NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
CHINA - China.com Corporation $79.81 -0.69 (-23.94)
Targeting the world's largest group of people, China.com is
actively involved in delivering content and commerce in the
Chinese language to pan-Asian audiences, with a content emphasis
on China. Per recent announcements, CHINA may get huge a boost to
its business from the Washington-Beijing agreement announced last
month. Under the agreement, the country of China will be brought
into the World Trade Organization. This is good news for
China.com, who will be able to help businesses in China execute
their e-business strategies. The company plans to accomplish this
by providing strategic advising in Web design and development
integration. Given the huge potential for its services, China.com
has become another high-flying, high-priced Internet type of
stock. Given this Internet appeal, it's no surprise that this
month the BofD announced a 2:1 split. This split is subject to a
Shareholder vote, which will be held on 4/28. Until recently,
shares were advancing steadily into the 52-week high range, but
have since been on the decline, losing over 65 points from this
52-week high ($151.94). This provides us with an excellent
opportunity to play the stock ahead of a likely rebound.
Currently, the shares are sitting on major support at $80. If the
stock can rebound from this level, we expect to make quick
profits as the stock will likely retrace to the 50-dma ($107).
Look for good volume (1.5m or better), to confirm a price
advance. Higher still, more resistance could come in at $126.75,
which would effectively close a major gap that occurred earlier
in the month. Although an advance from currently levels would
seem probable, avoid entering the play if it opens below today's
low of $75.12. If prices continue their descent, then look for
more support at $68. Watch for hard bounces off support to
trigger potential buys.
Picked on Mar 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked 0.00
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KSS - Kohl's Corporation $99.56 +3.69 (+3.00)
Specialty department store operator, Kohls Corporation, owns 260
family-oriented, specialty department stores primarily in 22
states. All of the Company's stores carry similar merchandise;
targeted to middle income families. The stores carry major brands
that are not usually available to discounters. Kohl's competes
with the larger department stores, mainly on price, by selling
these brand-name products at lower prices than the department
stores. The stock has been around for a while but it has just
recently picked up steam. Shares of KSS were trading in the $70-
80 range until late in February. Now that the value call is
running through the market, the retail sector has gained
momentum, taking KSS to new highs. The Board of Directors
announced a 2:1 stock split on 3/6, to be paid on 4/24 in the
form of a stock dividend, and we are expecting the momentum in
KSS to continue into the payable date. As for the stock, support
is the 5-dma at $97 with stronger support at the 10-dma at $94.
There is light resistance at $101 with heavier resistance at
$105. Look to open new positions on a bounce off of $97 or a
breakout above $101 on heavy volume. Confirm retail sector
momentum and market direction before starting new plays. Exit by
4/20, one trading day prior to the payable date.
Picked on Mar 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +0.00
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TERN - Terayon Communications $211.75 +11.75 (-4.19)
Terayon Communication Systems is a provider of cable modem
systems that allow cable operators to deploy two-way broadband
access services using any kind of cable plant. Their products
help reduce the time-to-market and eliminate the cost and task of
upgrading the entire cable plant and infrastructure. Shares of
TERN were $63 just 2 months ago. Since then, the stock announced
great earnings and a 2:1 stock split. The stock hit an all-time
high of $285.25 on 3/9, but then fell down to a relative low of
$150 last week. Now the stock appears to have regained its
footing and we are looking for the upward momentum to continue as
we move closer to the Special Shareholder Meeting on 4/11, when
the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares.
The Company should set a payable date for the split at that time.
Going forward, TERN has support at the 10-dma, currently at $202,
bolstered by the psychologically significant double century mark
($200). Stronger support is $190. Resistance is just above
Thursday's intra-day high at $224. The next resistance level may
be as high as $240. Use a bounce off of $200-$202 or move above
$224 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume in a
rising market. We will set an exit date as soon as the Company
sets the payable date.
Picked on Mar 30th @ $211.75
Change since picked +0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
BBY - Best Buy Incorporated $83.94 +0.94 (+6.00)
With the growing demand and steady stream of highly advanced
consumer electronic products, investors have found another good
way to participate in the electronic insurrection. By buying BBY,
investors have captured a 53% percent return since the beginning
of March. The stellar gains in BBY stock can likely be tied
directly to the Company's strong bottom line results. This year
alone, BBY is expected to grow its revenues by 22%, while
earnings come in at an astounding 49%. This phenomenal growth
stems from the Company's aggressive store expansion. Having
opened 28 new stores in 1999, the Company is currently on target
to open an additional 45 new stores in 2000. This tremendous
level of growth has helped to push prices up near their previous
split-levels. Currently, there are not enough shares authorized
to split the stock 2:1, but the Company's Annual Shareholders
meeting should come sometime in June, allowing for a vote to
increase the authorized shares if the BoD is so inclined.
Additionally, their next earnings are due out in June, further
increasing the likelihood of an announcement at that time, if not
beforehand. As for the stock's performance, prices closed on an
all time high of $83.94 during Thursday's action. During its run
to higher prices, the stock has been showing daily support along
its 5 and 10-dma's ($80.50 and $77.86), respectfully. These
support levels continue to provide good entry points for the
current uptrend. If prices continue to advance, then look to the
$90 mark for the next level of resistance. Beyond this level, the
century mark should also offer stiff resistance. However, if
prices happen to sell-off, then look to find potential plays when
prices bounce off strong price support at $76, bolstered by the
10-dma. We will monitor for news or filings that may clue us into
management's thinking regarding a split or share increase.
Picked on Mar 30th @ $83.94
Change since picked 0.00
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CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $169.50 +12.00 (-43.00)
A very real threat exits that squashes consumer's confidence in
online shopping and that is cyber-terrorism. Some hackers do it
for fun but there are some dangerous ones out there that are
stealing credit card numbers. To help protect themselves, more
and more companies are relying upon the proprietary protection
software packages available from CHKP. Since splitting 2:1 back
in December, CHKP has worked its way back into split territory.
Albeit, the stock is well off of its highs. A vote to increase
the number of authorized shares will be necessary to enact any
more splits in the future. One possibility would be for the
Company to announce a split around its earnings date, which is
April 18th. The month of March has seen the shares of CHKP
nearly cut in half from its high print of $295. We feel that
this security software leader has suffered enough and seems
poised for at least a bounce. We are very encouraged that CHKP
was actually up today and as we all know it was a disastrous day
for most tech stocks. Another important technical development is
the fact that CHKP actually stayed above yesterday's low of $155,
thereby creating a short-term double bottom. CHKP is showing
signs of having formed a classic "wash-out" bottom. If the stock
is truly oversold, then look for a rally back up to resistance at
$195. We are only interested in buying CHKP if it can stay above
yesterday's low of $155. Be very careful. If today was just a
fake out, the stock can drop precipitously. Set a stop just
below $160 to protect against any renewed selling. We will exit
this position no later than just before the April 18th earnings
date.
Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
AXP - American Express $149.00 -2.62 (-6.63)
We remain cautiously bullish about AXP. Financial stocks were
kind of caught in the middle the past two days. With money
flowing out of tech and into value stocks, AXP mostly traded with
the DOW on a small profit taking bias. Support was barely held
at $148 slipping just an eighth below. We said on Tuesday that
we need some sort of catalyst to get this financial services
giant rolling again. In the absence of any positive news, we see
AXP continuing to consolidate its recent run. Traders can still
try and buy bounces off of support. The stock does seem to be
grudgingly rolling over. Be careful buying the stock here
because it could easily fall back into the $140-$147 range. It is
necessary for the stock to take out the $155 resistance point
before we can start getting really bullish again. Keep it on
your watch list and look for positive news items to re-ignite
interest in this play.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +26.25
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EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $144.00 -8.06 (-29.31)
EXDS, a leading provider of complex Internet hosting for large
operations with mission critical Internet operations, decided to
follow the majority of NASDQ issues; 3,129 down and only 1,176
up. Overall, the NASDAQ dropped 4% today. This was enough of a
drag to pull shares of EXDS with it, despite news of their
upcoming 4/6 seminar with Cisco, "Internet Security: Are You
Prepared?" and their partnership with beenz.com (web currency
creator of beenz). Despite the weakness, which saw the stock
break down and trade through the 50-dma at $139, it did manage to
bounce back sharply with the Nasdaq in the last half hour to
trade back through and close above the significant 50-dma. This
is the main reason we are keeping the play for now. The 50-dma
remains our support. A stop should be placed below this level
(actually right under today's low of $136.50) to stave off loses
in the event of another downturn. Resistance is sitting above at
$145 and then $150. Wait to confirm positive sector and market
momentum before opening new positions. Plan on an exit in front
of earnings.
Picked on Mar 17th @ $151.25
Changed since picked -7.25
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GE - General Electric Company $158.75 -4.25 (-0.31)
GE is as diversified as they come, with interests in everything
from TV to finance to nuclear reactors. When you hear the term
"so goes GE, so goes the Dow and the markets", it's because they
are into just about everything, so they act as a good barometer
for the market. Investors aren't always sure how to categorize
the stock. In a market as mixed as the current one, where
investors look to get into or out of specific sectors from one
day to the next, it should come as no surprise that trading in
this conglomerate gets somewhat confusing. Today was a perfect
example of this. The stock was coming off a significant breakout
in Wednesday's action and looked poised to trade higher. This
was not to be. Instead, the stock suffered with much of the
market, trading in a narrow range of just under 4-points. It
opened and hit its high right away before starting a daylong
slide (mid-day test of the high was the only exception) that saw
the stock close just off its low. Volume for the day came in at
8.32M. Despite the negative day, no real damage was done and the
stock did manage to close right at the 5-dma. Going forward, we
are looking for the stock to get back over and close above the
$160 mark to confirm that we still have the necessary momentum.
After that, look for a challenge of Wednesday's intraday high, up
around $165. In terms of support, it looks good between $156-
$157. We would advise a stop be set under the 10-dma back at
$154. Confirm market direction and momentum before initiating new
plays. Plan to exit before the earnings report, which is due on
or near 4/6(we are still trying to confirm the exact date).
Picked on Mar 28th @ $156.00
Changed since picked +2.75
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network, Inc. $90.44 -4.31 (-7.63)
The last 2 days have seen our play in MFNX retrace considerably.
Thursday's action saw the stock open at $90.13, trading in a 10-
point range for the day. The stock traded as high as $97.56 and
as low as $86.94 on volume of 2.74M. For the day, MFNX went the
way of most of the NASDAQ shares - down. The good news is that it
did not close on its low of $86.44, which shows a strong
technical basis in the face of the massive downturn today. The
resistance is the old intraday high of $102.19, although both the
10 and 5-dma's are sitting overhead ($93 and $97 respectively)
and will likely cause some problems on an up move. You've got
strong support at the 20-dma of $89 (nice bounce from there
late), with stronger support at the 50-dma of $80. Set a stop
under the 50-dma for the event of a further meltdown. Plan to
exit before the payable date of 4/17/00.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -7.62
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $144.00 -11.00 (-19.81)
Motorola sure tried to hold up but it lost the battle today. The
good news about the QCOM settlement was not enough to protect the
stock from the end of the quarter tech profit taking. Wireless
and semiconductor stocks were hit hard today and their leadership
status is being reconsidered. We do feel that these sectors will
be the leaders for the rest of the year. In order to confirm
that assessment, we need to see money going back into these
sectors on Monday, the first day of the new quarter. If money
continues to flow into value stocks next week, MOT could end up
under-performing the overall market for awhile. We are at a
critical junction. Warburg Dillon Read attempted to buoy MOT
today by reiterating a buy rating. Even though MOT appears to be
approaching a short term oversold status it has nevertheless
violated three support levels. The first baseline that it broke
below (and we warned you to be cautious about) was $159.38. $145
was also violated, which was the bottom of the previous base that
MOT broke above. By trading below $143 today, MOT went below
another bottom spike support level. Since traders should be out
after the first support level was broken we can now attempt to
take advantage of this possibly oversold condition. Consider
buying the stock here in the low $140's as long as it stays above
today's low of $140. If support develops, look for a run into
the April 11th earnings date, MOT should have a very good
quarter. Remember; bottom fishing is a very dangerous game. Do
not get stuck in this stock if it begins to roll over again. If
you want to be careful, it may be best to wait for next week and
see if MOT can start building some support. If things really get
bad, a spike down to $130 support may be a good place for a quick
bounce trade.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked -7.75
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $205.00 -13.00 (-14.50)
Commenting on the wireless sector, Mark Edelstone, an analyst for
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter stated, "I am optimistic about how
these stocks will trade into the summer. Business is great".
Although this is good news for NOK, the stock has run into some
profit taking the last few days. With the lack of any bad news to
blame, NOK fell in sympathy with many other large technology
companies. Closing down just over 3.5% on the day, NOK finally
saw support on the 50-dma ($201.72. The bounce off this support
was very strong and may indicate an end to this week's sell-off.
If prices do show a bottom, then look for resistance at previous
support levels. Resistance will initially come at the $210 and
further up at $220, bolstered by the 5-dma ($221.58). However, if
prices continue to contract, look for more support along the
double century mark ($200), as reinforced by the 50-dma. Just
below this level, look for more support at $197. Entries may be
presented with hard bounces off support, or price runs through
resistance, when accompanied by good volume. We'll look to exit
in front of the payable date of 4/7, as per our normal policy.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -16.00
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NT - Nortel Networks $124.00 -10.63 (-18.00)
On Thursday, Nortel completed a set of important third generation
wireless calls. The Company used cdma2000 1XRTT technology to
complete the industry's first wireless packet data session. In
addition, they announced that they would increase their ownership
in both Nortel Dasa Network Systems GmbH and Co. (its joint
venture with DaimlerChrysler Aerospace) and Matra Nortel
Communications (its joint venture with Aerospatiale Matra in
France). This would have moved the shares up if this had been a
"normal" trading day. Alas, the NASDAQ drop of 4% took its toll
on shares of NT. The stock dropped after opening at $126.25,
trading between a high of $128 and a low of $119.63, on volume of
10M. Luckily, as with many tech issues, it traded to near its
50-dma before bouncing sharply in the last half hour of trading.
The stock is now sitting over very good support of $120 (built up
between early February and mid-March), encouraging us that we may
now see a move to the upside and break from the current slide.
Resistance now is today's high of $128 (the 20-ddma) and then a
move to refill and close above the gap-down left by today's
action, back up around $134. Place stops under the 50-dma at
$118 to prevent further losses in the event of a continued
collapse. Plan to close out the position before the payable
date, which we will provide once it becomes available. Use
caution before initiating a new position in case today's broad-
market downturn continues for a few more trading sessions.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $137.25
Changed since picked -13.25
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NXTL - Nextel $148.00 -1.06 (-6.19)
Nextel is holding up relatively well considering the recent
action on the NASDAQ. The stock traded down on Wednesday and
Thursday on average volume due to the absence of any kind of
positive news from its sector. On Thursday, shares of NXTL closed
just above its 20-dma which could be a short-term bottom. The
Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26 and the stock is
splitting 2:1 on 6/6. These events should drive the stock when
the momentum returns. Until then, NXTL has support at $145 and
then $140. Set stops under $140 to limit losses. Resistance is
now $155 with heavy resistance at $160. Use a bounce off of $140
or a move above $155, in a rising market, to open new positions.
Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before starting new
plays. We recommend an exit in front of earnings and possible re-
entry after the post-earnings depression wears off.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -0.63
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PWR - Quanta Services $60.00 +1.94 (-5.00)
Quanta Services is hanging tough. The stock was actually up on
Thursday. PWR tested support at the 15-dma but it managed to
bounce back, which is a very good sign of strength in such
negative market conditions. The 3:2 split is payable on 4/7,
which is keeping the stock afloat. We are now just six sessions
away from the split. Support is now the 15-dma at $58 with
stronger support on the 20-dma of $55. Set stops under $55 to
minimize risk. Resistance remains at $65 and then $70. Look for a
bounce off of $55 or a breakout above $65 on strong volume to
start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum
before opening new positions. Exit by 4/6.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked -2.00
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $210.94 -6.00 (-22.06)
Broadcom has fallen victim to the value call. The stock has now
closed lower for 5 straight sessions, leaving shares of BRCM over
$52 off of their highs. Outside of the action in the stock
market, the Company announced a joint development agreement with
Next Level (NXTV). They will work with NXTV on low-cost VDSL Set-
Top technology. Broadcom also said that they had shipped 250,000
VDSL chips and that demand was picking up. The news pushed the
stock up early in the morning but it could not hold onto the
gains as the NASDAQ tanked. Broadcom is announcing earnings in
April and they are also having their Annual Shareholder Meeting
on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in
authorized shares and we are looking for a split announcement
either with earnings or out of the Annual Meeting. For now, BRCM
has minimal support at $207, psychological support at $200 and
additional support at the 50-dma ($192). Set hard stops under
$192 avoid additional losses. Despite two heavy down days in the
Nasdaq, the stock has been able to maintain the $210 level, which
is why we are riding this one out instead of dropping it.
Resistance is now $216 and then $231. Start new plays on a bounce
off of $200 or a move above $216. Open new positions on strong
volume in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual
Meeting, unless the earnings announcement comes beforehand. Then
we recommend an exit in front of earnings.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -1.88
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C - Citigroup, Inc. $61.00 +0.25 (-1.06)
Another boring day for Citigroup as the stock retested and held
support at $58.50. Investors are pretty much ignoring Financial
stocks and are too busy dumping techs and buying value. Since
Citigroup is neither a tech nor a value stock, we will keep
holding this position as long as it does not breakdown. The
chart for Citigroup is looking a little bearish as we have had a
succession of lower intraday highs. Nevertheless, we are
comfortable holding this position all the way down to $56.50
before getting concerned that the stock may be rolling over.
Like we said on Tuesday, there is nothing wrong with waiting for
a break above $62.38 resistance before going long. We still
anticipate an earnings and split announcement run. Earnings are
in the middle of April (date not confirmed) and we feel Citigroup
has a good chance of attracting some of the cash that has been
exiting the techs.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -0.69
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EBAY - eBay $207.13 +8.12 (-36.63)
Shares of eBay showed signs of life on Thursday. On Wednesday,
EBAY closed below psychological support at $200. However, after
two horrible days of trading, the stock moved higher, finishing
Thursday's session with a 9-point gain on average volume. The
Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/25 after the bell
and we are looking for a split announcement with the earnings
release. In fact, they already have enough shares to split so
they could announce a split at any time. In the meantime, light
support is the 20-dma at $203 with strong support at Thursday's
intra-day low of $192. Set stops under $192 to prevent further
losses. Resistance is now the 15-dma at $215 and then the 10-dma
at $220. Open new positions on a bounce off of $203 or a breakout
above $215 on heavy volume. Confirm market direction and sector
momentum before starting new plays. Exit in front of the 4/25
earnings release.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked -11.81
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EMC - EMC Corporation $129.88 -0.88 (-12.50)
The key to winning over companies who require enterprise-storage
management is product performance. Not only does EMC's technology
excel in this area, it also has a sizeable lead over its nearest
competitors. In comparison to one of the leading competitors,
Hitachi, EMC has been able to consistently win a larger share of
the enterprise-storage market. As for the stock, it managed to
stage an incredible 8.13 point comeback from its daily low of
$121.75. The low, which came off the 50-dma of $121.04, was also
accompanied by strong volume. The 50-dma mark has been a
significant level for marking price reversal over the last few
months. On 1/28 and 3/15, the 50-dma proved to be a significant
low from which EMC has able to resume its upward course. Due to
its historical significance, we believe the 50-dma will continue
to provide strong support. Current and future bounces off this
level will provide for possible plays. If a price advance does
follow through, we expect to see light resistance at the 10-dma
($135.34). Above this level we are still targeting a break above
the 52-week high of $145.44, to trigger a possible entry. Design
your exits in front of the mid-April earnings, which could
coincide with the split announcement.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -5.25
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GLW - Corning Incorporated $188.00 -9.50 (-26.38)
The transformation from a slow growing houseware manufacturing
company into a rapidly advancing fiber optics business has been a
remarkable success for Corning. The arrival of Corning's CEO,
Roger Ackerman, in 1996 marked the beginning of this
transformation. Under Ackerman, GLW discarded its weak performing
health care services business, as well as its famous, but slow
growing houseware division. The move into fiber optic
communications has enabled the company to be better recognized by
the investing public and to participate in the advancement of
fiber optic wiring. On Wednesday, the company announced a deal
with Carrier 1, a European provider of voice and Internet related
communications equipment, to deploy Corning's optical fiber in
Europe. Though this is good news for the company, the stock
mostly mirrored a decline in technology stocks. Like many of
today's large cap technology stocks, GLW was able to generate a
strong bounce off its 50-dma ($181.07). Good volume accompanied
the bounce, which sent the stock rising 8 points higher to close
at $188. If today's price action marks a reversal, we expect to
see prices climb back to the double century mark ($200) for
resistance (previously support). If prices can run higher through
this level, then expect to see stiff resistance at the 52-week
high ($226.44). However, if general market conditions tend to
weigh heavily on GLW, then solid support should remain at the 50-
dma and still further down at the $170 level. Look to take
advantage of buying opportunities off support levels, when
combined with good volume. On 4/27, the Shareholder's will meet,
we anticipate a split being announced.
Picked on Mar 24th @ $214.38
Change since picked -26.38
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $130.75 -4.25 (-11.63)
Not only is HWP well known for its top-quality hardware products,
but it also holds a special niche in its printer division. Within
this division HWP has been getting consistently growth from its
consumable printer supplies (I.E. printer paper and ink
cartridges). This segment of the company has provided steady
earnings growth, which in turn has provided investors with solid
gains. As for the stock performance, the last couple of days HWP
has backed off its recent highs and today closed at $130.75, down
3.14% on the day. After breaking below its lower consolidation
range of $138, HWP was able to find support along the 50-dma
($129.43). If weakness in the technology market further plagues
HWP, we expect to see strong support at $125. If strong bounces
off support reverse the downtrend, then we'd expect resistance to
be felt initially at $135. Higher up, more resistance is likely
to be stronger at $140, which is bolstered by both the 10 and 20-
dma's ($141.33 and $141.62). Target your entries when prices
bounce off support or run through these resistance levels. We
expect a split announcement to come on mid-May earnings report,
if not prior.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked -2.25
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INTC - Intel Corporation $127.00 -4.88 (-12.06)
After reporting in Tuesday's write-up that Intel already had the
faster sub-$1000 PC processor, the Celeron 533, INTC has again
chosen to raise its own bar in this market. On Wednesday, the
company announced the release of its 600-megahertz and 566-
megahertz Celeron computer chips, further improving speeds in the
sub-$1000 PC market. General manager of the Desktop Products
Group, Pat Gelsinger, stated, "Several more Celeron processor
family members are due before June, reinforcing our leadership
position in the value PC market segment." In addition to this
positive news, investment bank ING Barings reiterated a 'buy'
rating and set an 18-month price target of $180 on the stock.
Reasons for the buy rating were: strong demand and pricing in all
speed segments, flash memory, and Web-hosting. Announcements like
this have been a real boost to the stock, but this week has been
marked by profit taking. After falling nearly 5 points today,
INTC finally hit its intra-day low at $123.06, before regaining
its $125 support level. Given the strong volume bounce off the
low, we expect near term support to remain firm at $125. Good
support should also be encountered at $120, if prices continue to
slip. Look for hard bounces off support to trigger entries. For
upward advances the stock may find stiff resistance at $135,
which is reinforced by a 5 and 10-dma tandem ($135.29 and
$136.65). Look for heavy volume to accompany a run through
resistance, before adding to positions. Our split may come on the
earnings announcement of 4/18. Plan to exit ahead of the earnings
report.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked -2.88
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MCRL - Micrel $102.31 -7.13 (-7.56)
Micrel was hit with some profit taking in the latest market
correction. With the exception of a few days, MCRL has been stuck
in a trading range for the entire month of March. This is
probably a good thing considering the recent market weakness. The
Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/27, before the
bell, and we are looking for a split announcement to come out
with the earnings release. In the near-term, the stock has
psychological support at $100 and technical support at the 50-dma
($95). Set stops under $95 as protection. There is resistance at
$110 and then $116. Start new plays on a bounce off of $100 or a
breakout above $110. Only play on heavy volume in a rising
market. Plan to exit in front earnings unless they announce a
split beforehand. If this happens, plan to exit in the following
trading session.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked -3.63
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MER - Merrill Lynch $103.69 -3.06 (-10.06)
The drift lower for the shares of MER has been relatively
painless when you consider the alternatives. MER did break below
$105 support but the stock is still comfortably ahead of the $100
level. It does not look like too many people want to exit this
stock when it appears very likely that the Company will announce
a blowout quarter and a split sometime in mid-April. There was a
news item of some consequence, but largely ignored by the market
today. MER along with several other major brokerages, announced
that they would come together to provide prices on new bond
issues over the Internet, as part of the recently created online
securities venture known as Syndicate.Hub. We remain comfortable
buying shares of MER as long as it stays above $100. A drop
below that price could be troublesome and we certainly want to be
out of the way if the stock started trading in double digits
again. A couple of days of trading above the previous day's
highs would give us more confidence that the selling of MER is
over.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -6.25
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QCOM - Qualcomm $145.23 -12.27 (-0.78)
Understandably, QCOM could not sustain the wonderful breakout the
stock enjoyed earlier in the week. There has been plenty of good
news for this communications giant. Despite that fact though,
QCOM could not defend itself against the waves of selling that
have punished many of the NASDAQ's technology leaders. The
settlement of their patent infringement lawsuits with Motorola
earlier in the week, prompted Lehman Brothers to reiterate their
Buy recommendation and raise their target price to $180 from
$160. Proof of the Company's continued leadership in the wireless
communications field came today when QCOM, along with Sprint PCS
and Samsung, successfully tested the first voice call using third
generation CDMA technology. Unfortunately, good news has been
largely ignored the past few days. We fully expect QCOM to
emerge as one of the favorite stocks when a NASDAQ rally begins.
The question is when will the selling stop? Be careful of a gap
up open tomorrow followed by a rollover. If tomorrow the stock
can stay positive for the first half of trading, some confidence
may creep in. The old trading range was $120-$150. QCOM has
slipped back into that range so it is not impossible for the
stock to fall all the way back to $120 if the NASDAQ continues to
correct. A close above $150 and we may be seeing the light at
the end of the tunnel and QCOM could stage a pre-earnings run.
Earnings are anticipated during the last week of April and we
will be exiting this position before then.
Picked on Mar 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked -9.58
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TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated $163.13 -7.69 (-13.31)
There was a lot of good news for TXN today. Sony selected TXN's
low power, programmable digital signal processor (DSP) for its
VAIO Music Clip Internet Audio Player. TXN was also ranked No.1
for the 3rd year in a row by GartnerGroup's Dataquest as the
leader in the power management and interface sector. Despite
these things, the stock couldn't withstand the broad-based
downturn in tech stocks today. The stock started out okay,
opening at $170.81 and trading to its high of $171 in the first
half-hour. From there, things went downhill, as the stock traded
with the rest of the techs, giving up ground steadily throughout
the afternoon. As with most of the techs, it hit its low in the
afternoon selloff before bouncing sharply with the market. This
down move to $155 brought the stock to within 5 points of its 50-
dma and psychological support at $150. All of this took place on
volume of 6.31M. Going forward from here, there is some support
at $160 and then today's low at $155. Set a stop under the 50-
dma ($150) to prevent further loses in the event of another
downturn. If the late recovery follows through, expect
resistance at $165 and then $170. Confirmation of a true
reversal to the upside will be made if and when the stock crosses
back above significant moving averages (5, 10 and 20-dma's all
sitting above between $172-$174). Use caution initiation a new
position until you confirm positive momentum and direction for
the broader market and semi-sector. Plan to exit the position
prior to earnings later in April.
Picked on Mar 28th @ $178.88
Changed since picked -15.76
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YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $169.50 -7.56 (-24.50)
There sure is a lot of pressure on Internet stocks right now.
Yesterday, Mark Mobius opened his big mouth and suggested that
many Internet stocks are overvalued and are due for further
corrections of between 50%-90% of their highs. 50% of Yahoo!'s
high puts the stock at $125. That fear factor has put some
pressure on the stock the past two days. There is some debate as
to whether we are still in the midst of the third 10% NASDAQ
correction or the fourth. Actually, this is probably a
continuation of the third correction. However, the NASDAQ 100
(NDX) did manage to make a new high, so we contend that the NDX
is in the midst of its fourth 10% correction, which has proven to
be a good buying opportunity. Yahoo! is a huge component of the
NDX and we look for it to bounce nicely if the NDX does. Yahoo!
is announcing earnings after the close on Wednesday and we expect
an anticipatory rally before we exit this position no later than
just before the announcement. YHOO was under pressure yesterday,
after three major video game producers accused Yahoo! of giving
people access to counterfeit games and game devices via its
online shopping area. Today the bad news continued, as it was
announced that the FTC is investigating illegal consumer privacy
laws that may have been violated on the Yahoo website. Hopefully
you stepped to the sidelines after Yahoo! sliced through the $185
support. Nothing wrong with taking a loss, it's good practice.
Yahoo! has fallen right back into its old trading range. $150 is
great support and a good place to pick up the stock if we were to
get that lucky. Otherwise be very careful about buying the stock
here, especially on a gap-up open. Although it appears that the
end of the quarter profit taking could be over, you do not want
to be long Yahoo! if it trades below today's low of $160.25.
Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -22.25
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
ALKS - Alkermes $89.19 -3.25 (-14.13)
Catching a falling knife sure can be painful. We hope you paid
heed to our warning of avoiding this stock if it took out the
previous day's low. Although the open was higher than the
previous day's low, the stock quickly dropped below it, resulting
in a three-point loss. At the worst, we hope you were out of the
stock when it crashed through the very important $100 level.
Picked on March 28th @ $108.50
Profit/Loss = -19.31 (-18%)
Best Profit = +0.13 (0%)
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CMRC - Commerce One $173.31 -9.69 (-50.38)
The Business to Business (B2B) sector has taken the recent
decline in the NASDAQ particularly hard. CMRC, which has been no
exception to this drop, has seen shares drop over 50 points this
week alone! Our stop of $196.75 protected us from much of this
decline, while also giving the stock every opportunity to
rebound. Though we believe the B2B sector will continue to
generate good momentum runs, for now we'll wait for selling
pressure to subside. We'll keep you up to date on further
potential play as they present themselves.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52
Profit/Loss = -49.21 (-22%)
Best Profit = +3.98 (+2%)
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ERICY - LM Ericsson $85.50 -4.62 (-17.31)
We have been faked out again as $100 continues to be an
insurmountable obstacle for ERICY. In fact, the stock has been
whacked harder than most and we have to drop this play because it
is dropping below support levels. What is really amazing, is
that ERICY had a monster news item when the Company landed a $630
million contract to develop a new cell phone network in China.
Unfortunately nobody was listening. They were too busy selling.
ERICY found some old support down in the low $80's. We are
hoping for a gap up bounce opening to help ease the pain while
exiting this position. If the stock breaks below today's low it
looks like the stock could drop straight to $70.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $102.81
Profit/Loss = -17.31 (17%)
Best Profit = -1.43 (-1%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
GS - Goldman Sachs Group $106.88 -7.31 (-14.44)
The announcement of newly formed Syndicate.Hub couldn't help GS
today. Six leading Wall Street securities firms, GS, J.P.
Morgan, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter and Salomon Smith Barney formed the new Internet portal to
provide institutional investors with information about new fixed
income securities (i.e. bonds). The investors and dealers will be
electronically linked so they can get real-time info on the new
issues. GS had a decent opening today at $112.31, hit a high of
$115, but closed near the low of the day. GS broke through its
major support, the 20-dma at $108.81. Time to close out this
play. Look to exit Friday on strength.
Picked on Mar 26th @$121.31
Profit/Loss -14.43 (-12%)
Best Profit -1.93 (-2%)
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SNDK - SanDisk $108.06 -9.88 (-24.50)
SanDisk broke down on Thursday. The stock traded below its
support levels and closed on its intra-day low. Due to the recent
weakness in the broader market and the weak close on SNDK, we are
dropping this stock now and moving on. Hopefully, you had your
stops in and got out on Wednesday. If not, set tight stops at
$106 and look to exit on strength on Friday.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00
Profit/Loss = -21.94 (-17%)
Best Profit = +16.00 (+12%)
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XLNX - Xilinx Incorporated $76.88 -3.56 (-5.75)
Our Xilinx play, although short lived, has shown us some
underlying weakness that we feel is significant enough to drop
this play early. Yesterday's 4.44 point decline came on heavier
than expected volume (6.3m), and preceded a gap down at today's
open. Our XLNX play, which originally closed above its 52-week
high, was primarily intended to continue the breakout to higher
prices. The strategy for our initial entry was a close above
$88.44. This allowed us to avoid losing money on a price decline,
while at the same time giving the stock every opportunity to
advance. We'll keep you posted on future developments on this
stock.
Picked on Mar 28th @ $84.88
Profit/Loss = -8.00 (-9%)
Best Profit = +1.38 (+2%)
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