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Play Updates
Tuesday, April 11, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $104.25 +0.50 (-8.88)

Although LHSP is down on the week, we feel that this could be one of the strongest stocks when the NASDAQ recovers. LHSP is a leader of voice recognition technologies and their recent partnership agreement with AOL should put them on the forefront of this cutting edge technology for years to come. Helping to add a little relative strength to the stock is the fact that the shares will be splitting 2:1. The split was announced back in February. Shareholders will be voting to approve the split on April 17th. Once that foregone conclusion is realized, the split is scheduled to be payable on April 28th. The earnings will be announced in early May. One of the initial applications for voice recognition technologies is the automobile. LHSP created a joint venture today with Visteon to develop the next generation of speech-enabled solutions for the automobile. The key to the next generation will be speech-enabled Internet portal services. Unlike so many tech stocks, LHSP has shown a more controlled pullback from its $143 high. OBV has remained strong but the MACD has been in a steady downtrend but we are attempting to anticipate an upturn. One positive has been the stock's ability to hold on to support at $100 after dropping below that price last week. We like the idea of picking up the stock in the low $100's. If the stock gaps below $100 tomorrow, be patient about initiating a new position. Perhaps you should wait for support to hold at $95 before entering a buy order. There is some good resistance at $118.50, which might be a good exit point if the stock fails to go through. We will be exiting this stock no later than just before the April 28th payable date.


Picked on April 11th @ $104.25
Change since picked 0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. $113.00 +2.58 (-13.82)

"Hi, my name is SEBL and I am a recovering stock split candidate". On March 16th we dropped SEBL when it violated our stop at $135.00. Since then, this world-leading supplier of eBusiness Application software has been in need of help. Any recovering alcoholic will tell you, you can't get better until you've hit your bottom and we think that SEBL may have done just that. At its current price, SEBL is at a level from which it began its 58-point ascent in February. During last week's NASDAQ awakening, the stock traded as low as $80.00, but snapped back to close at support at $97.00. The stock rallied the rest of the week with a gain of just over $7.00 by Friday's close. Today, the stock did an admirable job in the face of the NASDAQ giving up - 132 points. Last October, shareholders approved an increase in shares from 300M to 800M and in November, SEBL had a 2:1 split. With SEBL due to report in just 5 trading days, we believe this is the start of the earnings and hopefully, split announcement run. After last November's split, there are still enough shares to announce a 3:2 split, but they can always ask for more shares from shareholders and do a 2:1. We realize this is a short-term play, as we always advise to exit ahead of earnings. However, SEBL has beaten expectations the last 5 quarters and investors may be buying in expectation they will do a repeat performance. Institutional sellers were lightening their positions over the last few weeks in SEBL and now may be a good opportunity for them to reenter the stock. The stock has support at the 100-dma at $102.00 and then at $97.00, as mentioned. Place stops at $95.00 to limit any fallout that could be promoted by the NASDAQ, should it seek to retest last week's lows. Resistance can been found overhead at $127.00 and then at $139.00. We will be exiting this play before the earnings on 4/18. If a split announcement comes with earnings, we will look for new split run opportunities and advise you accordingly.


Picked on April 11th @ $113.00
Change since picked 0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

ANEN - Anaren Microwave, Inc. $ 103.75 (-10.00) (-11.63)

Anaren Microwave, Inc. designs, manufactures, develops and markets Radio Frequency (RF), microwave subsystems and components for the wireless communications, satellite communications & electronic warfare markets. Monday, our new split run play began with great gusto with ANEN blasting to a new high of $127.84 in the first hour of trading. But as the day wore on, and the NASDQ began its decent, so went ANEN, closing down (-1.63) on the day. Monday's volume was an impressive 233K, up 76%. Today the stock closed neatly at its 10-dma of $103.75 on less than half of yesterday's volume. This level also was formerly a level of resistance for the stock and may now serve as support. Resistance is back up at Friday's closing price at ($115.38). Earnings are next week on 4/19 we will exit the day before and will reevaluate the play after earnings for new entry points. Stops should still be placed just under the 20-dma @ $95.00. Should the stock close below $100.00, we will be out of this play.


Picked on April 9th @ $115.38
Change since picked -11.63



APH - Amphenol Corporation $117.25 -0.13 (-1.38)

Amphenol was met with resistance from the opening trade on Monday. Shares of APH opened at $120 but quickly fell along with the rest of the NASDAQ. The weakness continued on Tuesday as the stock hit an intra-day low of $110.75 before bouncing back on light volume. This could be the start of a short consolidation move or something worse. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 and the 2:1 split is payable on 4/25. APH has pre-announced an earnings surprise but the stock has traded up 20% since then so the news is probably already reflected it the price. Looking ahead, there is support at $115 and then the 5-dma at $110. Place hard stops at $110 to protect profits. Resistance remains at $120. If we break through $120, resistance could come in at $125 or $130. Start new plays on a bounce off of $110 or a breakout above $120 on strong volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of the earnings release or if the stock breaks through the $110 support level.


Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +15.00



BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $76.63 -8.63 (-20.75)

Four days of incredible gyrations have left BEAS right back to where it was last Wednesday. If we have a repeat of last week's action, we saw the low for the week on BEAS today. That said, this is not a time to become complacent. Investors are exiting "new economy" stocks on any hint of weakness and we do not want to get trapped if BEAS is going to retest last week's lows, despite the stock's oversold condition. BEAS does have the misfortune of being guilty of having two characteristics that the sellers are targeting these days; an astronomical PE (at least they have some earnings) and being in the e-commerce sector. It is curious to note that BEAS does have a 2:1 split coming on April 24th. In order to protect ourselves from another NASDAQ meltdown, we highly recommend that you place a stop at $69.75, just below today's low. If BEAS can avoid further selling, look for the stock to slowly work its way back up with perhaps less vigor than we saw late last week. The first resistance should be found at $80. We will be exiting this position before the April 24th payable date.


Picked on April 6th @ $88.31
Change since picked -11.68  



CHINA - China.com Corporation $59.19 -5.19 (-10.50)

Despite the NASDAQ composite weakness having negatively impacted CHINA shares thus far this week, another agreement was reached today that will help to ensure CHINA's role as the leading pan- Asian Internet Company. Under the agreement, CHINA will team with Spotcast Communications Incorporated, a global leader in mobile commerce (m-commerce) marketing solutions, to provide advertising and e-marketing to Spotcast's mobile phone users. Though this bodes well for CHINA's future success, shares have followed a rough market for technology stocks thus far this week. With today's drop on a positive news announcement, we feel that the potential for future declines may remain high if prices drop below today's low of $55.75. Stops should be set in place for any intraday retracements through $55.75. Positions can still be opened with advances from current levels or on hard bounces off support, when accompanied by good daily volume (1.7m or better). In addition, confirm strength in the Internet sector prior to opening new positions. The payable date should be announced after the Shareholders meeting of 4/28. If we are not forced out before hand, look to exit in front of the payable date, as is our policy.


Picked on March 30th @ $79.81 
Change since picked -20.62



CMRC - Commerce One $110.00 -9.50 (-30.00)

Commerce One and the B2B sector are having a rough week. Safeguard Scientific (SFE), a technology incubator, basically abandoned the group over the weekend and this has put more pressure on a weak sector. The comments stopped the B2B recovery dead in its tracks. By Tuesday afternoon, shares of CMRC had hit a low of $107. Away from the stock activity, CMRC agreed to a joint venture with Korean electronics firm, LG International and five other Korean companies on Monday. On Tuesday, just before the closing bell, CMRC signed a deal with several leading energy and petrochemical companies, including Royal/Dutch Shell (RD), BP Amoco (BPA) and Dow Chemical (DOW). After the bell, Commerce One signed a joint venture agreement with Schlumberger (SLB) to create a B2B exchange for the energy and petrochemical industries. The deals came late in the day and may help the stock tomorrow. Ariba (ARBA) is expected to announce earnings on Wednesday after the bell so this may help or hurt CMRC on Thursday. Commerce One is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 and the 2:1 split is also payable on 4/19, so we are looking for the momentum to pick up very soon. Until then, support is Tuesday's low of $107 with stronger support at the century mark. Set hard stops under $100 to limit losses. Resistance is the 5- dma at $122 and then the 10-dma at $135. Look for a bounce off of $107 or a move above $122 before opening new positions. Initiate new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit by 4/18 or on a close below $107.


Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked -11.00



KSS - Kohl's Corporation $106.00 -2.75 (-0.19)

Kohl's Corporation cooled a bit on Tuesday after it hit a record high on Monday. Volume has been average this week as the stock consolidates its recent move from $70. Support held up at the 5- dma, which gives us some confidence in the stock. We expect the momentum to return as we move closer to the 2:1 split, payable on 4/24. In the meantime, support is steady at the 5-dma, now $105. Psychological support is the century mark. Keep stops under $100 to lock in gains. Resistance is firm at $110 and then possibly $115. Look for a bounce off of $105 or a breakout above $110 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Exit no later than 4/20.


Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +6.44



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $64.25 -2.63 (-13.13)

The rally on Metromedia Fiber Network fell short on Monday. The stock touched its resistance level and then proceeded to fall with the rest of the NASDAQ, closing below its $70 support level. On Tuesday, MFNX hit resistance at $70 and then dipped to an intra-day low of $60 before recovering later in the session. Hopefully, $60 will become support. The 2:1 split is payable on 4/17 and there is only 3 trading days left on this play so we will close this play if the support breaks down at $60. We recommend placing hard stops under $60 to prevent further losses. Resistance is $70 and then $80. Open new positions on a bounce off of $62 or a breakout above $70 on strong volume. Confirm sector direction and market sentiment before initiating new plays. Plan to exit no later than 4/14 or on dip below support.


Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -33.81



NT - Nortel Networks $116.75 -5.05 (-8.19)

Nortel is hanging in there during round two of the April tech wreck. Insulating NT from some of the selling is a solid balance sheet, huge product line and a non-NASDAQ stock listing. Having said that, NT was negatively affected by the MOT selloff, due to its sizable wireless operations. Nortel released a new product today at the Telecom Americas 2000 Conference in Brazil. It is a satellite system that provides fixed wireless access (FWA) for Internet use. This solution could be of particular interest in developing South and Central American countries. NT also announced today that they will align with Blue Pumpkin to provide advanced solutions for the second wave of e-Business. Blue Pumpkin is a software solutions company concentrating on customer service via the Internet. NT fell through the first support level at $120. If you had followed our advice, you would not have bought the stock below this level. It is unfortunate because we felt that NT would be strong enough to at least consolidate in the $120-$130 range. We suggest that you drop this position if the stock trades under today's low. If the sock trades below $115.25 we could be testing $105 pretty quickly. Therefore, we suggest placing a stop at $114.75. If the stock gaps down a bunch on the opening, give it a little time to bounce back before exiting, in the hopes of getting a better price than the opening print. If we are not stopped out of NT, we will be looking to exit this position before the April 25th earnings date.


Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -20.50



NXLK - NEXTLINK Communications Inc. $100.75 -1.75 (-6.50)

A rush of enthusiasm in the broadband wireless sector has kept momentum in this group flourishing, and Nextlink has enjoyed the ride. The Company's tunnel vision-like focus on broadband technology has kept the stock as a top performer among the wireless group. But, as of recently, the shares have come under pressure from significant declines in the tech-laden NASDAQ composite. Initially, it looked probable that NXLK shares would likely rebound up near 52-week highs, but a continued sell-off in technology stocks has instead lead to further weakness. To protect against further declines, we are placing stops for intraday price moves below the 100-dma ($91.47), and for closes below the century mark. Future bounces off support, when combined with better than average volume could face initial resistance at the 50-dma ($109.31), before further recoveries occur. Look for weak volume (1.0m or less) to be a continued sign of price weakness, regardless of price advances. Design your entries carefully as stop levels are near current prices. Plan exits ahead of the payable date of 6/15.


Picked on April 6th @ $105.44 
Change since picked -4.69



NXTL - Nextel $128.25 -3.50 (-14.19)

Nextel rallied early on Tuesday morning but fell victim to the harsh round of selling on the NASDAQ by the end of the day. The stock hit an intra-day low of $124.50 but mounted a small recovery by the closing bell. In the news, their CFO has registered 138,000 shares for sale, putting additional pressure on NXTL. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/26 before the bell and the 2:1 split is payable on 6/6. We are looking for momentum to come back to the sector as we get closer to the earnings release. For now, there is light support at $124 with stronger support at the 100-dma, now at $120. Place hard stops just under $120 to limit losses. Resistance is now at the 10-dma at $140 and then the 20-dma at $145. Look for a bounce off of $124 or a move above $140 to initiate new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit prior to the earnings release or on an intra-day move below $120.


Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -20.38


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

A - Agilent Technologies $100.94 -6.19 (-21.06)

Volatility continues to reign supreme among the technology stocks. Agilent lost its quick 20% two-day gain in exactly two days. We still like the possibility that Agilent will outperform other technology shares when the recovery starts in earnest. MOT certainly had a negative affect on Agilent, but we believe that if the stock can hold on, it should rally in anticipation of a good earnings release on May 18th. There have been an incredible number of new product releases for Agilent in the past two days. This is further evidence of Agilent's strong leadership role in the test and measurement equipment field. Some of the new product announcements include; the introduction of a new ATM probe that allows for the seamless processing of ATM data into network operations and a new testing interface for the set-top box, digital VCR and digital TV products. One excuse for the selling of Agilent is the announcement that HWP will spin-off the remaining 85% stake it holds in Agilent to shareholders on May 2nd. The spin-off could cause some selling pressure because some HWP shareholders will probably dump the Agilent shares they receive. We are right back to where we were last Wednesday. There is critical support at the $100 level. We advise that you get out of the way if the stock drops below today's low of $99.50, and definitely close your position if the stock closes below $100 tomorrow. If we get a bounce, resistance will again be found at $110 and $120. If Agilent can hang in there at current levels, we will be exiting this position before the May 2nd spin-off.


Picked on April 6th @ $105.00
Change since picked -4.06



ADBE - Adobe Systems $119.50 +2.31 (-5.50)

Adobe Systems saw some profit taking mixed in with some general market weakness on Monday. However, on Tuesday, the stock closed in positive territory despite a big sell-off on the NASDAQ. The Company just launched several new products that are driving the stock right now. Adobe has their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/26, when shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement in the near future or shortly after the Annual Meeting. On the technical side, there is light support at $116 with stronger support on the 10-dma at $112. Set stops under $112 to minimize losses. Resistance has formed at $125. If the stock breaks out, the next level of resistance may be $130. Open new positions on a bounce off of $116 or a breakout above $125. Initiate new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Exit following the Annual meeting, or in the session following a split announcement.


Picked on April 6th @ $114.63  
Change since picked +4.88



BRCM - Broadcom $176.63 -17.88 (-31.13)

Broadcom was hurt by the Motorola (MOT) earnings announcement on Monday night. BRCM provides broadband equipment to MOT and the outlook for MOT was not great this year. However, MOT cited rising component costs (on BRCM parts) as the major problem, even though demand was strong. Is this really good news? We'll find out on 4/18 when the Company announces earnings. They also have their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27, when the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares. We are looking for a split announcement either with earnings or following the Annual Meeting. Until then, light support is $170, with stronger support at $166. Set hard stops under $166, as we will drop this play if it dips below this level. Resistance has come down to $190 and then the 5-dma at $198. Start new plays on a bounce off of $170 or a move above $190 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. We recommend an exit in front of earnings.


Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -36.19



CPTH - Critical Path, Inc. $73.12 (-7.88) (-9.94)

Critical Path, Inc. follows the path of least resistance. At least these last two days, that is the case. Even a #1 Rating by Forbes Magazine as the Fastest Growing Technology Company was not enough for this international end-to-end Internet messaging provider to fight the NASDAQ's decline. Monday morning CPTH bucked the trend, headed higher and challenged its resistance at $85.00. However, less than average volume wouldn't keep this stock in the green for long as it soon traded lower to the close. Today the stock gapped down to $76.00 at the open and stayed the course the rest of the day. We had hoped that based on the past earnings, CPTH would have a good run up to that date, scheduled for 4/20. We are placing a hard stop just under $70.00 and if the stock trades below that intra-day, we will exit this play. Resistance is still up at $85.00. Should the stock start an upward climb again, we will still exit ahead of earnings and look for a split announcement at that time.


Picked on April 9th @ $83.06
Change since picked -9.94



EMC - EMC Corporation $129.88 -5.13 (-14.13)

As the baby boomer segment of the population begins to retire, EMC is finding efficient methods to help record the future medical needs of this group. The Date General division of EMC announced on Monday that they plan on implementing a complete family of EMC Symmetrix Enterprise Storage solutions for the healthcare industry. The strategy will allow EMC to develop E- Infrastructure systems that will allow electronic medical record (EMR) and point of care solutions. Although positive news for the Company, EMC shares sold off this weak in line with a broad decline in technology issues. Friday's climb toward all time highs was met by swift resistance at the 52-week high mark ($145.44), forming a possible double-top formation. With this possibility in mind, we need to be very selective in our entries. Light support was witnessed by today's bounce near the 30-dma ($129.33), while heavier support should likely follow at $125. Given the recent slide in technology issues, we are recommending that stops be placed if continued weakness pulls prices below $125. Keep in mind that strong reversals off these support areas will still represent good entry points. Look for resistance to be at $140 and again at $145.44 (all-time high). We'll plan our exits prior to the earning date of 4/18.


Note: EMC earnings have been revised from 4/26 to 4/18.

Picked on March 21st @ $135.13 
Change since picked -5.25



GLW - Corning Incorporated $170.25 -18.94 (-25.75)

Corning's impressive list of acquisitions continues to enhance the future prospects and leadership role of this fiber optics company. One of the Company's most impressive additions was that of Oak Industries Lastertron segment. This purchase, which will allow GLW to produce advanced pump lasers for optical network transmission, should strengthen its position in the envisioned future of light optical networks. The Company's continued expansion has foreboded well for momentum plays in GLW. As for the stock's recent performance, last week's recovery was short lived, when prices found stiff resistance near the double century mark ($200). Combine this resistance with a weak market in technology issues, and you'll find GLW back near the $170 mark. With intra-day volume verifying that most off today's volume was mainly on the sell-side, we are recommending that hard stops be placed for intra-day breaks below $165.00 (today's low). However, if a strong rebound follows a bounce off current levels, then expect some resistance at the 50-dma ($185.00) and heavier at the double century level. If prices don't drop below $165, then we'll plan on holding our positions through the Shareholders meeting of 4/27.


Picked on March 24th @ $214.38 
Change since picked -44.13



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $145.81 -1.44 (-10.19)

Advances at the 52-week high mark are keeping Hewlett-Packard shares an interesting target on our radar screen. Despite HWP's near term decline from all time highs, we continue to see the stock hold up better than several other related technology stocks. As for its performance this week, all signs were go for HWP to run higher. Looking back at Friday's high ($156.00), we're now able to confirm that sizable resistance remains at the stock's 52-week high level ($155.50 to $156.00). Given this resistance and the possibility of a double top, we're keeping a close eye on price reactions from support. Today's bounce off daily lows provided a good sign that initial support should be felt at $140.88, bolstered by both the 10 and 20-dma's ($140.52 and $140.89). Due to the significance of this area, we suggest putting stops below $140.00 to guard against further possible declines. However, if a price run can be sustained off a strong bounce of $140 support, we'll expect to see resistance at Friday's high ($156.00), prior to further advances. We'll keep exits in place the day ahead of earnings, unless an announcement comes before.


Picked on March 16th @ $133.00 
Change since picked +12.81



INKT - Inktomi $135.06 -26.19 (-45.82)

Fear is back and Internet stocks are under attack again. INKT looked like it was going to be one of the Internet survivors due to its business model. One that allows it to succeed as long as new commerce sites are being built and its search engine is still increasing in use. The one main factor that seems to be hurting INKT is the fact that the Company is not yet profitable. Also having a negative affect on the stock is the continued fallout from the Yahoo! earnings, even though INKT seemed to have shaken off those concerns with the late week rally. INKT will be reporting April 18th, and the sentiment seems to be that INKT will have to have a blowout quarter to advance after the announcement. High PE and no PE stocks are particularly vulnerable to selloffs. Inktomi did have some good news today, unveiling its third generation search engine, which includes an index of the most comprehensive and relevant documents on the Internet. We are not going to mess around with this stock too much. If the stock trades below today's low of $135, we highly recommend getting out of the stock by placing a stop at $134 7/8. Bottom line, if the stock does not start heading up right away, we want to be out. If there is a severe gap down on the open, give the stock a chance to bounce for a half an hour before getting out. You do not want to be ripped off. If INKT heads higher tomorrow, look for resistance at $150. If we are not stopped out, we will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings report.


Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked -22.94



INTC - Intel Corporation $130.75 -0.38 (-6.06)

One of the main factors that have kept Intel the leading manufacturer of computer chips has been Corporate Management's ability to correctly assume current and future trends in semiconductor production. Speaking at a conference in Tokyo on Monday, Intel's CEO Craig Barrett, stated, "Given the strength in the information technology (IT) economy… we're liable to see a shortage of semiconductors across the board in the year 2000 and perhaps next year". To meet this demand, INTC will invest $6 billion this year to increase chip production capacity for computer chips. This investment should prove to reap higher earnings for Intel in the future. In spite of the news release, Intel shares sold off in accord with a sizeable NASDAQ decline on Monday. Today's opening gapped down into previous consolidation and finished the day at $130.75, down 0.28%. An intra-day bounce off the 30-dma ($128.07) was confirmed by good volume and represents our initial level of support. Secondary support off the 50-dma ($120) is a requirement for our continued play of INTC shares. Stops should be in place for price moves below the 50-dma mark. Look for hard bounces off support to find resistance at the $140 mark, and higher still at the 52-week high of $145.38. With these hard bounces off support, look to open positions. Design an exit before earnings on 4/18, as per our normal policy.


Picked on March 19th @ $129.88 
Change since picked +0.87



LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $105.25 -9.94 (-14.25)

When demand exceeds supply, generally stock prices soar. This has resulted in Lexmark's phenomenal momentum run. The only problem with the supply vs. demand issue is that Lexmark is fighting to keep up with the overwhelming demand for their highly affordable printers. To cope with this demand, the Company's new facilities in Mexico and the Philippines should help to improve printer production in the second half of this year. As for the stock, Friday's run up to our stated resistance mark of $120 proved to be too solid for an immediate advance. Today showed further weakness in the stock as prices gapped down below the 50-dma ($115.84), on heavier volume. Based on this weakness, we are placing a stop for any intraday moves below the century mark. Be aware that future advances from the century level would form a double bottom, which could transform the decline into a very bullish pattern. If this scenario does unfold, then look for prices to once again test the $120 resistance level, prior to running higher. Look to open positions off strong bounces from support when combined with good daily volume (1.3m or better). A split announcement may follow the Shareholders meeting of 4/27, we'll keep you posted.


Picked on April 4th @ $106.25 
Change since picked -1.00



ORCL- Oracle Corporation $77.37 (-5.12) (-9.76)

After receiving a standing ovation, often the polite thing to do is take a seat. Last week's accolades for Oracle Corporation included the Government's highest award for software security certification and recognition in Goldman Sachs elite "Super Seven" portfolio. This week, ORCL has been seated in the company of many a NASDAQ stock. We mentioned in Sunday's write up that run-ups on light volume often retest support and that is just what ORCL has done, bouncing off support today at $76.00. Monday's opening challenged resistance at $88.00, only to give way to the mightier hand of the NASDAQ. ORCL now sits on a very import support level. A move below the 50-dma at $73.00 will trigger our hard stop and we will have to say so long for now. Down volume increase by 25% today with 35.5 millions shares traded. If the stock can hold here at $76.00 and the NASDAQ can cooperate, and Larry Ellison the CEO doesn't suddenly die, (the "what if" scare of online message boards), then this would be a good entry point. The only near term positive event is still the shareholders meeting scheduled for 5/10 with a vote to increase shares. However, as stated, we are out if things worsen and the stock trades below $73.


Picked on April 9th @ $87.13
Change since picked -9.76



QCOM - Qualcomm $137.44 -3.75 (-14.81)

What at first appeared to be good news for QCOM, Motorola's negative conference call, eventually drove the shares of QCOM along with the rest of the wireless sector lower. MOT guided analysts lower for the rest of the year partly due to reduced expectations for high-end wireless products. The big question is whether QCOM is suffering from the same problems that MOT is, or are they benefiting from MOT's problems? We probably will not know until QCOM reports their earnings on April 18th. It is time to protect ourselves against the possibility of QCOM dropping all the way back down to the bottom of its 2000 trading range in the $120-$125 area. The 50-DMA is now sitting at $137 1/4. If QCOM closes below this price tomorrow, we will be dropping this play. On an intraday basis, you should protect yourself by placing a stop just below today's low print of $133.94. 4000 showed some support for the NASDAQ today, but a drop below that support and the selling could get ugly and we want to be out of the way if that does happen. If QCOM can hold on over the next two days, we will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings report.


Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked  -17.37



TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $76.00 -2.19 (-18.50)

Tumbleweed is struggling again. After a few positive days, the stock took back everything and more. The stock trades on momentum and news. This week, we had neither. On Monday, the stock fell with the Internet sector as people panic out of high-multiple stocks. Tuesday, TMWD traded in-line with the NASDAQ as it hit an intra-day high of $80, fell to a low of $70 in the heat of the sell-off, and recovered a little at the close. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 (unconfirmed) and we are looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release. For now, there is support at the 100-dma ($75) with stronger support at $70. Set hard stops under $70 as protection. Resistance is now $80 and then $90. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $70 or a move above $80. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit if TMWD dips below $70 intra-day, or closes below the 100-dma. If not, exit in front of earnings.


Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked -6.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

None

SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $169.50 -10.94 (-27.00)

We are out of here and are happy to break even. If you have been following our suggestions to take profits quickly, you may have done better than just breaking even on this extremely volatile stock. You would have protected profits if you had stopped out just below the $185 support mentioned in Sunday's play update. Earnings are tomorrow and we will continue to monitor all of the developments concerning CHKP.


Picked on March 30th @ $169.50

Profit/Loss = 0.00 (0%)
Best Profit = +30.50 (+18%)


 


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