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Play Updates
Thursday, March 30, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

CHINA - China.com Corporation $79.81 -0.69 (-23.94)

Targeting the world's largest group of people, China.com is actively involved in delivering content and commerce in the Chinese language to pan-Asian audiences, with a content emphasis on China. Per recent announcements, CHINA may get huge a boost to its business from the Washington-Beijing agreement announced last month. Under the agreement, the country of China will be brought into the World Trade Organization. This is good news for China.com, who will be able to help businesses in China execute their e-business strategies. The company plans to accomplish this by providing strategic advising in Web design and development integration. Given the huge potential for its services, China.com has become another high-flying, high-priced Internet type of stock. Given this Internet appeal, it's no surprise that this month the BofD announced a 2:1 split. This split is subject to a Shareholder vote, which will be held on 4/28. Until recently, shares were advancing steadily into the 52-week high range, but have since been on the decline, losing over 65 points from this 52-week high ($151.94). This provides us with an excellent opportunity to play the stock ahead of a likely rebound. Currently, the shares are sitting on major support at $80. If the stock can rebound from this level, we expect to make quick profits as the stock will likely retrace to the 50-dma ($107). Look for good volume (1.5m or better), to confirm a price advance. Higher still, more resistance could come in at $126.75, which would effectively close a major gap that occurred earlier in the month. Although an advance from currently levels would seem probable, avoid entering the play if it opens below today's low of $75.12. If prices continue their descent, then look for more support at $68. Watch for hard bounces off support to trigger potential buys.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $79.81
Change since picked 0.00



KSS - Kohl's Corporation $99.56 +3.69 (+3.00)

Specialty department store operator, Kohls Corporation, owns 260 family-oriented, specialty department stores primarily in 22 states. All of the Company's stores carry similar merchandise; targeted to middle income families. The stores carry major brands that are not usually available to discounters. Kohl's competes with the larger department stores, mainly on price, by selling these brand-name products at lower prices than the department stores. The stock has been around for a while but it has just recently picked up steam. Shares of KSS were trading in the $70- 80 range until late in February. Now that the value call is running through the market, the retail sector has gained momentum, taking KSS to new highs. The Board of Directors announced a 2:1 stock split on 3/6, to be paid on 4/24 in the form of a stock dividend, and we are expecting the momentum in KSS to continue into the payable date. As for the stock, support is the 5-dma at $97 with stronger support at the 10-dma at $94. There is light resistance at $101 with heavier resistance at $105. Look to open new positions on a bounce off of $97 or a breakout above $101 on heavy volume. Confirm retail sector momentum and market direction before starting new plays. Exit by 4/20, one trading day prior to the payable date.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $99.56
Change since picked +0.00



TERN - Terayon Communications $211.75 +11.75 (-4.19)

Terayon Communication Systems is a provider of cable modem systems that allow cable operators to deploy two-way broadband access services using any kind of cable plant. Their products help reduce the time-to-market and eliminate the cost and task of upgrading the entire cable plant and infrastructure. Shares of TERN were $63 just 2 months ago. Since then, the stock announced great earnings and a 2:1 stock split. The stock hit an all-time high of $285.25 on 3/9, but then fell down to a relative low of $150 last week. Now the stock appears to have regained its footing and we are looking for the upward momentum to continue as we move closer to the Special Shareholder Meeting on 4/11, when the shareholders will vote on an increase in authorized shares. The Company should set a payable date for the split at that time. Going forward, TERN has support at the 10-dma, currently at $202, bolstered by the psychologically significant double century mark ($200). Stronger support is $190. Resistance is just above Thursday's intra-day high at $224. The next resistance level may be as high as $240. Use a bounce off of $200-$202 or move above $224 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume in a rising market. We will set an exit date as soon as the Company sets the payable date.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $211.75
Change since picked +0.00



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

BBY - Best Buy Incorporated $83.94 +0.94 (+6.00)

With the growing demand and steady stream of highly advanced consumer electronic products, investors have found another good way to participate in the electronic insurrection. By buying BBY, investors have captured a 53% percent return since the beginning of March. The stellar gains in BBY stock can likely be tied directly to the Company's strong bottom line results. This year alone, BBY is expected to grow its revenues by 22%, while earnings come in at an astounding 49%. This phenomenal growth stems from the Company's aggressive store expansion. Having opened 28 new stores in 1999, the Company is currently on target to open an additional 45 new stores in 2000. This tremendous level of growth has helped to push prices up near their previous split-levels. Currently, there are not enough shares authorized to split the stock 2:1, but the Company's Annual Shareholders meeting should come sometime in June, allowing for a vote to increase the authorized shares if the BoD is so inclined. Additionally, their next earnings are due out in June, further increasing the likelihood of an announcement at that time, if not beforehand. As for the stock's performance, prices closed on an all time high of $83.94 during Thursday's action. During its run to higher prices, the stock has been showing daily support along its 5 and 10-dma's ($80.50 and $77.86), respectfully. These support levels continue to provide good entry points for the current uptrend. If prices continue to advance, then look to the $90 mark for the next level of resistance. Beyond this level, the century mark should also offer stiff resistance. However, if prices happen to sell-off, then look to find potential plays when prices bounce off strong price support at $76, bolstered by the 10-dma. We will monitor for news or filings that may clue us into management's thinking regarding a split or share increase.



Picked on Mar 30th @ $83.94
Change since picked 0.00



CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies $169.50 +12.00 (-43.00)

A very real threat exits that squashes consumer's confidence in online shopping and that is cyber-terrorism. Some hackers do it for fun but there are some dangerous ones out there that are stealing credit card numbers. To help protect themselves, more and more companies are relying upon the proprietary protection software packages available from CHKP. Since splitting 2:1 back in December, CHKP has worked its way back into split territory. Albeit, the stock is well off of its highs. A vote to increase the number of authorized shares will be necessary to enact any more splits in the future. One possibility would be for the Company to announce a split around its earnings date, which is April 18th. The month of March has seen the shares of CHKP nearly cut in half from its high print of $295. We feel that this security software leader has suffered enough and seems poised for at least a bounce. We are very encouraged that CHKP was actually up today and as we all know it was a disastrous day for most tech stocks. Another important technical development is the fact that CHKP actually stayed above yesterday's low of $155, thereby creating a short-term double bottom. CHKP is showing signs of having formed a classic "wash-out" bottom. If the stock is truly oversold, then look for a rally back up to resistance at $195. We are only interested in buying CHKP if it can stay above yesterday's low of $155. Be very careful. If today was just a fake out, the stock can drop precipitously. Set a stop just below $160 to protect against any renewed selling. We will exit this position no later than just before the April 18th earnings date.



Picked on March 30th @ $169.50
Change since picked 0.00



SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

AXP - American Express $149.00 -2.62 (-6.63)

We remain cautiously bullish about AXP. Financial stocks were kind of caught in the middle the past two days. With money flowing out of tech and into value stocks, AXP mostly traded with the DOW on a small profit taking bias. Support was barely held at $148 slipping just an eighth below. We said on Tuesday that we need some sort of catalyst to get this financial services giant rolling again. In the absence of any positive news, we see AXP continuing to consolidate its recent run. Traders can still try and buy bounces off of support. The stock does seem to be grudgingly rolling over. Be careful buying the stock here because it could easily fall back into the $140-$147 range. It is necessary for the stock to take out the $155 resistance point before we can start getting really bullish again. Keep it on your watch list and look for positive news items to re-ignite interest in this play.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +26.25



EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $144.00 -8.06 (-29.31)

EXDS, a leading provider of complex Internet hosting for large operations with mission critical Internet operations, decided to follow the majority of NASDQ issues; 3,129 down and only 1,176 up. Overall, the NASDAQ dropped 4% today. This was enough of a drag to pull shares of EXDS with it, despite news of their upcoming 4/6 seminar with Cisco, "Internet Security: Are You Prepared?" and their partnership with beenz.com (web currency creator of beenz). Despite the weakness, which saw the stock break down and trade through the 50-dma at $139, it did manage to bounce back sharply with the Nasdaq in the last half hour to trade back through and close above the significant 50-dma. This is the main reason we are keeping the play for now. The 50-dma remains our support. A stop should be placed below this level (actually right under today's low of $136.50) to stave off loses in the event of another downturn. Resistance is sitting above at $145 and then $150. Wait to confirm positive sector and market momentum before opening new positions. Plan on an exit in front of earnings.



Picked on Mar 17th @ $151.25
Changed since picked -7.25



GE - General Electric Company $158.75 -4.25 (-0.31)

GE is as diversified as they come, with interests in everything from TV to finance to nuclear reactors. When you hear the term "so goes GE, so goes the Dow and the markets", it's because they are into just about everything, so they act as a good barometer for the market. Investors aren't always sure how to categorize the stock. In a market as mixed as the current one, where investors look to get into or out of specific sectors from one day to the next, it should come as no surprise that trading in this conglomerate gets somewhat confusing. Today was a perfect example of this. The stock was coming off a significant breakout in Wednesday's action and looked poised to trade higher. This was not to be. Instead, the stock suffered with much of the market, trading in a narrow range of just under 4-points. It opened and hit its high right away before starting a daylong slide (mid-day test of the high was the only exception) that saw the stock close just off its low. Volume for the day came in at 8.32M. Despite the negative day, no real damage was done and the stock did manage to close right at the 5-dma. Going forward, we are looking for the stock to get back over and close above the $160 mark to confirm that we still have the necessary momentum. After that, look for a challenge of Wednesday's intraday high, up around $165. In terms of support, it looks good between $156- $157. We would advise a stop be set under the 10-dma back at $154. Confirm market direction and momentum before initiating new plays. Plan to exit before the earnings report, which is due on or near 4/6(we are still trying to confirm the exact date).



Picked on Mar 28th @ $156.00
Changed since picked +2.75



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network, Inc. $90.44 -4.31 (-7.63)

The last 2 days have seen our play in MFNX retrace considerably. Thursday's action saw the stock open at $90.13, trading in a 10- point range for the day. The stock traded as high as $97.56 and as low as $86.94 on volume of 2.74M. For the day, MFNX went the way of most of the NASDAQ shares - down. The good news is that it did not close on its low of $86.44, which shows a strong technical basis in the face of the massive downturn today. The resistance is the old intraday high of $102.19, although both the 10 and 5-dma's are sitting overhead ($93 and $97 respectively) and will likely cause some problems on an up move. You've got strong support at the 20-dma of $89 (nice bounce from there late), with stronger support at the 50-dma of $80. Set a stop under the 50-dma for the event of a further meltdown. Plan to exit before the payable date of 4/17/00.



Picked on Mar 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked -7.62



MOT - Motorola, Inc. $144.00 -11.00 (-19.81)

Motorola sure tried to hold up but it lost the battle today. The good news about the QCOM settlement was not enough to protect the stock from the end of the quarter tech profit taking. Wireless and semiconductor stocks were hit hard today and their leadership status is being reconsidered. We do feel that these sectors will be the leaders for the rest of the year. In order to confirm that assessment, we need to see money going back into these sectors on Monday, the first day of the new quarter. If money continues to flow into value stocks next week, MOT could end up under-performing the overall market for awhile. We are at a critical junction. Warburg Dillon Read attempted to buoy MOT today by reiterating a buy rating. Even though MOT appears to be approaching a short term oversold status it has nevertheless violated three support levels. The first baseline that it broke below (and we warned you to be cautious about) was $159.38. $145 was also violated, which was the bottom of the previous base that MOT broke above. By trading below $143 today, MOT went below another bottom spike support level. Since traders should be out after the first support level was broken we can now attempt to take advantage of this possibly oversold condition. Consider buying the stock here in the low $140's as long as it stays above today's low of $140. If support develops, look for a run into the April 11th earnings date, MOT should have a very good quarter. Remember; bottom fishing is a very dangerous game. Do not get stuck in this stock if it begins to roll over again. If you want to be careful, it may be best to wait for next week and see if MOT can start building some support. If things really get bad, a spike down to $130 support may be a good place for a quick bounce trade.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked -7.75



NOK - Nokia Corp. $205.00 -13.00 (-14.50)

Commenting on the wireless sector, Mark Edelstone, an analyst for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter stated, "I am optimistic about how these stocks will trade into the summer. Business is great". Although this is good news for NOK, the stock has run into some profit taking the last few days. With the lack of any bad news to blame, NOK fell in sympathy with many other large technology companies. Closing down just over 3.5% on the day, NOK finally saw support on the 50-dma ($201.72. The bounce off this support was very strong and may indicate an end to this week's sell-off. If prices do show a bottom, then look for resistance at previous support levels. Resistance will initially come at the $210 and further up at $220, bolstered by the 5-dma ($221.58). However, if prices continue to contract, look for more support along the double century mark ($200), as reinforced by the 50-dma. Just below this level, look for more support at $197. Entries may be presented with hard bounces off support, or price runs through resistance, when accompanied by good volume. We'll look to exit in front of the payable date of 4/7, as per our normal policy.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -16.00



NT - Nortel Networks $124.00 -10.63 (-18.00)

On Thursday, Nortel completed a set of important third generation wireless calls. The Company used cdma2000 1XRTT technology to complete the industry's first wireless packet data session. In addition, they announced that they would increase their ownership in both Nortel Dasa Network Systems GmbH and Co. (its joint venture with DaimlerChrysler Aerospace) and Matra Nortel Communications (its joint venture with Aerospatiale Matra in France). This would have moved the shares up if this had been a "normal" trading day. Alas, the NASDAQ drop of 4% took its toll on shares of NT. The stock dropped after opening at $126.25, trading between a high of $128 and a low of $119.63, on volume of 10M. Luckily, as with many tech issues, it traded to near its 50-dma before bouncing sharply in the last half hour of trading. The stock is now sitting over very good support of $120 (built up between early February and mid-March), encouraging us that we may now see a move to the upside and break from the current slide. Resistance now is today's high of $128 (the 20-ddma) and then a move to refill and close above the gap-down left by today's action, back up around $134. Place stops under the 50-dma at $118 to prevent further losses in the event of a continued collapse. Plan to close out the position before the payable date, which we will provide once it becomes available. Use caution before initiating a new position in case today's broad- market downturn continues for a few more trading sessions.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $137.25
Changed since picked -13.25



NXTL - Nextel $148.00 -1.06 (-6.19)

Nextel is holding up relatively well considering the recent action on the NASDAQ. The stock traded down on Wednesday and Thursday on average volume due to the absence of any kind of positive news from its sector. On Thursday, shares of NXTL closed just above its 20-dma which could be a short-term bottom. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26 and the stock is splitting 2:1 on 6/6. These events should drive the stock when the momentum returns. Until then, NXTL has support at $145 and then $140. Set stops under $140 to limit losses. Resistance is now $155 with heavy resistance at $160. Use a bounce off of $140 or a move above $155, in a rising market, to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before starting new plays. We recommend an exit in front of earnings and possible re- entry after the post-earnings depression wears off.



Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked -0.63



PWR - Quanta Services $60.00 +1.94 (-5.00)

Quanta Services is hanging tough. The stock was actually up on Thursday. PWR tested support at the 15-dma but it managed to bounce back, which is a very good sign of strength in such negative market conditions. The 3:2 split is payable on 4/7, which is keeping the stock afloat. We are now just six sessions away from the split. Support is now the 15-dma at $58 with stronger support on the 20-dma of $55. Set stops under $55 to minimize risk. Resistance remains at $65 and then $70. Look for a bounce off of $55 or a breakout above $65 on strong volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Exit by 4/6.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked -2.00



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

BRCM - Broadcom $210.94 -6.00 (-22.06)

Broadcom has fallen victim to the value call. The stock has now closed lower for 5 straight sessions, leaving shares of BRCM over $52 off of their highs. Outside of the action in the stock market, the Company announced a joint development agreement with Next Level (NXTV). They will work with NXTV on low-cost VDSL Set- Top technology. Broadcom also said that they had shipped 250,000 VDSL chips and that demand was picking up. The news pushed the stock up early in the morning but it could not hold onto the gains as the NASDAQ tanked. Broadcom is announcing earnings in April and they are also having their Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares and we are looking for a split announcement either with earnings or out of the Annual Meeting. For now, BRCM has minimal support at $207, psychological support at $200 and additional support at the 50-dma ($192). Set hard stops under $192 avoid additional losses. Despite two heavy down days in the Nasdaq, the stock has been able to maintain the $210 level, which is why we are riding this one out instead of dropping it. Resistance is now $216 and then $231. Start new plays on a bounce off of $200 or a move above $216. Open new positions on strong volume in a rising market. Plan to exit following the Annual Meeting, unless the earnings announcement comes beforehand. Then we recommend an exit in front of earnings.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked -1.88



C - Citigroup, Inc. $61.00 +0.25 (-1.06)

Another boring day for Citigroup as the stock retested and held support at $58.50. Investors are pretty much ignoring Financial stocks and are too busy dumping techs and buying value. Since Citigroup is neither a tech nor a value stock, we will keep holding this position as long as it does not breakdown. The chart for Citigroup is looking a little bearish as we have had a succession of lower intraday highs. Nevertheless, we are comfortable holding this position all the way down to $56.50 before getting concerned that the stock may be rolling over. Like we said on Tuesday, there is nothing wrong with waiting for a break above $62.38 resistance before going long. We still anticipate an earnings and split announcement run. Earnings are in the middle of April (date not confirmed) and we feel Citigroup has a good chance of attracting some of the cash that has been exiting the techs.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -0.69



EBAY - eBay $207.13 +8.12 (-36.63)

Shares of eBay showed signs of life on Thursday. On Wednesday, EBAY closed below psychological support at $200. However, after two horrible days of trading, the stock moved higher, finishing Thursday's session with a 9-point gain on average volume. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/25 after the bell and we are looking for a split announcement with the earnings release. In fact, they already have enough shares to split so they could announce a split at any time. In the meantime, light support is the 20-dma at $203 with strong support at Thursday's intra-day low of $192. Set stops under $192 to prevent further losses. Resistance is now the 15-dma at $215 and then the 10-dma at $220. Open new positions on a bounce off of $203 or a breakout above $215 on heavy volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. Exit in front of the 4/25 earnings release.



Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked -11.81



EMC - EMC Corporation $129.88 -0.88 (-12.50)

The key to winning over companies who require enterprise-storage management is product performance. Not only does EMC's technology excel in this area, it also has a sizeable lead over its nearest competitors. In comparison to one of the leading competitors, Hitachi, EMC has been able to consistently win a larger share of the enterprise-storage market. As for the stock, it managed to stage an incredible 8.13 point comeback from its daily low of $121.75. The low, which came off the 50-dma of $121.04, was also accompanied by strong volume. The 50-dma mark has been a significant level for marking price reversal over the last few months. On 1/28 and 3/15, the 50-dma proved to be a significant low from which EMC has able to resume its upward course. Due to its historical significance, we believe the 50-dma will continue to provide strong support. Current and future bounces off this level will provide for possible plays. If a price advance does follow through, we expect to see light resistance at the 10-dma ($135.34). Above this level we are still targeting a break above the 52-week high of $145.44, to trigger a possible entry. Design your exits in front of the mid-April earnings, which could coincide with the split announcement.



Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked -5.25



GLW - Corning Incorporated $188.00 -9.50 (-26.38)

The transformation from a slow growing houseware manufacturing company into a rapidly advancing fiber optics business has been a remarkable success for Corning. The arrival of Corning's CEO, Roger Ackerman, in 1996 marked the beginning of this transformation. Under Ackerman, GLW discarded its weak performing health care services business, as well as its famous, but slow growing houseware division. The move into fiber optic communications has enabled the company to be better recognized by the investing public and to participate in the advancement of fiber optic wiring. On Wednesday, the company announced a deal with Carrier 1, a European provider of voice and Internet related communications equipment, to deploy Corning's optical fiber in Europe. Though this is good news for the company, the stock mostly mirrored a decline in technology stocks. Like many of today's large cap technology stocks, GLW was able to generate a strong bounce off its 50-dma ($181.07). Good volume accompanied the bounce, which sent the stock rising 8 points higher to close at $188. If today's price action marks a reversal, we expect to see prices climb back to the double century mark ($200) for resistance (previously support). If prices can run higher through this level, then expect to see stiff resistance at the 52-week high ($226.44). However, if general market conditions tend to weigh heavily on GLW, then solid support should remain at the 50- dma and still further down at the $170 level. Look to take advantage of buying opportunities off support levels, when combined with good volume. On 4/27, the Shareholder's will meet, we anticipate a split being announced.



Picked on Mar 24th @ $214.38
Change since picked -26.38



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $130.75 -4.25 (-11.63)

Not only is HWP well known for its top-quality hardware products, but it also holds a special niche in its printer division. Within this division HWP has been getting consistently growth from its consumable printer supplies (I.E. printer paper and ink cartridges). This segment of the company has provided steady earnings growth, which in turn has provided investors with solid gains. As for the stock performance, the last couple of days HWP has backed off its recent highs and today closed at $130.75, down 3.14% on the day. After breaking below its lower consolidation range of $138, HWP was able to find support along the 50-dma ($129.43). If weakness in the technology market further plagues HWP, we expect to see strong support at $125. If strong bounces off support reverse the downtrend, then we'd expect resistance to be felt initially at $135. Higher up, more resistance is likely to be stronger at $140, which is bolstered by both the 10 and 20- dma's ($141.33 and $141.62). Target your entries when prices bounce off support or run through these resistance levels. We expect a split announcement to come on mid-May earnings report, if not prior.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked -2.25



INTC - Intel Corporation $127.00 -4.88 (-12.06)

After reporting in Tuesday's write-up that Intel already had the faster sub-$1000 PC processor, the Celeron 533, INTC has again chosen to raise its own bar in this market. On Wednesday, the company announced the release of its 600-megahertz and 566- megahertz Celeron computer chips, further improving speeds in the sub-$1000 PC market. General manager of the Desktop Products Group, Pat Gelsinger, stated, "Several more Celeron processor family members are due before June, reinforcing our leadership position in the value PC market segment." In addition to this positive news, investment bank ING Barings reiterated a 'buy' rating and set an 18-month price target of $180 on the stock. Reasons for the buy rating were: strong demand and pricing in all speed segments, flash memory, and Web-hosting. Announcements like this have been a real boost to the stock, but this week has been marked by profit taking. After falling nearly 5 points today, INTC finally hit its intra-day low at $123.06, before regaining its $125 support level. Given the strong volume bounce off the low, we expect near term support to remain firm at $125. Good support should also be encountered at $120, if prices continue to slip. Look for hard bounces off support to trigger entries. For upward advances the stock may find stiff resistance at $135, which is reinforced by a 5 and 10-dma tandem ($135.29 and $136.65). Look for heavy volume to accompany a run through resistance, before adding to positions. Our split may come on the earnings announcement of 4/18. Plan to exit ahead of the earnings report.



Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked -2.88



MCRL - Micrel $102.31 -7.13 (-7.56)

Micrel was hit with some profit taking in the latest market correction. With the exception of a few days, MCRL has been stuck in a trading range for the entire month of March. This is probably a good thing considering the recent market weakness. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/27, before the bell, and we are looking for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release. In the near-term, the stock has psychological support at $100 and technical support at the 50-dma ($95). Set stops under $95 as protection. There is resistance at $110 and then $116. Start new plays on a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $110. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market. Plan to exit in front earnings unless they announce a split beforehand. If this happens, plan to exit in the following trading session.



Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked -3.63



MER - Merrill Lynch $103.69 -3.06 (-10.06)

The drift lower for the shares of MER has been relatively painless when you consider the alternatives. MER did break below $105 support but the stock is still comfortably ahead of the $100 level. It does not look like too many people want to exit this stock when it appears very likely that the Company will announce a blowout quarter and a split sometime in mid-April. There was a news item of some consequence, but largely ignored by the market today. MER along with several other major brokerages, announced that they would come together to provide prices on new bond issues over the Internet, as part of the recently created online securities venture known as Syndicate.Hub. We remain comfortable buying shares of MER as long as it stays above $100. A drop below that price could be troublesome and we certainly want to be out of the way if the stock started trading in double digits again. A couple of days of trading above the previous day's highs would give us more confidence that the selling of MER is over.



Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -6.25



QCOM - Qualcomm $145.23 -12.27 (-0.78)

Understandably, QCOM could not sustain the wonderful breakout the stock enjoyed earlier in the week. There has been plenty of good news for this communications giant. Despite that fact though, QCOM could not defend itself against the waves of selling that have punished many of the NASDAQ's technology leaders. The settlement of their patent infringement lawsuits with Motorola earlier in the week, prompted Lehman Brothers to reiterate their Buy recommendation and raise their target price to $180 from $160. Proof of the Company's continued leadership in the wireless communications field came today when QCOM, along with Sprint PCS and Samsung, successfully tested the first voice call using third generation CDMA technology. Unfortunately, good news has been largely ignored the past few days. We fully expect QCOM to emerge as one of the favorite stocks when a NASDAQ rally begins. The question is when will the selling stop? Be careful of a gap up open tomorrow followed by a rollover. If tomorrow the stock can stay positive for the first half of trading, some confidence may creep in. The old trading range was $120-$150. QCOM has slipped back into that range so it is not impossible for the stock to fall all the way back to $120 if the NASDAQ continues to correct. A close above $150 and we may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and QCOM could stage a pre-earnings run. Earnings are anticipated during the last week of April and we will be exiting this position before then.



Picked on Mar 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked  -9.58



TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated $163.13 -7.69 (-13.31)

There was a lot of good news for TXN today. Sony selected TXN's low power, programmable digital signal processor (DSP) for its VAIO Music Clip Internet Audio Player. TXN was also ranked No.1 for the 3rd year in a row by GartnerGroup's Dataquest as the leader in the power management and interface sector. Despite these things, the stock couldn't withstand the broad-based downturn in tech stocks today. The stock started out okay, opening at $170.81 and trading to its high of $171 in the first half-hour. From there, things went downhill, as the stock traded with the rest of the techs, giving up ground steadily throughout the afternoon. As with most of the techs, it hit its low in the afternoon selloff before bouncing sharply with the market. This down move to $155 brought the stock to within 5 points of its 50- dma and psychological support at $150. All of this took place on volume of 6.31M. Going forward from here, there is some support at $160 and then today's low at $155. Set a stop under the 50- dma ($150) to prevent further loses in the event of another downturn. If the late recovery follows through, expect resistance at $165 and then $170. Confirmation of a true reversal to the upside will be made if and when the stock crosses back above significant moving averages (5, 10 and 20-dma's all sitting above between $172-$174). Use caution initiation a new position until you confirm positive momentum and direction for the broader market and semi-sector. Plan to exit the position prior to earnings later in April.



Picked on Mar 28th @ $178.88
Changed since picked -15.76



YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $169.50 -7.56 (-24.50)

There sure is a lot of pressure on Internet stocks right now. Yesterday, Mark Mobius opened his big mouth and suggested that many Internet stocks are overvalued and are due for further corrections of between 50%-90% of their highs. 50% of Yahoo!'s high puts the stock at $125. That fear factor has put some pressure on the stock the past two days. There is some debate as to whether we are still in the midst of the third 10% NASDAQ correction or the fourth. Actually, this is probably a continuation of the third correction. However, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) did manage to make a new high, so we contend that the NDX is in the midst of its fourth 10% correction, which has proven to be a good buying opportunity. Yahoo! is a huge component of the NDX and we look for it to bounce nicely if the NDX does. Yahoo! is announcing earnings after the close on Wednesday and we expect an anticipatory rally before we exit this position no later than just before the announcement. YHOO was under pressure yesterday, after three major video game producers accused Yahoo! of giving people access to counterfeit games and game devices via its online shopping area. Today the bad news continued, as it was announced that the FTC is investigating illegal consumer privacy laws that may have been violated on the Yahoo website. Hopefully you stepped to the sidelines after Yahoo! sliced through the $185 support. Nothing wrong with taking a loss, it's good practice. Yahoo! has fallen right back into its old trading range. $150 is great support and a good place to pick up the stock if we were to get that lucky. Otherwise be very careful about buying the stock here, especially on a gap-up open. Although it appears that the end of the quarter profit taking could be over, you do not want to be long Yahoo! if it trades below today's low of $160.25.



Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -22.25



SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

ALKS - Alkermes $89.19 -3.25 (-14.13)

Catching a falling knife sure can be painful. We hope you paid heed to our warning of avoiding this stock if it took out the previous day's low. Although the open was higher than the previous day's low, the stock quickly dropped below it, resulting in a three-point loss. At the worst, we hope you were out of the stock when it crashed through the very important $100 level.



Picked on March 28th @ $108.50

Profit/Loss = -19.31 (-18%)
Best Profit = +0.13 (0%)



CMRC - Commerce One $173.31 -9.69 (-50.38)

The Business to Business (B2B) sector has taken the recent decline in the NASDAQ particularly hard. CMRC, which has been no exception to this drop, has seen shares drop over 50 points this week alone! Our stop of $196.75 protected us from much of this decline, while also giving the stock every opportunity to rebound. Though we believe the B2B sector will continue to generate good momentum runs, for now we'll wait for selling pressure to subside. We'll keep you up to date on further potential play as they present themselves.



Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52

Profit/Loss = -49.21 (-22%)
Best Profit = +3.98 (+2%)



ERICY - LM Ericsson $85.50 -4.62 (-17.31)

We have been faked out again as $100 continues to be an insurmountable obstacle for ERICY. In fact, the stock has been whacked harder than most and we have to drop this play because it is dropping below support levels. What is really amazing, is that ERICY had a monster news item when the Company landed a $630 million contract to develop a new cell phone network in China. Unfortunately nobody was listening. They were too busy selling. ERICY found some old support down in the low $80's. We are hoping for a gap up bounce opening to help ease the pain while exiting this position. If the stock breaks below today's low it looks like the stock could drop straight to $70.



Picked on Mar 26th @ $102.81

Profit/Loss = -17.31 (17%)
Best Profit = -1.43  (-1%)



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

GS - Goldman Sachs Group $106.88 -7.31 (-14.44)

The announcement of newly formed Syndicate.Hub couldn't help GS today. Six leading Wall Street securities firms, GS, J.P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Salomon Smith Barney formed the new Internet portal to provide institutional investors with information about new fixed income securities (i.e. bonds). The investors and dealers will be electronically linked so they can get real-time info on the new issues. GS had a decent opening today at $112.31, hit a high of $115, but closed near the low of the day. GS broke through its major support, the 20-dma at $108.81. Time to close out this play. Look to exit Friday on strength.



Picked on Mar 26th @$121.31

Profit/Loss -14.43 (-12%)
Best Profit -1.93  (-2%)



SNDK - SanDisk $108.06 -9.88 (-24.50)

SanDisk broke down on Thursday. The stock traded below its support levels and closed on its intra-day low. Due to the recent weakness in the broader market and the weak close on SNDK, we are dropping this stock now and moving on. Hopefully, you had your stops in and got out on Wednesday. If not, set tight stops at $106 and look to exit on strength on Friday.



Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00

Profit/Loss = -21.94 (-17%)
Best Profit = +16.00 (+12%)



XLNX - Xilinx Incorporated $76.88 -3.56 (-5.75)

Our Xilinx play, although short lived, has shown us some underlying weakness that we feel is significant enough to drop this play early. Yesterday's 4.44 point decline came on heavier than expected volume (6.3m), and preceded a gap down at today's open. Our XLNX play, which originally closed above its 52-week high, was primarily intended to continue the breakout to higher prices. The strategy for our initial entry was a close above $88.44. This allowed us to avoid losing money on a price decline, while at the same time giving the stock every opportunity to advance. We'll keep you posted on future developments on this stock.



Picked on Mar 28th @ $84.88

Profit/Loss = -8.00 (-9%)
Best Profit = +1.38 (+2%)



 


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