NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
ERICY - LM Ericsson $102.81 (+9.25)
It is the start of the second quarter and money managers were
placing their bets all last week trying to find the winners for
the second round of "Stock Market 2000". If early trends
continue, then wireless stocks could easily maintain their
leadership role and keep bringing in institutional cash. Ericsson
is a decided leader within this group and the Company made two
positive announcements last week. First of all, they revealed the
R190, the world's smallest and lightest satellite/GSM dual mode
phone. You think anybody over at Iridium was jealous? Ericsson,
also last week, announced that their wireless broadband access
system, MINI-LINK BAS is now in service in Oslo. ERICY is the
leader in microwave transmission technology and has MINI-LINK
units installed in more than 100 countries. ERICY announced a 4:1
split way back in January. The split is contingent upon a
shareholder vote to be held at the March 31st Annual Meeting. A
payable date will be announced soon after. A 4:1 split seems a
bit odd for a $100 stock, but it has to do with the Company
bringing the ADR more in line with the home traded stock. When we
last visited ERICY, the stock was having trouble staying above
$100. The market correction forced us to drop the stock as a
play. Here we are again. With the split pending, we feel that
ERICY is finally ready to make a move. Another up day like
Friday's and we will see the MACD cross over into bullish
territory and the race may be on. We like the stock here as long
as it stays above $100. A move above the all time high resistance
point of $105.25 would be very bullish and we would have no
problem taking a position once a new high is confirmed. There
appears to be some support at $95 if the stock is unable to stay
above $100. Earnings are coming out at the end of April and we
will be exiting this position before then.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $102.81
Change since picked 0.00
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MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network, Inc. $98.06 (+8.19)
There never seems to be enough bandwidth. N.Y.-based MFNX is
solving this problem. The Company, which operates fiber-optic
networks in Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington,
DC, is changing the fiber optic industry by eliminating the
bandwidth barrier and developing a new pricing model for broadband
capacity. MFNX offers unlimited and un-metered bandwidth at a
fixed cost in key metropolitan areas. The Company is expanding
into 51 cities in North America as well as planning to go
international by building fiber optic networks in 16 European
cities. This past Thursday, MFNX announced that it had signed a
second multi-million dollar optical Internet deal with Nortel
Networks for state-of-the art Optical Internet technology
equipment to connect major European cities. Earlier in the month
(March 2nd), the Company announced their fourth stock split ((2:1)
since going public in 1997. This marks the second such split for
shares of MFNX in the past year. The split covers both class A
and B shares of the Company. The payable date for this split is
set for 4/17/00. Since the last split, the share price has gone
on to nearly double, hitting a new split adjusted high of $99.75
in Friday's trading. At this point, the stock is sitting just
above midrange in the ascending channel it formed at the beginning
of this month. In terms of support, you have some at $95, with
more lined up back between $92-$93, bolstered by the 5-dma at
$91.50. Stops should be placed below the 10-dma at $89.
Resistance is now a close above the century mark. Use a bounce
off any of the support levels or a breakout above $100,
accompanied by strong volume (average 3-month daily volume 2.35M)
to start a new play. Otherwise, look for a close over $100 before
initiating positions, but expect a gap to occur on the open if and
when that occurs. Plan to exit before 4/17/00, the payable date
set by the Board of Directors.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $98.06
Changed since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
GLW - Corning Incorporated $214.38 (+25.00)
When one thinks of Corning, houseware items might come to mind.
Amazingly, the same Company who once was well known for their pots
and pans now is a leading producer of fiber optics and
semiconductor components. A brief look into the Company shows that
GLW is divided into three major divisions: fiber optics, photonics
and liquid crystal displays. The fiber optic and photonic segments
present the highest levels of growth. These divisions also fill a
niche in the telecommunications industry, which is currently in
short supply. This demand is providing solid bottom line results
for the Company. Just last week, the Company announced that it was
forecasting higher than expected earnings, due to robust demand
from several phone companies. The product behind the upbeat
earnings forecast was GLW's LEAF fiber cable, which enables more
data transmissions over longer distances. Reporting in a
statement, Corning CEO, Roger Ackerman, explained "Demand for our
LEAF optical fiber used by leading long-distance providers
worldwide continues to grow at a significant rate and is the
primary reason for our improved first-quarter earnings outlook."
The stock has since responded favorably to the announcement and
continues to remain well above previous split-levels. Shareholders
will vote to increase the number of authorized shares from 500m to
1.2b at the Annual Shareholders meeting on April 27th, which will
enable the Company to split its shares 2:1. Presently, the stock
has found an initial support level at $214. A bounce from current
levels and/or a breach above the stocks all-time high of $226.44,
will signal an entry. With further gains to the upside, we believe
future resistance for the stock will likely be found at the $240
mark. By chance, if prices happen to decline prior to the run,
then look for the first level of support to be found at the 5-dma
($205.46). Beyond this level, strong support should be felt at the
psychologically significant double century mark ($200). We
suggest a stop below this level just in case the stocks sours.
Look for potential plays when the stock gives hard bounces off
support. Plan to exit ahead of the Shareholder's Annual Meeting
4/27, in anticipation of a split announcement.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $214.38
Change since picked 0.00
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GS - Goldman Sachs Group $121.31 (+4.81)
Started in New York in 1869 by Marcus Goldman, going door-to-door
to local businesses to purchase customer promissory notes and
resell them to the NY commercial banks, GS had a huge IPO (69M
shares) on 5/4/99. They were the last of the big-boy partnerships
on Wall Street. GS evolved from the commercial paper business to
a global investment banking and securities firm. There are two
main businesses: Global Capital Markets and Asset Management and
Securities Services. Clients include rich people (a.k.a. "high-
net-worth individuals"), corporations, financial institutions and
governments. The Company runs offices in over 20 countries with
its headquarters in N.Y and major offices in world financial
centers such as London, Frankfurt, Tokyo and Hong Kong. GS looks
very promising because of the large number of new equity offering
in the pipeline and the global explosion in mergers and
acquisitions. Since going public, the Company has made a habit of
reporting strong numbers and this past week was no exception. On
3/21/00, GS announced very strong earnings of $1.76 a share (67%
first quarter increase), exceeding the Wall Street forecast of
$1.48 a share. Like many of their brethren, shares of this Company
have seen a significant rise over the last month, as financials,
and in particular brokerages, woke up to re-ignite the blue chips
and the rally in the DOW. Shares of GS have increased over 50% in
that time, climbing from around $80 in the later part of February,
to Friday's intraday record of $128. Prior to now, shares of the
Company have never split. They are due! Currently, the Company
has 4B shares authorized with 448.87M shares outstanding and a
float of 370.8M. In terms of initiating new positions, the stock
is sitting above support at $118 (5-dma), with additional support
at $113, the 10-dma. Resistance is now Friday's intraday high.
Set stops under the 10-dma to avoid a reversal while allowing for
some swing. Use a bounce off support or a breakout above Friday's
high, accompanied by strong volume (average 3-month daily volume
is $1.05M), to start a new play. We anticipate an announcement
prior to the next earnings release, scheduled in June, probably
triggered by a BoD meeting. We will update as to when that will
occur as that information becomes available. Look to exit after
the announcement unless conditions merit an earlier exit.
Picked on Mar 26th @ $121.31
Changed since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
AXP - American Express $155.63 (+12.00)
For years, many analysts have suggested that the drug sector is an
excellent place to invest long term in order to take advantage of
the aging baby boomer demographic. We suggest that AXP is another
excellent way to profit from this dynamic. AXP is a huge player
in the Travel Services business as well as having a very well
respected core of Financial Advisors. Both of these businesses
should benefit hugely by catering to our country's aging
population. Last week, AXP became the first major Financial
Services Company to allow its advisors to become franchise owners.
This move may help the Company to attract some of the best
advisors in the country. In the short term, AXP is benefiting
from a week that saw many brokerage firms report much better than
expected earnings. AXP also staged a huge "relief" rally on the
heels of the Fed announcement that saw Greenspan and company only
raise rates a quarter of a point. Also in the short term, AXP has
been rallying behind the new perception that they will become an
improved and more efficient Company due to management's continuing
focus on how to use the Internet to streamline their customer
service and product offerings. What began two weeks ago as a
value play is fast becoming a momentum play as AXP has been
slicing through overhead support day after day. We got the big
move we were looking for and it now appears that AXP might have
reached a level of consolidation. A little sideways action that
establishes solid support in the mid $150's would give the stock
the necessary strength to undertake the task of moving towards its
old highs. The RSI indicates that AXP may be a little overbought
here and the stock needs to cool off a bit. Remember, stocks can
go from overbought to really overbought. If AXP rallies to
resistance at $160 and starts to pull back, you may want to take
profits. Otherwise, we suggest that you keep your stop in there
at $150 in the hopes that AXP can continue its upside move. AXP
will be splitting 3:1 on May 10th. We will be exiting this
position before the earnings announcement on April 24th.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +32.88
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CMRC - Commerce One $223.69 (+5.56)
CMRC's rapid build out into the relatively new Business-to-
Business (B2B) field has boosted the Company with a good head
start in this fast growing sector. This is important, because
existing corporations, who are looking for B2B solutions, will
likely chose an established company (CMRC) over a newcomer to the
industry. This was evidenced previously when the major automakers
enlisted Commerce One to assist in their plan to build a B2B
marketplace. Better yet for the Company was the news Friday that
4 major defense/aerospace contractors were also planning to
establish a centralized market, tapping Commerce One to head up
the project. As for the stock, Friday's price action may have
marked the beginning of an upward advance. The stock broke through
our previously mentioned $220 resistance with a strong gap on
improved volume. Friday's close above this level offers us the
first beacon of hope for higher prices, and consequently a signal
to open new positions. For further confirmation, look for the
stock to break above the upper consolidation range of $225 before
opening positions. If prices continue to advance, then look for
light resistance at $227, which is followed by stiff resistance at
$250. Other entry points would be signaled by price bounces off
light support at the 5-dma ($208.41), and stronger support at
$200. Price moves that drop below the $195 mark should be
protected by a stop. The 50-dma ($196.73) may provide some degree
of support before $195, if prices do in fact decline. Look to exit
positions ahead of the payable date of 4/19, as our normal policy
advises.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52
Change since picked +1.17
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EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $173.31 (+22.06)
EXDS was added to "Morgan's List" on 3/24/00. The list is the new
Morgan Stanley Internet Index (MOX); a vehicle to invest in U.S.
publicly traded Internet businesses. Many were called, but only 28
were chosen from nine Internet sectors. EXDS was included in the
Internet infrastructure services sector along with Covad (COVD),
InterNap (INAP) and MCI WorldCom (WCOM). EXDS is a leading
provider of complex Internet hosting for enterprises with mission-
critical Internet operations. In simple words, EXDS is a web
hosting company that is used with confidence by the "big guys".
EXDS can manage sophisticated systems and networks. In addition,
EXDS has a subsidiary called Service Metrics. Service Metrics
monitors and measures web site performance. As for the stock, the
high Friday was set early on at $177.50. From there, the stock
sold off with the broader markets, finishing up off the low of
$171.94. Volume was low at 3.3M shares. For now, we would suggest
that you trail a stop just under support levels to protect
profits. Support is at the 5-dma of $162, then closely followed by
the 10 and 20-dma's both sitting around $155. Resistance is still
at the high of $175. Use a bounce off any of the support levels or
a breakout above $175 on strong volume to start a new play. Exit
before the earnings (late April). The split payable date of
06/20/00 may allow for us to re-enter the play after earnings for
a split run.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.25
Changed since picked +22.06
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $163.56 (+14.06)
Motorola is a core holding for many institutions for many
justifiable reasons. MOT is a leader in two of the strongest
sectors of the market; semiconductors and wireless communications.
Chip sales have exploded in the early part of this year and every
indication is that very strong sales will continue throughout the
year. Wireless stocks have been very hot this year because we are
entering a phase were people will be upgrading to the next
generation of wireless products. MOT is a leader in developing
multi-function wireless products that are beginning to offer many
of our favorite PC functions, most notably, wireless e-mail and
Internet access. When some of the hottest stocks of the "New
Economy" began to cool off last week in the wake of the MSTR
meltdown, a lot of money found its way into the huge technology
leaders like MOT. We look for this trend to continue and expect
more money to find its way into a MOT investment. MOT has been
able to make a move from a nice base at $150. We were encouraged
that MOT was able to make a new high for the week on Friday before
pulling back. The pull back was certainly understandable as
short-term traders were probably just pocketing profits after a
great week and raising a little cash for next week. There is some
support at the 10-dma at $159. This may be an important price to
watch, so make sure MOT stays above it early next week to confirm
the uptrend. If MOT continues moving higher, we anticipate a
little resistance at $170 followed by $180. We will be exiting
this position before the earnings announcement on April 18th.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked +11.81
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NEWP - Newport Corporation $156.00 (+25.00)
Fiber optic communication equipment and services are developing at
a rapid-fire pace and present an important advancement in world
communications. This change has been widely recognized by the
investment community, who has been creating great excitement in
this sector. As for the stock, Friday's price action signaled our
initial entry, when the price crossed above resistance at the 20-
dma. Although the volume remained relatively light on the advance,
Friday has often times been known as a lighter trading day. We
anticipate more resistance will likely be felt at $160, $170 and
higher yet at $180. Price breaks through resistance will trigger
our buys if volume can pick up and remain strong (400k or better).
We are using good volume on price runs as an important indication
of higher prices. This suggests that due to greater demand, prices
will continue to rise. If buying dries up and prices fall, look
for the stock to meet with initial support at $150 and then
further back at $144, bolstered by the 30-dma ($143.20). The 5-
dma, which has inched higher, should also provide some degree of
support at $138.50. If prices do react with a solid bounce off
these support levels, look to open potential plays. For now, our
exit date will depend on support and resistance to determine exit
and entry points. We will keep you updated.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $150.88
Change since picked +5.12
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $223.50 (+23.63)
Shares of the telecom systems and equipment supplier, Nokia,
managed to retain a steady recovery throughout the week, gaining
$23.63 points. Positive news for the Company has been occurring on
regular basis. Announcements this week have probably played a
sizeable role in pushing prices higher. Our report earlier in the
week stated that NOK planned to be a leader in dispersing
broadband DSL access throughout Europe. This goes a long way in
defining the Company's aggressive growth philosophy. It's this
aggressiveness that has spurred much enthusiasm for Nokia's stock.
Some of this enthusiasm was reflected in the news Friday that
Prudential Securities had reiterated their Strong Buy
recommendation and upped their price target on the stock to $275.
Continuing its weeklong price run, the stock managed to close at
$223.50, up 12% on the week. Friday's run-up did manage to make an
intra-day record high of $227.94, before profit taking settled
prices just below the stocks all-time high close of $226.50. If
volume continues to remain strong, the first new entry will be
signaled by a close above the $226.50 mark. Further up, more
resistance will likely come at the $230 level. Previous tough
resistance of $220 now acts support, followed by the previous
support level of $216, bolstered by the 5-dma of $215.13. Given a
retracement through this level does occur, we expect the price to
find good support at $210, where the 10 and 20-dma's coalesce
($209.50 and $211.13). If prices do react with a solid bounce off
support, look to open new plays. Time your exits a day ahead of
the payable date of 4/7.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked +2.50
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NT - Nortel Networks $141.25 (+12.50)
Not another telecommunications company! NT is a telecommunications
company with a hot focus--optical networking. NT is the leader in
this market. NT's optical division, which delivers about 20% of
its revenue, is growing at 100% a year. NT and its subsidiaries,
produce telecommunication equipment that is sold to telephone
companies, cable-television companies, corporations, governments
and universities. In trading Friday, the stock bucked the trend,
actually trading to a new high midday before succumbing to overall
market pressure and falling off the later half of the day. The
range was $138.50 to $144.19 on decent volume of 6.4M. Resistance
is now at the new high. Support is sitting around Thursday's
close of $138, followed by the 5-dma of $134. Place stops under
$130 to limit losses. Use a bounce off any of the support levels
or a breakout above Friday's close on strong volume (average 3-
month daily volume is 6.5M) to start a new play. We will update
when the split dates are set. Earnings are expected after the
market on April 25th. As is our policy, plan to exit in front of
earnings. We may reenter later for the split run.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $137.25
Changed since picked +4.00
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NXTL - Nextel $154.19 (+0.44)
Nextel is a provider of digital and wireless communications
services in the United States. The Company's digital network is
one of the largest integrated wireless communications systems in
the U.S. Nextel also owns specialized mobile radio spectrum
holdings in all of the top 50 metropolitan areas across the
country. Shares of NXTL were hopping early in the morning on
Friday. As the NASDAQ pulled back, so did NXTL. The stock finished
down $4.88 on light volume. The Board of Directors announced a 2:1
stock split on 2/22 with a payable date of 6/6 so there is still
plenty of time to get in. The stock has support at the 5-dma,
currently at $151. Stronger support is the 10-dma, now at $149.
Set stops under $149 as protection. Resistance remains unchanged
at $160 and then $165. Open new positions on a bounce off of $151
or a breakout above $160. Only play on heavy volume in a rising
market. The split is two months away so we will plan to exit in
front of the April earnings and then reassess re-entering the play
for its split run thereafter. For now, the stock resides firmly
in the ascending channel it formed at the beginning of the year.
Friday's close places the stock right at the centerline of that
channel, a good sign going forward.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked +5.56
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PWR - Quanta Services $65.00 (+5.88)
Quanta Services provides specialty contracting and maintenance
services for electric and telecommunications infrastructures
throughout North America. The Company offers services to electric
utilities, telecommunication and cable television operators,
governmental entities, general contractors and builders, and
owners and managers of commercial and industrial properties. The
buzz on the stock is coming from its fiber optic services segment.
Quanta installs fiber optic transmission lines used in broadband
Internet Service networks. On Friday, shares of PWR traded to an
all time high on strong volume. The stock closed very close to the
high, which is also a good sign going into the 3:2 split, payable
on 4/7, now just 2 weeks away. There is support at $62 with
stronger support on the 5-dma at $60. Place stops under $60 to
limit losses. The stock closed right on resistance so we may see a
pullback before we see another new high. If PWR does continue to
move higher, resistance may show up at $70. Look for a bounce off
of $62 or a breakout above $70 on strong volume to start new
plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening
new positions. Exit by 4/6.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked +3.00
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $233.00 (+15.44)
Broadcom is a leading developer of highly integrated silicon
solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission over
existing communications infrastructures. Their products are used
in a wide variety of communications products including set-top
boxes, networking equipment and cable modems. The stock fell on
Friday courtesy of some profit taking after a pretty good week.
Volume was heavy as BRCM tested support following setting an all-
time high on Thursday. Broadcom is announcing earnings in mid-
April and the Company has scheduled its Annual Shareholder Meeting
on 4/27, at which time the shareholders will be voting on an
increase in authorized shares. We are looking for a split
announcement either with earnings or after the Annual Meeting.
There is still some time left on this play. Despite Friday's drop,
the stock managed to close just above the 5-dma at $132, although
support is now the 15-dma at $227 and then the 10 and 20-dma's at
$221. Set stops under $220 to lock in profits. Resistance is $248
and then $253. Use a bounce off of $220-225 or a breakout above
$240 to start new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only
in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of earnings or in the
trading session following the Annual Meeting, depending on the
timing of the earnings release.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +20.19
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C - Citigroup, Inc. $60.56 (+3.56)
Citigroup is practically synonymous with the term "financial
services". This company has everything from banking to brokerages
to insurance. Financial stocks are starting to rally, much of it
in conjunction with the huge bond rally last week. Why are these
stocks rallying right after a Fed rate hike? It is just another
example of Wall Street's penchant for selling-the-news. The rally
has occurred after two months of underperformance for the sector
based on interest rate worries. Citigroup announced a 3:2 split
last year during the April earnings period. The stock was at $70
at that time and it certainly seems possible that with the stock
at $60, another split could be coming. Earnings are due in the
middle of April. The big question is, how long will the rally
last? That's where technical analysis comes in. Friday saw
Citigroup retrace some of Thursday's move. The uptrend is still
intact because it did manage to trade above Thursday's high before
pulling back. As long as Citigroup can continue this stair
stepping pattern we will be comfortable holding this position. We
still see support at $58-$59. We will be exiting this position
before the earnings announcement.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -1.13
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EBAY - eBay $243.75 (+24.81)
Yahoo for rumors. On Friday, the Yahoo! (YHOO)- EBAY merger rumors
resurfaced, sending shares of EBAY to another all-time high. eBay
is the leading Internet-based auction house. The Company has
created a community of more than two million registered users that
use eBay as a place to socialize and conduct business in an online
trading environment. According to the EBAY website, the Company
will announce earnings on 4/25 after the bell and we are looking
for a split announcement to come out with the earnings release.
However, they already have enough shares to split so they could
announce a split at any time. In the meantime, there is light
support at $240 with stronger support at $220. Set stops under
$220 to lock in profits. Resistance is $250 and then $260. Open
new positions on a bounce off of $240 or a breakout above $250 on
heavy volume. The stock is flying on rumor right now and there may
be a pullback by Tuesday if no deal comes, so be sure to confirm
broader market sentiment before starting new plays. Exit no later
than 4/25 unless we get an announcement ahead of then.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked +24.81
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EFNT - Efficient Networks $169.00 (+12.50)
Modems, modems, modems…internal and external… that's what EFNT
manufactures. Based in Dallas, Texas, EFNT is a worldwide supplier
of digital subscriber lines (DSL) and customer premise equipment
(CPE). EFNT markets its products under the brand name SpeedStream.
Nortel publishes the software for its products. Some of the
Company's prestigious customers include Lucent Technologies, Covad
Communications and Hong Kong Telecom. Helping our play on Friday,
the Company announced that it will provide EarthLink (ELNK)
members with a variety of SpeedStream broadband access products.
Regarding trading on Friday, the stock traded in a big range,
hitting its high in the first half hour of trading, before
proceeding to sell off hard, closing down over 11 points at the
low of the day. Friday's action was not good, considering the
fact that this came on the heels of Thursday's record setting
performance. We would caution that more downside could be in
order as the stock finished weak on strong volume going into the
close, which points to continued pressure to start off next week.
The resistance is at the old high of $180. Support is light at the
5-dma of $167, followed with stronger support at $160. Expect
wide swings, but set a stop under $160 to protect against a
meltdown in the stock. As for our timing on the play, we are
still looking at the shareholders meeting on 4/12 as well as the
mid April earnings as triggering events for an announcement. Look
to exit in front of earnings unless we receive an announcement
prior to then.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $180.06
Changed since picked -11.06
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EMC - EMC Corporation $142.00 (+13.25)
Managing and storing massive amounts of data for the entire world,
EMC Corporation leads the charge by providing advanced methods to
accomplish this task. The Company, who is expected to grow its
bottom line by 35% this year, has been brought to the attention of
an excited investing public. On Friday, our initial entry was
signaled when the price broke through the ascending trendline to
set a new high ($145.44) before retracing to close at $142.
Although this is a good sign, it would have been better had
heavier volume (6.0m or better) accompanied the break. The end of
the trading week often times has lighter volume than during the
first part, so we're not terribly worried. On Monday, however, we
will be paying close attention to volume as an indication for a
continued run. Initially, we will be looking for resistance at the
buck fifty mark, and higher still at $160. Price advances through
resistance will signal possible entries, given volume does
improve. Nevertheless, if the stock is introduced to lower levels,
expect to see some support beginning at the 5-dma ($136.23), which
is providing trendline support. Further retracement will likely
encounter stiff resistance at $132. Look for distinct price
reversals from support to preserve the upward trend and provide
potential entries. With mid-April earnings on the horizon, we
anticipate an announcement. Look to exit in front of earnings
unless an announcement comes out beforehand.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked +6.87
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $142.38 (+3.38)
Hewlett-Packard, who has been known as producer of high quality
computing and imaging equipment, is now turning its sights to one
of the fastest growing segments of the technology market, the
Internet. HWP has confirmed that Internet related products would
be the basis for its future product offerings. To meet this
demand, HWP has consolidated its business to aim at these higher
growth opportunities. The Company's e-services program is a good
example of how it plans to accomplish this goal. Like many of the
other high-flying Internet related stocks, HWP has also done quite
well. This week, the stock remained in a relatively tight
consolidation range ($138 to $147). Friday's price action saw the
stock break back through support of $144, ending the day at
$142.38, down 3.31%. Stronger support still resides at $140, as
witnessed by Friday's bounce off this level ($140.06). The $140
mark is also bolstered by the 20-dma ($140.54), and slightly
higher by the 10-dma ($141.19). Still, more support subsists at
the $135 level, propped up by the 30-dma. For the stock to resume
its upward run, we're once again looking for a break above the
initial support level of $144. If good volume can accompany this
break, then we would expect for the stock to find further
resistance at the buck fifty mark. Price advances through these
resistance levels will trigger potential entries. A split
announcement may come with the mid-May earnings report; otherwise
it may come earlier.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +9.38
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INTC - Intel Corporation $139.06 (+9.19)
One look at the Intel chart and you'll know the Company is doing
something right! Over the last few weeks, few others have been
able to rival the strength of Intel's stock. After running to new
52-week new highs earlier in the week, INTC ran into some profit
taking that came in at the $145 range. The profit taking, which
began on Wednesday, capped off a 7-day run of consecutive higher
prices by hitting an all-time high of $145.38. Although a price
drop is still a decline in value, this mild consolidation leaves
investors with few reasons to be upset. Trading just 6.31 points
off its al-time high, the stock was able to close Wednesday's gap
($138.44), which may further indicate still higher prices yet to
come. However, just above this gap, INTC closed below the $140
support level, bolstered by a 5-dma ($139.84). The stock will have
to regain this level prior to future advances. If this sequence of
events does come to fruition, look to open new plays in route to
the next resistance level of $150. As for support, you've got some
at $135, then the 10-dma of $131.43 and the 20-dma of $123.82.
When and if the price bounces off these support levels,
accompanied by good volume, look to open new positions. Watch for
the upcoming earnings report to contain a possible split
announcement. Bear in mind, we still plan to exit the stock before
earnings are reported 4/18.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +9.19
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MCRL - Micrel $109.88 (+3.94)
Micrel Inc. makes a wide range of high-performance analog
integrated circuits. Their main product line is analog integrated
circuits for power management used in cellular telephones, battery
powered computers and desktop personal computers. The Company's
remaining standard products address other markets, including power
supplies and automotive, industrial, defense and avionics
electronics. Shares of MCRL spent the week testing support as
investor await news to move the stock. The Company is expected to
announce earnings on 4/27 before the bell and we are looking for a
split announcement to come out with the earnings release. Back to
the stock, which closed Friday right on the 20-dma, support has
moved up to $106 (5-dma) with stronger support at $100. Set stops
under $100 as protection. There is resistance at $111 and then
$116. Use a bounce off of $106 or a breakout above $111 to start
new plays. Open new positions on heavy volume, only in a rising
market. Plan to exit in front earnings unless they announce a
split prior to then. If we get a split before the earnings
announcement, exit in the following trading session.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked +3.94
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MER - Merrill Lynch $113.75 (+8.94)
If you are anything like some of us, then you sure have been
paying a lot of commissions recently as this market keeps swinging
around and forcing us to keep adjusting our short term and trading
portfolios. On top of that, we have seen one record month after
another of cash going into IPO's. With these trends in place, it
is not surprising that the largest brokerage firm is leaping to
new highs in anticipation of a record earnings announcement. In
the past several trading days we have seen huge numbers posted by
other Brokerage giants such as Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Bear
Stearns and Lehman Brothers. MER will be announcing their
earnings around April 18th (we will be able to confirm the actual
date as it approaches). MER is a strong split candidate due to
its stock price being in triple digits. MER's last split was
three years ago during the April earnings release. At that time,
MER was trading at $90. The stock subsequently rallied from the
announcement straight into the payable date. Even though we will
be exiting this position before the earnings release, we will
still be tracking the stock in anticipation of getting back in for
a split run. MER was one of the strongest performers on the NYSE
on Friday and indications are that MER will continue to establish
higher highs as long as the overall market can stay healthy. Do
not be surprised if there is a little profit taking along the way.
We are comfortable buying MER on intraday pullbacks as long as the
stock stays above the $110 support and does not take out any
previous day's lows.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked +3.81
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RIMM - Research In Motion Limited $147.75 (+14.87)
There is a strong interest in companies that are leading the
charge to turn our wireless phones into multi-faceted business
tools and this Canadian company is certainly right on the cutting
edge. RIMM's BlackBerry wireless email solution is a handheld
device with integrated email/organizer software, PC docking
cradle, PC synchronization software, single mailbox integration
and encryption abilities to keep communication between the device
and the home office safe and secure. Last week, RIMM and Open
Text (NASDAQ:OTEC) announced a collaboration that will allow
OTEC's Livelink systems users to go mobile. Livelink is a highly
scaleable e-business application. We got our breakout from the
downward channel yesterday and our suggested buy point at $135.75
was rewarded with a nice follow through rally. RIMM's stock price
pattern is now eerily reminiscent of similar patterns that have
driven the stock to new highs. With the old high sitting at
$175.75, we may be sitting on a nice winner here. With so many of
the smaller tech stocks pulling back, we are highly encouraged
that RIMM has been able to break out of its downtrend. There is a
little congestion in the low $150's that RIMM still needs to work
through. Support is back down at the breakout point of $135. We
will continue to monitor the stock looking for any pending events
such as a B of D meeting announcement that may suggest that a
split is likely. Otherwise, we look to exit this position no
later than right before the earnings announcement in late April.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $139.06
Change since picked +8.69
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SNDK - SanDisk $132.56 (+15.56)
SanDisk is the World's largest supplier of flash data storage
products. The Company has optimized its flash memory storage
solution, known as "system flash", to address the needs of many
emerging applications in the consumer electronics and
industrial/communications markets. These products are used in
digital cameras, wireless devices and portable music players. The
stock was soaring early in Friday's session. It traded up to
resistance but could not break free due to the pullback on the
NASDAQ. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19
(First Call) and we are looking for a split announcement to come
out with earnings. For now, support is the 5-dma at $127 with
strong support at the 10-dma, now at $125. Set stops under $125 as
protection. Resistance is $138 and then $147. Start new plays on a
bounce off of $127 or a breakout above $138. Open new positions
only on strong volume in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of
earnings.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00
Change since picked +2.56
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YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $194.00 (+22.87)
Who needs an expensive ISP like AOL when you can get online for
$9.95 and get just about every Internet service you could possible
need over at Yahoo!? YHOO's story is very well known but recent
events and announcements may have pricked the ears of traders.
Yahoo! has made several forays into making their site a complete
e-business community and solutions provider. One possible huge
move to expand their offerings would be a merger with EBay.
Speculation has been running rampant all week about this
possibility, and it could have been a reason for YHOO's recent
rally. A merger could potentially benefit both companies. The
most likely scenario for Yahoo!'s strength is the fact that the
stock is a core holding and will generally trade with the NASDAQ.
What would really get the stock moving would be another split
announcement. Earnings are coming up in mid April, which would be
a good time to announce a split. We fully expect Yahoo! to rally
into its earnings date on speculation of a good quarter and/or the
possibility of a split. We will, of course, be exiting this
position no later than right before the earnings. Following the
earnings, there is the Annual Meeting on May 12th where
shareholders will be voting to increase the number of authorized
shares. Yahoo! seems to have been developing a rounded bottom
over the past few months. After peaking at the end of last year,
we like the chances that the consolidation is over and that this
trader's favorite is ready to start moving again. Yahoo! has
struggled a bit with the psychologically important $200 level as
it keeps trading above it to only fall below. We really like
Yahoo!'s chances to make a big move if it can close above last
weeks high of $205.63. If that did happen, it could be a good
entry point. You could also try and trade the $185-$200 range.
There is very good support at $180.
Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked +2.25
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
CHINA - China.com $103.75 (-8.25)
China.com is struggling right now. The stock has now experienced
two failed rallies, as it is not able to break through resistance
at $110. We have not been too impressed with the declining volume
either. The Company is not expected to set the payable date for
the split until the General Meeting on 4/28, so we feel that there
are better plays and we are closing this play tonight. As we
approach the meeting, we would expect momentum to pick up and may
look to re-enter at that time. For now, place hard stops at $102
and look to exit on strength on Monday.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $110.00
Profit/Loss = -6.25 (-6%)
Best Profit = +8.13 (+7%)
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PHG - Koninklijke Philips Electronics $180.06 (+5.00)
Despite a 4:1 split announcement, this behemoth seems to just be
loitering around. At first, it looked like PHG was going to be a
safe harbor for scared money. Since that scenario did not come
about we have decided to drop this play. PHG still looks good
long term. $171 is critical support. So a trade below that price
could send the stock down to the $150's. We may look to re-enter
this play after details of the split are made available and the
split payable date approaches.
Picked Mar 21st @ $185.00
Profit/Loss = -4.94 (-3%)
Best Profit = -2.31 (-1%)
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SFA - Scientific-Atlanta $140.00 (+10.19)
Thursday, we told you that we would be dropping SFA because of the
split being paid on Monday. We also suggested that you might want
to sell the open, which, as luck would have it, turned out to be
the high print of the day. We will continue to monitor this play.
Odds are that SFA will run into a little selling after the split.
We would like to see support successfully tested at $130 before
renewing our interest.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $146.19
Profit/Loss = -6.19 (-4%)
Best Profit = +11.19 (+8%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
CHKP - Check Point Software $218.50 (-17.00)
Throughout the week, CHKP showed much vulnerability to market
weakness and little response to market strength. Our resistance
level of $231 proved to be too much for CHKP, whose shares hit
this level on Friday before renewed selling once again set in.
This was the third straight day that prices tested this level but
were unable to penetrate. This weakness, which has also been
accompanied by lackluster volume, leads us to believe that the
stock has not yet finished with its downside correction. We will
keep you updated as further potential plays present themselves.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $219.13
Profit/Loss = -0.63 (0%)
Best Profit = +30.88 (+14%)
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PPRO - PurchasePro.com $119.50 (-32.25)
PPRO dropped $3.94 on news that Bear Stearns earnings estimates
were adjusted down for 2000. The 2000 loss estimate was increased
from $0.92 cents to $1.74. This hurt the stock, which traded down
from its high in the morning to finish just off the lows for the
day. More important, volume picked up into the close, pushing the
stock below important support at $120 and indicating the stock
could come under continued pressure going into next week. Coming
off the recently set low, this is starting to look very much like
a failed rally, in which case a retest of the 50-dma back at $112
looks in order. The close was proof enough that this stock is
unlikely to reverse before heading lower. More than we are
willing to stomach, so we are dropping the play. On Monday, set a
tight stop below the current level and look for any upside move to
sell into.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.75
Profit/Loss = -32.25 (-21%)
Best Profit = +12.25 (+8%)
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