NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
ANEN - Anaren Microwave, Inc. $115.38 (+19.50)
Anaren Microwave, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells
complex microwave signal distribution networks and components for
the wireless communications, satellite communications and defense
electronics markets. The company's history spans 30 years of
service both in the U.S. and abroad. When we last commented on
Anaren, we noted that we would like to see volume increase over
100K per day...VIOLA. Volume is not all that has been active
lately at Anaren. In the last 45 days, Anaren has approved a 3:2
stock split with an effective pay date of 6/9/00; announced the
acquisition of RF Power Components, and filed for a secondary
offering of 1.8 million shares to be issued in April. We begin
initiation of this split run play with both a positive yet
cautious outlook. The positive factors include increased volume
averaging 126,000 shares. Friday's closing volume was up 40% from
that to 185K, with a new closing high of $115.38. On 3/28, Banc
of America initiated coverage with a strong buy rating and a
price target of $130. Additionally, earnings are right around the
corner on 4/19. Fundamental investors should be pleased to know
that Anaren holds high marks with regard to Earnings Per Share
(EPS) and Relative Strength (RS). Both are ranked in the top 5%
compared to all other stocks according to Investors Business
Daily's rating system. Technically, the chart is bullish also,
with some light support at just under $100.00 but firmer support
at about $95.00. At this point, we feel that further upside would
be driven by earnings. Our note of caution with this play would
be the two recent news events surrounding the acquisition and the
secondary offering. Both of these types of announcements can slow
investor interest. However, as of yet we haven't seen this, but
we should be aware that it exists. Going forward, the upward
march should be accompanied by rising volume. Stops should be
placed just under $100.00. We hold true to our belief that it is
better to exit prior to earnings to avoid possible rapid decay.
We will exit this play by 4/18. After that, we will look at the
possibility of re-entry for the split run. Since this is the
Company's first split, we do not have any history to go by. We
will continue to monitor the stock for further opportunities and
entry points as we head into the split in June.
Picked on April 9th @ $115.38
Change since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
CPTH - Critical Path, Inc. $83.06 (-1.94)
Rated #1 Fastest Growing Technology Company in 1999 by Forbes
Magazine, we add San Francisco based Critical Path, Inc. to our
split candidate list. This international end-to-end Internet
messaging provider with more than 50 million customers has reason
to boast. Revenues for 1999 grew +1,701% to $16.2 million and
2000 estimates aren't too shabby either, with expectations of a
growth rate of 624%. The company has 43.1 million shares
outstanding and 150 million authorized, enough to effect a stock
split. A possible announcement date might be with earnings, which
are less than 2 weeks away, on 4/20. Investors may have decided
that February's run-up from $66 to a high of $119.50 was good
reason to take profits. Thus the stock has retreated to a firm
support level back at $65. Buyers came back in on 4/5 and the
stock rose +6.87 on 50% increased volume. With such lofty
expectations for FY 2000 earnings, we would expect volume to pick
up going into earnings, preferably over 825K. Some resistance is
just overhead at $85 and then again at $91. A close on good
volume above either level would be a positive sign. You should
know by now our position on earnings. Even with expectations as
high as these, we still recommend exiting the play before 4/20.
Can a company announce good earnings and still sell off? Yahoo!
it can. I mean, you bet it can. Should an announcement come with
earnings, we will reevaluate Critical Path for split run
opportunities. Good Luck!
Picked on April 9th @ $83.06
Change since picked 0.00
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ORCL - Oracle Corporation $87.13 (+9.05)
"And the winner is.........Oracle Corporation!" Of what you ask?
This week, Oracle Corporation, the B to B computer software
developer and manufacturer, was bestowed with a Medal of Honor,
so to speak. The U.S. Government awarded Oracle its highest
rating of security certification for software. This
certification, known as the Federal Information Processing
Standard (FIPS), recognized Oracle as the hands-down leader
passing 12 independent security evaluations for various aspects
of data security. Other good news of late came from Goldman
Sachs, who holds Oracle in its prestigious "Super Seven"
portfolio, which makes up their core holding of technology
stocks. We are adding Oracle as a split candidate in expectation
of a forth-coming announcement. On May 10th, the company will ask
shareholders to increase the number of shares from 4 billion to
11 billion. The company has a long split history with 7 to date.
Current volume is about average at 23 million shares traded. We
would like to see volume increase in order to pierce the
immediate overhead resistance level of $87-$89. Stocks that run
up on decreasing volume tend to retreat to support and try again.
We find those support levels at $81 and then back at $76.
Earnings are a ways off, scheduled for sometime around June 13th.
Oracle may enjoy the "drafting" effect of positive earnings that
comes from the software sector as a whole. We would enter this
play with a strong close over $90 or a bounce off of $76. Place
stops just below $75 should the NASDAQ or the sector decide to
retest out recent lows.
Picked on April 9th @ $87.13
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
APH - Amphenol Corporation $118.63 (+16.38)
Amphenol manufactures connectors, cable and interconnect systems
for electronics, cable television, telecommunications, aerospace,
transportation and industrial applications. Their products
include fiber optic interconnect products, chip card acceptor
interconnect devices and industrial interconnect products. Shares
of APH hit another all-time high of $120.25 on Friday. Volume was
heavy as the momentum picks as we move closer to the Company's
earnings release and the 2:1 split. They have already pre-
announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but the actual
numbers will be out on 4/19. However, the split is payable on
4/25, so the stock may suffer following the earnings announcement
since a surprise is already factored in. Going forward, APH has
support at $110 with additional support at the 5-dma currently at
$107. Place stops under $107 to lock in gains. Resistance has
become $120, just under Friday's high. Further resistance may
show up at $130. Use a bounce off of $110 or a breakout above
$120 to open new positions. Initiate new plays on heavy volume,
only in a rising market. We recommend an exit prior to the
earnings release.
Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +16.38
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BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $97.38 (+24.00)
It appears that e-commerce is here to stay and if commerce
companies wish to stay competitive, they may want to use the
array of software solutions provided by BEA Systems. The whole
point of e-commerce is to provide a seamless platform for
transactions and that is exactly what BEAS does. The story for
BEAS is great, but there has been pressure on the stock recently
because it is one of those companies that has a lot of promise
but is barely profitable. The fact that it is profitable does
give it a fundamental advantage over a lot of stocks that got
left behind during the correction. BEAS announced their second
2:1 split back in February. The payable date has been set for
April 24th. It appears that the stock is attempting to rally
back to a reasonable split price. Like we said on Thursday,
bottom fishing is a dangerous game, but so far it looks like we
have hooked a big one. Perhaps helping the stock to rally late in
the week was the announcement that Delta Airlines will be using
BEAS software for their rebuilt ticketing and travel services Web
site. This was, obviously, a high profile contract for BEAS.
After three straight days of higher highs coming off of Tuesday's
washout, what's next? We see some resistance right at $100,
followed by $107. If the NASDAQ momentum continues, BEAS should
be able to test these levels. There is very little support at
Friday's low of $92.19, followed by $75. We recommend that you
do not let the stock selloff too much before taking profits.
Nervousness can creep back into this market very quickly. We
will be exiting this position before the April 24th split date.
Picked on April 6th @ $88.31
Change since picked +9.07
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CHINA - China.com Corporation $69.69 (-11.31)
We are not out of the woods yet with this play but things are
looking a bit better. China.com is another Internet Company that
seems to have limitless possibilities but shaky fundamentals.
Companies such as these have been the hardest hit during the
correction. Despite this, the story is still a good one.
China.com could quite possibly control the Internet "gateway" to
the largest potential marketplace in the world. The advantages
of this position became more lucrative following China's
acceptance into the World Trade Organization. CHINA attempted to
strengthen its hold over the Chinese Internet marketplace by
announcing two acquisitions. The first involves a 100% takeover
of CASTnet, an Internet and Intranet software solutions company.
The second was a 35% stake in Stame.com, a highly popular virtual
community and gaming site. Also on the plus side, CHINA will be
enjoying a 2:1 stock split. There is a shareholder's meeting set
for April 28th to determine the payable date. 70% corrections
are a pretty ugly spectacle and that is exactly what CHINA has
suffered, bottoming out at $47.50 before staging its bounce
rally. The stock has been moving higher for three days now from
understandably severely oversold levels. It would not take much
for CHINA to roll back over. There just does not seem to be much
conviction for the secondary Internet stocks. That said, we will
let the comeback run its course as long as the stock can keep
stair stepping back with higher highs. Be very cautious if the
stock drops below any previous day's lows. Friday's low was
$66.75. If the rally continues, the stock should find some
resistance at $75 followed by $86. We will be exiting this
position before the payable date or the May 15th earnings
announcement, whichever comes first.
Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -10.12
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CMRC - Commerce One $140.00 (-9.25)
Commerce One provides business-to-business electronic commerce
solutions that link buyers and suppliers of indirect goods and
services over the Internet. The Company has developed the
Commerce Chain Solution to automate the procurement cycle between
multiple buyers and suppliers. On Friday, the stock continued to
bounce from its $100 low on Tuesday. Volume is declining as we
move higher, which is a minor short-term concern. CMRC appears to
have put in a bottom this week as we are now just 8 trading days
away from the 2:1 split payable date and their earnings
announcement on 4/19. In the meantime, there is support at $130
with stronger support at the 5-dma, now up to $126. Set stops
under $126 to protect profits. Resistance is $150 and then the
10-dma at $155. Start new plays on a bounce off of $120 or a move
above $130 on strong volume. Confirm B2B sector momentum and
market sentiment before opening new positions. Exit no later than
4/18.
Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked +19.00
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KSS - Kohl's Corporation $106.19 (+3.69)
Kohl's Corporation owns and operates 260 family oriented,
specialty department stores located primarily in 22 states. All
of the Company's stores carry similar product lines in order to
give KSS purchasing power and economies of scale. Kohl's competes
with large department stores by selling major brand name products
at lower prices than the department stores. The retail sector is
in the sweet spot right now as bad news for the sector (slowing
sales) is still good for the group because it means that the Fed
will stop tightening. The group is also trading at low multiples
and benefits from any flight to quality. We are looking for the
momentum to continue going into to the 2:1 split, payable on
4/24. Until then, support is up to the 5-dma, now at $103 with
psychological support at the century mark. Place stops under $100
as protection. Resistance is now $110 and then $115. Initiate new
positions on a bounce off of $103 or a breakout above $110. Start
new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit
by 4/20.
Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +6.63
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $77.38 (-19.38)
Metromedia Fiber Network maintains fiber-optic networks in major
metropolitan areas such as Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia
and Washington, DC. The Company offers unlimited, un-metered
bandwidth at a fixed cost. They are currently expanding into 51
North American cities and plan to enter 16 European markets. The
stock is recovering from the huge drop on Tuesday. On Friday,
MFNX continued its rebound, hitting an intra-day high of $80 and
closing above its 5-dma on 2 x ADV. Momentum is coming back as we
move closer to the 4/17 payable date of the 2:1 split, only 6
trading days away. As for the stock, support is now the 5-dma at
$74 with stronger support at $70. Set stops under $70 to limit
losses. Resistance is now up to $80 and then the 10-dma at $85.
Look for a bounce off of $74 or a breakout above $80 to initiate
new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. Plan to exit no later than 4/14.
Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -20.69
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NT - Nortel Networks $124.94 (-2.88)
Last week's schizophrenic action left Nortel's stock right back
to where it was before. Call it a wash. Call it a fresh start.
NT is a giant telecommunications equipment company. It is kind of
a Canadian version of Lucent and Cisco with a leading role in the
expansion of fiber optic communications infrastructure. This is
a solid growth area for the Company and one of the main reasons
why NT has performed so well recently. NT announced a 2:1 split
back in January. We are still waiting for an announcement for
the next shareholder's meeting. A payable date for the split
will be set at that time. NT has a solid earnings record and a
nearly unparalleled product line, which leads us to believe that
NT could continue to be a core holding among institutions. Those
types of investment inflows should help NT to keep working its
way higher. One key news item last week was the earnings warning
that came from Tellabs, a chief competitor for NT. The fact that
NT did not sell off in sympathy is further indication of the
strong interest the investment community has in NT. Also last
week, in an attempt to streamline their operations, NT sold
several manufacturing facilities to Solectron. The move will
help NT to continue to concentrate on product development. We
were very encouraged to see NT climb back up into the old
consolidation range of $120-$130. This price area provided a
nice base for the stock's last breakout rally to $144 and change.
We think you can keep buying the stock here, as long as it holds
above $120, in the hopes that a move above $130 will result in
another attempt at the old highs. We will be exiting this
position before the April 25th earnings release.
Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -12.31
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NXLK - Nextlink Communications Inc. $107.25 (-16.43)
Nextlink provides broadband communications services for
businesses. The Company's growing fiber optic network currently
services most major U.S. cities through its 28 fiber optic
facilities. The stock is making a decent recovery after a rough
ride earlier in the week. On Friday, shares of NXLK were as high
as $112.50 in the morning before reversing course. It did finish
the day slightly higher and support held throughout the day,
which helps investor confidence. The Company announced a 2:1
split on 2/16, payable on 6/15 and earnings are coming up in late
April. We expect NXLK to gain momentum as we move closer to the
earnings release and the split. Going forward, there is light
support at $105 with strong support at the century mark. Set
stops under $100 to limit losses. Resistance remains the 50-dma
at $109 with heavier resistance at $120. Look for a bounce off
of $105 or a breakout above $109 on heavy volume to initiate new
plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before
opening new positions. The split is not payable until June but
the Company is set to announce earnings later this month (April
26th-unconfirmed), so we recommend an exit in front of earnings.
After they come out, we will revisit the stock for a possible re-
entry for the split run.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.44
Change since picked +1.81
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NXTL - Nextel $142.44 (-5.81)
Nextel is a leading provider of digital and wireless
communications services in the United States. Their digital
network is one of the largest integrated wireless communications
systems in the United States. The Company also owns several
mobile radio spectrum holdings in all of the top 50 U.S.
metropolitan areas. Shares of NXTL were flying on Friday, gaining
$15.88 on average volume. The Company is expected to announce
earnings on 4/26, before the bell, while the 2:1 split is not
payable until 6/6, so most of the recent action is related to an
earnings run rather than the split. On the technical side,
support is now the 5-dma at $135 with stronger support at $130.
Place stops under $130 as protection. Resistance is the 20-dma at
$146 and then $150. Open new positions on a bounce off of $135 or
a move above $146 on strong volume. Confirm market direction and
sector momentum before starting new plays. We recommend exiting
prior to the earnings release with possible re-entry following
the post-earnings depression.
Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -6.19
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
A - Agilent Technologies $122.00 (+19.00)
Having been successfully spun off from its parent, HWP, back in
December, it has mostly been green lights and straight ahead for
this major developer and manufacturer of test and measurement
equipment. Although the Company makes products for many
different sectors, as wide ranging as Healthcare and Chemicals,
perhaps the most important sector the Company makes products for
is the Networking sector. With billions being invested to expand
the World's networking capabilities, a fair amount must be
allocated to testing and maintaining these systems and Agilent
has the products to do just that. HWP has set a date of May 2nd
to spin off its 84% stake in Agilent to shareholders. This news
sparked a huge rally in Agilent. It will be interesting to see
what affect this has on the share price of Agilent. Will
shareholders keep the stock or sell, only time will tell. But in
the meantime, we like the split possibilities for Agilent. The
stock came public at roughly $40 a share and has rallied
substantially. Triple digit stock prices are often a catalyst
for many NYSE stocks to split. The Company has plenty of
authorized shares to enact a split. Earnings are not until May
18th. With the spin-off coming, it is possible that the Company
will wait until the earnings announcement before declaring a
split. In the meantime, we will trade the stock based upon its
strong technical and fundamental characteristics. In our initial
write-up, we stated that a move above $105 could take us back up
to resistance at $120. The stock not only took out resistance
but closed above it, which is very bullish and it looks like the
stock could rally to the next level of resistance in the low
$130's, as long as it can hold up here. We will be exiting this
position before the May 2nd spin-off or after a split
announcement, should that occur first.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.00
Change since picked +17.00
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ADBE - Adobe Systems $125.00 (+13.69)
Adobe Systems provides publishing, graphic design and imaging
software for Internet and print production. Their products enable
users to create and deliver images and documents on all print and
electronic media. The stock hit an all-time high of $125 on
Friday as the NASDAQ continued its rebound. ADBE closed right on
the high, which is usually a good sign. The Company has its
Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/26, when the shareholders will be
voting on an increase in authorized shares. We are looking for a
split announcement out of the meeting. For now, ADBE has support
at $120 and then $115. Set stops under $115 to lock in a profit.
The stock broke through resistance on Friday so new resistance
may be $130 or at $5 increments above $130. Look for a bounce off
of $120 or a breakout above $130 on heavy volume to initiate new
plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before
opening new positions. We recommend an exit following the Annual
meeting, or in the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 6th @ $114.63
Change since picked +10.38
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BRCM - Broadcom $207.75 (-35.12)
Broadcom develops highly integrated silicon solutions that enable
broadband digital data transmission over the current
communications infrastructures. The Company's products are used
in a wide variety of communications products including set-top
boxes, networking equipment and cable modems. The stock is slowly
regaining strength after a big dip to the low $150's earlier this
week. BRCM has now made 4 consecutive higher lows and it closed
above $200 every day last week, creating a springboard to bounce
on. In the news, the stock has been selected to be a part of the
Merrill Lynch Broadband HOLDRs (BDH). This should provide some
long-term stability for the stock. Broadcom is expected to
announce earnings on 4/18, followed by their Annual Shareholder
Meeting on 4/27, when the shareholders will vote on an increase
in authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement
either with earnings or following the Annual Meeting. As for the
technicals, light support has come in at $202, bolstered by
psychological support at $200 and then $190. Set stops under $190
as protection. Resistance remains at $213 and then the 20-dma at
$219. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $200 or a move above
$213. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. Plan to exit in front of the earnings announcement.
Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -5.06
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CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $196.48 (+25.41)
Investors are falling all over themselves to get back into Check
Point. It is understandable why. CHKP leads what is bound to be
a growing sector, Security Software. If consumers are going to
continue their new habits of Internet shopping, then they are
going to want to have the belief that it is safe to send their
personal financial info over the Web. This year has seen several
headline grabbing news items about cyber-theft of credit card
numbers. Anybody who wants to do business over the Web will need
to protect their customers and this creates a huge marketplace
for CHKP for what may be years to come. The first split in the
Company's history was back in December when the stock was trading
at $192.81. Having recently climbed back up to that price, CHKP
is a serious candidate to split its shares again. CHKP will have
to increase the number of authorized shares before splitting
again. Earnings are coming out Wednesday, so please be sure you
exit this position before then. It is entirely possible that we
could get a nice run in this stock on Monday and Tuesday in
anticipation of a good earnings report and possible split
announcement. You can never underestimate momentum in either
direction with this stock. CHKP sliced right through what we
thought would be pretty good short-term resistance at $185, and
settled just below the $200 level. An anticipatory rally could
easily take out $200 and move the stock to $232, which should
provide the next major point of resistance. If the NASDAQ rally
falters early next week, look for CHKP to test support at $185.
Since we will be exiting this position on Tuesday (earnings are
coming out Wednesday morning) you do not want to let the stock
drop too much. Nothing wrong with taking a nice profit.
Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked +26.98
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EMC - EMC Corporation $144.00 (+17.00)
"Mind the gap". A British expression meaning watch your step when
boarding the train. In the case of software storage giant EMC, we
don't mind the gaps at all. In fact, this week's two gaps helped
boost share prices higher by +18.38 to Friday's close of $144.38.
Moving averages have been key as of late with EMC. Tuesday's
pandemonium saw a bounce off the 100-dma at $110.00, which was
followed by Wednesday's testing of the 50-dma at $121.00.
Thursday, we closed right at the 10-dma at about $133.00.
Friday's gap open to $136.00 saw follow through all day, closing
just under the 52 week high at $145.44. Volume is critical now to
push the stock to a new high. We still want to see 7.0 M or
better to confirm direction. Support is back at the 10-dma at
about $133. A new high on good volume would be a good entry
point, but still plan to exit before earnings on 4/26.
Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked +8.88
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GLW - Corning Incorporated $196.00 (+2.00)
Silicon is one of the most abundant elements on Earth and Corning
is the master of making the other key product from it, glass.
The optical communications era is upon us and GLW has no shortage
of business due to the insatiable demand for faster
communications with ever increasing bandwidth. To stay at the
forefront of this technology, GLW announced the strategic
acquisition of NetOptix, a thin film filter maker, for $2
billion. It was also announced last week that GLW will spend $50
million to build its second optical manufacturing facility. This
is yet another clear signal that business remains robust for
Corning. It has been a really long time since GLW has split it
shares. Considering the elevated share price, the first split in
eight years could be coming soon. There is a shareholder's
meeting scheduled for April 27th. There will be a vote to
increase the number of authorized shares, which will enable the
Company to announce a split. GLW certainly was not immune from
all of the selling earlier last week as the stock spiked down to
a low of $141 on Tuesday before staging a solid three-day
recovery, nestling just below the psychologically important $200
level. This price should provide some fairly stiff resistance
for the stock. We are encouraged by the fact that GLW was able
to close right near its high on Friday's close. This is unusual
because most traders prefer to be flat for the weekend but seemed
unwilling to part with their GLW positions. If there is some
early morning strength in GLW, look for it to climb above $200
and stay there before becoming confident that the stock can make
a run to the next resistance level of $226.44, the old high.
Support is all the back down to Friday's low of $178. A bounce
off of that price could be a buying opportunity. We will be
exiting this position no later than just before the April 24th
earnings date.
Picked on March 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -18.38
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HWP - Hewlett Packard $154.00 (+21.94)
WOW! What a week Hewlett Packard has had. Up +20.00 this week
since Tuesday's low of $129. The stock's consolidation, which
began in early March, met with its resistance level Friday.
Friday's close is the second attempt since 3/9 to break through
$155.00. Volume on Friday was slightly below average at 3.2
million shares. Shareholders received good news after Friday's
close, as the company set the distribution date for the dividend
from the Agilent spin-off. Shareholders will receive 0.37 shares
of Agilent on June 2 for each of their HWP shares. The stock
reacted positively in after hours trading, moving up as high as
$156. As previously mentioned, strong volume (4.5 million or
better) would trigger further interest to the upside. Support is
back at $140 unless the stock can hold here at this level and
consolidate. Exit before earnings in mid May unless a split
announcement comes first.
Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +21.00
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INKT - Inktomi $180.88 (-14.12)
Just when you thought the party was over for Internet stocks, a
few selected issues came roaring back at the end of last week and
fortunately, we own one of them with our position in Inktomi.
The big news item last week that sent ripples throughout the
Internet sector was Yahoo!'s earnings announcement. Yahoo!
shares dropped and missed out on the big NASDAQ rally despite
reporting excellent numbers and receiving several price target
upgrades. As impressive as INKT's comeback has been, the stock
was still down for the week and we suspect that there is a little
nervousness ahead of the Company's earnings report due to the
negative reaction to Yahoo!'s numbers. Earnings are due April
18th. More caution is advised because INKT is still not a
profitable company and we suspect that the biggest winners of the
next rally will be stocks of companies that have solid
fundamentals. It is entirely possible that INKT will announce
another split soon, and perhaps that is why the stock has been
able to catch back much of its early week losses. INKT is
trading at a price that is above the $145.00 price the stock was
trading at when the last split was announced back in early
December. The Company has enough authorized shares to enact a
2:1 split. Friday saw some good technical action for INKT with
the stock closing on its high for the day and just barely above
the downtrend line. A little follow through on Monday and INKT
could easily rally to resistance at $195. It could take a few
days of solid market action for the stock to take out the
important psychological $200 price. We really want to see this
follow through with the MACD still negative and OBV slipping,
indicating INKT could trade sideways for a little while, perhaps
even down. Protect your profits and look to exit before the
earnings are released on the 18th.
Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked +22.88
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INTC - Intel Corporation $136.81 (+4.87)
Have you ever felt like you were being watched? If that kind of
feeling makes you uneasy, then you don't want to become an
industry leader in silicon-based semiconductors like Intel. Often
referred to as a barometer to lead the NASDQ earnings, all
semiconductor analysts' eyes are now fixed on Intel. Earnings are
just over a week away, scheduled for 4/18. Being watched has been
good for INTC this week, despite Tuesday's mayhem. The stock
closed up (+4.87) for the week on average volume of 25.6 million
shares. The consolidation previously mentioned between $125-134
was conquered Friday, but not by much. We would like a more
convincing victory of a higher level from an industry leader.
Resistance is now at the 52-week high of $144.13. Volume is the
buzzword now; we need good volume in excess of 25 million shares
before entering any new plays. Support is back at the 30-dma at
$126.00. Below that, it's way back at the 50-dma at $117.85. Our
strategy, as always, is to plan an exit before the close on
earnings day, 4/18.
Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +6.93
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LXK - Lexmark International Group $119.50 (+13.75)
By closing up on the week, LXK is further proof that perhaps the
best place to be invested this quarter is in major NYSE
technology companies with solid growth rates and steady profits.
Printers provide a wonderful business for LXK, not to mention the
continuous supplies necessary to run printers. By constantly
introducing new products, LXK has managed to capture a 40% share
of the printer market. A 20% growth going forward seems to be
feasible for this excellently managed company. It was one year
ago when Lexmark announced a 2:1 split with the stock trading at
$120.88 and with the stock currently trading at similar levels,
another split seems eminently possible. We will keep checking
the wires for any announcements for a B of D meeting, which may
signal that a split is coming. Well, sometimes we call it
exactly right and sure enough, LXK ran right into resistance at
$120, just above the 20-DMA. It was a very strong day for LXK
and it bodes well for some momentum to take out resistance and
keep moving higher. $125 seems feasible and then perhaps a
little consolidation in the $120's to build strength for a re-
test of the $135.88 high, leading into a potential earnings run.
We would also consider picking the stock up at around $115, about
half way back from Friday's move. Solid support appears to have
moved up to $110 from $100. We will be exiting this position
before the April 24th earnings announcement.
Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked +13.25
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QCOM - Qualcomm $152.25 (+2.94)
It sure took QCOM a while to get its bearings straight and jump
into the trade winds of the NASDAQ rally. When you see rampant
buying in the NASDAQ, it was a bit surprising that QCOM, a huge
leader in the Index, was floundering through the first two days
of the rally. Friday's strong performance may indicate that the
stock is ready to catch up. It appears more likely now that the
correction is behind us and it is time to start focusing on
earnings. QCOM reports on April 18th, and by all accounts it
should be an excellent quarter for QCOM. The stock was trading
at $157.94 last year at this time and the Company announced a 2:1
split. If the stock can maintain these price levels and continue
to rally on the strength of their unquestioned wireless
technology leadership role, another split is entirely possible.
QCOM has been stuck in a trading range all year and it tested the
low end of the range on Tuesday's crash. We would really like to
see QCOM trade above the upper boundary of the range, $166,
before getting really bullish. Friday's strong performance leads
us to believe that a test of that level is entirely possible
early next week. There is plenty of RSI room before the stock
becomes overbought on a short-term basis. We wish to maintain a
stop near the 50-DMA which is now just above $135. We will be
exiting this position before the April 18th earnings
announcement.
Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -2.56
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TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $94.50 (-22.19)
Tumbleweed Communications offers secure Internet communication
services for businesses worldwide. Their Tumbleweed Integrated
Messaging Exchange (Tumbleweed IME) product suite is a software
and service solution that provides physical delivery, e-mail, and
Web messaging in a secure Internet-based environment. The stock
has now made a series of higher lows as it builds momentum along
with the NASDAQ. On Friday, TMWD managed to close above its 5-dma
which is a bullish signal. Tumbleweed is scheduled to announce
earnings on 4/19 (unconfirmed) and we are hoping for a split
announcement to come out with the earnings release. In the
meantime, there is light support at $92 with strong support at
$89, the 5 & 50-dma's. Set stops under $89 to protect profits.
Resistance is heavy at $96. There may be additional resistance at
the century mark. Open new positions on a bounce off of $92 or a
move above $96 on strong volume. Confirm market direction and
sector momentum before starting new plays. Plan to exit in front
of earnings.
Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked +12.50
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
ASML - ASM Lithography $129.88 (+18.13)
You have to love taking quick profits and that is exactly what we
are going to do. ASML enjoyed the Semiconductor Equipment rally
for two days before taking a break on Friday. Just in case this
becomes a consolidation with more pullback, we do not want to
risk losing our profits so we will take them now. We also do not
like "flying blind" by not knowing the exact split payable date.
Look to sell into rallies on Monday and keep a tight stop to
protect those profits.
Picked on April 4th @ $107.25
Profit/Loss = +22.63 (+21%)
Best Profit = +27.63 (+26%)
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EXDS - Exodus Communications $141.63 (+1.12)
Well, this one just hasn't panned out the way we had hoped.
Granted, almost every tech stock in the book took a beating last
week, but the good ones have all managed to come back strongly.
Many even ended up in positive territory for the week. Although
we have seen the shares of EXDS trade up nicely off Tuesday's
lows, Friday's action was unimpressive considering the strength
in almost all of the tech sectors and the Nasdaq in general.
Worse yet was the volume, which came in well shy of the average.
Our hope was that the Nasdaq recovery, combined with price
acceleration into an earnings run, would indeed set this baby on
fire. At this point, we are just glad for the last couple
positive days, as we feel they give us a better exit than we were
faced with earlier. We will re-evaluate the stock for the
possibility of re-entering for the 6/20 split. For now, look to
exit Monday on any positive move and maintain a tight stop to
avoid further loss.
Picked on March 19th @ $151.25
Profit/Loss = -9.63 (-6%)
Best Profit = +28.38 (+19%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.00 (-0.88)
Financial stocks like Citigroup were islands of safety during the
correction storm of early last week. Now that the comeback seems
to be running full throttle, these stocks are losing ground as
interest rate concerns have come back into the market. Because
of these factors, we will be dropping Citigroup to put our money
to work elsewhere. Honestly, we are exiting this position more
out of boredom than anything else. Citigroup has not violated
any support levels and it did make a new high last week. If you
wanted to stay in this stock, you probably could, but keep a stop
just below the $56 support level.
Picked on March 23rd @ $61.69
Profit/Loss = -2.69 (-4%)
Best Profit = +1.50 (+2%)
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MER - Merrill Lynch $100.81 (-4.19)
What stopped this bull in its in tracks? With the incredible
volume last week, you would figure that traders would be focusing
on the brokers. But alas, that was not the case as technology
stocks grabbed the lion's share of cash being put back to work.
Merrill has held support at $100 but has failed to get anything
going over the $105 resistance. With earnings coming out in mid
April (approximately the 17th) MER could still stage a rally.
You should be out of this play if MER drops below $100.
Picked on March 23rd @ $109.94
Profit/Loss = -9.13 (-8%)
Best Profit = +5.25 (+5%)
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