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Play Updates
Sunday, April 02, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

APH - Aphenmol Corporation $102.25 (+5.75)

Amphenol Corporation makes connectors, cable and interconnect systems for electronics, cable television, telecommunications, aerospace, transportation and industrial applications. The Company's products include fiber optic interconnect products and systems, chip card acceptor interconnect devices and readers and industrial interconnect products. The stock has spent some time consolidating but it now looks like it is ready to hit new highs. On 3/15, the Company pre-announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings and a 2:1 stock split, payable on or about 4/25, pending mail-in shareholder approval by 4/18. The Company also has the actual earnings announcement on 4/19. Due to the stock split and the earning surprise, we feel that there should be a continuation of the momentum going into the earnings release. Note that this stock did not fall with the other tech stocks during the recent retracement. Why you ask? Fundamentals! An almost forgotten concept as tech stocks go. This is a company with a P/E ratio and a low one at that, positioned in a double-digit growth market! Going forward, APH has psychological support at the century mark with underlying technical support at $97. Resistance is the all time high of $104 and then possibly $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $104 on strong volume to initiate new plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before opening new positions. Play to exit in front of earnings.



Picked on April 2nd @ $102.25
Change since picked +0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

None Today.

SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

AXP - American Express $148.94 (-6.69)

Next week will be critical for AXP in the short term. The stock has rallied nicely for us after being oversold on interest rate fears throughout February. We applaud the Company for increasing investors awareness about AXP's growing e-commerce presence. AXP caters to the small business owner and the Company is making every attempt to give its clients the modern Internet tools they need to stay competitive. Last week there was renewed talk that perhaps the real winners of the New Economy will be companies like AXP that can utilize technologies to streamline their operations and become more efficient, all of which will hopefully be reflected on the bottom line. Financial Services stocks, particularly the Brokers, have been reporting great earnings and we fully expect AXP to report a solid quarter on April 24th. Perhaps we will get a run up into earnings, followed by a rally into the 3:1 split payable date of May 10th. With the MACD, OBV and RSI all turning down it appears that AXP may be rolling over. Many of you may already have been stopped out, if you had been following our trailing stop recommendations. If AXP can rally and close above $150.50 on Monday we may be interested in climbing back aboard. The first week of the new quarter is critical for determining trends. If the stock keeps heading lower early next week we will not fight it and we will go look for winners elsewhere. Either way, we will be exiting this position no later than just before earnings on April 24th.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +26.19



CHINA - China.com Corporation $81.00 (-22.75)

A joint agreement with Jupiter Communications that was announced this week could help CHINA shares to re-gain lost momentum. Under the agreement, Jupiter, who is a leading provider on Internet commerce, will provide Internet expertise with CHINA's geographical niche. Together, each of the companies will initially find businesses in China that want to have a Web presence. Once these companies are discovered, Internet commerce solutions will then be sold to these companies. As for the stock's performance, BBY ended the week at $81, holding above its support level of $80. This level is one of significant consolidation, which occurred throughout the month of January. If prices are able to stage a rebound from current levels, we continue to look at the 50-dma ($106.75) as a significant resistance level. If prices do retrace to this level, then look to close positions if met with solid resistance. Support will likely remain intact at $80, however, if price declines resume, then look to strong support at $65. Watch these support areas for potential entries when quick bounces are followed by good volume. We'll hold our positions through the Shareholders Meeting of 4/28, the payable date for the split should be announced following the meeting.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked +1.19



EXDS - Exodus Communications $140.50 (-32.81)

The need for greater speed and reliability to meet with increasing more complex Internet and network solutions is being met by a top provider of mission-critical Internet operations, Exodus Communications. A good example of a mission-critical Internet solution that EXDS provides is their leading edge in ASP functionality. ASP modules allow Web-based businesses to keep track of registered users and their demographic regions. EXDS was able to generate a strong recovery from its lows on Friday to close at $140.50, above its 50-dma ($139.44). This strong recovery may suggest a turnaround may occur and is the reason why we've chosen to continue to hold the stock. If a recovery does come to fruition, we believe that primary resistance will be felt at the $157 mark, which is where the 10 and 20-dma's converge ($157.81 and $156.58). Higher still, secondary resistance will likely be felt at $175, which is near consolidation at the stocks all-time high. Look for strong price runs through resistance to signal potential plays, when combined with good volume (5.0m or better). Stops should be set in place with a close below the 50- dma. We will plan our exits ahead of the earnings announcement on 4/20.



Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.25
Change since picked -10.75



GE - General Electric $155.63 (-3.44)

GE is a global industrial corporation that makes a wide variety of products, including appliances, lighting products, aircraft engines and plastics. The Company also provides television, cable, Internet, distribution, engineering, financial services and is the owner of NBC Television Network. This stock acts as a proxy for the World economy as it is a multi-national company that makes just about everything. The stock has been consolidating after a new all-time high on Wednesday. Volume was average as GE tests new support levels. The Company announced a 3:1 stock split on 12/17. The payable date will be determined after their next Annual meeting on 4/26 if the shareholders vote to increase the number of authorized shares to accommodate the stock split. The impending split plus an early April earnings release should move the stock to new highs as we move closer to the earnings date. GE currently has support at the 10-dma ($155) with stronger support at $150. Set stops under $150 to avoid additional losses. Resistance is at $160 and then just above the high at $165. Look for a bounce off of $155 or a move above $160 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit before the earnings report, due on or near 4/6 (not confirmed).



Picked on Mar 28th @ $156.00
Changed since picked -0.37



KSS - Kohl's Corporation $102.50 (+5.94)

Friday, Bank of America raised their price target on KSS to $120, reiterated its "strong buy" rating, and raised their EPS estimates. The stock broke out on the news, trading to an all- time high of $104.25 on 2 x ADV. The stock held up well, despite a late-day selloff in the retail sector. Kohls Corporation owns and operates 260 specialty department stores located primarily in 22 states. All of the Company's stores carry similar merchandise, which is targeted to middle income families. Kohl's competes with large department stores by selling major brand name products at lower prices than the department stores. The 2:1 stock split is payable on 4/24 and we are looking for momentum in KSS to continue into the payable date. The value call should also help drive the stock higher as well. Support is now $100 with stronger support at the 5-dma at $98. Place stops under $98 as protection. There is resistance at $105 and then $110. Use a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $105 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising market with retail sector momentum. Exit no later than 4/20.



Picked on March 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +2.94



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network $96.75 (-1.31)

Metromedia Fiber Network operates fiber-optic networks in Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. The Company offers unlimited, un-metered bandwidth at a fixed cost in large metropolitan areas. They are currently expanding into 51 cities in North America and plan to enter 16 European markets. The stock dipped down to its 30-dma at $84.75 and bounced from there. By the end of the day, MFNX was testing $100 resistance. The Company announced a 2:1 split on 3/2 with a payable date of 4/17. As for the stock, there is mild support at the 10-dma, currently at $93, with better support at the 20-dma ($89). Stops should be placed below the 10-dma at $89 for protection. Resistance is the $100 mark and then $104. Initiate new positions a bounce off of $95 or a breakout above $100, accompanied by strong volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. Plan to exit by 4/14, the trading day which precedes the payable date.



Picked on Mar 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -1.31



MOT - Motorola, Inc. $146.00 (-17.56)

Despite a plethora of good news, the shares of Motorola just can not seem to get anything going. First off, was the big announcement that the Company has settled all of its pending patent infringement lawsuits with Qualcomm. The two companies took it one step further and actually extended their cross- licensing agreements for CDMA technologies. On Friday, MOT teamed up with Nokia to attempt to standardize MOT's 1Xtreme wireless transmission technology that is capable of handling voice and high-speed Internet access. MOT is clearly a leader in two very strong groups, Wireless and Semiconductors. It is for that reason that we are keeping this play and giving the stock of MOT a chance to prove itself. It will be very interesting to see where fund managers place their cash in the early going of the second quarter. We believe that MOT will report excellent earnings on April 11th and we fully expect that the stock will be strong going into the report. The question remains, however, how low will the stock go before staging a rally? Technically, there is a downside bias for the shares of MOT which needs to be corrected quickly if we are going to stay in this play. MOT has formed a classic head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder a bit higher than the left, which may help explain why traders sold the stock so heavily. Unfortunately, the stock dropped below the $145 support during last week's selling, which is very bearish and could signify a top if MOT does not rally soon. Do not hold this stock if it breaks below support at $140. A move above $150 and we may have an earnings run on our hands. We will be exiting this position before the April 11th earnings date. If the earnings are solid and MOT has re-entered an uptrend, we may be interested in playing a split run on this stock. MOT will be splitting 3:1 on June 1st pending a shareholder vote approving the increase in the number of authorized shares at the Annual Meeting on May 1st.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked -5.75



NOK - Nokia Corp. $222 (-1.50)

Helped by a booming one-year run-up in the wireless communications sector, Nokia has been a key participant in this rally, as witnessed by its own booming stock. To date the stock has clearly outperformed the market, gaining over 100% from its lows on the year. With demand staying steady, all signs are that the upward trend will likely continue. Analysts are remaining mostly bullish on the wireless sector, and believe demand will stay strong throughout the rest of the year. This has helped sustain the stock's march to new 52-week highs. On Friday, the stock was able to continue its bounce off the 50-dma support level, and close at $222 (in after-market trading). This close was able to penetrate resistance at $220, which will now become support. Secondary support will likely be strong at $210, which is a consolidation area and at the 50-dma ($202.54), given a future price retracement. However, if prices remain strong to the upside, then expect to see resistance at the 52-week high of $233.38. Further up, resistance might also be found at the $240 mark. Use price advances through resistance levels, or strong bounces off support to trigger potential entries. Design an exit strategy in advance of the payable date of 4/7. We will exit by the close on 4/6.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked +1.00



NT - Nortel Networks $126.00 (-15.25)

This Lucent of the Great White North has been flying all year thanks, in part, to their leadership role in the optical networking field. Speed and clarity is what businesses want in their communications and NT delivers on both fronts. The nice move in share price resulted in the inevitable split announcement, which occurred on Jan 25th. The actual payable date for this split is still unknown to us at this time. The Company is waiting for the next shareholder's meeting before setting the payable date. A date for the next shareholder's meeting has not been released. We will keep you posted as these dates become available. In the meantime, NT has been very active on the news wires. NT announced that it has teamed up with Hewlett-Packard to develop products using its Internet networking technology. In an effort to expand its Internet presence, NT launched the Clarify eBusiness Applications Unit, which will provide ISP's with B2B applications and services for building Internet marketplaces. After launching to a new high of just over $144, NT was sucked into the sell off and corrected 25 points during the end-of-quarter window cracking. Having re-tested support at just below $120, it is quite possible that NT took the break it needed before making its next move. NT has staged some nice rallies after pulling half way back from overbought conditions on a RSI basis and it seems poised to do it again. We would like to see the stock trade above Friday's high of $130.68 to confirm that the stock is indeed stair-stepping its way back up to test the old highs. We would pick up the stock here as long as the stock stays above the recent lows of $118. We will be exiting this play before the earnings release scheduled for April 25th.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $137.25
Change since picked -11.25



NXTL - Nextel $148.25 (-5.94)

Nextel provides digital and wireless communications services. Their digital network is one of the largest integrated wireless communications systems in the United States. The Company also owns mobile radio spectrum holdings in all of the top 50 U.S. metropolitan areas. The stock has now spent three days consolidating as the broader market searches for direction. Nextel is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/26 and the stock is splitting 2:1 on 6/6. These upcoming events are keeping the stock alive in a down market and should help move the stock higher in a positive market. For now, there is support at $145 with stronger support at $140. Set stops under $140 to minimize losses. Resistance remains at $155 and then $160. Start new plays on a bounce off of $145 or a move above $150 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings a look for possible re-entry after the post-earnings depression runs its course.



Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -0.38



PWR - Quanta Services $60.69 (-4.31)

Quanta Services offers specialty contracting and maintenance services primarily for electric and telecommunications infrastructure in North America. The Company provides services to electric utilities, telecommunication and cable television operators, governmental entities, general contractors and builders, and owners and managers of commercial and industrial properties. The stock has become hot due to its fiber optic services segment that installs fiber optic transmission lines for broadband Internet Service. Shares of PWR are consolidating after a 100% gain over the last two months. The stock is splitting 3:2 on 4/7, which is just 5 sessions away. We expect the momentum to pick up as we move closer to the payable date. Currently, support is the 10-dma at $60 with stronger support on the 20-dma at $55. Set stops under $55 to limit losses. Resistance remains at $65 and then $70. Look for a bounce off of $60 or a breakout above $65 on strong volume open new positions. Start new plays on strong volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit no later than 4/6.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked -1.31



TERN - Terayon Communications $205.00 (-10.94)

Terayon Communication Systems is a provider of cable modem systems that allow cable operators to provide two-way broadband access services using any kind of cable plant. Their products reduce the time-to-market and eliminate the costs relating to upgrading the entire cable plant. TERN has now spent the last 7 trading days consolidating in a wide range of $200-240. On Friday, the stock was as high as $222.31 before fall back to $205 on heavy volume. This stock was trying to swim upstream in a down market following news of two big contract wins in Korea and China. The Company has announced a 2:1 stock split but they have not set a payable date yet. They have scheduled a Special Shareholder Meeting on 4/11 when the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares. The Company should set the payable date if the share increase is approved. Also on 4/11, but not yet confirmed, is the quarterly earnings report. Consider exiting positions before the close on 4/11 to avoid a post- earnings selloff. In the meantime, TERN has light support at the 10-dma, currently at $204. Stronger support is $200 and then $194. Set stops under $194 as protection. Resistance is $220 and then just above Thursday's intra-day high at $224. Look for a bounce off of $200 or move above $220 to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before opening new positions.



Picked on March 30th @ $211.75
Change since picked -6.75


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

BBY - Best Buy Incorporated $86.00 (+8.06)

Announced Tuesday night of last week, BBY managed to beat its already huge profit expectations by reporting a net increase in profits of 51 percent! The news was welcomed by shareholders, who saw their stock rise 8 points this week to an all-time new high of $86. BBY reported earnings of $.78 a share, $.04 ahead of consensus estimates. The improvements in the company were driven by strong sales and lower than expected costs. In a statement, CEO Richard Schulze said, "Our performance in the fourth quarter exceeded our expectations and capped another breakaway year for Best Buy, solidifying our market leading position". The stock responded favorably to the good news, and worked its way higher with next resistance at $90. If the stock continues a strong run through this level, we believe the century mark should provide for stiff secondary resistance. The 5 and 10-dma's ($82.11 and $79.01) continue to provide good intra-day buying opportunities when followed by hard bounces off these levels. A break through these levels will offer support at the distant 20-dma ($71.94). We will plan to exit our positions in front of the upcoming earnings report of 6/28, per our normal policy.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $83.94
Change since picked +2.06



BRCM - Broadcom $242.88 (+9.88)

Broadcom develops highly integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission over existing communications infrastructure. BRCM's products are used various communications products including set-top boxes, networking equipment and cable modems. After 5 down days, the stock snapped back on heavy volume, soaring over 31 points to close the week with a sizable gain. A possible explanation for the jump is end of quarter window dressing. This stock is a momentum favorite. The Company is expected to announce earnings in April and they have already scheduled their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares. We are hoping for a split announcement either with earnings or following the Annual Meeting. Until then, BRCM has support at $230 with stronger support at the 5-dma ($225). Set stops under $225 to lock in gains. Resistance is now up to $248 and then the all-time high of $253. Use a bounce off of $230 or a move above $248 on heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before starting new plays. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting, unless the earnings announcement comes beforehand. Then we recommend an exit in front of earnings.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +30.06



C - Citigroup, Inc. $59.88 (-0.68)

Trading Citigroup appears to be a wonderful cure for insomnia, as the stock was stuck in a narrow range while the overall market experienced another extremely volatile week. We can not complain though, nothing wrong with a little sideways action in a play, when so many other stocks were causing a lot of pain out there. It may seem odd at first to be putting a $60 stock on our split candidate list. However, the Company did announce a 3:2 split around the April earnings period last year when the stock was trading above $70. Therefore, we may be close enough in price for another 3:2 split. We also like Citigroup because the Company will probably have an outstanding earnings announcement led by its Brokerage arm, Salomon Smith Barney. The earnings announcement is expected by April 18th. Hopefully we will be able to confirm that date sometime this week. The lack of volatility for the shares of Citigroup may be ending soon. The stock has been forming a pennant pattern. When a stock breaks out from this type of pattern the moves tend to be strong. We believe a position could be established at current levels with a stop placed just below support at $58. One could add to their positions if Citigroup can rally above $62.50, which could signal an upside breakout with a nice follow through. We will exit this position before the earnings announcement.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -1.81



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $171.06 (-47.44)

Besides a lack of earnings, the single biggest threat for the e- commerce sector is cyber-terrorism. If this emerging sector is to survive it must gain the confidence of consumers that it is safe to make purchases over the Internet. CHKP is the leading developer and seller of Internet protection software. With the fears of web site attacks realized earlier this year, CHKP's stock has soared. CHKP's stock has split 2:1 twice this year. The first time was intentional and the second time was due to a market correction that saw the shares of CHKP get cut in half. It is hard to call CHKP a "value" play but we are intrigued by the stock's recent ability to rally after a 50% correction and the Company is a recognized leader in a huge growth area, Internet Security. Earnings are due in just over two weeks and we would not be surprised if the Company announces another split. A vote to increase the number of authorized shares would be necessary to effect a split. Further signs that CHKP could be one of the new tech stocks that actually comes back, came in the form of an upgrade from Goldman Sachs. The analyst there raised the rating from Market Outperform to Recommended (whatever happened to Buy, Sell or Hold?). The early week carnage in the NASDAQ resulted in a double bottom being made by the stock of CHKP at $155. With the stock trading higher on Friday than on Thursday, it appears that CHKP is trying to claw its way back into the old trading range of $195-$230. Be careful with this stock. Even though it is oversold on an RSI basis, the proper stop point is still over 16 points away just under $155. Allocate your assets accordingly, this is a very volatile stock, with 20-point intraday moves commonplace. Resistance is first found at Friday's high of $185.50, followed by $195, the bottom of the old trading range. We will be exiting this position before the April 18th earnings release.



Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked +1.56



EMC - EMC Corporation $126.00 (-16.75)

With software storage linked as such an integral part of the computing process, few companies find it feasible delay their storage requirements. With EMC's recent acquisition of Data General, the company has been able add middle-range presence to its existing higher-end storage products. With this combined presence in the storage market, EMC's stock has sustained good momentum. Earlier in the week this momentum had prices pushing into new territory, until a general correction in the NASDAQ composite sent several large-cap technology stocks lower. On Friday, EMC showed good support at the 50-dma ($121.23), when an early price drop found a solid bounce at this level. We believe that the current downtrend may have subsided, witnessed by large volume spikes (7.0m or better) at the current level. Often times an indication of a change in trend occurs when stronger than average volume occurs at either highs, or lows. The 50-dma should continue to be a good level to open new positions, when prices give a hard bounce. Look for initial resistance to be found at $135, bolstered by the 10-dma ($135.06) and higher up at the 52- week high ($145.44). Use price runs through resistance to trigger your buys. Look to exit before the April's earnings report on 4/26.



Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -9.13



GLW - Corning Incorporated $194.00 (-20.38)

Adding to its sizable position in the fiber optics market, Corning announced Friday that it has been selected as the provider for NEEScom's New England optical expansion. NEEScom, which is a subsidiary of the world's largest electricity transmission company, National Grid Group Plc, will use GLW's LEAF optical fibers to deploy a cable network across the rapidly growing New England region. Commenting on the announcement, Corning's Utilities Market Manager, Ed Cook, stated, "NEEScom selected Corning as its fiber supplier after a rigorous review process. We're proud the analysis validated Corning's product performance and the technical assistance we provide our customers". While news has remained positive for GLW, the stock has consolidated this week. Closing up 3.19% on Friday, shares were given a lift off daily lows by firm support along the 50-dma ($181.84). We believe that the strong volume (3.0m) that has accompanied GLW the last 2 days off its 50-dma, suggest that prices may be finding a bottom. Although this support will likely hold in the near-term, if prices do continue to further retrace, then $170 will also offer firm support. With a price advance, we expect the double century mark ($200) to offer primary resistance. Secondary resistance will likely be felt at the 52- week high of $226.44. Target your entries when prices bounce off support or run through these resistance levels. We will hold positions (unless stopped-out) through the Shareholder's meeting of 4/27, in anticipation of a split announcement to follow.



Picked on Mar 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked -20.38



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $132.56 (-9.50)

Fulfilling global demand for its products, Hewlett-Packard's expansion into China is proving to be a success. The company anticipates its personal computer sales in China to improve 30 percent this year. Much of the increase will likely be due to China's recent entry into the World Trade Organization. Commenting on the company's prospects in China, manager of HWP's PC unit in China, Andrew Mak, stated, "We are expected to grow about five percent faster than the overall PC market in China". As for the stock performance, after Friday's 2.19 point gap at the open, prices fell until they found strong support along the 50-dma. Coming off this support level, prices staged a nice recovery to daily highs before hitting resistance along the 30- dma ($137.88). Coinciding with HWP's late-day fall, the entire INDU began to slide, which is probably the reason the stock couldn't hold its gains. If trading can break resistance at the 30-dma, prices will likely find opposition at $141, bolstered by both the 10 and 20-dma's ($140.69 and $141.32). When prices run through resistance, combined with good volume, look to open possible plays. As for support, it should remain strong at the 50-dma ($129.76), and still lower at $125. Hard bounces off these levels will signal our entries. The mid-May earnings report may contain the split announcement. We'll plan on exiting in advance of earnings, unless the announcement comes before.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked -0.44



INTC - Intel Corporation $131.94 (-7.12)

A favorable tax ruling gave Intel shares an early boost on Friday. Under the ruling, INTC will be able to cut $600 million from its first quarter tax provision. Having less taxes that need to be paid, INTC will add an additional 17 cents per share to its first quarter earnings. Consensus estimates show that Intel should earn $.67 cents a share, excluding the tax provision. The news release helped INTC shares gain 3.88% on the day. Progressing off of Thursday's strong rebound from the 30-dma ($122.41), INTC finished the week on a positive note by closing at $131.94. As previously mentioned, our resistance level of $135 was confirmed by Friday's intra-day high of ($134.88). If strong volume can send prices running through this level, then we expect further resistance to be present up at the $140 mark. Support will likely stay intact at the 30-dma, currently at $123.15. Just below this level, look for strong bounces of $120 to signal possible entries. As per our normal policy, we'll plan on exiting prior to the earnings announcement of 4/18.



Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +2.07



MER - Merrill Lynch $105.00 (-8.75)

Excitement in the shares of MER seemed to have waned a bit on the heels of a nice run into new high ground. MER's last rally was due to the outstanding earnings reports that were announced by several of its competitors. Is it Merrill's turn to release some huge numbers? We think so. Record stock market volume in conjunction with huge Investment Banking fees following the most active IPO market in history will likely give MER a record quarter. Using history as a guide, we strongly suspect that MER will also be announcing a split soon. MER's last split was announced in conjunction with its April earnings announcement, just one year ago. At that time, the stock was trading just above $90. With the stock comfortably above that price now, we think it is extremely likely that a split will be announced along with the earnings release on April 17th. We still need to confirm that date. MER has been in a solid uptrend since the start of the year. During this run the stock has pulled back four times to test the 20 DMA and has subsequently rallied to make a new high. The fourth successful test occurred on Friday and we fully expect MER to start turning back up after its pullback last week. We still advise that you keep those stops in there just below psychological support of $100 to protect yourself from any unforeseen negative events. We will be exiting this position before the earnings announcement.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -4.94



QCOM - Qualcomm $149.31 (+3.31)

Is Qualcomm poised for another of its world beating rallies? Could be, and that's why we like this stock here. Everything was looking great early in the week when QCOM broke out of its recent trading range on the news that the Company had finally come to terms with MOT in their 3-year-old patent infringement suit. With their legal fights behind them the two companies can concentrate on their very promising cross-licensing agreements. Unfortunately, QCOM dropped back into its old trading range due to continued end-of-quarter profit taking in the NASDAQ. Friday's comeback bodes well for strong upside moves next week. There were three other positive developments for the Company last week. Lehman Brothers reiterated their Buy rating and saw fit to raise their target price to $180. Salomon Smith Barney jumped on the bandwagon as their analyst raised the rating on the Company to Buy from Outperform. Also in the news, QCOM, along with Sprint PCS and Samsung, successfully tested the third generation of CDMA wireless technology. At this time last year, QCOM announced a 2:1 split when the stock was trading in the $150's. It is certainly possible that the Company will do it again when earnings are released toward the end of April. We really liked the action in QCOM's stock last week and we will forgive it for pulling back with the rest of the market. With the On Balance Volume rising nicely and the MACD recently crossing over and also rising we see money going into the stock and we fully expect the stock to move above last week's high of $162.50 on a NASDAQ rally. We suspect that QCOM could become a favorite position among fund managers throughout the second quarter. Of course, only time will tell. There is risk with this play. We see support at $140 and we would be out of the stock if it trades below that price. The next support level is $120, the bottom of the trading range. You could buy the stock at these levels and perhaps add to your position if the stock does take out $162.50. We will be exiting this position before the earnings release. We hope to get the exact date to you shortly.



Picked on Mar 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked  -5.50



YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $171.38 (-22.62)

Internet stocks took it on the chin last week and Yahoo! was unable to bob and weave its way out of the barrage. The first punch was thrown by Mark Mobius, the famous emerging markets fund manager. It is his contention that Internet stocks are due for a correction of 50%-90% off of their highs. YHOO was further pummeled when three major video game manufacturers filed suit against Yahoo!, alleging that Yahoo! knowingly allows pirated and illegally copied gaming software to be sold on its site. Bad news comes in three's. Also last week, Yahoo! revealed in its annual report that the Federal Trade Commission is looking into some of the Company's consumer information practices. It appears that the negative reaction to this information is misguided. The FTC probe seems to be a routine procedure and Yahoo! contends that they are very good at protecting the privacy of the people who utilize their site. We speculated last week that it seems unlikely that Yahoo! and Ebay will merge. A Wall Street Journal report that aired on CNBC late Friday stated that in all likelihood the merger talks have ended. Early last week it looked like YHOO was breaking out and ready to make a very nice run. The subsequent selling in the NASDAQ coupled with all of the aforementioned news caused the shares of Yahoo! to drop back and establish support at $160. With earnings coming out Wednesday after the close, we think the chances that Yahoo! can run right back to $200, as long as the market climate is favorable, are very good. We will be dropping this play in our Tuesday writeup, so please be ready to exit before the close on Wednesday.



Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -20.37


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

None Today.

SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

EBAY - eBay $176.00 (-67.75)

The news did not go our way on eBay. The Company announced that its Butterfield & Butterfield unit received a subpoena from federal investigators probing the auction industry. The stock fell 31 points on heavy volume. The stock broke major support at the $200 level and could become a war zone going forward. Due to the recent developments, we are dropping this play now because we feel that there are safer places to be, especially in this volatile market. Hopefully, you were stopped out early on Friday. If not, place stops at $175 and plan to exit on any bounce on Monday.



Picked on March 19th @ $218.94

Profit/Loss = -42.94 (-20%)
Best Profit = +36.06 (+16%)



MCRL - Micrel $96.00 (-13.88)

Micrel was holding up until Friday when the stock dipped well below psychological support and has met hard resistance at $105. Shares of MCRL closed at their intra-day low on strong volume and this is not a good sign. Therefore, we have decided to drop the stock tonight. Place tight stops under $95 and plan to exit on strength on Monday.



Picked on March 19th @ $105.94

Profit/Loss = -9.94 (-9%)
Best Profit = +10.19 (+10%)



TXN - Texas Instruments $160.00 (-16.56)

Texas Instruments doesn't play well with other tech stocks, at least that's our report card from Friday. As the techs mounted a great comeback, TXN could not cross above the 30-dma and momentum gave out during late day trading, closing the stock for $3.12 loss. Technically, the stock is sitting in limbo, under resistance with support far below at $150. Since the chart pattern shows a roll-over with no confirmed buy signal, we are exiting the play. Look for opportunities to exit Monday on strength.



Picked on March 28th @ $178.88

Profit/Loss = -18.88 (-11%)
Best Profit = +0.13 (0%)


 


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