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Play Updates
Sunday, April 09, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

ANEN - Anaren Microwave, Inc. $115.38 (+19.50)

Anaren Microwave, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells complex microwave signal distribution networks and components for the wireless communications, satellite communications and defense electronics markets. The company's history spans 30 years of service both in the U.S. and abroad. When we last commented on Anaren, we noted that we would like to see volume increase over 100K per day...VIOLA. Volume is not all that has been active lately at Anaren. In the last 45 days, Anaren has approved a 3:2 stock split with an effective pay date of 6/9/00; announced the acquisition of RF Power Components, and filed for a secondary offering of 1.8 million shares to be issued in April. We begin initiation of this split run play with both a positive yet cautious outlook. The positive factors include increased volume averaging 126,000 shares. Friday's closing volume was up 40% from that to 185K, with a new closing high of $115.38. On 3/28, Banc of America initiated coverage with a strong buy rating and a price target of $130. Additionally, earnings are right around the corner on 4/19. Fundamental investors should be pleased to know that Anaren holds high marks with regard to Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Relative Strength (RS). Both are ranked in the top 5% compared to all other stocks according to Investors Business Daily's rating system. Technically, the chart is bullish also, with some light support at just under $100.00 but firmer support at about $95.00. At this point, we feel that further upside would be driven by earnings. Our note of caution with this play would be the two recent news events surrounding the acquisition and the secondary offering. Both of these types of announcements can slow investor interest. However, as of yet we haven't seen this, but we should be aware that it exists. Going forward, the upward march should be accompanied by rising volume. Stops should be placed just under $100.00. We hold true to our belief that it is better to exit prior to earnings to avoid possible rapid decay. We will exit this play by 4/18. After that, we will look at the possibility of re-entry for the split run. Since this is the Company's first split, we do not have any history to go by. We will continue to monitor the stock for further opportunities and entry points as we head into the split in June.



Picked on April 9th @ $115.38
Change since picked 0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

CPTH - Critical Path, Inc. $83.06 (-1.94)

Rated #1 Fastest Growing Technology Company in 1999 by Forbes Magazine, we add San Francisco based Critical Path, Inc. to our split candidate list. This international end-to-end Internet messaging provider with more than 50 million customers has reason to boast. Revenues for 1999 grew +1,701% to $16.2 million and 2000 estimates aren't too shabby either, with expectations of a growth rate of 624%. The company has 43.1 million shares outstanding and 150 million authorized, enough to effect a stock split. A possible announcement date might be with earnings, which are less than 2 weeks away, on 4/20. Investors may have decided that February's run-up from $66 to a high of $119.50 was good reason to take profits. Thus the stock has retreated to a firm support level back at $65. Buyers came back in on 4/5 and the stock rose +6.87 on 50% increased volume. With such lofty expectations for FY 2000 earnings, we would expect volume to pick up going into earnings, preferably over 825K. Some resistance is just overhead at $85 and then again at $91. A close on good volume above either level would be a positive sign. You should know by now our position on earnings. Even with expectations as high as these, we still recommend exiting the play before 4/20. Can a company announce good earnings and still sell off? Yahoo! it can. I mean, you bet it can. Should an announcement come with earnings, we will reevaluate Critical Path for split run opportunities. Good Luck!



Picked on April 9th @ $83.06
Change since picked 0.00



ORCL - Oracle Corporation $87.13 (+9.05)

"And the winner is.........Oracle Corporation!" Of what you ask? This week, Oracle Corporation, the B to B computer software developer and manufacturer, was bestowed with a Medal of Honor, so to speak. The U.S. Government awarded Oracle its highest rating of security certification for software. This certification, known as the Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS), recognized Oracle as the hands-down leader passing 12 independent security evaluations for various aspects of data security. Other good news of late came from Goldman Sachs, who holds Oracle in its prestigious "Super Seven" portfolio, which makes up their core holding of technology stocks. We are adding Oracle as a split candidate in expectation of a forth-coming announcement. On May 10th, the company will ask shareholders to increase the number of shares from 4 billion to 11 billion. The company has a long split history with 7 to date. Current volume is about average at 23 million shares traded. We would like to see volume increase in order to pierce the immediate overhead resistance level of $87-$89. Stocks that run up on decreasing volume tend to retreat to support and try again. We find those support levels at $81 and then back at $76. Earnings are a ways off, scheduled for sometime around June 13th. Oracle may enjoy the "drafting" effect of positive earnings that comes from the software sector as a whole. We would enter this play with a strong close over $90 or a bounce off of $76. Place stops just below $75 should the NASDAQ or the sector decide to retest out recent lows.



Picked on April 9th @ $87.13
Change since picked 0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

APH - Amphenol Corporation $118.63 (+16.38)

Amphenol manufactures connectors, cable and interconnect systems for electronics, cable television, telecommunications, aerospace, transportation and industrial applications. Their products include fiber optic interconnect products, chip card acceptor interconnect devices and industrial interconnect products. Shares of APH hit another all-time high of $120.25 on Friday. Volume was heavy as the momentum picks as we move closer to the Company's earnings release and the 2:1 split. They have already pre- announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but the actual numbers will be out on 4/19. However, the split is payable on 4/25, so the stock may suffer following the earnings announcement since a surprise is already factored in. Going forward, APH has support at $110 with additional support at the 5-dma currently at $107. Place stops under $107 to lock in gains. Resistance has become $120, just under Friday's high. Further resistance may show up at $130. Use a bounce off of $110 or a breakout above $120 to open new positions. Initiate new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend an exit prior to the earnings release.



Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +16.38



BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $97.38 (+24.00)

It appears that e-commerce is here to stay and if commerce companies wish to stay competitive, they may want to use the array of software solutions provided by BEA Systems. The whole point of e-commerce is to provide a seamless platform for transactions and that is exactly what BEAS does. The story for BEAS is great, but there has been pressure on the stock recently because it is one of those companies that has a lot of promise but is barely profitable. The fact that it is profitable does give it a fundamental advantage over a lot of stocks that got left behind during the correction. BEAS announced their second 2:1 split back in February. The payable date has been set for April 24th. It appears that the stock is attempting to rally back to a reasonable split price. Like we said on Thursday, bottom fishing is a dangerous game, but so far it looks like we have hooked a big one. Perhaps helping the stock to rally late in the week was the announcement that Delta Airlines will be using BEAS software for their rebuilt ticketing and travel services Web site. This was, obviously, a high profile contract for BEAS. After three straight days of higher highs coming off of Tuesday's washout, what's next? We see some resistance right at $100, followed by $107. If the NASDAQ momentum continues, BEAS should be able to test these levels. There is very little support at Friday's low of $92.19, followed by $75. We recommend that you do not let the stock selloff too much before taking profits. Nervousness can creep back into this market very quickly. We will be exiting this position before the April 24th split date.



Picked on April 6th @ $88.31
Change since picked +9.07



CHINA - China.com Corporation $69.69 (-11.31)

We are not out of the woods yet with this play but things are looking a bit better. China.com is another Internet Company that seems to have limitless possibilities but shaky fundamentals. Companies such as these have been the hardest hit during the correction. Despite this, the story is still a good one. China.com could quite possibly control the Internet "gateway" to the largest potential marketplace in the world. The advantages of this position became more lucrative following China's acceptance into the World Trade Organization. CHINA attempted to strengthen its hold over the Chinese Internet marketplace by announcing two acquisitions. The first involves a 100% takeover of CASTnet, an Internet and Intranet software solutions company. The second was a 35% stake in Stame.com, a highly popular virtual community and gaming site. Also on the plus side, CHINA will be enjoying a 2:1 stock split. There is a shareholder's meeting set for April 28th to determine the payable date. 70% corrections are a pretty ugly spectacle and that is exactly what CHINA has suffered, bottoming out at $47.50 before staging its bounce rally. The stock has been moving higher for three days now from understandably severely oversold levels. It would not take much for CHINA to roll back over. There just does not seem to be much conviction for the secondary Internet stocks. That said, we will let the comeback run its course as long as the stock can keep stair stepping back with higher highs. Be very cautious if the stock drops below any previous day's lows. Friday's low was $66.75. If the rally continues, the stock should find some resistance at $75 followed by $86. We will be exiting this position before the payable date or the May 15th earnings announcement, whichever comes first.



Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -10.12



CMRC - Commerce One $140.00 (-9.25)

Commerce One provides business-to-business electronic commerce solutions that link buyers and suppliers of indirect goods and services over the Internet. The Company has developed the Commerce Chain Solution to automate the procurement cycle between multiple buyers and suppliers. On Friday, the stock continued to bounce from its $100 low on Tuesday. Volume is declining as we move higher, which is a minor short-term concern. CMRC appears to have put in a bottom this week as we are now just 8 trading days away from the 2:1 split payable date and their earnings announcement on 4/19. In the meantime, there is support at $130 with stronger support at the 5-dma, now up to $126. Set stops under $126 to protect profits. Resistance is $150 and then the 10-dma at $155. Start new plays on a bounce off of $120 or a move above $130 on strong volume. Confirm B2B sector momentum and market sentiment before opening new positions. Exit no later than 4/18.



Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked +19.00



KSS - Kohl's Corporation $106.19 (+3.69)

Kohl's Corporation owns and operates 260 family oriented, specialty department stores located primarily in 22 states. All of the Company's stores carry similar product lines in order to give KSS purchasing power and economies of scale. Kohl's competes with large department stores by selling major brand name products at lower prices than the department stores. The retail sector is in the sweet spot right now as bad news for the sector (slowing sales) is still good for the group because it means that the Fed will stop tightening. The group is also trading at low multiples and benefits from any flight to quality. We are looking for the momentum to continue going into to the 2:1 split, payable on 4/24. Until then, support is up to the 5-dma, now at $103 with psychological support at the century mark. Place stops under $100 as protection. Resistance is now $110 and then $115. Initiate new positions on a bounce off of $103 or a breakout above $110. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit by 4/20.



Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +6.63



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $77.38 (-19.38)

Metromedia Fiber Network maintains fiber-optic networks in major metropolitan areas such as Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. The Company offers unlimited, un-metered bandwidth at a fixed cost. They are currently expanding into 51 North American cities and plan to enter 16 European markets. The stock is recovering from the huge drop on Tuesday. On Friday, MFNX continued its rebound, hitting an intra-day high of $80 and closing above its 5-dma on 2 x ADV. Momentum is coming back as we move closer to the 4/17 payable date of the 2:1 split, only 6 trading days away. As for the stock, support is now the 5-dma at $74 with stronger support at $70. Set stops under $70 to limit losses. Resistance is now up to $80 and then the 10-dma at $85. Look for a bounce off of $74 or a breakout above $80 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit no later than 4/14.



Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -20.69



NT - Nortel Networks $124.94 (-2.88)

Last week's schizophrenic action left Nortel's stock right back to where it was before. Call it a wash. Call it a fresh start. NT is a giant telecommunications equipment company. It is kind of a Canadian version of Lucent and Cisco with a leading role in the expansion of fiber optic communications infrastructure. This is a solid growth area for the Company and one of the main reasons why NT has performed so well recently. NT announced a 2:1 split back in January. We are still waiting for an announcement for the next shareholder's meeting. A payable date for the split will be set at that time. NT has a solid earnings record and a nearly unparalleled product line, which leads us to believe that NT could continue to be a core holding among institutions. Those types of investment inflows should help NT to keep working its way higher. One key news item last week was the earnings warning that came from Tellabs, a chief competitor for NT. The fact that NT did not sell off in sympathy is further indication of the strong interest the investment community has in NT. Also last week, in an attempt to streamline their operations, NT sold several manufacturing facilities to Solectron. The move will help NT to continue to concentrate on product development. We were very encouraged to see NT climb back up into the old consolidation range of $120-$130. This price area provided a nice base for the stock's last breakout rally to $144 and change. We think you can keep buying the stock here, as long as it holds above $120, in the hopes that a move above $130 will result in another attempt at the old highs. We will be exiting this position before the April 25th earnings release.



Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -12.31



NXLK - Nextlink Communications Inc. $107.25 (-16.43)

Nextlink provides broadband communications services for businesses. The Company's growing fiber optic network currently services most major U.S. cities through its 28 fiber optic facilities. The stock is making a decent recovery after a rough ride earlier in the week. On Friday, shares of NXLK were as high as $112.50 in the morning before reversing course. It did finish the day slightly higher and support held throughout the day, which helps investor confidence. The Company announced a 2:1 split on 2/16, payable on 6/15 and earnings are coming up in late April. We expect NXLK to gain momentum as we move closer to the earnings release and the split. Going forward, there is light support at $105 with strong support at the century mark. Set stops under $100 to limit losses. Resistance remains the 50-dma at $109 with heavier resistance at $120. Look for a bounce off of $105 or a breakout above $109 on heavy volume to initiate new plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. The split is not payable until June but the Company is set to announce earnings later this month (April 26th-unconfirmed), so we recommend an exit in front of earnings. After they come out, we will revisit the stock for a possible re- entry for the split run.



Picked on April 6th @ $105.44
Change since picked +1.81



NXTL - Nextel $142.44 (-5.81)

Nextel is a leading provider of digital and wireless communications services in the United States. Their digital network is one of the largest integrated wireless communications systems in the United States. The Company also owns several mobile radio spectrum holdings in all of the top 50 U.S. metropolitan areas. Shares of NXTL were flying on Friday, gaining $15.88 on average volume. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26, before the bell, while the 2:1 split is not payable until 6/6, so most of the recent action is related to an earnings run rather than the split. On the technical side, support is now the 5-dma at $135 with stronger support at $130. Place stops under $130 as protection. Resistance is the 20-dma at $146 and then $150. Open new positions on a bounce off of $135 or a move above $146 on strong volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. We recommend exiting prior to the earnings release with possible re-entry following the post-earnings depression.



Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -6.19


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

A - Agilent Technologies $122.00 (+19.00)

Having been successfully spun off from its parent, HWP, back in December, it has mostly been green lights and straight ahead for this major developer and manufacturer of test and measurement equipment. Although the Company makes products for many different sectors, as wide ranging as Healthcare and Chemicals, perhaps the most important sector the Company makes products for is the Networking sector. With billions being invested to expand the World's networking capabilities, a fair amount must be allocated to testing and maintaining these systems and Agilent has the products to do just that. HWP has set a date of May 2nd to spin off its 84% stake in Agilent to shareholders. This news sparked a huge rally in Agilent. It will be interesting to see what affect this has on the share price of Agilent. Will shareholders keep the stock or sell, only time will tell. But in the meantime, we like the split possibilities for Agilent. The stock came public at roughly $40 a share and has rallied substantially. Triple digit stock prices are often a catalyst for many NYSE stocks to split. The Company has plenty of authorized shares to enact a split. Earnings are not until May 18th. With the spin-off coming, it is possible that the Company will wait until the earnings announcement before declaring a split. In the meantime, we will trade the stock based upon its strong technical and fundamental characteristics. In our initial write-up, we stated that a move above $105 could take us back up to resistance at $120. The stock not only took out resistance but closed above it, which is very bullish and it looks like the stock could rally to the next level of resistance in the low $130's, as long as it can hold up here. We will be exiting this position before the May 2nd spin-off or after a split announcement, should that occur first.



Picked on April 6th @ $105.00
Change since picked +17.00



ADBE - Adobe Systems $125.00 (+13.69)

Adobe Systems provides publishing, graphic design and imaging software for Internet and print production. Their products enable users to create and deliver images and documents on all print and electronic media. The stock hit an all-time high of $125 on Friday as the NASDAQ continued its rebound. ADBE closed right on the high, which is usually a good sign. The Company has its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/26, when the shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares. We are looking for a split announcement out of the meeting. For now, ADBE has support at $120 and then $115. Set stops under $115 to lock in a profit. The stock broke through resistance on Friday so new resistance may be $130 or at $5 increments above $130. Look for a bounce off of $120 or a breakout above $130 on heavy volume to initiate new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. We recommend an exit following the Annual meeting, or in the session following a split announcement.



Picked on April 6th @ $114.63  
Change since picked +10.38



BRCM - Broadcom $207.75 (-35.12)

Broadcom develops highly integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission over the current communications infrastructures. The Company's products are used in a wide variety of communications products including set-top boxes, networking equipment and cable modems. The stock is slowly regaining strength after a big dip to the low $150's earlier this week. BRCM has now made 4 consecutive higher lows and it closed above $200 every day last week, creating a springboard to bounce on. In the news, the stock has been selected to be a part of the Merrill Lynch Broadband HOLDRs (BDH). This should provide some long-term stability for the stock. Broadcom is expected to announce earnings on 4/18, followed by their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27, when the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement either with earnings or following the Annual Meeting. As for the technicals, light support has come in at $202, bolstered by psychological support at $200 and then $190. Set stops under $190 as protection. Resistance remains at $213 and then the 20-dma at $219. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $200 or a move above $213. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of the earnings announcement.



Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -5.06



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $196.48 (+25.41)

Investors are falling all over themselves to get back into Check Point. It is understandable why. CHKP leads what is bound to be a growing sector, Security Software. If consumers are going to continue their new habits of Internet shopping, then they are going to want to have the belief that it is safe to send their personal financial info over the Web. This year has seen several headline grabbing news items about cyber-theft of credit card numbers. Anybody who wants to do business over the Web will need to protect their customers and this creates a huge marketplace for CHKP for what may be years to come. The first split in the Company's history was back in December when the stock was trading at $192.81. Having recently climbed back up to that price, CHKP is a serious candidate to split its shares again. CHKP will have to increase the number of authorized shares before splitting again. Earnings are coming out Wednesday, so please be sure you exit this position before then. It is entirely possible that we could get a nice run in this stock on Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of a good earnings report and possible split announcement. You can never underestimate momentum in either direction with this stock. CHKP sliced right through what we thought would be pretty good short-term resistance at $185, and settled just below the $200 level. An anticipatory rally could easily take out $200 and move the stock to $232, which should provide the next major point of resistance. If the NASDAQ rally falters early next week, look for CHKP to test support at $185. Since we will be exiting this position on Tuesday (earnings are coming out Wednesday morning) you do not want to let the stock drop too much. Nothing wrong with taking a nice profit.



Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked +26.98



EMC - EMC Corporation $144.00 (+17.00)

"Mind the gap". A British expression meaning watch your step when boarding the train. In the case of software storage giant EMC, we don't mind the gaps at all. In fact, this week's two gaps helped boost share prices higher by +18.38 to Friday's close of $144.38. Moving averages have been key as of late with EMC. Tuesday's pandemonium saw a bounce off the 100-dma at $110.00, which was followed by Wednesday's testing of the 50-dma at $121.00. Thursday, we closed right at the 10-dma at about $133.00. Friday's gap open to $136.00 saw follow through all day, closing just under the 52 week high at $145.44. Volume is critical now to push the stock to a new high. We still want to see 7.0 M or better to confirm direction. Support is back at the 10-dma at about $133. A new high on good volume would be a good entry point, but still plan to exit before earnings on 4/26.



Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked +8.88



GLW - Corning Incorporated $196.00 (+2.00)

Silicon is one of the most abundant elements on Earth and Corning is the master of making the other key product from it, glass. The optical communications era is upon us and GLW has no shortage of business due to the insatiable demand for faster communications with ever increasing bandwidth. To stay at the forefront of this technology, GLW announced the strategic acquisition of NetOptix, a thin film filter maker, for $2 billion. It was also announced last week that GLW will spend $50 million to build its second optical manufacturing facility. This is yet another clear signal that business remains robust for Corning. It has been a really long time since GLW has split it shares. Considering the elevated share price, the first split in eight years could be coming soon. There is a shareholder's meeting scheduled for April 27th. There will be a vote to increase the number of authorized shares, which will enable the Company to announce a split. GLW certainly was not immune from all of the selling earlier last week as the stock spiked down to a low of $141 on Tuesday before staging a solid three-day recovery, nestling just below the psychologically important $200 level. This price should provide some fairly stiff resistance for the stock. We are encouraged by the fact that GLW was able to close right near its high on Friday's close. This is unusual because most traders prefer to be flat for the weekend but seemed unwilling to part with their GLW positions. If there is some early morning strength in GLW, look for it to climb above $200 and stay there before becoming confident that the stock can make a run to the next resistance level of $226.44, the old high. Support is all the back down to Friday's low of $178. A bounce off of that price could be a buying opportunity. We will be exiting this position no later than just before the April 24th earnings date.



Picked on March 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -18.38



HWP - Hewlett Packard $154.00 (+21.94)

WOW! What a week Hewlett Packard has had. Up +20.00 this week since Tuesday's low of $129. The stock's consolidation, which began in early March, met with its resistance level Friday. Friday's close is the second attempt since 3/9 to break through $155.00. Volume on Friday was slightly below average at 3.2 million shares. Shareholders received good news after Friday's close, as the company set the distribution date for the dividend from the Agilent spin-off. Shareholders will receive 0.37 shares of Agilent on June 2 for each of their HWP shares. The stock reacted positively in after hours trading, moving up as high as $156. As previously mentioned, strong volume (4.5 million or better) would trigger further interest to the upside. Support is back at $140 unless the stock can hold here at this level and consolidate. Exit before earnings in mid May unless a split announcement comes first.



Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +21.00



INKT - Inktomi $180.88 (-14.12)

Just when you thought the party was over for Internet stocks, a few selected issues came roaring back at the end of last week and fortunately, we own one of them with our position in Inktomi. The big news item last week that sent ripples throughout the Internet sector was Yahoo!'s earnings announcement. Yahoo! shares dropped and missed out on the big NASDAQ rally despite reporting excellent numbers and receiving several price target upgrades. As impressive as INKT's comeback has been, the stock was still down for the week and we suspect that there is a little nervousness ahead of the Company's earnings report due to the negative reaction to Yahoo!'s numbers. Earnings are due April 18th. More caution is advised because INKT is still not a profitable company and we suspect that the biggest winners of the next rally will be stocks of companies that have solid fundamentals. It is entirely possible that INKT will announce another split soon, and perhaps that is why the stock has been able to catch back much of its early week losses. INKT is trading at a price that is above the $145.00 price the stock was trading at when the last split was announced back in early December. The Company has enough authorized shares to enact a 2:1 split. Friday saw some good technical action for INKT with the stock closing on its high for the day and just barely above the downtrend line. A little follow through on Monday and INKT could easily rally to resistance at $195. It could take a few days of solid market action for the stock to take out the important psychological $200 price. We really want to see this follow through with the MACD still negative and OBV slipping, indicating INKT could trade sideways for a little while, perhaps even down. Protect your profits and look to exit before the earnings are released on the 18th.



Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked +22.88



INTC - Intel Corporation $136.81 (+4.87)

Have you ever felt like you were being watched? If that kind of feeling makes you uneasy, then you don't want to become an industry leader in silicon-based semiconductors like Intel. Often referred to as a barometer to lead the NASDQ earnings, all semiconductor analysts' eyes are now fixed on Intel. Earnings are just over a week away, scheduled for 4/18. Being watched has been good for INTC this week, despite Tuesday's mayhem. The stock closed up (+4.87) for the week on average volume of 25.6 million shares. The consolidation previously mentioned between $125-134 was conquered Friday, but not by much. We would like a more convincing victory of a higher level from an industry leader. Resistance is now at the 52-week high of $144.13. Volume is the buzzword now; we need good volume in excess of 25 million shares before entering any new plays. Support is back at the 30-dma at $126.00. Below that, it's way back at the 50-dma at $117.85. Our strategy, as always, is to plan an exit before the close on earnings day, 4/18.



Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +6.93



LXK - Lexmark International Group $119.50 (+13.75)

By closing up on the week, LXK is further proof that perhaps the best place to be invested this quarter is in major NYSE technology companies with solid growth rates and steady profits. Printers provide a wonderful business for LXK, not to mention the continuous supplies necessary to run printers. By constantly introducing new products, LXK has managed to capture a 40% share of the printer market. A 20% growth going forward seems to be feasible for this excellently managed company. It was one year ago when Lexmark announced a 2:1 split with the stock trading at $120.88 and with the stock currently trading at similar levels, another split seems eminently possible. We will keep checking the wires for any announcements for a B of D meeting, which may signal that a split is coming. Well, sometimes we call it exactly right and sure enough, LXK ran right into resistance at $120, just above the 20-DMA. It was a very strong day for LXK and it bodes well for some momentum to take out resistance and keep moving higher. $125 seems feasible and then perhaps a little consolidation in the $120's to build strength for a re- test of the $135.88 high, leading into a potential earnings run. We would also consider picking the stock up at around $115, about half way back from Friday's move. Solid support appears to have moved up to $110 from $100. We will be exiting this position before the April 24th earnings announcement.



Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked +13.25



QCOM - Qualcomm $152.25 (+2.94)

It sure took QCOM a while to get its bearings straight and jump into the trade winds of the NASDAQ rally. When you see rampant buying in the NASDAQ, it was a bit surprising that QCOM, a huge leader in the Index, was floundering through the first two days of the rally. Friday's strong performance may indicate that the stock is ready to catch up. It appears more likely now that the correction is behind us and it is time to start focusing on earnings. QCOM reports on April 18th, and by all accounts it should be an excellent quarter for QCOM. The stock was trading at $157.94 last year at this time and the Company announced a 2:1 split. If the stock can maintain these price levels and continue to rally on the strength of their unquestioned wireless technology leadership role, another split is entirely possible. QCOM has been stuck in a trading range all year and it tested the low end of the range on Tuesday's crash. We would really like to see QCOM trade above the upper boundary of the range, $166, before getting really bullish. Friday's strong performance leads us to believe that a test of that level is entirely possible early next week. There is plenty of RSI room before the stock becomes overbought on a short-term basis. We wish to maintain a stop near the 50-DMA which is now just above $135. We will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings announcement.



Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -2.56



TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $94.50 (-22.19)

Tumbleweed Communications offers secure Internet communication services for businesses worldwide. Their Tumbleweed Integrated Messaging Exchange (Tumbleweed IME) product suite is a software and service solution that provides physical delivery, e-mail, and Web messaging in a secure Internet-based environment. The stock has now made a series of higher lows as it builds momentum along with the NASDAQ. On Friday, TMWD managed to close above its 5-dma which is a bullish signal. Tumbleweed is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 (unconfirmed) and we are hoping for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release. In the meantime, there is light support at $92 with strong support at $89, the 5 & 50-dma's. Set stops under $89 to protect profits. Resistance is heavy at $96. There may be additional resistance at the century mark. Open new positions on a bounce off of $92 or a move above $96 on strong volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. Plan to exit in front of earnings.



Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked +12.50


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

ASML - ASM Lithography $129.88 (+18.13)

You have to love taking quick profits and that is exactly what we are going to do. ASML enjoyed the Semiconductor Equipment rally for two days before taking a break on Friday. Just in case this becomes a consolidation with more pullback, we do not want to risk losing our profits so we will take them now. We also do not like "flying blind" by not knowing the exact split payable date. Look to sell into rallies on Monday and keep a tight stop to protect those profits.



Picked on April 4th @ $107.25

Profit/Loss = +22.63 (+21%)
Best Profit = +27.63 (+26%)



EXDS - Exodus Communications $141.63 (+1.12)

Well, this one just hasn't panned out the way we had hoped. Granted, almost every tech stock in the book took a beating last week, but the good ones have all managed to come back strongly. Many even ended up in positive territory for the week. Although we have seen the shares of EXDS trade up nicely off Tuesday's lows, Friday's action was unimpressive considering the strength in almost all of the tech sectors and the Nasdaq in general. Worse yet was the volume, which came in well shy of the average. Our hope was that the Nasdaq recovery, combined with price acceleration into an earnings run, would indeed set this baby on fire. At this point, we are just glad for the last couple positive days, as we feel they give us a better exit than we were faced with earlier. We will re-evaluate the stock for the possibility of re-entering for the 6/20 split. For now, look to exit Monday on any positive move and maintain a tight stop to avoid further loss.


  

Picked on March 19th @ $151.25

Profit/Loss = -9.63 (-6%)
Best Profit = +28.38 (+19%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.00 (-0.88)

Financial stocks like Citigroup were islands of safety during the correction storm of early last week. Now that the comeback seems to be running full throttle, these stocks are losing ground as interest rate concerns have come back into the market. Because of these factors, we will be dropping Citigroup to put our money to work elsewhere. Honestly, we are exiting this position more out of boredom than anything else. Citigroup has not violated any support levels and it did make a new high last week. If you wanted to stay in this stock, you probably could, but keep a stop just below the $56 support level.



Picked on March 23rd @ $61.69

Profit/Loss = -2.69 (-4%)
Best Profit = +1.50 (+2%)



MER - Merrill Lynch $100.81 (-4.19)

What stopped this bull in its in tracks? With the incredible volume last week, you would figure that traders would be focusing on the brokers. But alas, that was not the case as technology stocks grabbed the lion's share of cash being put back to work. Merrill has held support at $100 but has failed to get anything going over the $105 resistance. With earnings coming out in mid April (approximately the 17th) MER could still stage a rally. You should be out of this play if MER drops below $100.



Picked on March 23rd @ $109.94

Profit/Loss = -9.13 (-8%)
Best Profit = +5.25 (+5%)


 


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