile before entering a position in INKT. If the stock starts to rally we expect to find resistance at yesterday's low of $120.


Picked on April 13th @ $110.56
Change since picked 0.00



SDLI - SDL Incorporated $152.25 +4.50 (-30.75)

Over the past few years, the tremendous growth of the Internet has created an increasingly more complex set of data transmission requirements for standard phone lines. To deal with this change in infrastructure, service providers are switching to optical technologies from electrical, in order to improve bandwidth. SDLI stands ready to provide fiber-optic related products that assist in this infrastructure transformation. With revenues expected to climb 90% in 2000, can we doubt the level of interest this physical infrastructure change is gathering? Shares have outperformed the market the last few years and have again found themselves near previous split levels. Currently, the company has enough shares to authorize a split. An earnings announcement this Wednesday (4/19), promises to generate excitement as traders may be expecting a possible announcement. As for recent stock performance, shares have declined from last month's 52-week high and now find themselves in a 3-day consolidation range ($140- $160). Look for support to at the buck fifty mark and just lower at the $145 mark, bolstered by the 100-dma ($145.46). Primary resistance will likely be encountered at the $180 level, reinforced by the 50-dma ($187.25). If prices penetrate this level, then look for more swift resistance to be found at the double century mark ($200). Before making purchases, we expect the Nasdaq to test 3500-3550 in the morning, which should pull SDLI shares lower to our support levels. Look for a sharp bounce off these levels ($145 and $150) as confirmation, prior to opening positions. This play has a fair level of risk and is not advised for conservative traders. Look to exit the stock ahead of the earnings announcement, per our normal policy.


Picked on April 13th @ $152.25
Change since picked 0.00



VRSN - Verisign, Inc. $114.69 -18.44 (-61.81)

"Is it safe"? A line uttered by the evil Szell, played by Sir Laurence Olivier in the movie, Marathon Man. A good question today as the Internet becomes the dominant means of communication in the new millennium. Verisign provides Internet-based trust services needed by Web sites; individuals and enterprises to conduct secured electronic communication over the Internet, Intranet and Extranets. We reinitiate coverage of VRSN as purely a short-term high-risk play. The company is due to report earnings on Wednesday 4/19 after the close and may announce a split at that time. Technically, VRSN now sits on the 200-dma after today's sell-off, which came on twice the normal volume with 7.07 million shares traded. Here is the scenario we are looking for with VRSN: We are expecting that Friday the NASDAQ will test the 3500 - 3550 level and then snap back from there. Wait for confirmation of this and expect VRSN to test $100.00. If this happens and the snap back/relief rally occurs, then the bounce off $100.00 would be a great entry point. Keep in mind that this play will only last for a few days at best and is risky and not for everyone. The company currently has 102.5 million shares outstanding and 200 million authorized. Not quite enough for a 2:1 but nothing a vote by shareholders can't cure. In early March, VRSN announced it would be acquiring Network Solutions, Inc. (NSOL) for 17 Billion in stock. Today (NSOL) announced it now has more than 10 million paid subscribers, second only to the America Online (AOL). Last year VRSN's revenues rose 93% and net income more than doubled to $122.1 million. Resistance is up at $153.00 and then as VRSN hits it head on the 100-dma at about $170. However, if you can get a 53-point run before earnings, you might take the suggestion of The Steve Miller Band and "take the money and run"!


Picked on April 13th @ $114.68
Change since picked 0.00



SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

KSS - Kohl's Corporation $101.06 -6.00 (-5.13)

Kohl's Corporation was under pressure due to a better-than- expected retail sales report Thursday. The report was considered inflationary, which translates into an interest rate increase in order to slow the economy. The stock fell below its 5-dma support level but it did manage to stay above the century mark on average volume. We are now just 6 trading days away from the 2:1 split, payable on 4/24, so there is still some time to get in. Going forward, support has dropped down to $100, bolstered by the 20- dma just under $100. Set stops under $99 to limit losses. Resistance is now $106 with heavy resistance at $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $106 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on strong volume, only in a rising market. Exit no later than 4/20.


Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +1.50



LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $105.62 +6.00 (-7.51)

LHSP is one of the very few technology names that has been able to hold its value during the torrential selling. The good news items of the past few days have been largely ignored for most stocks but we suspect that LHSP's announcement on Tuesday was one of the major catalysts for LHSP's relative strength. LHSP is teaming up with Ford Motor's Visteon parts unit to develop the next generation of voice recognition technologies for the automobile. It is the goal of the partnership to develop the capability for drivers to speak on a phone, set the cruise control, adjust the climate control and operate the stereo all through voice commands. The partnership also intends to make it possible for drivers to eventually be able to check e-mail and gain Internet access while driving. LHSP seems to be building a little base right here around the psychologically important $100 level. The trendless action could spell the end of the downtrend from LHSP's recent high in the low $140's. The market sold off very strongly into the close. If we get a follow through on the open tomorrow, look to buy LHSP at around $100. We recommend that you protect yourself with a stop at $98, which seems to be support and is just below the intraday lows of the week. We will be exiting this position before the tentatively set payable date for the split on April 28th. The payable date will be confirmed during the shareholder's meeting on April 17th.


Picked on April 11th @ $104.25
Change since picked +1.37



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

INTC - Intel Corporation $121.12 -0.75 (-15.69)

To keep up with global demand for computer chips, consumer electronics and high-speed communications, Intel's recent $6 billion investment in chip production should bode well for future growth. Specifically, much of the computer chip demand stems from rapid growth in cellular phones, pagers, video games and networking products. This future growth potential may represent one reason why brokerage firms are upgrading INTC stock. Today's upgrade from ABN AMRO from a Hold to Outperform, may have helped to shield Intel shares from continued weakness in the technology sector. The stock was in positive territory throughout most of the day, until selling in the last couple of hours pushed prices down to finish at $121.06. The stock did manage to hold above $120, which is currently bolstered by a 50-dma ($120.84). Look for firm bounces off current levels as an opportunity to open new plays, when daily volume is stronger than average (27.0m). If a price reversal does come to fruition, then look for the stock to face initial resistance at the 30-dma ($128.47), before meeting secondary resistance at $140. On April 12th, the board of directors filed a DEF-14a to increase the number of authorized shares. Exits should be in place before the close of trading on 4/18, earnings will be reported after the market. We are moving our stops for this stock. We will exit on an intraday move below $114, or on a market close below $120 Friday.


Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked -8.76



LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $105.00 -0.19 (-14.50)

As Lexmark's top-quality laser and inkjet printers continue their dominance of the sub-$1000 computer market, the company is able to gain a special niche through these purchases. The number of Lexmark users continues to increase, the company stands to accumulate a steady flow of revenues from their replacement ink cartridges. Currently, these ink cartridges carry lofty margins and represent more than 50% of the company's earnings. As for the stock's performance, after reversing sharply from its daily lows ($100.94), LXK shares recouped earlier losses and managed a slightly lower close from yesterday, finishing down just 0.17%. If today's reversal is able to follow through, then expect the stock to find resistance at the 50-dma ($116.11), which is accompanied just higher by the 30-dma ($117.91). Good daily volume (1.3m or better) will likely have to be present in order for additional price advances. As previously indicated, price moves through resistance when combined with good volume will trigger our entries. Also look for additional plays if prices give a hard bounce off the century mark. However, pick your entries off support carefully. Our stop is moved to $97.50 (intraday) and also will trigger if the stock closes below $100 Friday. We'll plan on holding through the Shareholders meeting of 4/27 (unless momentum swings to the downside and stops us out) for possible a split announcement that may follow.


Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked -1.25



SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. $105.94 (+3.00) (-20.88)

Sit Siebel Sit, Gooood Siebel. Siebel Systems, Inc. is the market leader in enterprise-class sales, marketing, and customer service information systems. Their web-based application software family helps even the largest multi-national organizations to focus on increasing effectiveness in field sales, telesales, telemarketing, call centers and third-party resellers. We would like to begin this update with an apology and a correction. On Tuesday we reported that SEBL currently has enough shares to effect a 3:2 split. Currently SEBL has 196 millions shares outstanding and 800 million authorized. Therefore SEBL has enough shares to effect a split greater than 3:2. We apologize for this oversight. We began with our "sit" comment because SEBL has sat nicely at the 100-dma both Wednesday and today. We mentioned Tuesday that the stock has good support at this level and we continue to hold to this belief. Volume both days has been about average, nice considering the increased volume in so many NASDQ stocks during the continued sell-off. We now find some overhead resistance at $112.00, which was approximately the high today. The company again confirmed they would be announcing earnings on 4/18 at 4:15 EST. Hopefully, tomorrow morning will see a test of the 3500 level on the NASDAQ. 3500 is the 200-dma. If this happens and we get a bounce, then SEBL may have a good chance for what is left of an earnings run. We will be out before earnings and would advise likewise. The bounce, if it comes, should be accompanied by good volume. Leave stops in place just below $95.00 in the event 3500 gets taken out on the NASDAQ.


Picked on April 11th @ $113.00
Change since picked -7.06 



SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

ANEN - Anaren Microwave, Inc. $98.62 +2.12 (-16.75)

ANEN opened higher Wednesday along with the NASDAQ, but just for a moment. After the open it took a decided turn downward and blew through our stop just below the 20-dma at $94.88, as mentioned in Tuesday's write up. Alas, we say farewell to ANEN for now. The 3:2 split is scheduled for 6/9, which may enable us to reenter this play at a later date. We will watch the earnings next week and see if ANEN will offer us any openings for a split run play. Should market conditions become more favorable, and ANEN comes back to life, we may feature this play again in the future.


Picked on April 9th @ $115.38

Profit/Loss = -20.50 (-18%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $94.88)
Best Profit = +12.10 (+10%)



APH - Amphenol Corporation $113.38 -1.88 (-5.25)

Amphenol has been sliding all week. On Thursday, the stock triggered our stops at $110 and we closed our positions. Although the stock recovered later in the day, we are still dropping this stock tonight. The Company does not put out much news and the earnings surprise is already factored in. We have a gain on the play so why not take the safe route. If you are still in APH, set tight stops at $110 and look for an exit Friday.


Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25

Profit/Loss = +7.75 (+8%)  (Stopped out Thursday @ $110.00)
Best Profit = +18.00 (+18%)



BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $64.00 -6.13 (-33.37)

The comeback for this Internet Company ended abruptly this week and we were forced to stop out of this position before things got really ugly. Wednesday's stop price was $69.75 and the stock has fallen more than another 5 points and seems poised to drop even lower. It is amazing how investors can pound a stock so violently after loving the Company so recently. Fear and greed continue to be powerful forces. The market completely ignored yesterday's positive news item. BEAS announced the release of some new powerful data transformation and routing capabilities for their BEA eLink Integration server. The stock could find some support at $50 if this selloff continues.


Picked on April 6th @ $88.31 

Profit/Loss = -18.56 (-21%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $69.75)
Best Profit = +11.44 (+13%)



CHINA - China.com Corporation $46.44 -3.63 (-23.25)

The Internet sector has taken the recent sell-off in the NASDAQ particularly hard. CHINA, which has taken part in this drop, has seen shares decline over 100 points since the first week of March! Our stop of $55.75 was set rather tight to help prevent further possible declines of this magnitude. Though we believe the Internet sector will generate good momentum plays in the future, for now we'll stay on the sidelines until selling pressure abates. CHINA continues to be an interesting company to follow and should present us with good upcoming plays.


Picked on March 30th @ $79.81

Profit/Loss = -24.06 (-30%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $55.75)
Best Profit = +6.19 (+8%)



CMRC - Commerce One $84.56 -9.19 (-55.44)

Commerce One and the entire B2B sector is in serious trouble. These stock are not the ones to own in the midst of a value call as they are speculative in nature and do not have large amounts of revenue. The group has not snapped back despite a positive earnings announcement from Ariba (ARBA), one of the big guns in the B2B space. As we said on Tuesday, we are dropping the stock on a dip below $100 intra-day. That happened on Wednesday so we are dropping CMRC. If you did not get stopped out on Wednesday, we recommend placing stops under $83 and exiting on strength tomorrow.


Picked on April 4th @ $121.00

Profit/Loss = -21.12 (-17%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $99.88)
Best Profit = +21.06 (+17%)



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $55.06 -1.56 (-22.31)

Metromedia Fiber Network is not able to break above its 5-dma. On Wednesday, our stops went off when it traded below $60. We are formally dropping this play tonight. We actually dropped MFNX when it fell below $60 on Wednesday. Hopefully, you had your stops in as well. If not, place stops under $54 and plan to exit on strength Friday. You may get a little pop going into the split but don't count on it.


Picked on March 26th @ $98.06

Profit/Loss = -38.18 (-39%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $59.88)
Best Profit = +5.69 (+6%)



NT - Nortel Networks $99.00 -5.31 (-25.93)

The long term growth prospects still remain excellent for NT, but the short term prospects for the stock seem shaky and that is why we stopped out of this play at $115. The selling pressure is so strong that the stock failed to hold $100 today. Nortel received a $500 million order from the newly created wireless giant, Verizon. Obviously, the market is largely ignoring positive news items.


Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25

Profit/Loss = -22.25 (-16%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $115.00)
Best Profit = +6.94 (+5%)



NXLK - NEXTLINK Communications Inc. $89.94 -3.62 (-17.31)

Over this last week NXLK has shown susceptibility to selling pressure in technology related securities. This was best witnessed as a weak recovery, followed by a potent retracement through our stop level of $93.56 on Wednesday. As volume continued to increase through this retracement, it became probable that further selling may plague NXLK shares. Our stop was set at a level that offered the stock every opportunity to resume its original uptrend, prior to heading lower. We'll keep you posted on future potential plays.


Picked on April 6th @ $105.44

Profit/Loss = -11.88 (-11%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $93.56) 
Best Profit = +7.06 (+7%)



NXTL - Nextel $113.56 +2.86 (-28.88)

Nextel has met with resistance every time it moves above the 5- dma and market conditions are not favorable right now. We were stopped out on Wednesday as the stock fell below major support at $120 and proceeded to dip to an intra-day low of $110.50 just before the closing bell. On Thursday, NXTL was flying early in the day but soon reversed direction and fell below our support levels again. Since the stock set off our stops, we are dropping NXTL tonight.


Picked on March 21st @ $148.63

Profit/Loss = -28.75 (-19%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $119.88)
Best Profit = +13.00 (+9%)



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

A - Agilent Technologies $90.00 +4.00 (-32.00)

We stopped out of this play yesterday when the stock failed to hold support at the $100 price level. We sure are glad we did, because even today's relatively strong action for Agilent was only good enough to bring the stock back up to $90, a full 9.25 points below our stop price of $99.25. The stock has been under pressure despite the fact that the Company boasts a solid balance sheet and is the leader of its field. Bear markets kill everyone, but we suspect that Agilent will probably be one of the survivors when this debacle ends.


Picked on April 6th @ $105.00

Profit/Loss = -5.75 (-5%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $99.25)
Best Profit = +20.00 (+19%)



ADBE - Adobe Systems $113.56 +1.50 (-11.44)

Adobe Systems is consolidating right now but there could be more weakness ahead if the broader market does not turn around. On Wednesday, shares of ADBE hit out stop-loss price and we exited. There was a bounce on Thursday but we are dropping this play regardless. Earnings are way off and the Annual Meeting is a couple of weeks away so we may come back to ADBE if conditions in the tech sector stabilize.


Picked on April 6th @ $114.62  

Profit/Loss = -2.62 (-2%)  (Stopped out Wednesday @ $112.00)
Best Profit = +10.38 (+9%)



BRCM - Broadcom $144.06 -13.94 (-63.69)

Broadcom and the rest of the chip sector have been fighting ever since Motorola (MOT) announced their numbers and a weak outlook for the remainder of the year. BRCM was hit twice as hard because of the lofty valuation on the stock and it is also considered to be an Internet stock. On Wednesday, BRCM fell below our stop as the NASDAQ continued its decline. We are formally dropping this stock tonight because we were stopped out on Wednesday at $166.


Picked on March 16th @ $212.81

Profit/Loss = -46.81 (-22%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $166.00)
Best Profit = +40.19 (+19%)



CPTH - Critical Path, Inc. $62.06 -2.00 (-21.00)

"A professional trader is cool, calm, and collected. He knows what he'll do if the market goes up or down". A quote from Dr. Alexander Elder in his book Trading for A Living. Likewise we knew what to do if CPTH headed south, exit at out stop set at $70.00. Wednesday morning we were stopped out at that level and therefore must say good-bye to CPTH for now. It has been tough to fight the awesome selling going on in the NASDQ as of late. We will watch for future opportunities with CPTH and advise you accordingly.


Picked on April 9th @ $83.06

Profit/Loss = -13.06 (-7%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $70.00)
Best Profit = +3.94 (+5%)



EMC - EMC Corporation $120.00 -7.00 (-23.50)

Throughout the week, EMC showed a considerable amount of vulnerability to weakness in the technology sector. As such, the 52-week high resistance level of $145.44, proved to be too much for EMC whose shares hit near this level on Friday before selling off. This selloff, which broke through our stop of $125, has also been accompanied by increased volume. Strong volume to the downside is further evidence that more selling may continue. We'll keep you posted on future developments as they present themselves.


Picked on March 21st @ $135.13

Profit/Loss = -10.13 (-7%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $125.00)
Best Profit = +10.32  (+8%)



GLW - Corning Incorporated $153.02 -0.98 (-42.98)

Linked with the NASDAQ composite decline, the highly volatile fiber optics sector has remained in sell-off mode throughout the last couple of weeks. Much of this decline has negatively effected Corning shares, which pushed through our $165 stop level. This drop was also due in part to a news announcement that Dow Corning, a 50-50 joint venture with Dow Chemical Company, will likely pay $3.2 billion to settle claims with 170,000 women who used manufactured silicon breast implants. We will keep you updated as further potential plays present themselves.


Picked on March 26th @ $214.38

Profit/Loss = -49.38 (-23%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $165.00)
Best Profit = +0.06 (0%)



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $131.94 -3.06 (-24.06)

Further selling in technology related issues put additional pressure on Hewlett-Packard shares, which decisively broke through our stop at $140.00. This break was accompanied by good volume (4.67m), which can indicate a future tendency for downside momentum to continue. The break also provides more evidence that HWP may have formed a double top at $156 late last week. Although a double top has near term bearish implications, we believe that HWP will present us with several more potential plays down the road.


Picked on March 16th @ $133.00

Profit/Loss = +7.00 (+5%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $140.00)
Best Profit = +23.00 (+17%)



INKT - Inktomi $110.56 -12.44 (-70.31)

The love affair with Internet stocks seems to be over and INKT has been mercilessly pummeled. We sincerely hope that you followed our stop recommendation. If you had, you should be out of this position at a price around $134.88. Now that the selling has accelerated and we have missed the last 25 points of the drop, very aggressive traders may want to consider reentry of a position in this stock on a bounce off of $100.


Picked on April 4th @ $158.00

Profit/Loss = -23.12 (-15%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $134.88)
Best Profit = +23.00 (+15%)



ORCL - Oracle Corporation $71.94 -1.19 (-15.18)

Nope! Despite a positive open on Wednesday, ORCL buckled under the pressure of the NASDAQ and by late morning hit our stop at $73.00. A brief rally shortly afterward proved to be just a head- fake, and the afternoon session again took out the stop level. The company has a shareholder's meeting on 5/10 and as mentioned are voting to increase shares. If the NASDAQ can find its bottom and head back up, we certainly will watch ORCL for trading opportunities going into that meeting. For now we exit with no regrets; for it is better to have a plan and stick to it, than to have no plan at all and have it stick you. We will advise you of any new positions if they become available with ORCL.


Picked on April 9th @ $87.12

Profit/Loss = -14.12 (-16%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $73.00)
Best Profit = +0.51 (+1%)



QCOM - Qualcomm $126.50 +1.38 (-25.75)

The key to capital preservation is discipline and that is why we stopped out of QCOM. The Company is still a leader and will probably come back, but in the meantime we will stay away from QCOM until investors can renew their faith in the stock. There is some pretty good support at $120, so the stock may continue to bounce off of that level. Our stop was executed at $133.94, under the 50-DMA.


Picked on March 28th @ $154.81

Profit/Loss = -20.87 (-13%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $133.94)
Best Profit = +7.75 (+5%)



TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $56.06 -6.94 (-38.44)

Tumbleweed traded up to its 5-dma on Wednesday morning, but quickly changed direction, breaching the $70 support level. As we said on Tuesday, we would drop this stock if it falls below $70. It did that on Wednesday so we are formally dropping TMWD now.


Picked on April 4th @ $82.00 

Profit/Loss = -12.00 (-15%) (Stopped out Wednesday @ $70.00)
Best Profit = +15.44 (+19%)


 


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