NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
NXLK - Nextlink Communications Inc. $105.44 +8.50 (-18.25)
For all those who are tired of slow, phone line-based modem
connections, Nextlink is here to help! A provider of broadband
communications, NXLK services businesses through 28 fiber optic
facilities. Nextlink's fiber optic network, which is well
established in most major U.S. cities, has allowed the company to
flourish as demand for broadband connections continues to climb.
Brokerage firms sensing this opportunity have continued to
upgrade the stock. The most recent upgrade came on Wednesday from
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, who initiated coverage of NXLK with a
strong buy rating. The brokerage firm also set a 12-month price
target at $160. Steady upgrades and good news have been of help.
As shares have continued to run to higher prices, the company
responded with a 2:1 split on 2/16, which will be payable on
6/15. As for recent performance, the stock has built up some
support the last couple of days from a major drop in technology
stocks earlier in the week. From this consolidation, we are
anticipating a break above the 50-dma ($108.30) as an excellent
opportunity to open plays. If this price break does unfold, then
expect more resistance to be felt at $120 before further advances
occur. Support looks strong at the century mark and farther down
at $90, which is braced by the 100-dma ($90.10). These support
levels seem to be clearly defined and represent good buying
opportunities when prices recoil sharply from them. Although the
split is not due for some time, the company is set to announce
earnings later this month (April 26th-unconfirmed), so you should
plan an exit in front of earnings. After they come out, we will
access the stock for a possible re-entry for the split run.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.44
Change since picked 0.00
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BEAS - BEA Systems Inc. $88.31 +6.88 (+14.93)
Attention cat lovers! This one is not a dead cat bounce! Well,
hopefully not. We are finally interested in this leader of
backbone software that makes all of this e-commerce business we
keep hearing about work. Internet stocks have been suffering
from a huge amount of profit taking recently and we have seen
this happen in April's past. But the correction could be over for
this one. The Company split its shares 2:1 in November. Then
the Company announced another split back in February when the
stock was rolling. It was totally unintentional that the stock
was actually cut in half by market action. The Company has not
cancelled the split, scheduled for April 24th, and a proposal to
increase the number of authorized shares was approved today. On
top of the overall strength on the NASDAQ today, the share price
of BEAS was further emboldened by the news that Delta Airlines
has chosen BEAS to help build its redesigned customer Web site.
This was on top of yesterday's news release that B2Bgalaxy.com
will also rely upon the BEA WebLogic Server to drive their B2B e-
commerce solutions. Tuesday's washout took the stock all the way
down to $51.63 before recovering nicely. If the NASDAQ can hold
up, look for BEAS to test $100. There is only a little support
at $75 so be careful with this one. Bottom fishing is a
dangerous game, sometimes you get the trophy but sometimes you
end up being the bait. Due to the fact that the split is just
around the corner, we feel that BEAS has a better chance at a
short-term rally than most of its sister stocks in the Internet
sector. We will be exiting this position before the April 24th
payable date.
Picked on April 6th @ $88.31
Change since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
A - Agilent Technologies $105.00 +8.06 (+1.00)
Formula for stock market success: Be a leading innovative
division of a huge market cap DOW stock and get spun off. The
story of Lucent and now Agilent. Lucent had a wonderful run
right after its spin-off and enjoyed a couple of splits. Could
Agilent follow suit? Equipment supply is a huge business and
Agilent is at the forefront of several fast growing sectors. Of
particular interest to momentum investors is Agilent's role as a
main supplier of the tools necessary to test networking
equipment. Routers built by Cisco and tested by Agilent. It's a
good thing to connect with winners. Agilent is constantly
rolling out new products and now that the Company is free from
HWP, the stock has been rewarded. Agilent should also be one of
the technology stocks that should recover from the recent
correction because the Company has solid fundamentals, good cash
flow and earnings. Agilent traded as high as $162 after coming
public back in December in the $40's. It is not surprising that
the 400% move was corrected but the stock does seem poised to
rally now that it has climbed back above $100. The momentum
should continue tomorrow because the stock closed today right on
its high for the week and appears to have very little resistance
until $120. If you want to be patient, make sure $100 holds,
supported by the 5-dma at $99. Otherwise, keep a stop in there
just below $90, yesterday's low. This stock hasn't split before,
but must be considered a candidate at this level. We expect a
split announcement with the next earnings release, if not
beforehand. We will be exiting this position no later than just
before the earnings announcement on May 18th unless we get the
split announcement prior to then.
Picked on April 6th @ $105.00
Change since picked 0.00
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ADBE - Adobe Systems $114.63 +7.44 (+3.31)
Adobe Systems is a leading provider of publishing, graphic design
and imaging software for both Internet and print production.
Their products enable users to create and deliver images and
documents across all print and electronic media. The stock has a
love-hate relationship with Wall Street. It seems that the
analyst community never believes that the Company can maintain
current growth rates and the stock gets punished. Then they
announce the numbers and the stock takes off shortly afterwards.
Well, they announced earnings in March and the stock has rallied
again. The momentum turned negative with the rest of the market.
Now that the market is starting to turn around, ADBE should turn
around too. The Company currently has 119.5 million shares
outstanding and 200 million shares authorized. However, Adobe has
its Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/26. The shareholders will be
voting on a proposed increase in the number of authorized shares
to 500 million. We are looking for a split announcement
following the meeting. As for the stock, it closed at a record
high today on heavy volume (2.7m vs 2.4m). This was due in part
to their recent announcement that they were raising their revenue
target for the second half of the year from 20% to 25%.
Additionally, Chase H&Q raised their rating on the stock to Buy
from Market Outperform. In the meantime, there is support
between $108-$109 (5 & 10-dma's sitting there) with psychological
support at the century mark. Resistance is $116 with heavier
resistance at $120. Use a bounce off of $108 or a breakout above
$116 to start new plays. Initiate new positions on strong volume,
only in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual
meeting, or in the session following a split announcement.
Picked on April 6th @ $114.63
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
APH - Amphenol Corporation $110.50 +6.50 (+8.25)
Amphenol held its ground during the big sell-off and now it is
breaking out. The stock hit an all-time high of $111 on Thursday.
There has been no news and yet APH is gaining momentum.
Apparently earnings do count for something. The Company recently
pre-announced better than expected quarterly earnings and set a
2:1 stock split. This is driving the stock as we are now less
than 2 weeks away from the actual earnings announcement on 4/19.
However, the split is not payable until 4/25 and APH may dip
after the earnings release, so it will probably be safer to exit
before the earnings announcement. In the meantime, APH has light
support at $105 with psychological support at the century mark.
Set stops under $100 to limit losses. Resistance was taken out on
Thursday so new resistance may be at $115 or $120. Look for a
bounce off of $105 or a breakout above $115 on heavy volume to
initiate new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum
before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings.
Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +8.25
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ASML - ASM Lithography $130.75 +11.75 (+19.00)
There is nothing better than getting into the right group at the
right time. Semiconductor Equipment stocks have greatly
outperformed the market the past two days and the reasons for
their strong moves are two fold. Great fundamentals and huge
growth prospects. Another factor that is possibly fueling the
excellent comeback for ASML is the fact that there is a pending
3:1 split. We still do not know the exact date, but it certainly
has not hurt interest in this play. ASML is very close to pre-
correction levels. Before the market fell apart, ASML was
trading in a small uptrending base between $130-$139. A close
above the top-end of that range and we could see a retest of
$150. Do not be discouraged if ASML slows down a bit and
attempts to consolidate its recent comeback. A pullback of about
half of today's gains, around $127-$128 (20-dma) would be
acceptable. We need to start getting cautious if ASML drops
farther than that. A move below today's supporting low of
$120.50 and you may want to take profits.
Picked on April 4th @ $107.25
Change since picked +23.50
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CHINA - China.com Corporation $63.25 +8.00 (-17.75)
China's recent entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) has
prompted several analysts to turn very bullish regarding
China.com's unique position to capitalize on this change. CHINA
not only perceives which companies will fair well in the future,
it also has its stock to use for purchasing power. The first sign
of this purchasing occurred today, as CHINA agreed to purchase
stakes in 3 major Chinese technology firms. Under the purchases,
CHINA will take over software developer CASTnet, own a 50% stake
in Beijing System Integrator and a 35% stake in virtual
communities developer, Stame.com. Although visits to the CHINA
website have increased 700 fold, the stock has yet to rebound
from a month-long decline. On Thursday, the shares were lifted
higher by a strong gap-up at the open, to close up 8 points on
the day. It's quite possible that today's price action was the
best the stock has seen in the last 30 days. This gives us some
indication that a bottom may start forming at the stock's present
levels. As previously mentioned, the $50 level was and continues
to remain a strong level of support. Future bounces off this
level should provide for good buying opportunities. If prices
continue their rebound, look for initial resistance to be present
that the 5-dma ($64.55). Just above this level the $70 mark will
need to be penetrated before the stock signals higher prices.
Look to exit in front of the payable date, which should be
announced after the Shareholders meeting of 4/28.
Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -16.54
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CMRC - Commerce One $128.88 +16.38 (-20.38)
Commerce One and Compaq Computer Corporation (CPQ) announced a
new business-to-business buying solution based on Commerce One's
BuySite Portal Edition and MarketSite Global Trading Portal.
Additionally, the Company received a coverage initiation rating
of 'Buy" from CIBC World Markets Thursday morning. The news and
a bottoming in the B2B sector saved CMRC on Thursday. The stock
gained $16.38 on 2 x ADV. Shares of CMRC may be getting ready to
make a run into the 2:1 stock split on 4/19. On the technical
side, support is $120 with stronger support at $110. Set stops
under $110 to limit risk. Resistance is just above Thursday's
high at $130 and then $140. Look for a bounce off of $120 or a
move above $130 to open new positions. Start new plays on strong
volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit by 4/18.
Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked +7.88
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EXDS - Exodus Communications $139.69 +8.69 (-0.81)
Developing at a rapid-fire pace, an agreement with Compaq
Computer on Wednesday should allow EXDS to continue its swift
growth in a smooth fashion. Combined Compaq and Exodus will
jointly establish Solution Centers for Exodus Internet Data
Centers (IDC's). These centers enable global businesses to
accelerate their Internet presence, and at the same time provide
a highly available and secure Internet structure. As for this
weeks price action, shares have continued to test resistance at
the 50-dma mark ($139.69). A break above this level, when
combined with strong volume, should send prices up to the buck
fifty mark before finding resistance along the 20-dma ($151). If
continued strength pushes prices higher, expect to see good
resistance at the 52-week high of $179.63. Support will likely
come at the 5-dma of $134, followed at the $120 mark, where solid
support was formed earlier in the year. If prices retrace
strongly through this level, then expect to see a sizeable drop
to the century mark, as the next level of support. Time your
entries carefully and watch for good volume to confirm bounces
off support or runs through resistance. Exits should be placed
one day ahead of the earnings announcement of 4/20, as is our
normal policy.
Picked on March 19th @ $151.25
Change since picked -11.56
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KSS - Kohl's Corporation $103.94 +3.06 (+1.44)
Kohl's reported a 6.8% rise in March sales on Thursday and
investors liked the news. Shares of KSS traded up to a record
high of $106 before some profit-taking late in the afternoon.
Volume was on the heavy side as investors return to the retail
sector. The group is benefiting from the report of a sales
slowdown as it could mean an end to the Fed tightening interest
rates. The value call is also helping out whenever it comes
around. We expect the momentum to continue going into to the 4/24
payable date of the 2:1 split. For now, support is the 10-dma,
now at $100. Stronger support is the 15-dma at $97. Place stops
under $97 as protection. Resistance is now $106 and then $110.
Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $97 or a breakout above
$106 on heavy volume. Confirm sector momentum and market
sentiment before opening new positions. Exit no later than 4/20.
Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +4.38
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $72.13 +5.88 (-24.63)
Metromedia Fiber Network is trying to find a bottom. After a huge
drop on Tuesday, the stock tested support on Wednesday and then
bounced back on Thursday on more than twice the average daily
volume. This could be the beginning of a strong bounce, or just
one tick of a consolidation pattern. On the positive side, the
stock has now made two consecutive higher lows and this is
somewhat bullish. The payable date of the 2:1 split is 4/17,
which is only 7 trading days away. Until then, MFNX has light
support at $70 with stronger support at the 100-dma of $64. Set
stops under $64 as protection. Resistance is currently $75 and
then $81, the 50-dma. Use a bounce off of $70 or a breakout above
$75 on strong volume to open new positions. Confirm market
direction and sector momentum before stating new plays. Exit by
4/14.
Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -25.94
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NT - Nortel Networks $120.31 +3.19 (-5.69)
Have we made a bottom yet? The market is certainly acting like
it has and NT is in the thick of it. It is not surprising that
this leader in communications equipment has been coming back.
The Company has very stable revenues and earnings and is on the
cutting edge of the optical communications revolution. It should
be a core holding of every technology fund and we sense several
managers have used the recent weakness in the stock as an
opportunity to add to their positions. NT could have been hurt
today by the earnings warning from competitor Tellabs, but it was
not. Perhaps the perception is that TLAB is having problems
because it is losing the battle against the likes of NT. Nortel
is starting to reverse its oversold condition. The stock barely
traded higher than yesterday's high. The fact that it did is
encouraging. We would like to see NT stay above the $120 support
and get comfortable in the $120-$130 range for awhile to give us
confidence that the worst is over. Earnings are April 25th and
we think NT can keep slowly working its way higher into that
date. We will be exiting before the announcement.
Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -16.94
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NXTL - Nextel $126.56 +0.69 (-21.69)
Nextel continued to slide on Wednesday in questionable market
conditions. On Thursday, the stock was hit with more selling,
beating the stock down to an intra-day low of $119.44 before
bouncing back and closing the session with a small gain. The
Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/26, before the
bell, and the 2:1 split is payable on 6/6. The split has taken a
back seat to the earnings announcement due to the timing of the
two events. Going forward, there is light support at $125 with
stronger support at the 100-dma, currently $119. Set tight stops
under $119 to prevent further losses. Resistance is now $135 (5 &
50-dma's) and then the 10-dma at $144. Look for a bounce off of
$120 or a move above $135 to start new plays. Initiate new
positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. We recommend
an exit in front of earnings with a possible re-entry following
the post-earnings depression.
Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -22.06
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $202.75 -1.81 (-40.13)
Despite the recent dips in Broadcom, the stock is holding up
relatively well. It has held the 50-dma to the close for the last
three days as the intra-day lows move higher. This is usually a
sign of a bottom as the daily trading range shrinks, eventually
forcing the stock to move. This could happen any day now as we
move closer to the earnings release, scheduled for 4/18
(unconfirmed). They also have their Annual Shareholder Meeting on
4/27 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized
shares. We are looking for a split announcement either with
earnings or following the Annual Meeting. Until then,
psychological support is hanging on at $200 (50-dma at $199) with
additional support under Thursday's low, at $190. Set stops under
$190 as protection. Resistance is now at Thursday's high of $213
and then $220. Look for a bounce off of $200 or a move above $213
on heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment
and sector direction before starting new plays. We recommend an
exit in front of the earnings announcement.
Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -10.06
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C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.31 +0.63 (-0.57)
If you are planning to watch The Master's this weekend, be
prepared for a marketing onslaught from Citigroup. The Company
is a leading sponsor and their ads will be prominent throughout.
Hopefully they can get the message out that they are perhaps the
most complete and diversified financial services company in the
world. After making a new high and exhibiting an incredible
amount of relative strength earlier in the week, Citigroup has
been a bit of a dud during the comeback. It has been largely
ignored in favor of faster moving stocks. We still believe that a
split is a very real possibility. We probably will not get rich
on this play but in the end it should be profitable. A small
negative influence on the stock today was caused when Citigroup
was forced to raise their tender offer price for the remaining
shares of Travelers Property Casualty (TAP) to $41.95 from
$41.50. Another negative was the settlement agreement whereby
Citigroup's brokerage arm, Salomon Smith Barney, will pay a $38
million dollar fine to the SEC and other federal agencies for
overpricing certain muni bonds and defrauding the federal
government. There are currently some rumors out there that
Citigroup's German unit is considering a bid for Dresdner Bank,
which had failed merger talks this week with its rival Deutsche
Bank. We plan on staying with Citibank as long as it can keep
holding support above $56. Resistance is the newly established
high at $63.19. We still expect a rally into what should be a
good earnings report on or around April 18th. We will exit
before then.
Picked on March 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -2.38
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CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $176.75 +18.25 (+5.69)
We are quickly learning which second level NASDAQ technology
stocks have a chance to come back and CHKP is clearly one of
them. There are two factors that separate CHKP from so many
other NASDAQ stocks that got destroyed earlier this week. First,
CHKP is profitable and second; CHKP is the leader of a fast
growing sector, security software. In light of these facts, it
is not surprising that CHKP has enjoyed a nice comeback along
with the overall market when many other stocks were left behind.
Helping today's strong performance was an upgrade from Sands
Brothers. Their analyst raised CHKP to a Strong Buy from
Neutral. CHKP is building a nice pattern off of Tuesday's
decimating spike down. Since that low, the stock has taken out
the previous day's high two days in a row on good volume. Our
aggressive buy point has been triggered and we are comfortable
holding the stock as long as this pattern continues. Volume has
been very good and OBV is very strong. We see CHKP testing
resistance at $180 soon and probably $185 shortly thereafter. If
CHKP is going to pull back and consolidate its recent advance,
$185 would be a good point to slow down because that price
represents a small top before the correction earlier this week.
A move below minor support at $160 (5-dma) should make you
cautious, although there is light support above that at the 10-
dma of $175, supported better at $170. Earnings are April 12th
and we will be exiting this position no later than just before
the announcement.
Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked +7.25
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EMC - EMC Corporation $133.13 +6.63 (+7.13)
Owning a well-established company is critical during volatile
market swings, especially when it's a technology company. Being
well established, EMC has held up very nicely during a turbulent
week for technology stocks. Recognizing this, Goldman Sachs
announced today that EMC had been named to its "super seven"
technology companies. The "super seven" are picked by Goldman as
the preferred high-technology companies to hold during a volatile
market. True to form, EMC closed 5.13% up on the day, finishing
off at $133.00. After finding continued support along the 50-dma,
shares heading sharply higher today with an opening gap. Running
into the 10-dma ($132.60), EMC shares found a sizeable amount of
resistance at this level. Further resistance will likely come at
52-week highs ($145.44.). Look for a price run through these
levels to trigger potential plays. Intra-day support is light at
$127, propped up by a 30-dma ($127.70). Heavier support will
remain at the 50-dma, currently at $122.18. Use hard bounces off
support as opportunities to open positions. Look to exit one day
ahead of the earnings announcement of 4/26.
Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -2.00
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GLW - Corning Incorporated $175.63 +9.63 (-18.38)
Corning makes no secrets about wanting to be the world leader in
fiber optic supply. GLW's aggressive growth strategy is
responsible for its quick rise as a leading provider of fiber
optics equipment. Earlier in the week, GLW made further attempts
to increase market share by proposing to buy NetOptix Corporation
for $2 billion. Corning said the deal would most likely lower
earnings slightly this year, while adding profits in 2001. The
acquisition would be good for future growth and may have helped
stabilize the stock this week. After rebounding off our mentioned
level of support of $160 on Wednesday, shares managed further
gains today, closing at $175.63. Stronger volume will likely be
required to push shares above its next major resistance at the
50-dma of $183.67. With an advance through this level, we
anticipate stiff resistance at the double century mark ($200).
Look for support to continue to remain heavy at the $160 level,
and further down at $145. Use hard bounces off these level to
signal potential plays. We'll hold our positions through the
Shareholders meeting of 4/27, anticipating a split announcement
that might follow.
Picked on March 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -38.76
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $148.13 +6.13 (+15.57)
Expanding on its commitment to enhance more growth through
Internet applications, Hewlett-Packard announced that they would
now be working to provide e-service technology to mobile-device
users. An agreement with Everypath Incorporated, a leading mobile
application services provider, will allow users of mobile devices
(I.E. the Palm VII organizer) to connect to highly advanced Web
services. With good news continuing to flow in, HWP saw little
reason to stop its upward progression. The stock finished higher
on Thursday, climbing 6.13 points, up 4.31% on the day. A strong
run through resistance at $140 sent shares moving higher the last
two days. The run was ignited by good volume (5.22m), which sent
shares to intraday highs of $148.18 before closing at $142 on
Wednesday. Today, an opening gap lifted prices higher, with a
close just above the previous consolidation of last week. Look
for short-term resistance to be felt at the buck fifty mark, and
just higher at the 52-week high of $155.50. With price moves
through resistance, look to add to existing positions, when
combined with increasing volume. Solid support should be present
at $140 (previously resistance), which is reinforced by the 20
and 30-dma's ($140.24 and $139.38). Secondary support should be
firm at the 50-dma of $132.03. Exits should be in place ahead of
earnings, unless announced beforehand.
Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +15.12
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INKT - Inktomi $155.88 -4.50 (-39.12)
The jury is still out as to whether this Internet software
company is going to be a continued market performance leader or
if it is going to be left behind. We still like the fact that
the stock is trading at levels similar to those when it announced
its last split back in December. If the stock can just hold on
until earnings, we might get a pop just before the announcement.
INKT is one of the many leading Internet plays that have been
under pressure lately. The ho-hum response to Yahoo!'s earnings
did not help much. Despite a blowout quarter, Yahoo! suffered a
bit of selling pressure. If YHOO couldn't rally with those
numbers, what is INKT going to have to report to make the stock
move higher? We will definitely exit this position before the
earnings announcement. INKT did not suffer too much damage today
by dropping along with Yahoo!. The stock is still a bit oversold
on a RSI and MACD basis but it is also trying to climb out of a
steep downtrend. We recommend being very cautious with this play
and we would not hold on to it for very long if it starts to
rollover below support of $150. It is currently sitting just
above the 50-dma at $155. A move above $175, albeit a bit far
away, would be a good momentum buying opportunity because at that
price it would appear that INKT would be breaking its downtrend.
Earnings are April 18th and we will be dropping this play before
then.
Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked -2.12
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INTC - Intel Corporation $129.81 -0.60 (-2.13)
Staying on the cutting edge of Internet technology and services,
Intel introduced on Wednesday their own Wireless Networking
products for personal computers. The products will allow users to
link Internet access, files and printers with wireless
connections from their personal computers. Intel is betting that
networking and communication products will enhance profitability
as its traditional microprocessor business slows. As for the
stock performance, INTC shares have remained in consolidated zone
($134 to $125) this week, as prices prepare for a run. We
anticipate Intel's rebound to be signaled by a break through the
upper consolidation range ($134), bolstered by a 10-dma or
$133.12. Further resistance will likely be encountered at the
$140 mark, and higher still at the 52-week high of $144.13. Watch
for volume to exceed 25.0m on price runs through resistance prior
to opening new positions. Support should be present at the lower
end of the consolidation range ($125), reinforced by the 30-dma
($126.06) and still further down at 50-dma of $117.85. We are
anticipating a price advance shortly and recommend opening plays
with strong runs through resistance, or on hard bounces off
support. Plan to exit the stock before the close of 4/18, as
earnings will be announced afterward.
Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked -0.06
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LXK - LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP $111.25 +3.31 (+5.50)
The healthy growth of laser and inkjet printers has augured well
for LXK, who is a leading supplier of printing products and
solutions. Focused on this growth, LXK's long term goal is to
maintain a growth rate of 20%. To sustain this rate, LXK's
strategy is to provide a steady flow of new and enhanced product
introductions. This strategy has enabled the company to gain 40%
percent market share and support a lofty stock valuation. As for
current price action, today saw shares break out of a weeklong
consolidation to close at $111.25. The strong move up was halted
when prices ran into resistance along their 50-dma of $114.66. A
close above this level will be our primary indication that prices
are ready to advance further. Beyond this level, $120, which is
bolstered by both the 20 and 30-dma's ($119.13 and $118.94),
promises to offer stiff resistance. Look for support to now be
found at the $109 level (previously resistance). Further still,
the century mark should provide for a strong level of secondary
support, given any future retracements. Potential entries can be
initiated by prices bounces off support or advances through
resistance, when accompanied by good volume (1.5m or better) on
the day. We'll keep you posted on any split announcement that may
follow the Shareholders meeting of 4/27.
Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked +5.00
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MER - Merrill Lynch $103.56 +4.31 (-1.44)
A good comeback today for MER as it climbed back over the
important $100 level. The stock had been kind of floundering
there through the comeback. We still believe that there is a
very real possibility that MER will split its shares during the
coming mid-April earnings report. MER is a classic NYSE stock
because it usually splits once the stock reaches triple digits.
Perhaps there is some concern out there that the major firms were
hit with a bunch of margin calls this week but the incredible
volume should more than make up any loss in confidence in the
Company's analysts through commissions. MER looks pretty good
here. We had mentioned before that a move back above $100 could
be indicative of the stock's ability to climb through all of the
stops and small overhead resistance. A couple more days like
today and we could see the stock challenging the old high of
$115.19. But first things first. We would like to see MER climb
above the next hurdle of $105 before becoming more confident.
$100 is now support and bounces off of that price can also be
bought. We will be exiting this position before the earnings are
released. That date is approximately April 17th. We hope to
have a confirmed date soon.
Picked on March 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -6.38
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QCOM - Qualcomm $139.13 -2.13 (-10.19)
It is pretty surprising that this industry leader has vastly
underperformed during the NASDAQ comeback that has included a
return to strength for one formerly strong group, Semiconductors,
and one bottom fishing group, Biotechs. So what is the problem
with QCOM? It is universally praised by the research community
and it was looking very good technically before the correction.
Another lesson of "you can not fight the tape", and we won't.
With three major technical indicators rolling over (RSI, OBV and
MACD) we have to keep our stops tight, just in case QCOM decides
to roll back down to the low end of the range, just above $120.
The stock needs to hold $137 for us to stay interested in this
play. It is especially important that QCOM stay above its 50-DMA
at $135. A drop below this price and we will be removing this
play from our list. It is not all doom and gloom for QCOM.
Earnings are coming out April 18th and we still may get a run
into the announcement. As always, we will be exiting this
position before earnings are released.
Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -15.69
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TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $91.94 +2.81 (-24.75)
Tumbleweed Communications is making a big comeback. On Wednesday,
after a quick dip to $74.50, the stock rallied, closing the day
with a $7.13 gain. Thursday's action was a little bit more
worrisome as shares of TMWD gapped up but closed near their lows.
This could be a set-up for more weakness on Friday. Hopefully, it
will turn out to be a consolidation move rather than a re-test of
the lows. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/19
and we are looking for a split announcement to come out with the
earnings release. As for the stock, support is the 50-dma at $88
with stronger support at $80. Set stops under $80 to limit
losses. Resistance is Thursday's intra-day high at $96 and then
the century mark. Use a bounce off of $88 or a move above $96 to
initiate new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector
momentum before starting new plays. Look to exit in front of
earnings.
Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked +9.94
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
AXP - American Express $141.00 -3.50 (-7.94)
Traders have moved beyond the relative safety of the financials
and so will we. If you had been following our recommendation on
this play, you are probably not surprised at all that we are
dropping this one. In fact, you should have been able to take a
very nice profit a couple of days ago. AXP is fast approaching
some nice support levels that could prove to be good entry points
if they hold. We will continue to monitor AXP's progress. $135
might be a good place to catch a bounce.
Picked on March 9th @ $122.75
Profit/Loss = +18.25 (+15%)
Best profit = +35.06 (+29%)
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $212.50 +13.50 (-10.00)
Strength in numbers has been a philosophy at Nokia, who has
built-out their wireless infrastructure by a steady flow of
service agreements. Today's announcement with Orange Plc Group,
who provides a wide range of UK personal communication services,
helped to further Nokia's wireless build out. Under the
agreement, Nokia will supply Orange with enhanced mobile
solutions for their service network. "Nokia's solutions will
enable Orange to enhance the capacity and quality of the network,
but more importantly, will offer substantial cost benefits as
they evolve toward future mobile Internet services," said VP of
Nokia Networks West Europe, Peter Kuhne. This positive news
helped to top off several series of profitable plays for us,
ahead of today's exit. We'll continue to update on NOK's
prospects, as future plays present themselves.
Picked on March 5th @ $221.00
Profit/Loss = -8.50 (-4%)
Best Profit = +12.38 (+6%)
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TERN - Terayon Communications $174.81 -13.19 (-30.19)
Terayon has been struggling lately. The stock could not rally
despite positive action on the NASDAQ. Resistance at the $200
mark and the value call have temporarily capped the stock and we
are not too excited about its short-term prospects. This is a
momentum stock and the momentum in TERN is weak right now.
Therefore, we are dropping the stock tonight and moving on to
better things. If you haven't been stopped out yet set tight
stops under $173 and look to exit into strength on Friday.
Picked on March 30th @ $211.75
Profit/Loss = -36.94 (-17%)
Best Profit = +10.56 (+5%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
YHOO - Yahoo! Inc. $154.00 -11.56 (-17.38)
If you have been following this play, then you already know that
we actually dropped this stock yesterday, right before the
earnings announcement. We are sure glad we did, because Yahoo!
continued its pattern of selling off after the report. Yahoo!
released wonderful numbers that exhibited phenomenal growth but
it was not enough to please the momentum crowd. Considering all
of the target price increases and positive analyst comments
today, we strongly suspect that we will be playing Yahoo! again,
once it digests this wave of selling.
Picked March 21st @ $191.75
Profit/Loss = -26.19 (-14%) (Calculated on Wednesday's close.)
Best profit = +13.88 (+7%)
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