NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
NEWP - Newport Corporation $150.88 +12.38 (+19.88)
The science of fiber optics represents the destined course of
communication for the 21st century. NEWP, who makes a line of
instruments and components for laser and fiber optic solutions,
has recently encountered a whole new level of demand for its
products. This demand is stemming from its fiber optic
communications products, which will handily represent the majority
of its revenues. Combine this demand with an already bullish fiber
optic sector and you've got the makings of a possible momentum
play. Momentum has already played its part in pushing the stock to
recent 52-week highs and it may be getting geared for another run.
On May 17th, shareholders will vote to increase authorized shares,
in establishment of a previously announced 3:1 stock split. In
anticipation of more shares being authorized, and as the recent
price breakout suggests, a momentum run may be in the works.
Advancing strongly over the last 2 days, the move began from
strong price support at $115, bolstered by the 50-dma ($115.35).
Strong volume also remains a good indication that a price advance
may occur. An initial entry signal will come when prices cross
support at the 20-dma ($150.92). Further up, look for the next
levels of resistance to be felt at the $170 and $180 marks.
Potential plays will be present when the stock can close above
resistance, on good volume. Look for the stock to meet light
support at $144, if prices retrace. More support may be met at the
$133 mark (5-dma). If both these levels are broken, then a double
bottom may end up forming at the support of $115. Be aware that
strong volume may suggest higher prices, but potential plays can
still present themselves with hard bounces off support. We will
keep you posted on our exit date. For now we'll use support and
resistance to determine exit and entry points.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $150.88
Change since picked 0.00
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NT - Nortel Networks $137.25 +3.25 (+8.50)
Not another telecommunications company! NT is a telecommunications
company with a hot focus--optical networking. NT is the leader in
this market. NT's optical division, which delivers about 20% of
its revenue, is growing at 100% a year. The Company and its
subsidiaries produce telecommunication equipment that is sold to
telephone companies, cable television companies, corporations,
governments and universities. Its products include central
switching systems, broadband networks and cellular mobile-telecom
switches. NT is special in that much like Lucent Technologies
(LU), Siemens (SMAWY) and Alcatel (ALA), they are one of a handful
of companies able to provide a complete telecommunications gear
lineup. This is important because it positions them as a leader
in one of the hottest segments in the market. Regarding the
capital structure of the Company, they have an unlimited number of
shares authorized with 1.4 billion outstanding and a float of
640.0M. They previously split on 1/98 and 8/99. Both splits were
2:1's. This time around, they announced a 2:1 split on 1/25/00.
The pertinent dates of the split will be announced after the next
shareholders meeting (meeting date is unknown at this time). The
stock has traded up from the 52-week low this time last year
($29.50) to today's newly established high. Regarding our play,
support is at $130, just below the 5-dma at $131. Further support
can be found at the 10-dma of $126. The resistance is at the new
high of $137.25. Place stops under $120 (significant support) to
limit losses. Use a bounce off any of the support levels or a
breakout above $137 on strong volume (average 3-month daily volume
is 6.5M) to start a new play. We will update as to when the dates
for the split are set. Between now and the split, earnings are
expected after the market on April 25th. As is our policy, plan
to exit in front of earnings. We will then reassess the situation
for a possible reentry for the split run.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $137.25
Changed since picked 0.00
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PWR - Quanta Services $62.00 +5.50 (+2.87)
Quanta Services provides specialty contracting and maintenance
services primarily for electric and telecommunications
infrastructure in North America. The Company provides services to
electric utilities, telecommunication and cable television
operators, governmental entities, general contractors and
builders, and owners and managers of commercial and industrial
properties. Investors have been drawn to the stock due to its
fiber optic services segment, which installs fiber optic
transmission lines for broadband Internet Service. The stock has
been hot, soaring from $35 in February, to a high of $62 on
Thursday. On 3/14, the Board of Directors announced a 3:2 split
with a payable date of 4/7. The stock has strong momentum going
into the split and we feel that the trend will continue.
Thursday, the stock staged a breakout following a bull flag
retracement to the 10-dma. There is support for the stock at $59
(5-dma). Stronger support is the 10-dma at $56. Resistance has
taken out on Thursday so there may be resistance at $65 or $70.
Start new plays on a bounce off of $60 to $59 or a breakout above
$65 on strong volume. Enter only in a rising market. Exit no later
than 4/6.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked +0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
EFNT - Efficient Networks $180.06 +4.81 (+23.56)
Modems, modems, modems…internal and external… that's what EFNT
manufactures. EFNT is a world-wide supplier of digital subscriber
lines and customer premises equipment (CPE). EFNT markets its
products under the brand name SpeedStream. NT also publishes the
software for its products. In a related area, NT manufactures
networking products for use in LANs (local-area networks). Some of
the prestigious customers include Lucent Technologies, Covad
Communications, and Hong Kong Telecom. Frost Securities today
raised their target price for EFNT to $201. There are 200M shares
authorized, 53.1M shares outstanding and a float of 8.0M shares.
Insiders control 32% of the shares and institutions own 71% of the
float. Short interest is 7.1% of the float, or 571.0K shares.
Texas Instruments owns 8% of EFNT. The Company recently filed a
Notice of Special Meeting of Stockholders filed with the SEC. The
meeting will take place 4/12/00. The agenda does not include a
split, but the Board of Directors may be inspired to execute their
first split following the meeting, or with the April 18th
(estimated) earnings report. A new 52-week high was set today at
$180.06. Recent gains have the stock way ahead of moving average
support, so use recent open and closing points, as well as round
numbers for support and resistance. First support comes at
Thursday's open near $178, then $175 and $170. The 5-dma is near
$165. Resistance is at $185. Enter the play in a rising market,
and be aware that recent gains may cause wider intra-day swings.
Use stops, but set them wide enough to avoid being swung out.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $180.06
Changed since picked 0.00
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MER - Merrill Lynch $109.94 +5.00 (+5.13)
It's pretty easy to figure out why investors are anticipating a
huge quarter for MER. Huge volume plus huge market gains equals
huge commissions. Throw in a gaggle of successful IPO's and you
have a Company sitting on huge profits. Adding further to the
confidence that MER will have a blowout quarter is the fact that a
couple of the Company's competitors have already reported huge
numbers this week. First up was Bear Stearns which reported a 20%
increase in year over year net income. Next up was Lehman
Brothers with an awesome first quarter report that saw the Company
more than double their profits. After the close today, Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter announced a profit increase of 49%. MER
reports in the middle of April, giving traders plenty of time to
pick up shares of the stock for a pre-earnings run. The last time
MER split its stock was three years ago. The split was announced
when the stock was priced below $100. With the stock comfortably
above that psychologically important number now, a split
announcement appears to be right around the corner. Hopefully a
split will be announced before the earnings date, but if not, we
will still drop this play before earnings come out. MER tested
its 52-week high today and fell back. We fully expect the stock
to take out that high soon. Aggressive traders may wish to wait
for the stock to close above $112, confirming that MER has not hit
a double top. On a pullback, look to go long in the support area
between $102 (10 & 20-dma's right there) -$105. Otherwise, new
positions can be placed at current prices with a stop suggested at
$99.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked 0.00
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C - Citigroup, Inc. $61.69 +2.94 (+4.69)
That collective sigh of relief you heard on Tuesday came from
shareholders of financial companies. Citigroup is perhaps the
most diversified Financial-services Company in North America. The
Company owns everything from a major brokerage (very good) to
major insurance holdings (not so good). Either way, Citigroup is
a core holding of many mutual funds. It may seem odd, at first,
to consider a $60 stock for a split play. Last year, the Company
announced a 3:2 split in April when the stock was trading at $72.
We believe the relief rally in the shares of Citigroup will
continue, perhaps long enough to entice a split announcement
around the earnings date of April 18th. Perhaps in anticipation
of an economic recovery in Japan, Citigroup announced that they
will increase their equity stake in Nikko Securities from 9.5% to
20% through a convertible bond conversion. In another transaction
announced this week, Citigroup will purchase the remaining 15% of
Traveler's it does not already own. C has been able to regain all
of the share price that it lost leading up to the Fed meeting in
very quick fashion. Citigroup, sporting a market cap of around
$200 billion, is not a fast moving stock. Do not expect 10-point
moves on this one. Nevertheless, today's breakout was very
impressive and we see no reason why Citi cannot work its way up to
$70. You can pick up the stock along the way on small intraday
pullbacks. There is very good support at $58, an area to watch
for a stop if the stock starts pulling back. This level is
important because the 5-dma resides there. That moving average
has provided trendline support for the stock since early last
week. Look to exit in front of earnings.
Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
AXP - American Express $156.00 +8.25 (+10.69)
Financial stocks continue their "sell the news" rally after the
rate hike. There are several reasons why people are buying AXP.
First, the stock is still off of its highs, attracting value
dollars. AXP is a major component of the DOW and it participates
in most buy programs. In the past two weeks, AXP is gaining
recognition as a good play because the Company is actively
incorporating new technologies to improve many aspects of their
business. The market has responded positively to AXP's plans to
offer franchises to their Financial Advisors. AXP is the first
major player to offer this option and it hopes it will result in a
huge increase in the number of major Advisor's under its wing.
AXP also announced a new advertising campaign to air during the
Academy Awards. Our trailing stop strategy continues to work and
we suggest that you raise your stops once again to keep protecting
the large profits we have been able to achieve. We suggest the
logical placement for a stop would be $150, a psychological
support level. Of course, this is entirely dependent upon your
own risk profile. AXP closed right on its high today which is
bullish. The next resistance prices will be $159 followed by
$163.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +33.25
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CHINA - China.com $106.88 -2.59 (-5.13)
China.com continues to add to its portfolio. The company has made
strategic investments in three companies this week. On Thursday,
Web Connection, a wholly owned subsidiary of CHINA, acquired a
majority interest in Japanese e-business services firm, TKAI Inc.
The news could not rally the stock as shares of CHINA fell $2.59
on light volume. The stock has now spent a few days testing
support and it appears to have found a temporary bottom at current
levels. The Company has a General Meeting on April 28th when the
shareholders will be voting on the proposed 2:1 split. In the
near-term future, there is limited support at $105 (the 50-dma)
with stronger support at the $100 mark. Set stops under $100 as
protection. Resistance is the 10-dma at $111 and then $116. Open
new positions on a bounce off of $105 or a move above $111. Only
play on heavy volume in a rising market. Once the payable date is
announced, we will set an exit date, unless our stops our
triggered.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $110.00
Change since picked -3.13
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CMRC - Commerce One $205.00 -1.69 (-13.13)
Business to Business (B2B) investment fever continues to push
stock prices in this sector into new record territory. CMRC is
one of just a handful of companies who have been able to rapidly
grow out their business to meet the strong demand for e-commerce
solutions. Revenue estimates for this group are set to climb $7.3
trillion in 2004, from $145 billion in last year. These estimates
have caught the attention of investors who have pushed this group
of stocks to new heights. As for the week, CMRC remained in a
consolidation mode ($196.75-$225), closing down just slightly on
the day to finish at $205. A break out of this consolidation will
likely be triggered by a price move through initial resistance of
$225, although $220 (10-dma) could give the stock some trouble.
Further up, the 20-dma will offer resistance at $227. A break
above this level, which will signal our entry, would likely find
its next resistance level at $250. Our support level of $200 was
reinforced today as it proved to be the low. The $195 mark, which
is bolstered by the 50-dma ($195.40), presents an important final
level of support. Set stops below this level to prevent a possible
downward shift in the trend. Price bounces off these support
levels will also provide good entries. Close your positions a day
ahead of the payable date of 4/19, as our normal policy suggests.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52
Change since picked -17.52
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EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $171.00 +1.63 (+19.75)
Another big deal for EXDS. Wednesday, 3/22, the Company said it
was investing $637.5M in Mirror Image Inc., a unit of Xcelera.com
that specializes in Web site performance. Mirror Image is one of
a handful of companies that speeds up the delivery of Internet
content by caching (storing) copies of frequently requested
content closer to the net users. EXDS, a Silicon-Valley-based
internet-infrastructure stock, is the leader in hosting complex
Internet web sites. Ebay, MSN, Yahoo, Hotmail and CBS Sports are
just a few of the many premiere companies outsourcing their
website management to EXDS. Today, Lehman raised EXDS' price
target to $210 from $175, traders responded by pushing the stock
to an all-time high. EXDS had a trading range of 13.5 points (low
$169.125, high $179.625 on volume of 5.1M). Place trailing stops
just under support levels to protect profits. Resistance is the
high of $175. Support is light at $169, better just under $160 on
the 5-dma at $158. Use a bounce off any of the support levels or a
breakout above $175 on strong volume to start a new play. Remember
to exit before earnings (expected in late April). The split
payable date is 06/20/00. We may reenter the stock later for a
split run.
Picked on Mar 19th @$ 151.25
Change since picked $19.75
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $161.50 -2.44 (+13.00)
The inflows of cash into the relatively safe big techs slowed
today. Actually, money continued to flow into MSFT and CSCO, but
the large semiconductor companies took a breather today as INTC
and AMAT both finished down. Hopefully, this will not be a trend
because semiconductors have lead most of the previous rallies this
year. In our last update we where a bit worried that Micron's
earnings shortfall would hurt the sector. Even though MU actually
rallied, it is possible that the news created a mini-hangover for
the sector as we enter the earnings period. We do expect MOT to
report an excellent quarter on April 11th. As other semiconductor
and wireless companies begin reporting good results, we expect an
anticipatory rally into MOT's earnings date. We will be dropping
this play before the announcement. Technically, we have to watch
MOT very closely. The stock was able to establish and rally from
a base at $150. We do not like the fact that MOT could not rally
above yesterday's high during such a strong day for the overall
market. It is entirely possible that MOT is trying to rollover
and retest $150. The first indication that this may happen would
be if MOT trades below today's low of $160.88, although the 10-dma
offers some support just below that at $159. You may want to
protect yourself just below this price. On the upside, $170 and
$180 offer challenges above.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked +9.75
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $219.63 +1.44 (+19.75)
To stay ahead of the highly competitive cellular business, Nokia's
strategy is to provide new and better reasons to buy their
products. More positive news announcements have continued to send
shares running higher. The Company's location in Europe provides a
good opportunity for it to be chosen for business solutions by
many European countries. On Wednesday, the Company announced that
they had signed a deal with First Telecom to provide DSL access
across Europe. Senior VP of Europe Nokia Networks, Pekka
Vartiainen, stated, "Broadband networks and services are a key
step in the Internet revolution and this pan-European deal
underlines Nokia's strength as a world leader in fast Internet
access solutions." As for today, NOK continued its weeklong
rebound to close up 0.65% on the day. This 2-day run was able to
break our resistance level of $216 and now becomes support. If
prices continue to advance, look for the next level of resistance
to be found at the ascending channel line of $230, although $220
is proving to offer stiff resistance. A buy signal was triggered
as prices broke through $216 and will be triggered again if the
stock can break through $230 on good volume (3.4m or better). If
price retracements occur, then $216 will offer initial support.
Below this point, look for the stock to find support at $210,
where the 5 and 20-dma's reside ($210.40 and $210.19). Further
down, strong support exists at $200. Use price moves off support,
when accompanied by good volume, to signal potential plays. As
mentioned in our previous write-up, NOK announced a 4:1 stock
split payable on 4/7. Plan your strategy to exit ahead of the
payable date of 4/7, as per our normal policy.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -1.38
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NXTL - Nextel $159.06 +6.75 (+5.31)
Nextel is rebounding nicely along with many of the wireless
stocks. After two days of selling earlier in the week, the stock
has regained its momentum and is threatening its all-time high.
Volume has been light as many investors are still questioning the
strength of the latest tech rally. The stock is splitting 2:1 on
6/6 but earnings are coming up in April and should provide
additional upside. In the meantime, NXTL has light support at $156
with additional support at the 5-dma, currently at $151. Set stops
under $150 to lock in profits. Resistance is $160 and then $165,
just below the all-time high. Use a bounce off of $156 or a
breakout above $160 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm
market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions.
The payable date is over two months away but we may exit in front
of earnings in April.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked +10.44
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PHG - Koninklijke Philips Electronics $177.69 -4.69 (+2.63)
Flight to quality did not last very long as PHG, a big steady ship
in the stock market sea, has been left behind as some other big
names have garnered all of the attention. Despite the pullback
the past two days, we still have a 4:1 split to look forward to.
Hopefully the payable date will be announced around the
Shareholder's meeting on March 30th. On the news front, the
Company announced that they would begin licensing their patented
speech recognition technology to accelerate industry growth and
market acceptation of speech applications. More news releases
like this one may help the Company get the recognition for being a
cutting edge technology company that it deserves. $172 (50-dma)
is very important support and we would not hold onto the stock if
it were to violate this price. A bounce at $172 could provide a
very good entry point because it would indicate that the stock has
indeed established support there. If the stock starts moving up
again, look for resistance at $189 (20-dma). A break above that
price would be very encouraging and could point the way for a nice
split run.
Picked Mar 21st @ $185.00
Change since picked -7.31
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SFA - Scientific-Atlanta $140.50 +17.44 (+10.69)
After goofing off all week, we finally got a split run out of SFA.
Many thanks for today's monster run must go to Wit Soundview. The
analyst there saw fit to reiterate his Strong Buy rating and raise
the target price to $200 from $120. The analyst also raised EPS
estimates. Also adding to the interest is the overall good press
that next generation multi-functional cable boxes have been
getting. This is SFA's chief product. The payable date for the
split is Monday, so we want to get out of this position no later
than the close tomorrow. After hours trading remains strong in
SFA and we may be able to get a gap up opening tomorrow. If this
occurs, it could be an excellent time to take our profits. If
things really get going, look for a test of $150. If the stock
runs into profit taking early, we would recommend that you get out
of the way and take your profits.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $146.19
Change since picked -5.69
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $246.00 +3.38 (+28.44)
Broadcom is breaking out to new highs again. Shares of BRCM are
moving higher as momentum players come back to the tech sector.
The stock hit an all-time high on Thursday thanks to new coverage
from WR Hambrecht. They initiated coverage on BRCM with a 'Buy'
rating and set a $295 target. The stock traded as high as $253
before closing the day with a decent gain at $246. The
shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares at
their Annual Shareholder meeting on 4/27. Broadcom is also
announcing earnings in April and we are hoping for a split either
with earnings or at the Annual Meeting. Support has moved up to
$240 with stronger support at the 5-dma, now up to $230. Set stops
under $230 to lock in profits. Resistance is $250 and then $253.
Look for a bounce off of $240 or a breakout above $253 on heavy
volume to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector
momentum before starting new plays. Use resistance and support as
your trigger points as the earnings date is still a ways off.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +33.19
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CHKP - Check Point Software $219.00 +1.44 (-16.50)
Shares of the network security group hitting new 52-week highs
have been more of the norm than the exception. As the provider for
network security software and worldwide leader in securing the
Internet, CHKP stock has already experienced triple digit gains on
the year. Another factor pushing prices higher has been the
stronger than usual demand for products in the first quarter of
this year. This has mainly been attributed to customers focusing
more on security than software bugs, now that Y2K has come and
gone. As for the stock, it has remained relatively flat over the
last couple of days, accompanied by light volume. Increasing
volume combined with stock prices moving higher is generally a
good indication that the run will continue. We are looking at a
volume increase (1.5m or better) as an early indication for
further advances from its current level. If volume does come in
and prices begin to resume upward, then initial resistance is
likely at $231, where both the 10 & 20-dma'a now reside. Higher
up, the $250 mark would be the next barrier to break. We are
looking at the 5-dma, currently at $218, to offer some initial
support; further down more price and psychological support resides
at $200. We are looking for a strong break through resistance or a
solid bounce from support as a sign to open potential plays. The
next BofD or Shareholder's meeting may offer up the best
opportunity for a split announcement. We will keep you posted on
further developments.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $219.13
Change since picked -0.13
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EBAY - eBay $223.56 -9.06 (+4.63)
eBay traded at a new high for the first time since last April. The
stock was flying high Wednesday on news that the Company's German
subsidiary was going to start hosting used car auctions. Some of
Wednesday's gains were reversed on Thursday as there was sporadic
profit-taking in the Internet sector. The Company is expected to
announce earnings on 4/24 (First Call) and we are hoping for a
split to accompany the earnings release. They have enough shares
to split already, so they could announce a split at any time. As
for the stock, support is at $220, then at the 5-dma at $217. Set
stops under $210 (near the 10-dma) to limit losses. Resistance is
$232 with additional resistance at $240. Look for a bounce off of
$217 or a breakout above $232 to open new positions. Start new
plays on heavy volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in
front of the earnings.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked +4.63
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EMC - EMC Corporation $137.50 +3.00 (+9.69)
Introducing a continuos cycle of cutting edge storage-related
hardware and software, EMC packs a punch to rival products. The
rapidly growing market for enterprise data storage continues to
benefit EMC's dominance in this sector. Current estimates show
that EMC will grow its revenues by 25% in 2000, while earnings
should climb about 35%. Much of the Company's growth has been from
strong demand for Symmetrix, EMC's enterprise data storage
systems. As for the day, EMC finished off with another solid gain
of 3 points, to close up 2.23%. This close puts the price just
above the ascending trendline and gives us an initial signal that
the price breakout may be getting underway. Generally, a good
indication of a breakout starts with a price gap through the top
of the trendline, which is accompanied by good volume. We hope to
see this scenario develop over the next couple of days. Given this
does occur, the stock still needs to break through resistance of
$140 to give us a true indication that the uptrend will resume. As
for support levels, $137 represents light support, with heavier
support at $132, bolstered by a 5-dma of $133.58. Below these near
term levels, look to find support further down at $125, propped up
by a 20-dma of ($125.25). When the price bounces off these support
levels, accompanied by good volume, look to open new positions.
Look to the mid-April earnings report as a possible trigger for an
announcement. Look to exit before earnings, if not beforehand.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked +2.38
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $147.25 +1.06 (+8.50)
As a global leader of innovative computing and imaging solutions
for business and home, HWP has built a reputation for delivering
top quality products. Its business is composed of three major
divisions: Computing systems; IT (information technology)
services; and imaging and printing solutions. The imaging and
printing division has contributed the most to the Company's
growth, comprising 44% of revenues for fiscal year 1999.
Continuing its weeklong rebound, today the stock was able to add
on $3.75 points from its opening price and close at $147.25. This
closing price was significant, as it is above our near term
resistance level of $144. A close above this level provides us
with an opportunity to open positions. However, be mindful that
more volume (3.6. or better) will likely need to follow in order
for prices to continue their advance. Given a scenario like this
does unfold, expect to see some resistance at the buck fifty mark
(52-week high range). New support will be found at old resistance
of $144, bolstered by a 5-dma of $143.66. Just below this point,
heavier support should be found at $140, where the 20-dma
($139.65) resides. New entries can be initiated when the price
retraces to support and then bounces hard. However, we remain
bullish on HWP and feel it has good potential to advance over the
next few days. A split may be announced with the mid-May earnings,
if not sooner.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +14.25
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INTC - Intel Corporation $142.63 -1.44 (+12.75)
With more than 70 million people in the U.S. now utilizing the
Internet in the office or at home, INTC provides the processing
power to help keep it going. Intel's ability to recognize new
areas for growth have allowed them to avoid the mixed performances
of many of the other semiconductor companies. Intel remains poised
for future profits, due in part to its ability to penetrate
higher-end markets. Two of the products that fall into this
higher-end category are its current Xeon processor, and Itanium,
which is to be released later this year. These new product
offerings have helped to promote investor interest in the stock
and have pushed it to new 52-week highs. Thursday's price action
for the stock showed light consolidation as the price was able to
maintain its major gap from Tuesday's close of $138. Thus far, the
chart shows no signs of weakness, other than a large price
increase. From this, we are lead to believe that for now INTC will
likely remain strong. If prices do continue on their present
course, we expect the next level of resistance to be found at the
buck fifty mark. At its present level, INTC should encounter
support at $140 (previously resistance). Just below this level,
the 5-dma ($137.77) is continuing to act as trendline support for
the current run-up. Look for strong price reversals from support
to resume the upward trend and provide potential entries. Look to
the upcoming earnings report for a possible split announcement.
Remember to exit the stock in front of earnings on 4/18, unless
the announcement comes prior.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +12.75
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MCRL - Micrel $105.75 +0.75 (-0.19)
Micrel has been consolidating all week. The stock is basically
unchanged in the past 5 sessions. Volume has been average, as
there has been no big news to drive the stock in either direction.
Not much happening here. At least it is not tanking. The Company
will announce earnings in April and we are looking for a split
announcement to come out with the earnings release. Until then,
support remains steady at $100, with stronger support at $98. Set
stops under $98 to limit losses. Resistance is $109 and then $116.
Open new positions on a bounce off of $100 or a breakout above
$109 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before starting new plays. Exit in front earnings unless
they announce a split. If we get a split announcement before the
earnings release, exit in the next trading session.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked -0.19
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PPRO - PurchasePro.com $123.44 +1.41 (-28.31)
The PPRO deal with Web giant AOL announced Monday is likely to
make PPRO a B2B Goliath. PPRO is a leading provider of Internet
B2B electronic services. Before the AOL announcement, PPRO had
only about 25,000 members in its various marketplaces; AOL has 3M
business customers. More good news, today Las Vegas-based PPRO
announced that it expects 1st quarter results (quarter ending
3/31/200) to exceed expectations. Current expectations are for a
net loss of 28 cents a share. PPRO has more than $140M in cash
and no long-term debt in addition to healthy reported 4th quarter
revenues of $2.7M. The trading range today was 19.5 points (high
of $135.50 and low of $116 on volume of 2.4M). The stock looks
like it is consolidating in the $120-$140 range in preparation to
move up. The daily volume has been increasing since February, a
bullish sign. Support is nearby at $120. Set stops under 113, the
50-dma to limit losses. First resistance comes at $130, then more
firmly at $140. Use a bounce off any of the support levels or a
breakout above resistance on strong volume to start a new play.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.75
Changed since picked -28.31
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RIMM - Research In Motion Limited $133.88 -0.13 (+1.00)
Our patience has been rewarded, as RIMM has been able to climb
back to our original purchase levels. Helping RIMM today was the
announcement of a strategic partnership with Open Text
(NASDAQ:OTEX). OTEX is the leading provider of collaborative
intranet, extranet and e-business applications. The companies are
planning on combining the features of OTEC's Livelink and RIMM's
BlackBerry products in the hopes that mobile Livelink users will
be able to collaborate within their organizations and throughout
their supply chains. We are still looking for a B of D meeting or
Shareholder meeting announcement to give us a little more
encouragement that a split is pending. Yesterday was great but
today was a little disappointing as RIMM failed to take out
yesterday's high. Most of the interest in the NASDAQ occurred in
the really big names. There was not enough buying today to get
RIMM to break out of its small downward channel. We would not add
new positions until the stock breaks above $135.75. To be on the
safe side, do not let RIMM drop too far below $129 support before
getting out. If sentiment changes, the stock could easily
pullback to the $110's, the bottom end of its current trading
range.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $139.06
Change since picked -5.19
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SNDK - SanDisk $127.88 -1.44 (+10.88)
SanDisk is testing the highs and lows of its current trading
range. On Thursday, shares of SNDK were as high as $133.63 and as
low as $125.06 on average volume. The stock is basing here as
investors search for stronger momentum in this volatile market.
The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 and we are
hoping for a split to come out with earnings. Until then, SDNK has
light support at 5-dma ($124) with strong support at $120. Set
stops under $120 to limit losses. Resistance is $133 and then
$140. Use a bounce off of $125 or a move above $133 on heavy
volume to start new plays. Confirm sector momentum and market
sentiment before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of
earnings.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00
Change since picked -2.13
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YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $191.00 -6.19 (+19.87)
Yesterday, it looked as if excitement in the shares of Yahoo! had
been renewed as the stock broke above the always psychologically
important $200 level. So what happened? The NASDAQ staged a huge
advance today and Yahoo! was up most of the day only to fall
sharply in the last half an hour to essentially an unchanged level
for the past two days. Continuing its foray into e-commerce and
payment solutions, Yahoo! today announced the acquisition of
Arthas.com, a leading provider of Web-based person-to-person
electronic payment services. Yesterday it was announced that
Yahoo! and Pepsi have teamed up in a co-branded marketing
campaign. Yahoo! had an inside day today, staying within
yesterday's trading range. Look for a breakout to either side of
today's range resulting in a double-digit move. The jury is still
out as to whether Yahoo! is on the verge of moving towards testing
the old highs. Yesterday looked very promising while today was a
bit discouraging. Let's call it a push for the first two days of
this play. If the stock does breakdown, set a stop under support
at $180. Otherwise, expect resistance back up at $200 and then
$225.
Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked -0.75
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
None today.
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
CMOS - Credence Systems Corp $136.56 +5.06 (+16.43)
Like clockwork, yesterday's B of D meeting resulted in an after
the close 2:1 split announcement (released this morning). A gap
up with a nice follow through provided us with plenty of sell-the-
news opportunities to take a profit. We hope you received a split
alert or were able to check out the web site to get the news. We
always drop split candidates after an announcement. Generally the
following day on those announced after the market and by markets
close for those announced prior to the market open, as was the
case with this one. In a few days, we will take a look at CMOS
again and see if it is a candidate for a split run. The split
will be payable May 17th, so there is plenty of time.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $121.38
Profit/Loss +15.19 (13%)
Best Profit +26.63 (22%)
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