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Play Updates
Tuesday, April 04, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

ASML - ASM Lithography $107.25 +7.25 (-4.50)

Follow the leader seems to be the mantra for this semiconductor tools company. Applied Materials is the unquestioned leader of this group and the Company's stock was up almost all day today, actually up almost 4 points this week. An incredible performance for such a bad market for tech stocks in general. ASML has been almost as strong this week and we certainly do not have a problem buying a stock in the strongest tech sector of the week. The reason for the strength is because semiconductor production is exploding and manufacturers need all of the cutting edge tools they can get their hands on to keep production rolling. ASML is only too happy to help. Earnings are widely anticipated to be very strong for this sector, another reason why investors are seeking out these stocks as a "safe" haven. One word of caution about this play. Although the Company has already announced a 3:1 split back in Jan, which was subsequently approved by shareholders on Mar 23, we still do not know exactly when the split will be payable, nor do we know when earnings will be announced. If you go into this play, please keep checking the updates for these important details. ASML may have made a double bottom off of solid support today. The technical picture appears to be very bullish, with the stock closing up on the day and over $100 and on huge volume. $110 is offering some resistance. If the stock can climb over that number, we could have a nice follow through rally. You can also attempt to buy bounces off of $100. If the stock rolls over below $100, step to the sidelines and make sure it can hold support at the previous two day's low of $97.50.


Picked on Apr 4th @ $107.25
Change since picked 0.00  



CMRC - Commerce One $121.00 +3.00 (-28.25)

Commerce One is one of the leading names in the B2B movement. The Company provides an e-commerce transaction platform for a wide variety of business segments. Their trading communities enable buyers and sellers of goods and services to do business over the Internet. This stock has been smoking since its IPO last summer. Only recently, CMRC and its B2B peers have been suffering from sector rotation out of B2B stocks. The stock is now over 50% off of its highs and we believe that it may have hit bottom on Tuesday. Especially since Ariba (ARBA), the other B2B giant, pre- announced higher-than expected revenue for the quarter. This should provide enough momentum to carry the stock out of its downward spiral as we move closer to the 2:1 stock split on 4/19. There is support at $108 with psychological support at the century mark. Resistance is just above today's high at $125. Heavier resistance may be as high as $143. Look for a bounce off of $108 or a move above $125 to initiate new positions. Confirm market sentiment and B2B sector momentum before starting new plays. Exit no later than 4/18.


Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked +0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

INKT - Inktomi $158.00 -9.44 (-37.00)

Even if Internet startups get killed by the market, they are still going to have to purchase software from Inktomi to stay competitive. We are trying to identify the winners and the comeback stocks in the NASDAQ, and we feel that INKT's solid business model will attract investors back into the stock as they abandon younger and more speculative issues. INKT last split 2:1 in December, when the stock was at $189.44. The split was announced when the stock was at $145.00, which is, of course, where the stock is now, so another split announcement is certainly not out of the question. Especially with earnings coming out on April 18th, which would be an excellent time to announce a split. The Company currently has enough authorized shares to split 2:1 without a vote to increase shares. It was announced today that INKT will be one of 30 companies to band together in an attempt to standardize Internet content, further concretizing the Company's leadership role in this sector. INKT shareholders exited with an amazing flurry of selling today, driving the stock all the way down to $112.50. What was equally impressive was the rally back right to resistance. We would buy INKT if it crosses above the $160 resistance. Otherwise, we would avoid the stock in the short term just in case the NASDAQ correction is not over. If you do buy this stock, do not give it too much room to the downside because the selling could be ugly. Volume was huge and the stock did manage to close in the top third of its range, which is slightly bullish. We will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings or after a split announcement if that should occur before the earnings release.


Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked 0.00



LXK - Lexmark International Group $106.25 +0.19 (+0.50)

Tied directly to the build-out of personal computers, printers have become an integral part of the computing process. A leading manufacturer of laser and inkjet printers, Lexmark has been expanding their revenues at a steady, double-digit pace. The shift to sub-$1000 computers has enabled LXK to maintain their rapid growth. The company has been mostly known for providing top quality printers to the sub-$300 market, and will likely remain the dominant leader in the group. This immense level of growth for sub-$1000 PC's has helped to push prices up near their most recent split-level. Sound like a good split candidate? We think so as well. Especially given that the Company recently filed a Def-14A proxy statement, in which they indicated that a vote to increase the authorized shares from 450m to 900m would occur at the Annual Shareholders Meeting, scheduled for April 27, 2000. Until recently, LXK had been trading near its 52-week highs, but has since lost some ground in the NASDAQ correction. The stock now seems to have found a solid support level at the century mark, as witnessed by a 4-day consolidation on better than average volume. Future bounces off the $100 mark should provide for good entries when volume confirms the bounce. Look for prices to climb above the 50-dma ($114.10), to signal a true reversal to higher prices. Resistance also looks strong at $120, where the 20 and 30-dma's reside ($120.71 and $119.35). Possible plays can be initiated when prices run through resistance or give hard bounces off support. We'll plan on holding our positions through the Shareholder's meeting of 4/27, in anticipation of a split announcement to follow.


Picked on April 4th @ $106.25 
Change since picked 0.00



TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $82.00 -6.88 (-34.69)

Tumbleweed Communications provides secure Internet communication services for businesses worldwide. Their product suite, the Tumbleweed Integrated Messaging Exchange (Tumbleweed IME), is a software and services solution that provides secure physical delivery, e-mail and Web messaging in a comprehensive, Internet- based system. Their service provider customers are able to offer their end-user customers multi-level security, universal access, end-to-end trackability, automated delivery and personalized communications on an outsource basis. The stock went public in the midst of the Summer Sell-Off 99' and it struggled for a couple of months. In late October, TMWD was trading around $20. The stock then took off to a high of $136 on 3/14. The latest round of NASDAQ weakness has taken shares of TMWD down to a relative low of $55 on Tuesday. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/19 and we are looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release. They already have enough shares for a split so they could announce a split at any time. In the meantime, mild support is $80 with strong support at the 100-dma, currently at $73. Resistance is Tuesday's intra-day high at $92. Further resistance may show up at the century mark. Use a bounce off of $80 or a move above $92 to start new plays. Open new positions on strong volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of earnings.


Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked +0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

APH - Amphenol Corporation $101.00 +0.31 (-1.25)

Amphenol bounces back. On Tuesday, shares of APH dipped below its 20-dma but rallied back as the broader markets returned to sanity. The stock closed above the important $100 support, showing signs of investor confidence in the share price. The Company has already pre-announced an earnings surprise and this should keep the stock alive through the formal earnings announcement on 4/19. They also announced a 2:1 stock split, payable on or about 4/25 pending mail-in shareholder approval by 4/18. Looking at the chart, APH has support at the $100 mark with underlying technical support at $98 and then $93, the 10-dma and the 20-dma respectively. Set stops under $93 as protection. Resistance remains at the all time high of $104 and then potentially $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $104 to open new positions. Start new plays on strong volume, only in a rising market. Exit in front of earnings.


Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked -1.25



AXP - American Express $147.00 -8.50 (-1.94)

Are you kidding me? Two of the most volatile days in history and AXP is down 2 points for the week. Yesterday, AXP experienced exactly the kind of rally we expected, with money flowing out of the tech laden NASDAQ and into the more stable Blue Chips of the DOW. We feel that it is very significant that AXP got itself caught up in the extreme intraday selling that saw the DOW down over 500 points, and yet, missed most of the subsequent rally back. AXP did close around its support, which is why we are keeping this play, but we need to watch and see if the rally in the financial stocks is over. Today's comeback, that ignored the Financials, seems to indicate that the bottom fishers are looking elsewhere. We were definitely faked out by AXP. We got our buy point with the stock climbing back above $150. If you kept your stops in there, you probably took a small hit as the stock plummeted down to its old support of $143 before bouncing. A retest of $143 in the next couple days could provide a good entry point if the stock could hold support there. We definitely would not be surprised if AXP gets stuck in a trading range between $143 and the $155 resistance. Perhaps the best thing we can say about AXP is that its ticker symbol is only three letters. We will be exiting this position before the April 24th earnings release.


Picked on March 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +24.25



CHINA - China.com Corporation $57.75 -6.50 (-23.25)

With Internet use increasing steadily from 1.57 million users in 1997, to 4.88 million users in 1999, few will argue the growth potential of the world's most populous country. This potential has been well recognized by investors, however, recent selling in the technology sector has had a negative effect on the stock. Still searching for its bottom, CHINA has continued its slide this week to lower levels. As a high potential Internet stock, it's not surprising that CHINA caught the worst of this week's correction in the NASDAQ. However, at current levels, we believe that this stock is clearly oversold, and does represent a good opportunity for near-term appreciation. To signal a reversal, look for prices to break above initial resistance at $70, with strong volume (3.0m or better). A good lead-in to this scenario may begin with a positive news announcement. Given this does occur, look to $80 for resistance and higher still at the 50-dma ($105.71). Entries can be triggered when prices run through resistance, combined with notable volume. As for support, current levels may hold light support, while heavier support should come at $50. Look to enter off support, when prices give a hard bounce. The Shareholders Meeting is set for 4/28, at which time the payable date should be announced. Look to exit in front of the payable date.


Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -22.06



EXDS - Exodus Communications $136.94 +14.13 (-3.56)

Devising state of the art technologies to assist Web-based business with mission-critical Internet solutions, EXDS is gaining in popularity, as Internet growth remains strong. This rapid growth has helped to transform EXDS into an amazing $25 billion market capitalized company. Given the company's strength in the new economy group, shares have been able to sustain much of their valuation over the recent market meltdown. As for today's price action, a low of $92 was followed by a 44.94 point recovery to $136.94. Based on this type of volatility, today likely marked the height of the decline. Strong volume (16.2m) was also a good indication that the near-term trend may shift upward. We're now looking for the price to break back above its 50-dma ($139.29), as an early confirmation of this shift. If this scenario does unfold, look for more resistance to be felt at the buck fifty mark, bolstered by the 30-dma ($151.03), before trending higher. As for support, the $120 mark should offer our first level. Beyond this point, the century mark should provide greater resistance. Target your entries when prices bounce off support or run through these resistance levels. Design your exits ahead of the earnings announcement of 4/20.


Picked on March 19th @ $151.25
Change since picked -14.31



KSS - Kohl's Corporation $99.63 -4.50 (-2.88)

Kohl's has been heating up lately. The stock has made new highs in the last three sessions as the non-tech stocks take center stage. On Tuesday, KSS suffered from a round of profit-taking and general weakness on the NYSE. The stock held at support and rebounded slightly at the end of the day. There may be additional consolidation at current levels before it breaks out. We expect the momentum to pick up as we move closer to the 4/24 payable date of the 2:1 split. Going forward, support is now down to the 10-dma, at $97, with stronger support at the 15-dma, now at $95. Place stops under $95 to limit losses. Resistance is $105 and then $110. Look for a bounce off of $97 or a breakout above $105 to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market with retail sector momentum. Plan to exit by 4/20.


Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +0.06



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $71.56 -12.25 (-25.19)

Metromedia Fiber Network has been under serious pressure this week. There is no news out on the Company and the stock is being punished, as there is no reason for investors to rush back into MFNX, leaving only the sellers to have their way with the stock. On Tuesday, MFNX was as low as $59 before bouncing back in the afternoon. Hopefully, you had your stops in and you are out and looking to get back in. The 2:1 split is payable on 4/17 and this should provide some positive momentum as we get closer to the payable date. In the meantime, support has dropped down to $70, with stronger support at the 100-dma, now at $64. Place stops under $64 to avoid additional losses. Resistance is currently $83 and then $97. Start new plays on a bounce off of $70 or a breakout above $83. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market. Exit no later than 4/14.


Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -26.50



NOK - Nokia Corp. $204.75 -1.00 (-17.00)

In an effort to further expand their business, Nokia announced another multi-million dollar deal this week, despite a turbulent market for large-cap technology stocks. Monday's announcement will team Nokia with VoiceStream Wireless in a multi-year deal estimated at $500 million. Under the agreement, Nokia will supply VoiceStream with wireless handsets, while Nokia will be able to harness wireless application-based protocol from VoiceStream's mobile Internet services. Commenting on the deal, Jyrki Salo, Senior Vice President of Nokia Networks North America, stated, "This new contract underscores our commitment to the evolution and development of both VoiceStream and the emerging Mobile Information Society." Positive news has helped maintain NOK valuations. The stock did manage to shake off a large intra-day decline and close above its 50-dma ($203.45). Volume off the intra-day low was strong and provides us with an indication of a likely rebound. Although our support levels have been retraced, market momentum was mainly responsible and not NOK in particular. Future support will likely be found at the 50-dma and further down at the $196 mark. With bounces off these levels, look for the stock to find resistance at its previous support levels; $210 and $220. Bounces off support or strong advances through resistance will provide good entries, when bolstered by good volume. Exits should be initiated ahead of the payable date of 4/7, per our policy.


Picked on March 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -16.25



NT - Nortel Networks $117.59 -2.16 (-11.56)

No hiding back home on the Toronto Exchange for this monster communications equipment stock. If you are in techs, the sellers found you so far this week. But if you are looking for a place to put your cash to work, NT would be an excellent choice and we feel fund managers sitting on a bunch of cash will probably feel the same way when things settle down. NT has a solid earnings record, with frequent upside surprises and a huge and stable business. Stocks that are deficient in these characteristics are getting killed and may disappear altogether. Meanwhile, the giants, like NT, will be able to survive. NT was beat up pretty good today but we like how it bounced off of support, just above the psychologically important $100 level. We would have been more impressed (or relieved) if the stock could have made it all the back into its recent trading range of $120-$130. In fact, a move above $120 could be bought. NT and Solectron entered an agreement today, whereby Solectron will acquire several NT manufacturing facilities and NT will turn around and outsource its manufacturing to Solectron. It is a perfect example of the Capitalism theory of efficiency (each member of the economy contributes to overall growth by specializing in those areas that it is most efficient at) and it should benefit both companies. If you are putting money to work in this market right now, you have to be extremely careful. We could easily roll back over with some more panic selling in a heartbeat. Double spike bottoms are not that uncommon. We suggest that in this climate, you do not let any winners become losers. We will be exiting this position before the earnings release on April 25th.


Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -19.66



NXTL - Nextel $135.81 -6.81 (-12.44)

Nextel was slammed on Tuesday, falling over 18 points in the heat of a market-wide sell-off. The stock recovered late in the day along with the rest of the market. Clearly, the stock is being driven by momentum and momentum has been pretty negative lately. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26 and the 2:1 stock split is payable on 6/6, so there is still time to get in. As for the stock, NXTL has support at $130 with stronger support at $123. Set tight stops under $123 as protection. Resistance is now $142 and then the 20-dma at $148. Use a bounce off of $130 or a move above $142 on heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before initiating new plays. We recommend an exit in front of earnings and a possible re-entry closer to the payable date.


Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -12.81



TERN - Terayon Communications $197.13 +31.56 (-7.88)

This week's action on Terayon has been dicey to say the least. Shares of TERN fell hard as the NASDAQ tanked, hitting an intra- day low of $122.50 on Tuesday. However, as the NASDAQ recovered, so did TERN, shooting up over 75 points, to close the day with a $31.56 gain on 2 x ADV. The stock has now filled in all of the gaps from its mid-February breakout and showed real strength late in the day. Hopefully, the worst is over. The Company currently has a 2:1 stock split pending. They have scheduled a Special Shareholder Meeting on 4/11, when the shareholders will vote on the proposed increase in authorized shares. The Company should set the payable date at that time if the share increase is approved. For now, there is support at $165 with stronger support at $150. Set stops under $150 to put a cap on potential losses. Resistance is $200 and then $211. Start new plays on a bounce off of $165 or move above $200 on heavy volume. Open new positions only in a rising market with positive sector momentum. We will set an exit date as soon as the Company sets a payable date.


Picked on March 30th @ $211.75
Change since picked -14.63


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

BRCM - Broadcom $204.00 -15.06 (-38.87)

Things got a little out of control on Tuesday as shares of Broadcom fell down to an intra-day low of $152.13 by midday. BRCM hit its 100-dma and then proceeded to move higher. By the end of the day, the stock had moved back up above the $200 mark on 5 x ADV. Judging by the volume and the major intra-day reversal, this may have been a short-term bottom on BRCM. The Company is announcing earnings in April and they also have their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares and we are looking for a split announcement either with earnings or following the Annual Meeting. In the short-term, the stock has psychological support at $200. Technical support is the 50-dma at $198 and then $180. Set stops under $180 to protect yourself. Resistance has come down to the 5-dma at $219 and then the 10-dma at $227. Initiate new plays on a bounce off of $200 or a move above $219. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting, unless the earnings announcement comes before the meeting. If this is the case, plan to exit prior to the earnings release.


Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -8.81



C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.00 -3.00 (-0.88)

Citigroup was one of the single best performers of the DOW yesterday as the flight to quality helped the stock to rally to a new all-time high. We even had a bit of a follow through in the early going today. But sentiment changed quickly as the unprecedented comeback rally saw the shares of major tech stocks as well as value stocks get the bulk of the cash while Financial stocks, yesterday's favorites, were left wondering were all of their new friends went. It is our policy to keep a bullish rating on any play that makes a new high and pulls back to major support. We will keep an eye on Citigroup to see if the interest in the Financials increases again. Otherwise, look for the stock to trade in a range between $58-$63. We do expect the Company to announce a favorable earnings report and also announce a 3:2 split. If you had followed our recommendation from Sunday's write-up, you would have been whipsawed with a 5-point loss. On the news front, Citigroup entered an agreement with Bottomline Technologies, which will provide Citigroup with an Internet-based billing service. These kind of partnerships have been looked upon favorably by the market because they are indicative of how "Old" economy stocks are benefiting from Internet based technologies. Early strength in the stock can probably be bought, but be cautious if the stock drops below $58 again. We will be exiting this position before the estimated earnings date of April 18th.


Picked on March 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -2.69



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $160.36 +25.48 (-10.71)

We try and cover all of the bases with three updates a week. But if ever there was a time for an intraday report, today was it, especially for CHKP. Yesterday's good news was largely ignored as the stock plunged. Terayon Communications (TERN) announced that they are teaming up with CHKP to secure residences with broadband cable modem Internet access which offers a secure and safe connection. You probably should have been stopped out of CHKP yesterday as it broke below support of $155. Today, the carnage continued driving the stock all the way down to $115.94. So why did CHKP rally back and become one of the single best performers of the day? Our hunch is that, even though CHKP would be considered a secondary technology stock, the Company does have a solid earnings record. The focus of the market now is on the most predictable stocks and all of the stocks that are accumulating bounce-back cash have earnings. CHKP is not out of the woods just yet, despite being extremely oversold on a RSI basis. If CHKP can rally and close above resistance at $170 and hold there for a couple of days, we will be more confident that the stock is on its way back. Be warned though, CHKP is still in a very strong downtrend, but we are, nevertheless, cautiously bullish about CHKP, and we believe that it has put in a major bottom here. Support is $131, but we would not add any new positions if CHKP starts heading lower. If it really gets creamed, you can probably buy the stock in the $130's. We will be exiting this position before the April 12th earnings announcement.


Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked -9.14



EMC - EMC Corporation $128.00 +1.00 (+0.62)

With its fundamentals intact, EMC saw little reason to stay in negative territory and managed to hold off with a 2-point gain this week. An excited market correction left few technology stocks unscathed, as over-priced high flyers were forced back to more reasonable levels. Although this sell-off was generally broad based, several of the well-established large-cap companies held their ground with more conviction. As one of these companies, EMC was able to fire off its daily lows and close in positive territory on the day. Holding strong to the 50-dma, this support level provides us with good intra-day buying opportunities. More support will likely follow at $115, given further weakness in the market pulls prices lower. However, if the stock is able to work its way higher, it may find possible resistance at the 10-dma ($133.85), and still higher at the stock's 52-week high of $145.44. In order for advances through resistance to signal potential entries, we're looking for volume to remain strong (7.0m or better). Good volume will help to confirm demand when prices run higher. We will plan to exit our positions in front of the upcoming earnings report of 4/26, per our normal policy.


Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -7.13



GLW - Corning Incorporated $168.00 -12.94 (-26.00)

Business is going well for Corning, who announced this week that they will need an additional optical amplifier manufacturing plant to keep up with demand. As a strong hint for steady demand of the company's products, a new plant is a classic indication of a growing business. On Monday, Corning's CEO, Roger Ackerman, stated, "We are announcing today that Corning has taken another step in its evolution of becoming the world's leading supplier of photonic products. The insatiable demand for bandwidth, delivered at the speed, efficiency and cost possible only through optical networks, continues to accelerate demand for our products". Although an additional plant will translate into future revenues for the company, the stock did give back some of its gains on the market sell-off. Giving back 28 points from Monday's open, the stock did manage to rebound well off its low levels of the day. Strong volume (6.7m) that accompanied this rebound makes a trend reversal probable. We expect prices to initially find a fair amount of resistance at the 50-dma ($182.48), before running higher. A break through the 50-dma will give us good confirmation that the stock is ready to rebound. If the break does occur, expect the next level of resistance to be found at the double century mark ($200). If the stock finds solid resistance at the 50-dma, or at current levels, then expect the $160 mark to hold firm support. Confirm market momentum and sector trends in the fiber optic group, prior to opening new positions. As per our policy, hold positions through the Shareholder's meeting of 4/27, anticipating a split announcement that may follow.


Picked on March 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -46.38



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $138.13 +5.56 (+5.56)

Looking at the Hewlett-Packard chart this week, one would never suspect the kind of wild ride that nearly all high-tech stocks have experienced. The technology laden NASDAQ Composite Index was down nearly 17% percent on the week until a powerful intra-day recovery pushed prices up 499 points in the last 4 hours of trading. Even more amazing than the volatility of the Composite Index was the resilience of HWP, which managed to gain 5.56 points so far this week. On Monday, HWP announced a new line of highly successful LaserJet Printers, which was likely responsible for keeping the shares above water. As previously mentioned, support along the 50-dma ($130.65) was enough to sustain a market wide sell off. This level continues to be our initial support, and would provide us with good intra-day entries, should the stock continue to bounce off this mark. Possible declines through this level will likely encounter secondary support at $125. However, we believe that HWP, who has been strong in a weak market, will react favorably to advances in a strong market. An advance should find some resistance at $140, bolstered by a 10 and 20-dma ($139.17 and $140.38). Look for strong volume (4.5m or better) to push prices to stiffer resistance at $145. Buy opportunities will occur when the stock advances strongly through these levels. Plan to exit ahead of earnings, unless a split announcement comes prior.


Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +5.13



INTC - Intel Corporation $132.75 +2.13 (+0.82)

Sharing in an eruptive day with the NASDAQ Composite, Intel shares managed to bear up intra-day losses and close with a strong run into positive territory. With the lack of any negative news announcements, INTC gained 13.75 points from its daily low to close up 1.62%. This strong recovery was witnessed by a steady flow of good volume (43.7m daily), as prices were nearing their intra-day lows. Adding an extra boost to the rebound, the stock was carried higher by a sharp turnaround in the NASDAQ. The rebound was able to carry shares above previous resistance at $130, reinforced by the 20-dma ($130.04). This will now become our first support level, with stronger support down at the $124 mark. Hard bounces off these levels, when accompanied by good volume (35.0m or better) will present good entry points. Look for first level of resistance to be found at $135, bolstered by a 10- dma ($135.88). Advances through this level should find secondary resistance at the $140 mark. Be open to taking profits at these resistance levels if strong volume can't confirm a break. Our strategy and policy is to close positions ahead of the earnings announcement due out 4/18.


Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +2.87



MER - Merrill Lynch $99.25 -7.88 (-5.75)

Not a great performance for a Company whose symbol is a bull. Yesterday was a pretty good day for MER, but the stock clearly violated the important $100 support level today. If you had stopped out there, you would have avoided the pain and suffering of watching the stock drop all the way to $88.50. The farther the stock drops below $100, the less likely there will be a split. A close above $100 would indicate to us that the carnage is over and all of the stops have been washed out of this stock, giving it possibly enough momentum to rally back to the highs. It was kind of surprising that Brokerage stocks did not rally a bit more considering all of the commissions they inevitably received today due to record volume. Earnings should be around April 17th. There should be some interest in the stock in anticipation of a great quarterly announcement and the possibility of a split. MER established new support at its low today but we would be more comfortable with a tighter stop halfway to that level at around $95. We will be exiting this position before the earnings release.


Picked on March 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -10.69



QCOM - Qualcomm $146.63 +5.88 (-2.68)

QCOM has handled the incredible NASDAQ selling pressure with a lot of resiliency. We attribute this to the fact that QCOM is a leader in its field and is considered to be one of the long-term survivors after this tech wreck is finished. We sure wish we could have been able to contact everyone in that 2 minute window of opportunity when QCOM traded right down to the bottom edge of its trading range today at $124, which proved to be an excellent buying opportunity. With today's comeback and several technical indicators, such as OBV, RSI and MACD remaining bullish, we can remain cautiously optimistic about this play. A move above yesterday's high of $152 and we could really get things going back in the right direction. A move above that price could be a good buy signal. Despite today's huge spike down, we still see support at $140. A bounce off of that price could be another good entry point. Earnings are coming out April 18th and the stock could stage a nice earnings and split anticipation run as long as the NASDAQ has truly stabilized in here. We will be exiting this play no later than just before the earnings release.


Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -8.18



YHOO - Yahoo! Inc. $167.38 +7.25 (-3.99)

Must be Halloween with fear gripping everybody. We wanted an earnings release run for Yahoo! and we figured the odds were good as long as the market climate was favorable. You know the rest. Yahoo! ended the day up nicely and managed to pare its losses for the week, mainly for two reasons; earnings tomorrow and being a sector leading stock. Unfortunately, $160 and $150 support levels were violated. If you were able to watch the market today, you probably got out in the $150's and hopefully got back in when the rally began in earnest. If you are still in this position, look to get out before the market closes tomorrow. If Yahoo! gaps up and starts to rollover again, especially if it drops below the $160 support again, you may not wish to wait for the close before exiting this position.


Picked March 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -24.37


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

GE - General Electric $154.00 -7.00 (-2.13)

General Electric has now spent 3 days in a trading range as the stock consolidates its latest upward run. On Tuesday, the stock broke through support at the 10-dma and we feel that there may be better places to put your money. GE is a great company but the stock is very close to its high, while other stocks are well off of their highs and GE may announce earnings as early as Thursday morning. Therefore, we are dropping this play tonight. We recommend placing stops under $152 and exiting on strength on Wednesday.


Picked on March 28th @ $156.00
Profit/Loss = -2.00 (-1%)
Best Profit = +8.88 (+6%)



MOT - Motorola, Inc. $134.62 -3.62 (-12.38)

The head and shoulders pattern that we warned about on Sunday did forebode a drop in the shares of MOT. Sure enough, it happened and we have to drop this play. We have some misgivings about dropping MOT at this time because it should eventually recover due to its leadership position and strong earnings prospects. And it trades on the NYSE, not the fun house that is the NASDAQ these days. But, with $140 support having been violated and the stock unable to climb above that price during the relief rally, we are lead to believe that we would be better served for now looking elsewhere. We will monitor the stock and look for a possible reentry after the stock consolidates for awhile.


Picked on March 16th @ $151.75
Profit/Loss -17.13 (-11%)
Best profit +17.00 (+11%)



PWR - Quanta Services $53.88 -9.13 (-6.81)

Quanta Services broke down on Tuesday. The stock had been able to hold $56 until Tuesday, when it traded down to $53 and could not rally when the rest of the market recovered. Add a close less than $1 above the intra-day low and you have a broken trend. Due to the recent sell-off and the time left on the split run, we have decided to drop this play tonight to protect ourselves from early selling related to the split. Set stops under $53 and look to exit on strength tomorrow.


Picked on March 23rd @ $62.00
Profit/Loss = -8.13 (-13%)
Best Profit = +8.25 (+13%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

BBY - Best Buy Incorporated $77.50 -5.44 (-8.50)

Best Buy's drop from 52-week highs shows us how quickly profits can be reduced, when negative news is combined with a major sell- off in the market. Today, Prudential announced that they had downgraded BBY shares from a strong buy to an accumulate rating. This announcement sent shares sharply lower, closing down 6.55%. With today's major decline, which also managed to crush our support levels, we feel that better opportunities exist elsewhere. The stock will likely remain a good play for future runs; we'll keep you posted on these developments.


Picked on Mar 30th @ $83.94
Profit/Loss = -6.44 (-8%)
Best Profit = +4.94 (+6%)


 


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