NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $104.25 +0.50 (-8.88)
Although LHSP is down on the week, we feel that this could be one
of the strongest stocks when the NASDAQ recovers. LHSP is a
leader of voice recognition technologies and their recent
partnership agreement with AOL should put them on the forefront
of this cutting edge technology for years to come. Helping to add
a little relative strength to the stock is the fact that the
shares will be splitting 2:1. The split was announced back in
February. Shareholders will be voting to approve the split on
April 17th. Once that foregone conclusion is realized, the split
is scheduled to be payable on April 28th. The earnings will be
announced in early May. One of the initial applications for
voice recognition technologies is the automobile. LHSP created a
joint venture today with Visteon to develop the next generation
of speech-enabled solutions for the automobile. The key to the
next generation will be speech-enabled Internet portal services.
Unlike so many tech stocks, LHSP has shown a more controlled
pullback from its $143 high. OBV has remained strong but the
MACD has been in a steady downtrend but we are attempting to
anticipate an upturn. One positive has been the stock's ability
to hold on to support at $100 after dropping below that price
last week. We like the idea of picking up the stock in the low
$100's. If the stock gaps below $100 tomorrow, be patient about
initiating a new position. Perhaps you should wait for support
to hold at $95 before entering a buy order. There is some good
resistance at $118.50, which might be a good exit point if the
stock fails to go through. We will be exiting this stock no later
than just before the April 28th payable date.
Picked on April 11th @ $104.25
Change since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. $113.00 +2.58 (-13.82)
"Hi, my name is SEBL and I am a recovering stock split
candidate". On March 16th we dropped SEBL when it violated our
stop at $135.00. Since then, this world-leading supplier of
eBusiness Application software has been in need of help. Any
recovering alcoholic will tell you, you can't get better until
you've hit your bottom and we think that SEBL may have done just
that. At its current price, SEBL is at a level from which it
began its 58-point ascent in February. During last week's NASDAQ
awakening, the stock traded as low as $80.00, but snapped back to
close at support at $97.00. The stock rallied the rest of the
week with a gain of just over $7.00 by Friday's close. Today, the
stock did an admirable job in the face of the NASDAQ giving up -
132 points. Last October, shareholders approved an increase in
shares from 300M to 800M and in November, SEBL had a 2:1 split.
With SEBL due to report in just 5 trading days, we believe this
is the start of the earnings and hopefully, split announcement
run. After last November's split, there are still enough shares
to announce a 3:2 split, but they can always ask for more shares
from shareholders and do a 2:1. We realize this is a short-term
play, as we always advise to exit ahead of earnings. However,
SEBL has beaten expectations the last 5 quarters and investors
may be buying in expectation they will do a repeat performance.
Institutional sellers were lightening their positions over the
last few weeks in SEBL and now may be a good opportunity for them
to reenter the stock. The stock has support at the 100-dma at
$102.00 and then at $97.00, as mentioned. Place stops at $95.00
to limit any fallout that could be promoted by the NASDAQ, should
it seek to retest last week's lows. Resistance can been found
overhead at $127.00 and then at $139.00. We will be exiting this
play before the earnings on 4/18. If a split announcement comes
with earnings, we will look for new split run opportunities and
advise you accordingly.
Picked on April 11th @ $113.00
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
ANEN - Anaren Microwave, Inc. $ 103.75 (-10.00) (-11.63)
Anaren Microwave, Inc. designs, manufactures, develops and
markets Radio Frequency (RF), microwave subsystems and components
for the wireless communications, satellite communications &
electronic warfare markets. Monday, our new split run play began
with great gusto with ANEN blasting to a new high of $127.84 in
the first hour of trading. But as the day wore on, and the NASDQ
began its decent, so went ANEN, closing down (-1.63) on the day.
Monday's volume was an impressive 233K, up 76%. Today the stock
closed neatly at its 10-dma of $103.75 on less than half of
yesterday's volume. This level also was formerly a level of
resistance for the stock and may now serve as support. Resistance
is back up at Friday's closing price at ($115.38). Earnings are
next week on 4/19 we will exit the day before and will reevaluate
the play after earnings for new entry points. Stops should still
be placed just under the 20-dma @ $95.00. Should the stock close
below $100.00, we will be out of this play.
Picked on April 9th @ $115.38
Change since picked -11.63
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APH - Amphenol Corporation $117.25 -0.13 (-1.38)
Amphenol was met with resistance from the opening trade on
Monday. Shares of APH opened at $120 but quickly fell along with
the rest of the NASDAQ. The weakness continued on Tuesday as the
stock hit an intra-day low of $110.75 before bouncing back on
light volume. This could be the start of a short consolidation
move or something worse. The Company is scheduled to announce
earnings on 4/19 and the 2:1 split is payable on 4/25. APH has
pre-announced an earnings surprise but the stock has traded up
20% since then so the news is probably already reflected it the
price. Looking ahead, there is support at $115 and then the 5-dma
at $110. Place hard stops at $110 to protect profits. Resistance
remains at $120. If we break through $120, resistance could come
in at $125 or $130. Start new plays on a bounce off of $110 or a
breakout above $120 on strong volume. Confirm market direction
and sector momentum before opening new positions. Plan to exit in
front of the earnings release or if the stock breaks through the
$110 support level.
Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +15.00
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BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $76.63 -8.63 (-20.75)
Four days of incredible gyrations have left BEAS right back to
where it was last Wednesday. If we have a repeat of last week's
action, we saw the low for the week on BEAS today. That said,
this is not a time to become complacent. Investors are exiting
"new economy" stocks on any hint of weakness and we do not want
to get trapped if BEAS is going to retest last week's lows,
despite the stock's oversold condition. BEAS does have the
misfortune of being guilty of having two characteristics that the
sellers are targeting these days; an astronomical PE (at least
they have some earnings) and being in the e-commerce sector. It
is curious to note that BEAS does have a 2:1 split coming on
April 24th. In order to protect ourselves from another NASDAQ
meltdown, we highly recommend that you place a stop at $69.75,
just below today's low. If BEAS can avoid further selling, look
for the stock to slowly work its way back up with perhaps less
vigor than we saw late last week. The first resistance should be
found at $80. We will be exiting this position before the April
24th payable date.
Picked on April 6th @ $88.31
Change since picked -11.68
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CHINA - China.com Corporation $59.19 -5.19 (-10.50)
Despite the NASDAQ composite weakness having negatively impacted
CHINA shares thus far this week, another agreement was reached
today that will help to ensure CHINA's role as the leading pan-
Asian Internet Company. Under the agreement, CHINA will team with
Spotcast Communications Incorporated, a global leader in mobile
commerce (m-commerce) marketing solutions, to provide advertising
and e-marketing to Spotcast's mobile phone users. Though this
bodes well for CHINA's future success, shares have followed a
rough market for technology stocks thus far this week. With
today's drop on a positive news announcement, we feel that the
potential for future declines may remain high if prices drop
below today's low of $55.75. Stops should be set in place for any
intraday retracements through $55.75. Positions can still be
opened with advances from current levels or on hard bounces off
support, when accompanied by good daily volume (1.7m or better).
In addition, confirm strength in the Internet sector prior to
opening new positions. The payable date should be announced after
the Shareholders meeting of 4/28. If we are not forced out
before hand, look to exit in front of the payable date, as is our
policy.
Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -20.62
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CMRC - Commerce One $110.00 -9.50 (-30.00)
Commerce One and the B2B sector are having a rough week.
Safeguard Scientific (SFE), a technology incubator, basically
abandoned the group over the weekend and this has put more
pressure on a weak sector. The comments stopped the B2B recovery
dead in its tracks. By Tuesday afternoon, shares of CMRC had hit
a low of $107. Away from the stock activity, CMRC agreed to a
joint venture with Korean electronics firm, LG International and
five other Korean companies on Monday. On Tuesday, just before
the closing bell, CMRC signed a deal with several leading energy
and petrochemical companies, including Royal/Dutch Shell (RD), BP
Amoco (BPA) and Dow Chemical (DOW). After the bell, Commerce One
signed a joint venture agreement with Schlumberger (SLB) to
create a B2B exchange for the energy and petrochemical
industries. The deals came late in the day and may help the stock
tomorrow. Ariba (ARBA) is expected to announce earnings on
Wednesday after the bell so this may help or hurt CMRC on
Thursday. Commerce One is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19
and the 2:1 split is also payable on 4/19, so we are looking for
the momentum to pick up very soon. Until then, support is
Tuesday's low of $107 with stronger support at the century mark.
Set hard stops under $100 to limit losses. Resistance is the 5-
dma at $122 and then the 10-dma at $135. Look for a bounce off of
$107 or a move above $122 before opening new positions. Initiate
new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit
by 4/18 or on a close below $107.
Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked -11.00
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KSS - Kohl's Corporation $106.00 -2.75 (-0.19)
Kohl's Corporation cooled a bit on Tuesday after it hit a record
high on Monday. Volume has been average this week as the stock
consolidates its recent move from $70. Support held up at the 5-
dma, which gives us some confidence in the stock. We expect the
momentum to return as we move closer to the 2:1 split, payable on
4/24. In the meantime, support is steady at the 5-dma, now $105.
Psychological support is the century mark. Keep stops under $100
to lock in gains. Resistance is firm at $110 and then possibly
$115. Look for a bounce off of $105 or a breakout above $110 on
heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and
sector momentum before opening new positions. Exit no later than
4/20.
Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +6.44
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $64.25 -2.63 (-13.13)
The rally on Metromedia Fiber Network fell short on Monday. The
stock touched its resistance level and then proceeded to fall
with the rest of the NASDAQ, closing below its $70 support level.
On Tuesday, MFNX hit resistance at $70 and then dipped to an
intra-day low of $60 before recovering later in the session.
Hopefully, $60 will become support. The 2:1 split is payable on
4/17 and there is only 3 trading days left on this play so we
will close this play if the support breaks down at $60. We
recommend placing hard stops under $60 to prevent further losses.
Resistance is $70 and then $80. Open new positions on a bounce
off of $62 or a breakout above $70 on strong volume. Confirm
sector direction and market sentiment before initiating new
plays. Plan to exit no later than 4/14 or on dip below support.
Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -33.81
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NT - Nortel Networks $116.75 -5.05 (-8.19)
Nortel is hanging in there during round two of the April tech
wreck. Insulating NT from some of the selling is a solid balance
sheet, huge product line and a non-NASDAQ stock listing. Having
said that, NT was negatively affected by the MOT selloff, due to
its sizable wireless operations. Nortel released a new product
today at the Telecom Americas 2000 Conference in Brazil. It is a
satellite system that provides fixed wireless access (FWA) for
Internet use. This solution could be of particular interest in
developing South and Central American countries. NT also
announced today that they will align with Blue Pumpkin to provide
advanced solutions for the second wave of e-Business. Blue
Pumpkin is a software solutions company concentrating on customer
service via the Internet. NT fell through the first support
level at $120. If you had followed our advice, you would not
have bought the stock below this level. It is unfortunate
because we felt that NT would be strong enough to at least
consolidate in the $120-$130 range. We suggest that you drop
this position if the stock trades under today's low. If the sock
trades below $115.25 we could be testing $105 pretty quickly.
Therefore, we suggest placing a stop at $114.75. If the stock
gaps down a bunch on the opening, give it a little time to bounce
back before exiting, in the hopes of getting a better price than
the opening print. If we are not stopped out of NT, we will be
looking to exit this position before the April 25th earnings
date.
Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -20.50
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NXLK - NEXTLINK Communications Inc. $100.75 -1.75 (-6.50)
A rush of enthusiasm in the broadband wireless sector has kept
momentum in this group flourishing, and Nextlink has enjoyed the
ride. The Company's tunnel vision-like focus on broadband
technology has kept the stock as a top performer among the
wireless group. But, as of recently, the shares have come under
pressure from significant declines in the tech-laden NASDAQ
composite. Initially, it looked probable that NXLK shares would
likely rebound up near 52-week highs, but a continued sell-off in
technology stocks has instead lead to further weakness. To
protect against further declines, we are placing stops for
intraday price moves below the 100-dma ($91.47), and for closes
below the century mark. Future bounces off support, when combined
with better than average volume could face initial resistance at
the 50-dma ($109.31), before further recoveries occur. Look for
weak volume (1.0m or less) to be a continued sign of price
weakness, regardless of price advances. Design your entries
carefully as stop levels are near current prices. Plan exits
ahead of the payable date of 6/15.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.44
Change since picked -4.69
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NXTL - Nextel $128.25 -3.50 (-14.19)
Nextel rallied early on Tuesday morning but fell victim to the
harsh round of selling on the NASDAQ by the end of the day. The
stock hit an intra-day low of $124.50 but mounted a small
recovery by the closing bell. In the news, their CFO has
registered 138,000 shares for sale, putting additional pressure
on NXTL. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/26
before the bell and the 2:1 split is payable on 6/6. We are
looking for momentum to come back to the sector as we get closer
to the earnings release. For now, there is light support at $124
with stronger support at the 100-dma, now at $120. Place hard
stops just under $120 to limit losses. Resistance is now at the
10-dma at $140 and then the 20-dma at $145. Look for a bounce off
of $124 or a move above $140 to initiate new plays. Open new
positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit
prior to the earnings release or on an intra-day move below $120.
Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -20.38
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
A - Agilent Technologies $100.94 -6.19 (-21.06)
Volatility continues to reign supreme among the technology
stocks. Agilent lost its quick 20% two-day gain in exactly two
days. We still like the possibility that Agilent will outperform
other technology shares when the recovery starts in earnest. MOT
certainly had a negative affect on Agilent, but we believe that
if the stock can hold on, it should rally in anticipation of a
good earnings release on May 18th. There have been an incredible
number of new product releases for Agilent in the past two days.
This is further evidence of Agilent's strong leadership role in
the test and measurement equipment field. Some of the new
product announcements include; the introduction of a new ATM
probe that allows for the seamless processing of ATM data into
network operations and a new testing interface for the set-top
box, digital VCR and digital TV products. One excuse for the
selling of Agilent is the announcement that HWP will spin-off the
remaining 85% stake it holds in Agilent to shareholders on May
2nd. The spin-off could cause some selling pressure because some
HWP shareholders will probably dump the Agilent shares they
receive. We are right back to where we were last Wednesday.
There is critical support at the $100 level. We advise that you
get out of the way if the stock drops below today's low of
$99.50, and definitely close your position if the stock closes
below $100 tomorrow. If we get a bounce, resistance will again
be found at $110 and $120. If Agilent can hang in there at
current levels, we will be exiting this position before the May
2nd spin-off.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.00
Change since picked -4.06
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ADBE - Adobe Systems $119.50 +2.31 (-5.50)
Adobe Systems saw some profit taking mixed in with some general
market weakness on Monday. However, on Tuesday, the stock closed
in positive territory despite a big sell-off on the NASDAQ. The
Company just launched several new products that are driving the
stock right now. Adobe has their Annual Shareholder Meeting on
4/26, when shareholders will be voting on an increase in
authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement in the
near future or shortly after the Annual Meeting. On the technical
side, there is light support at $116 with stronger support on the
10-dma at $112. Set stops under $112 to minimize losses.
Resistance has formed at $125. If the stock breaks out, the next
level of resistance may be $130. Open new positions on a bounce
off of $116 or a breakout above $125. Initiate new plays on heavy
volume, only in a rising market. Exit following the Annual
meeting, or in the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 6th @ $114.63
Change since picked +4.88
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BRCM - Broadcom $176.63 -17.88 (-31.13)
Broadcom was hurt by the Motorola (MOT) earnings announcement on
Monday night. BRCM provides broadband equipment to MOT and the
outlook for MOT was not great this year. However, MOT cited
rising component costs (on BRCM parts) as the major problem, even
though demand was strong. Is this really good news? We'll find
out on 4/18 when the Company announces earnings. They also have
their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27, when the shareholders
will vote on an increase in authorized shares. We are looking for
a split announcement either with earnings or following the Annual
Meeting. Until then, light support is $170, with stronger support
at $166. Set hard stops under $166, as we will drop this play if
it dips below this level. Resistance has come down to $190 and
then the 5-dma at $198. Start new plays on a bounce off of $170
or a move above $190 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment
and sector direction before opening new positions. We recommend
an exit in front of earnings.
Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -36.19
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CPTH - Critical Path, Inc. $73.12 (-7.88) (-9.94)
Critical Path, Inc. follows the path of least resistance. At
least these last two days, that is the case. Even a #1 Rating by
Forbes Magazine as the Fastest Growing Technology Company was not
enough for this international end-to-end Internet messaging
provider to fight the NASDAQ's decline. Monday morning CPTH
bucked the trend, headed higher and challenged its resistance at
$85.00. However, less than average volume wouldn't keep this
stock in the green for long as it soon traded lower to the close.
Today the stock gapped down to $76.00 at the open and stayed the
course the rest of the day. We had hoped that based on the past
earnings, CPTH would have a good run up to that date, scheduled
for 4/20. We are placing a hard stop just under $70.00 and if the
stock trades below that intra-day, we will exit this play.
Resistance is still up at $85.00. Should the stock start an
upward climb again, we will still exit ahead of earnings and look
for a split announcement at that time.
Picked on April 9th @ $83.06
Change since picked -9.94
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EMC - EMC Corporation $129.88 -5.13 (-14.13)
As the baby boomer segment of the population begins to retire,
EMC is finding efficient methods to help record the future
medical needs of this group. The Date General division of EMC
announced on Monday that they plan on implementing a complete
family of EMC Symmetrix Enterprise Storage solutions for the
healthcare industry. The strategy will allow EMC to develop E-
Infrastructure systems that will allow electronic medical record
(EMR) and point of care solutions. Although positive news for the
Company, EMC shares sold off this weak in line with a broad
decline in technology issues. Friday's climb toward all time
highs was met by swift resistance at the 52-week high mark
($145.44), forming a possible double-top formation. With this
possibility in mind, we need to be very selective in our entries.
Light support was witnessed by today's bounce near the 30-dma
($129.33), while heavier support should likely follow at $125.
Given the recent slide in technology issues, we are recommending
that stops be placed if continued weakness pulls prices below
$125. Keep in mind that strong reversals off these support areas
will still represent good entry points. Look for resistance to be
at $140 and again at $145.44 (all-time high). We'll plan our
exits prior to the earning date of 4/18.
Note: EMC earnings have been revised from 4/26 to 4/18.
Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -5.25
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GLW - Corning Incorporated $170.25 -18.94 (-25.75)
Corning's impressive list of acquisitions continues to enhance
the future prospects and leadership role of this fiber optics
company. One of the Company's most impressive additions was that
of Oak Industries Lastertron segment. This purchase, which will
allow GLW to produce advanced pump lasers for optical network
transmission, should strengthen its position in the envisioned
future of light optical networks. The Company's continued
expansion has foreboded well for momentum plays in GLW. As for
the stock's recent performance, last week's recovery was short
lived, when prices found stiff resistance near the double century
mark ($200). Combine this resistance with a weak market in
technology issues, and you'll find GLW back near the $170 mark.
With intra-day volume verifying that most off today's volume was
mainly on the sell-side, we are recommending that hard stops be
placed for intra-day breaks below $165.00 (today's low). However,
if a strong rebound follows a bounce off current levels, then
expect some resistance at the 50-dma ($185.00) and heavier at the
double century level. If prices don't drop below $165, then we'll
plan on holding our positions through the Shareholders meeting of
4/27.
Picked on March 24th @ $214.38
Change since picked -44.13
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $145.81 -1.44 (-10.19)
Advances at the 52-week high mark are keeping Hewlett-Packard
shares an interesting target on our radar screen. Despite HWP's
near term decline from all time highs, we continue to see the
stock hold up better than several other related technology
stocks. As for its performance this week, all signs were go for
HWP to run higher. Looking back at Friday's high ($156.00),
we're now able to confirm that sizable resistance remains at the
stock's 52-week high level ($155.50 to $156.00). Given this
resistance and the possibility of a double top, we're keeping a
close eye on price reactions from support. Today's bounce off
daily lows provided a good sign that initial support should be
felt at $140.88, bolstered by both the 10 and 20-dma's ($140.52
and $140.89). Due to the significance of this area, we suggest
putting stops below $140.00 to guard against further possible
declines. However, if a price run can be sustained off a strong
bounce of $140 support, we'll expect to see resistance at
Friday's high ($156.00), prior to further advances. We'll keep
exits in place the day ahead of earnings, unless an announcement
comes before.
Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +12.81
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INKT - Inktomi $135.06 -26.19 (-45.82)
Fear is back and Internet stocks are under attack again. INKT
looked like it was going to be one of the Internet survivors due
to its business model. One that allows it to succeed as long as
new commerce sites are being built and its search engine is still
increasing in use. The one main factor that seems to be hurting
INKT is the fact that the Company is not yet profitable. Also
having a negative affect on the stock is the continued fallout
from the Yahoo! earnings, even though INKT seemed to have shaken
off those concerns with the late week rally. INKT will be
reporting April 18th, and the sentiment seems to be that INKT
will have to have a blowout quarter to advance after the
announcement. High PE and no PE stocks are particularly
vulnerable to selloffs. Inktomi did have some good news today,
unveiling its third generation search engine, which includes an
index of the most comprehensive and relevant documents on the
Internet. We are not going to mess around with this stock too
much. If the stock trades below today's low of $135, we highly
recommend getting out of the stock by placing a stop at $134 7/8.
Bottom line, if the stock does not start heading up right away,
we want to be out. If there is a severe gap down on the open,
give the stock a chance to bounce for a half an hour before
getting out. You do not want to be ripped off. If INKT heads
higher tomorrow, look for resistance at $150. If we are not
stopped out, we will be exiting this position before the April
18th earnings report.
Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked -22.94
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INTC - Intel Corporation $130.75 -0.38 (-6.06)
One of the main factors that have kept Intel the leading
manufacturer of computer chips has been Corporate Management's
ability to correctly assume current and future trends in
semiconductor production. Speaking at a conference in Tokyo on
Monday, Intel's CEO Craig Barrett, stated, "Given the strength in
the information technology (IT) economy… we're liable to see a
shortage of semiconductors across the board in the year 2000 and
perhaps next year". To meet this demand, INTC will invest $6
billion this year to increase chip production capacity for
computer chips. This investment should prove to reap higher
earnings for Intel in the future. In spite of the news release,
Intel shares sold off in accord with a sizeable NASDAQ decline on
Monday. Today's opening gapped down into previous consolidation
and finished the day at $130.75, down 0.28%. An intra-day bounce
off the 30-dma ($128.07) was confirmed by good volume and
represents our initial level of support. Secondary support off
the 50-dma ($120) is a requirement for our continued play of INTC
shares. Stops should be in place for price moves below the 50-dma
mark. Look for hard bounces off support to find resistance at the
$140 mark, and higher still at the 52-week high of $145.38. With
these hard bounces off support, look to open positions. Design
an exit before earnings on 4/18, as per our normal policy.
Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +0.87
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LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $105.25 -9.94 (-14.25)
When demand exceeds supply, generally stock prices soar. This has
resulted in Lexmark's phenomenal momentum run. The only problem
with the supply vs. demand issue is that Lexmark is fighting to
keep up with the overwhelming demand for their highly affordable
printers. To cope with this demand, the Company's new facilities
in Mexico and the Philippines should help to improve printer
production in the second half of this year. As for the stock,
Friday's run up to our stated resistance mark of $120 proved to
be too solid for an immediate advance. Today showed further
weakness in the stock as prices gapped down below the 50-dma
($115.84), on heavier volume. Based on this weakness, we are
placing a stop for any intraday moves below the century mark. Be
aware that future advances from the century level would form a
double bottom, which could transform the decline into a very
bullish pattern. If this scenario does unfold, then look for
prices to once again test the $120 resistance level, prior to
running higher. Look to open positions off strong bounces from
support when combined with good daily volume (1.3m or better). A
split announcement may follow the Shareholders meeting of 4/27,
we'll keep you posted.
Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked -1.00
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ORCL- Oracle Corporation $77.37 (-5.12) (-9.76)
After receiving a standing ovation, often the polite thing to do
is take a seat. Last week's accolades for Oracle Corporation
included the Government's highest award for software security
certification and recognition in Goldman Sachs elite "Super
Seven" portfolio. This week, ORCL has been seated in the company
of many a NASDAQ stock. We mentioned in Sunday's write up that
run-ups on light volume often retest support and that is just
what ORCL has done, bouncing off support today at $76.00.
Monday's opening challenged resistance at $88.00, only to give
way to the mightier hand of the NASDAQ. ORCL now sits on a very
import support level. A move below the 50-dma at $73.00 will
trigger our hard stop and we will have to say so long for now.
Down volume increase by 25% today with 35.5 millions shares
traded. If the stock can hold here at $76.00 and the NASDAQ can
cooperate, and Larry Ellison the CEO doesn't suddenly die, (the
"what if" scare of online message boards), then this would be a
good entry point. The only near term positive event is still the
shareholders meeting scheduled for 5/10 with a vote to increase
shares. However, as stated, we are out if things worsen and the
stock trades below $73.
Picked on April 9th @ $87.13
Change since picked -9.76
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QCOM - Qualcomm $137.44 -3.75 (-14.81)
What at first appeared to be good news for QCOM, Motorola's
negative conference call, eventually drove the shares of QCOM
along with the rest of the wireless sector lower. MOT guided
analysts lower for the rest of the year partly due to reduced
expectations for high-end wireless products. The big question is
whether QCOM is suffering from the same problems that MOT is, or
are they benefiting from MOT's problems? We probably will not
know until QCOM reports their earnings on April 18th. It is time
to protect ourselves against the possibility of QCOM dropping all
the way back down to the bottom of its 2000 trading range in the
$120-$125 area. The 50-DMA is now sitting at $137 1/4. If QCOM
closes below this price tomorrow, we will be dropping this play.
On an intraday basis, you should protect yourself by placing a
stop just below today's low print of $133.94. 4000 showed some
support for the NASDAQ today, but a drop below that support and
the selling could get ugly and we want to be out of the way if
that does happen. If QCOM can hold on over the next two days, we
will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings
report.
Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -17.37
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TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $76.00 -2.19 (-18.50)
Tumbleweed is struggling again. After a few positive days, the
stock took back everything and more. The stock trades on momentum
and news. This week, we had neither. On Monday, the stock fell
with the Internet sector as people panic out of high-multiple
stocks. Tuesday, TMWD traded in-line with the NASDAQ as it hit an
intra-day high of $80, fell to a low of $70 in the heat of the
sell-off, and recovered a little at the close. The Company is
scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 (unconfirmed) and we are
looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings
release. For now, there is support at the 100-dma ($75) with
stronger support at $70. Set hard stops under $70 as protection.
Resistance is now $80 and then $90. Initiate new plays on a
bounce off of $70 or a move above $80. Open new positions on
heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit if
TMWD dips below $70 intra-day, or closes below the 100-dma. If
not, exit in front of earnings.
Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked -6.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
None
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $169.50 -10.94 (-27.00)
We are out of here and are happy to break even. If you have been
following our suggestions to take profits quickly, you may have
done better than just breaking even on this extremely volatile
stock. You would have protected profits if you had stopped out
just below the $185 support mentioned in Sunday's play update.
Earnings are tomorrow and we will continue to monitor all of the
developments concerning CHKP.
Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Profit/Loss = 0.00 (0%)
Best Profit = +30.50 (+18%)
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