NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
ASML - ASM Lithography $107.25 +7.25 (-4.50)
Follow the leader seems to be the mantra for this semiconductor
tools company. Applied Materials is the unquestioned leader of
this group and the Company's stock was up almost all day today,
actually up almost 4 points this week. An incredible performance
for such a bad market for tech stocks in general. ASML has been
almost as strong this week and we certainly do not have a problem
buying a stock in the strongest tech sector of the week. The
reason for the strength is because semiconductor production is
exploding and manufacturers need all of the cutting edge tools
they can get their hands on to keep production rolling. ASML is
only too happy to help. Earnings are widely anticipated to be
very strong for this sector, another reason why investors are
seeking out these stocks as a "safe" haven. One word of caution
about this play. Although the Company has already announced a
3:1 split back in Jan, which was subsequently approved by
shareholders on Mar 23, we still do not know exactly when the
split will be payable, nor do we know when earnings will be
announced. If you go into this play, please keep checking the
updates for these important details. ASML may have made a double
bottom off of solid support today. The technical picture appears
to be very bullish, with the stock closing up on the day and over
$100 and on huge volume. $110 is offering some resistance. If
the stock can climb over that number, we could have a nice follow
through rally. You can also attempt to buy bounces off of $100.
If the stock rolls over below $100, step to the sidelines and
make sure it can hold support at the previous two day's low of
$97.50.
Picked on Apr 4th @ $107.25
Change since picked 0.00
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CMRC - Commerce One $121.00 +3.00 (-28.25)
Commerce One is one of the leading names in the B2B movement. The
Company provides an e-commerce transaction platform for a wide
variety of business segments. Their trading communities enable
buyers and sellers of goods and services to do business over the
Internet. This stock has been smoking since its IPO last summer.
Only recently, CMRC and its B2B peers have been suffering from
sector rotation out of B2B stocks. The stock is now over 50% off
of its highs and we believe that it may have hit bottom on
Tuesday. Especially since Ariba (ARBA), the other B2B giant, pre-
announced higher-than expected revenue for the quarter. This
should provide enough momentum to carry the stock out of its
downward spiral as we move closer to the 2:1 stock split on 4/19.
There is support at $108 with psychological support at the
century mark. Resistance is just above today's high at $125.
Heavier resistance may be as high as $143. Look for a bounce off
of $108 or a move above $125 to initiate new positions. Confirm
market sentiment and B2B sector momentum before starting new
plays. Exit no later than 4/18.
Picked on April 4th @ $121.00
Change since picked +0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
INKT - Inktomi $158.00 -9.44 (-37.00)
Even if Internet startups get killed by the market, they are
still going to have to purchase software from Inktomi to stay
competitive. We are trying to identify the winners and the
comeback stocks in the NASDAQ, and we feel that INKT's solid
business model will attract investors back into the stock as they
abandon younger and more speculative issues. INKT last split 2:1
in December, when the stock was at $189.44. The split was
announced when the stock was at $145.00, which is, of course,
where the stock is now, so another split announcement is
certainly not out of the question. Especially with earnings
coming out on April 18th, which would be an excellent time to
announce a split. The Company currently has enough authorized
shares to split 2:1 without a vote to increase shares. It was
announced today that INKT will be one of 30 companies to band
together in an attempt to standardize Internet content, further
concretizing the Company's leadership role in this sector. INKT
shareholders exited with an amazing flurry of selling today,
driving the stock all the way down to $112.50. What was equally
impressive was the rally back right to resistance. We would buy
INKT if it crosses above the $160 resistance. Otherwise, we
would avoid the stock in the short term just in case the NASDAQ
correction is not over. If you do buy this stock, do not give it
too much room to the downside because the selling could be ugly.
Volume was huge and the stock did manage to close in the top
third of its range, which is slightly bullish. We will be
exiting this position before the April 18th earnings or after a
split announcement if that should occur before the earnings
release.
Picked on April 4th @ $158.00
Change since picked 0.00
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LXK - Lexmark International Group $106.25 +0.19 (+0.50)
Tied directly to the build-out of personal computers, printers
have become an integral part of the computing process. A leading
manufacturer of laser and inkjet printers, Lexmark has been
expanding their revenues at a steady, double-digit pace. The
shift to sub-$1000 computers has enabled LXK to maintain their
rapid growth. The company has been mostly known for providing top
quality printers to the sub-$300 market, and will likely remain
the dominant leader in the group. This immense level of growth
for sub-$1000 PC's has helped to push prices up near their most
recent split-level. Sound like a good split candidate? We think
so as well. Especially given that the Company recently filed a
Def-14A proxy statement, in which they indicated that a vote to
increase the authorized shares from 450m to 900m would occur at
the Annual Shareholders Meeting, scheduled for April 27, 2000.
Until recently, LXK had been trading near its 52-week highs, but
has since lost some ground in the NASDAQ correction. The stock
now seems to have found a solid support level at the century
mark, as witnessed by a 4-day consolidation on better than
average volume. Future bounces off the $100 mark should provide
for good entries when volume confirms the bounce. Look for prices
to climb above the 50-dma ($114.10), to signal a true reversal to
higher prices. Resistance also looks strong at $120, where the 20
and 30-dma's reside ($120.71 and $119.35). Possible plays can be
initiated when prices run through resistance or give hard bounces
off support. We'll plan on holding our positions through the
Shareholder's meeting of 4/27, in anticipation of a split
announcement to follow.
Picked on April 4th @ $106.25
Change since picked 0.00
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TMWD - Tumbleweed Communications $82.00 -6.88 (-34.69)
Tumbleweed Communications provides secure Internet communication
services for businesses worldwide. Their product suite, the
Tumbleweed Integrated Messaging Exchange (Tumbleweed IME), is a
software and services solution that provides secure physical
delivery, e-mail and Web messaging in a comprehensive, Internet-
based system. Their service provider customers are able to offer
their end-user customers multi-level security, universal access,
end-to-end trackability, automated delivery and personalized
communications on an outsource basis. The stock went public in
the midst of the Summer Sell-Off 99' and it struggled for a
couple of months. In late October, TMWD was trading around $20.
The stock then took off to a high of $136 on 3/14. The latest
round of NASDAQ weakness has taken shares of TMWD down to a
relative low of $55 on Tuesday. The Company is expected to
announce earnings on 4/19 and we are looking for a split
announcement to come out with the earnings release. They already
have enough shares for a split so they could announce a split at
any time. In the meantime, mild support is $80 with strong
support at the 100-dma, currently at $73. Resistance is Tuesday's
intra-day high at $92. Further resistance may show up at the
century mark. Use a bounce off of $80 or a move above $92 to
start new plays. Open new positions on strong volume, only in a
rising market. Plan to exit in front of earnings.
Picked on April 4th @ $82.00
Change since picked +0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
APH - Amphenol Corporation $101.00 +0.31 (-1.25)
Amphenol bounces back. On Tuesday, shares of APH dipped below its
20-dma but rallied back as the broader markets returned to
sanity. The stock closed above the important $100 support,
showing signs of investor confidence in the share price. The
Company has already pre-announced an earnings surprise and this
should keep the stock alive through the formal earnings
announcement on 4/19. They also announced a 2:1 stock split,
payable on or about 4/25 pending mail-in shareholder approval by
4/18. Looking at the chart, APH has support at the $100 mark with
underlying technical support at $98 and then $93, the 10-dma and
the 20-dma respectively. Set stops under $93 as protection.
Resistance remains at the all time high of $104 and then
potentially $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above
$104 to open new positions. Start new plays on strong volume,
only in a rising market. Exit in front of earnings.
Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked -1.25
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AXP - American Express $147.00 -8.50 (-1.94)
Are you kidding me? Two of the most volatile days in history and
AXP is down 2 points for the week. Yesterday, AXP experienced
exactly the kind of rally we expected, with money flowing out of
the tech laden NASDAQ and into the more stable Blue Chips of the
DOW. We feel that it is very significant that AXP got itself
caught up in the extreme intraday selling that saw the DOW down
over 500 points, and yet, missed most of the subsequent rally
back. AXP did close around its support, which is why we are
keeping this play, but we need to watch and see if the rally in
the financial stocks is over. Today's comeback, that ignored the
Financials, seems to indicate that the bottom fishers are looking
elsewhere. We were definitely faked out by AXP. We got our buy
point with the stock climbing back above $150. If you kept your
stops in there, you probably took a small hit as the stock
plummeted down to its old support of $143 before bouncing. A
retest of $143 in the next couple days could provide a good entry
point if the stock could hold support there. We definitely would
not be surprised if AXP gets stuck in a trading range between
$143 and the $155 resistance. Perhaps the best thing we can say
about AXP is that its ticker symbol is only three letters. We
will be exiting this position before the April 24th earnings
release.
Picked on March 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +24.25
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CHINA - China.com Corporation $57.75 -6.50 (-23.25)
With Internet use increasing steadily from 1.57 million users in
1997, to 4.88 million users in 1999, few will argue the growth
potential of the world's most populous country. This potential
has been well recognized by investors, however, recent selling in
the technology sector has had a negative effect on the stock.
Still searching for its bottom, CHINA has continued its slide
this week to lower levels. As a high potential Internet stock,
it's not surprising that CHINA caught the worst of this week's
correction in the NASDAQ. However, at current levels, we believe
that this stock is clearly oversold, and does represent a good
opportunity for near-term appreciation. To signal a reversal,
look for prices to break above initial resistance at $70, with
strong volume (3.0m or better). A good lead-in to this scenario
may begin with a positive news announcement. Given this does
occur, look to $80 for resistance and higher still at the 50-dma
($105.71). Entries can be triggered when prices run through
resistance, combined with notable volume. As for support, current
levels may hold light support, while heavier support should come
at $50. Look to enter off support, when prices give a hard
bounce. The Shareholders Meeting is set for 4/28, at which time
the payable date should be announced. Look to exit in front of
the payable date.
Picked on March 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked -22.06
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EXDS - Exodus Communications $136.94 +14.13 (-3.56)
Devising state of the art technologies to assist Web-based
business with mission-critical Internet solutions, EXDS is
gaining in popularity, as Internet growth remains strong.
This rapid growth has helped to transform EXDS into an amazing
$25 billion market capitalized company. Given the company's
strength in the new economy group, shares have been able to
sustain much of their valuation over the recent market meltdown.
As for today's price action, a low of $92 was followed by a 44.94
point recovery to $136.94. Based on this type of volatility,
today likely marked the height of the decline. Strong volume
(16.2m) was also a good indication that the near-term trend may
shift upward. We're now looking for the price to break back above
its 50-dma ($139.29), as an early confirmation of this shift. If
this scenario does unfold, look for more resistance to be felt at
the buck fifty mark, bolstered by the 30-dma ($151.03), before
trending higher. As for support, the $120 mark should offer our
first level. Beyond this point, the century mark should provide
greater resistance. Target your entries when prices bounce off
support or run through these resistance levels. Design your exits
ahead of the earnings announcement of 4/20.
Picked on March 19th @ $151.25
Change since picked -14.31
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KSS - Kohl's Corporation $99.63 -4.50 (-2.88)
Kohl's has been heating up lately. The stock has made new highs
in the last three sessions as the non-tech stocks take center
stage. On Tuesday, KSS suffered from a round of profit-taking and
general weakness on the NYSE. The stock held at support and
rebounded slightly at the end of the day. There may be additional
consolidation at current levels before it breaks out. We expect
the momentum to pick up as we move closer to the 4/24 payable
date of the 2:1 split. Going forward, support is now down to the
10-dma, at $97, with stronger support at the 15-dma, now at $95.
Place stops under $95 to limit losses. Resistance is $105 and
then $110. Look for a bounce off of $97 or a breakout above $105
to initiate new positions. Start new plays on heavy volume, only
in a rising market with retail sector momentum. Plan to exit by
4/20.
Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +0.06
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $71.56 -12.25 (-25.19)
Metromedia Fiber Network has been under serious pressure this
week. There is no news out on the Company and the stock is being
punished, as there is no reason for investors to rush back into
MFNX, leaving only the sellers to have their way with the stock.
On Tuesday, MFNX was as low as $59 before bouncing back in the
afternoon. Hopefully, you had your stops in and you are out and
looking to get back in. The 2:1 split is payable on 4/17 and this
should provide some positive momentum as we get closer to the
payable date. In the meantime, support has dropped down to $70,
with stronger support at the 100-dma, now at $64. Place stops
under $64 to avoid additional losses. Resistance is currently $83
and then $97. Start new plays on a bounce off of $70 or a
breakout above $83. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market.
Exit no later than 4/14.
Picked on March 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -26.50
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $204.75 -1.00 (-17.00)
In an effort to further expand their business, Nokia announced
another multi-million dollar deal this week, despite a turbulent
market for large-cap technology stocks. Monday's announcement
will team Nokia with VoiceStream Wireless in a multi-year deal
estimated at $500 million. Under the agreement, Nokia will supply
VoiceStream with wireless handsets, while Nokia will be able to
harness wireless application-based protocol from VoiceStream's
mobile Internet services. Commenting on the deal, Jyrki Salo,
Senior Vice President of Nokia Networks North America, stated,
"This new contract underscores our commitment to the evolution
and development of both VoiceStream and the emerging Mobile
Information Society." Positive news has helped maintain NOK
valuations. The stock did manage to shake off a large intra-day
decline and close above its 50-dma ($203.45). Volume off the
intra-day low was strong and provides us with an indication of a
likely rebound. Although our support levels have been retraced,
market momentum was mainly responsible and not NOK in particular.
Future support will likely be found at the 50-dma and further
down at the $196 mark. With bounces off these levels, look for
the stock to find resistance at its previous support levels; $210
and $220. Bounces off support or strong advances through
resistance will provide good entries, when bolstered by good
volume. Exits should be initiated ahead of the payable date of
4/7, per our policy.
Picked on March 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -16.25
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NT - Nortel Networks $117.59 -2.16 (-11.56)
No hiding back home on the Toronto Exchange for this monster
communications equipment stock. If you are in techs, the sellers
found you so far this week. But if you are looking for a place
to put your cash to work, NT would be an excellent choice and we
feel fund managers sitting on a bunch of cash will probably feel
the same way when things settle down. NT has a solid earnings
record, with frequent upside surprises and a huge and stable
business. Stocks that are deficient in these characteristics are
getting killed and may disappear altogether. Meanwhile, the
giants, like NT, will be able to survive. NT was beat up pretty
good today but we like how it bounced off of support, just above
the psychologically important $100 level. We would have been
more impressed (or relieved) if the stock could have made it all
the back into its recent trading range of $120-$130. In fact, a
move above $120 could be bought. NT and Solectron entered an
agreement today, whereby Solectron will acquire several NT
manufacturing facilities and NT will turn around and outsource
its manufacturing to Solectron. It is a perfect example of the
Capitalism theory of efficiency (each member of the economy
contributes to overall growth by specializing in those areas that
it is most efficient at) and it should benefit both companies.
If you are putting money to work in this market right now, you
have to be extremely careful. We could easily roll back over
with some more panic selling in a heartbeat. Double spike
bottoms are not that uncommon. We suggest that in this climate,
you do not let any winners become losers. We will be exiting
this position before the earnings release on April 25th.
Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -19.66
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NXTL - Nextel $135.81 -6.81 (-12.44)
Nextel was slammed on Tuesday, falling over 18 points in the heat
of a market-wide sell-off. The stock recovered late in the day
along with the rest of the market. Clearly, the stock is being
driven by momentum and momentum has been pretty negative lately.
The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26 and the 2:1
stock split is payable on 6/6, so there is still time to get in.
As for the stock, NXTL has support at $130 with stronger support
at $123. Set tight stops under $123 as protection. Resistance is
now $142 and then the 20-dma at $148. Use a bounce off of $130 or
a move above $142 on heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm
market sentiment and sector direction before initiating new
plays. We recommend an exit in front of earnings and a possible
re-entry closer to the payable date.
Picked on March 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -12.81
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TERN - Terayon Communications $197.13 +31.56 (-7.88)
This week's action on Terayon has been dicey to say the least.
Shares of TERN fell hard as the NASDAQ tanked, hitting an intra-
day low of $122.50 on Tuesday. However, as the NASDAQ recovered,
so did TERN, shooting up over 75 points, to close the day with a
$31.56 gain on 2 x ADV. The stock has now filled in all of the
gaps from its mid-February breakout and showed real strength late
in the day. Hopefully, the worst is over. The Company currently
has a 2:1 stock split pending. They have scheduled a Special
Shareholder Meeting on 4/11, when the shareholders will vote on
the proposed increase in authorized shares. The Company should
set the payable date at that time if the share increase is
approved. For now, there is support at $165 with stronger support
at $150. Set stops under $150 to put a cap on potential losses.
Resistance is $200 and then $211. Start new plays on a bounce off
of $165 or move above $200 on heavy volume. Open new positions
only in a rising market with positive sector momentum. We will
set an exit date as soon as the Company sets a payable date.
Picked on March 30th @ $211.75
Change since picked -14.63
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $204.00 -15.06 (-38.87)
Things got a little out of control on Tuesday as shares of
Broadcom fell down to an intra-day low of $152.13 by midday. BRCM
hit its 100-dma and then proceeded to move higher. By the end of
the day, the stock had moved back up above the $200 mark on 5 x
ADV. Judging by the volume and the major intra-day reversal, this
may have been a short-term bottom on BRCM. The Company is
announcing earnings in April and they also have their Annual
Shareholder Meeting on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on
an increase in authorized shares and we are looking for a split
announcement either with earnings or following the Annual
Meeting. In the short-term, the stock has psychological support
at $200. Technical support is the 50-dma at $198 and then $180.
Set stops under $180 to protect yourself. Resistance has come
down to the 5-dma at $219 and then the 10-dma at $227. Initiate
new plays on a bounce off of $200 or a move above $219. Open new
positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit
following the Annual Meeting, unless the earnings announcement
comes before the meeting. If this is the case, plan to exit prior
to the earnings release.
Picked on March 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -8.81
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C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.00 -3.00 (-0.88)
Citigroup was one of the single best performers of the DOW
yesterday as the flight to quality helped the stock to rally to a
new all-time high. We even had a bit of a follow through in the
early going today. But sentiment changed quickly as the
unprecedented comeback rally saw the shares of major tech stocks
as well as value stocks get the bulk of the cash while Financial
stocks, yesterday's favorites, were left wondering were all of
their new friends went. It is our policy to keep a bullish
rating on any play that makes a new high and pulls back to major
support. We will keep an eye on Citigroup to see if the interest
in the Financials increases again. Otherwise, look for the stock
to trade in a range between $58-$63. We do expect the Company to
announce a favorable earnings report and also announce a 3:2
split. If you had followed our recommendation from Sunday's
write-up, you would have been whipsawed with a 5-point loss. On
the news front, Citigroup entered an agreement with Bottomline
Technologies, which will provide Citigroup with an Internet-based
billing service. These kind of partnerships have been looked
upon favorably by the market because they are indicative of how
"Old" economy stocks are benefiting from Internet based
technologies. Early strength in the stock can probably be
bought, but be cautious if the stock drops below $58 again. We
will be exiting this position before the estimated earnings date
of April 18th.
Picked on March 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -2.69
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CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $160.36 +25.48 (-10.71)
We try and cover all of the bases with three updates a week. But
if ever there was a time for an intraday report, today was it,
especially for CHKP. Yesterday's good news was largely ignored as
the stock plunged. Terayon Communications (TERN) announced that
they are teaming up with CHKP to secure residences with broadband
cable modem Internet access which offers a secure and safe
connection. You probably should have been stopped out of CHKP
yesterday as it broke below support of $155. Today, the carnage
continued driving the stock all the way down to $115.94. So why
did CHKP rally back and become one of the single best performers
of the day? Our hunch is that, even though CHKP would be
considered a secondary technology stock, the Company does have a
solid earnings record. The focus of the market now is on the
most predictable stocks and all of the stocks that are
accumulating bounce-back cash have earnings. CHKP is not out of
the woods just yet, despite being extremely oversold on a RSI
basis. If CHKP can rally and close above resistance at $170 and
hold there for a couple of days, we will be more confident that
the stock is on its way back. Be warned though, CHKP is still in
a very strong downtrend, but we are, nevertheless, cautiously
bullish about CHKP, and we believe that it has put in a major
bottom here. Support is $131, but we would not add any new
positions if CHKP starts heading lower. If it really gets
creamed, you can probably buy the stock in the $130's. We will
be exiting this position before the April 12th earnings
announcement.
Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked -9.14
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EMC - EMC Corporation $128.00 +1.00 (+0.62)
With its fundamentals intact, EMC saw little reason to stay in
negative territory and managed to hold off with a 2-point gain
this week. An excited market correction left few technology
stocks unscathed, as over-priced high flyers were forced back to
more reasonable levels. Although this sell-off was generally
broad based, several of the well-established large-cap companies
held their ground with more conviction. As one of these
companies, EMC was able to fire off its daily lows and close in
positive territory on the day. Holding strong to the 50-dma, this
support level provides us with good intra-day buying
opportunities. More support will likely follow at $115, given
further weakness in the market pulls prices lower. However, if
the stock is able to work its way higher, it may find possible
resistance at the 10-dma ($133.85), and still higher at the
stock's 52-week high of $145.44. In order for advances through
resistance to signal potential entries, we're looking for volume
to remain strong (7.0m or better). Good volume will help to
confirm demand when prices run higher. We will plan to exit our
positions in front of the upcoming earnings report of 4/26, per
our normal policy.
Picked on March 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -7.13
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GLW - Corning Incorporated $168.00 -12.94 (-26.00)
Business is going well for Corning, who announced this week that
they will need an additional optical amplifier manufacturing
plant to keep up with demand. As a strong hint for steady demand
of the company's products, a new plant is a classic indication of
a growing business. On Monday, Corning's CEO, Roger Ackerman,
stated, "We are announcing today that Corning has taken another
step in its evolution of becoming the world's leading supplier of
photonic products. The insatiable demand for bandwidth, delivered
at the speed, efficiency and cost possible only through optical
networks, continues to accelerate demand for our products".
Although an additional plant will translate into future revenues
for the company, the stock did give back some of its gains on the
market sell-off. Giving back 28 points from Monday's open, the
stock did manage to rebound well off its low levels of the day.
Strong volume (6.7m) that accompanied this rebound makes a trend
reversal probable. We expect prices to initially find a fair
amount of resistance at the 50-dma ($182.48), before running
higher. A break through the 50-dma will give us good confirmation
that the stock is ready to rebound. If the break does occur,
expect the next level of resistance to be found at the double
century mark ($200). If the stock finds solid resistance at the
50-dma, or at current levels, then expect the $160 mark to hold
firm support. Confirm market momentum and sector trends in the
fiber optic group, prior to opening new positions. As per our
policy, hold positions through the Shareholder's meeting of 4/27,
anticipating a split announcement that may follow.
Picked on March 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -46.38
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $138.13 +5.56 (+5.56)
Looking at the Hewlett-Packard chart this week, one would never
suspect the kind of wild ride that nearly all high-tech stocks
have experienced. The technology laden NASDAQ Composite Index was
down nearly 17% percent on the week until a powerful intra-day
recovery pushed prices up 499 points in the last 4 hours of
trading. Even more amazing than the volatility of the Composite
Index was the resilience of HWP, which managed to gain 5.56
points so far this week. On Monday, HWP announced a new line of
highly successful LaserJet Printers, which was likely responsible
for keeping the shares above water. As previously mentioned,
support along the 50-dma ($130.65) was enough to sustain a market
wide sell off. This level continues to be our initial support,
and would provide us with good intra-day entries, should the
stock continue to bounce off this mark. Possible declines through
this level will likely encounter secondary support at $125.
However, we believe that HWP, who has been strong in a weak
market, will react favorably to advances in a strong market. An
advance should find some resistance at $140, bolstered by a 10
and 20-dma ($139.17 and $140.38). Look for strong volume (4.5m or
better) to push prices to stiffer resistance at $145. Buy
opportunities will occur when the stock advances strongly through
these levels. Plan to exit ahead of earnings, unless a split
announcement comes prior.
Picked on March 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +5.13
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INTC - Intel Corporation $132.75 +2.13 (+0.82)
Sharing in an eruptive day with the NASDAQ Composite, Intel
shares managed to bear up intra-day losses and close with a
strong run into positive territory. With the lack of any negative
news announcements, INTC gained 13.75 points from its daily low
to close up 1.62%. This strong recovery was witnessed by a steady
flow of good volume (43.7m daily), as prices were nearing their
intra-day lows. Adding an extra boost to the rebound, the stock
was carried higher by a sharp turnaround in the NASDAQ. The
rebound was able to carry shares above previous resistance at
$130, reinforced by the 20-dma ($130.04). This will now become
our first support level, with stronger support down at the $124
mark. Hard bounces off these levels, when accompanied by good
volume (35.0m or better) will present good entry points. Look for
first level of resistance to be found at $135, bolstered by a 10-
dma ($135.88). Advances through this level should find secondary
resistance at the $140 mark. Be open to taking profits at these
resistance levels if strong volume can't confirm a break. Our
strategy and policy is to close positions ahead of the earnings
announcement due out 4/18.
Picked on March 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +2.87
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MER - Merrill Lynch $99.25 -7.88 (-5.75)
Not a great performance for a Company whose symbol is a bull.
Yesterday was a pretty good day for MER, but the stock clearly
violated the important $100 support level today. If you had
stopped out there, you would have avoided the pain and suffering
of watching the stock drop all the way to $88.50. The farther
the stock drops below $100, the less likely there will be a
split. A close above $100 would indicate to us that the carnage
is over and all of the stops have been washed out of this stock,
giving it possibly enough momentum to rally back to the highs. It
was kind of surprising that Brokerage stocks did not rally a bit
more considering all of the commissions they inevitably received
today due to record volume. Earnings should be around April
17th. There should be some interest in the stock in anticipation
of a great quarterly announcement and the possibility of a split.
MER established new support at its low today but we would be more
comfortable with a tighter stop halfway to that level at around
$95. We will be exiting this position before the earnings
release.
Picked on March 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -10.69
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QCOM - Qualcomm $146.63 +5.88 (-2.68)
QCOM has handled the incredible NASDAQ selling pressure with a
lot of resiliency. We attribute this to the fact that QCOM is a
leader in its field and is considered to be one of the long-term
survivors after this tech wreck is finished. We sure wish we
could have been able to contact everyone in that 2 minute window
of opportunity when QCOM traded right down to the bottom edge of
its trading range today at $124, which proved to be an excellent
buying opportunity. With today's comeback and several technical
indicators, such as OBV, RSI and MACD remaining bullish, we can
remain cautiously optimistic about this play. A move above
yesterday's high of $152 and we could really get things going
back in the right direction. A move above that price could be a
good buy signal. Despite today's huge spike down, we still see
support at $140. A bounce off of that price could be another
good entry point. Earnings are coming out April 18th and the
stock could stage a nice earnings and split anticipation run as
long as the NASDAQ has truly stabilized in here. We will be
exiting this play no later than just before the earnings release.
Picked on March 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -8.18
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YHOO - Yahoo! Inc. $167.38 +7.25 (-3.99)
Must be Halloween with fear gripping everybody. We wanted an
earnings release run for Yahoo! and we figured the odds were good
as long as the market climate was favorable. You know the rest.
Yahoo! ended the day up nicely and managed to pare its losses for
the week, mainly for two reasons; earnings tomorrow and being a
sector leading stock. Unfortunately, $160 and $150 support
levels were violated. If you were able to watch the market
today, you probably got out in the $150's and hopefully got back
in when the rally began in earnest. If you are still in this
position, look to get out before the market closes tomorrow. If
Yahoo! gaps up and starts to rollover again, especially if it
drops below the $160 support again, you may not wish to wait for
the close before exiting this position.
Picked March 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -24.37
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
GE - General Electric $154.00 -7.00 (-2.13)
General Electric has now spent 3 days in a trading range as the
stock consolidates its latest upward run. On Tuesday, the stock
broke through support at the 10-dma and we feel that there may be
better places to put your money. GE is a great company but the
stock is very close to its high, while other stocks are well off
of their highs and GE may announce earnings as early as Thursday
morning. Therefore, we are dropping this play tonight. We
recommend placing stops under $152 and exiting on strength on
Wednesday.
Picked on March 28th @ $156.00
Profit/Loss = -2.00 (-1%)
Best Profit = +8.88 (+6%)
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $134.62 -3.62 (-12.38)
The head and shoulders pattern that we warned about on Sunday did
forebode a drop in the shares of MOT. Sure enough, it happened
and we have to drop this play. We have some misgivings about
dropping MOT at this time because it should eventually recover
due to its leadership position and strong earnings prospects. And
it trades on the NYSE, not the fun house that is the NASDAQ these
days. But, with $140 support having been violated and the stock
unable to climb above that price during the relief rally, we are
lead to believe that we would be better served for now looking
elsewhere. We will monitor the stock and look for a possible
reentry after the stock consolidates for awhile.
Picked on March 16th @ $151.75
Profit/Loss -17.13 (-11%)
Best profit +17.00 (+11%)
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PWR - Quanta Services $53.88 -9.13 (-6.81)
Quanta Services broke down on Tuesday. The stock had been able to
hold $56 until Tuesday, when it traded down to $53 and could not
rally when the rest of the market recovered. Add a close less
than $1 above the intra-day low and you have a broken trend. Due
to the recent sell-off and the time left on the split run, we
have decided to drop this play tonight to protect ourselves from
early selling related to the split. Set stops under $53 and look
to exit on strength tomorrow.
Picked on March 23rd @ $62.00
Profit/Loss = -8.13 (-13%)
Best Profit = +8.25 (+13%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
BBY - Best Buy Incorporated $77.50 -5.44 (-8.50)
Best Buy's drop from 52-week highs shows us how quickly profits
can be reduced, when negative news is combined with a major sell-
off in the market. Today, Prudential announced that they had
downgraded BBY shares from a strong buy to an accumulate rating.
This announcement sent shares sharply lower, closing down 6.55%.
With today's major decline, which also managed to crush our
support levels, we feel that better opportunities exist
elsewhere. The stock will likely remain a good play for future
runs; we'll keep you posted on these developments.
Picked on Mar 30th @ $83.94
Profit/Loss = -6.44 (-8%)
Best Profit = +4.94 (+6%)
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