NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
NXTL - Nextel $148.63 +7.00 (-5.13)
Nextel provides digital and wireless communications services
throughout the United States. The Company's digital network is one
of the largest integrated wireless communications systems in the
U.S. The Company has major specialized mobile radio spectrum
holdings in all of the top 50 metropolitan areas in the country.
This stock has been hot along with just about every other wireless
stock. Shares of NXTL hit an all-time high of $165.88 on 3/10, but
the stock has fallen since then. It has now spent some time
consolidating and the stock is starting to move again. The Board
of Directors announced a 2:1 stock split on 2/22 to be paid in the
form of a stock dividend on 6/6. As for the stock, there is light
support at $144 with stronger support at $140. Resistance is at
$153 and then $160. Look for a bounce off of $144 or a breakout
above $153 on heavy volume to open new positions. Confirm market
sentiment and sector momentum before starting new plays. The
payable date is a long way off, so set trailing stops to protect
profits.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked +0.00
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PHG - Koninklijke Philips Electronics $185.00 +6.31 (+9.93)
Think of Philips as part GE and part TXN. This huge European
conglomerate has seven distinct divisions, each of which help to
give shareholders a sense of confidence in their holdings. PHG is
trading at roughly just over two times revenues and it is exactly
the kind of stock people are looking to buy when things start to
get a little scary in the overall market. To help the interest,
the Company has announced that it will split its shares 4:1. The
Company will be hosting a Shareholder's meeting on March 30th. We
believe that a vote will be taken at that time to increase the
number of authorized shares in order to enact the split. The
actual payable date for the split should also be released at about
the same time. Of possible interest to momentum traders, PHG
unveiled a unique new semiconductor design for the Sea-of-IP
design methodology. These chips should become the brains of the
next generation of consumer electronics products such as set-top-
boxes, home networking and 3G mobile phones. Not only is PHG a
leader in the semiconductor field but it is also a big player in
the voice recognition field as well as networking and fiber
optics. Bottom line is that Philips is more than just a light
bulb and TV manufacturer. PHG has been in a steady uptrend since
the beginning of the year, with three distinct pullbacks within
the trend. The most recent pullback saw the stock find support at
$171 and subsequently turn up. A move above minor resistance at
$185 would be confirmation that PHG is attempting a move higher.
If history is any guide, a new high could be made in 2-3 weeks,
just in time for a split run after the shareholder's meeting. We
would set stops just below $170 to protect against any further
correcting of the stock. We will update as to the payable date
when that information becomes available.
Change since picked 0.00
Picked on Mar 21st @ $185.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
CMOS - Credence Systems Corp $121.38 +9.88 (+1.26)
A very strong close today, with the possibility of a breakout
follow through tomorrow, has led us to add CMOS as a play.
Semiconductor Tools and Equipment stocks are poised to have a
record year due to unprecedented demand for semiconductors
generally. An increase in demand for the most complex chips only
benefits the equipment stocks that much more because more complex
chips require more sophisticated tools to manufacture them. High-
end tools have higher margins for companies like CMOS. We sense a
split announcement coming because there is a meeting scheduled for
tomorrow to vote to increase the number of authorized shares. The
Company's last split was in 1995. Helping matters today was the
announcement of an initiation of coverage of CMOS from ABN AMRO.
The research firm placed a buy rating on CMOS with a share price
target of $160. Last week, Credit Suisse First Boston raised
their target to $170. Despite the good news, CMOS has been a bit
choppy of late and has not been immune to all of the recent
selling in the NASDAQ. However, CMOS has been able to establish a
nice basing trading range between $111-$122. By closing on the
high end of the range today, we have confidence that a nice move
may occur for CMOS once it crosses $125, the support of the old
trading range, now resistance, especially if we get a split
announcement. We would place stops at $109, just below support.
It seems like a long way down, but in today's trading ranges it
would not take much. Look to exit in the trading session
following an announcement, if not beforehand.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $121.38
Change since picked 0.00
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EMC - EMC Corporation $135.13 +3.13 (+6.38)
As computer related equipment and software are requiring greater
storage capacities to run products, EMC is benefiting by providing
a wide range of storage-related hardware and software. EMC first
came on the scene in 1991, when it began providing storage
solutions to mainframe computers. The Company's product,
Symmetrix, was the very first disk storage system that combined
software with disk drives. EMC has since become the leader in
supplying enterprise storage systems. The demand for these storage
systems, which currently store data from all major computer
platforms, has allowed EMC to lead this group. The strong demand
for these products has sent stock prices trending higher.
Currently, the shares are trading above the price range of
previous splits. Combine this with the fact that the Company has
1.02 billion shares outstanding with 3 billion authorized, and we
could make a good case that a near-term stock split is probable.
In regard to the chart, the stock continued a 5-day run-up to
close at a new 52-week high of $135.13. This price level puts the
stock right on the upper trendline of an ascending triangle. A
break above this level (current price) will set the stage for the
next run and represents a potential entry. Remember, a close above
this area would present a true signal for the breakout. More
resistance will likely be found at $140. As for support, the
initial level is found at the $132 mark. Further down, stronger
support is at $125, also the location of the 5-dma ($126.78).
Potential plays may be present along support areas if the stock
retraces to these levels and bounces upward with increasing
volume. Look for a possible split announcement with the upcoming
earnings report in mid-April. We will plan to exit in front of
earning, if not beforehand.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked 0.00
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SNDK - SanDisk $130.00 +13.00 (+13.00)
SanDisk is a leading supplier of non-volatile storage devices. The
Company's flash memory storage solution, known as system flash,
addresses the needs of many emerging applications in the consumer
electronics and industrial/communications markets. Its products
are used in digital cameras and other consumer electronics devices
such as smart phones, personal digital assistants (PDA) and MP3
portable music players. The stock took off last year, as the
implications of non-volatile storage solutions for all types of
handheld devices became more apparent. The stock hit its high of
$169.63 just one week ago. In one short week, SNDK has given back
almost 40 points. The stock was actually much lower and it has
recently started to rebound as more and more analysts initiate
coverage. Some have even called SNDK the next Intel (INTC). The
Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/19 and we are
looking for a split announcement to come out with earnings. They
currently have enough shares for a 3:2 split but the Annual
Shareholder Meeting is right around the corner and they could
easily declare a 2:1 split pending shareholder approval. The stock
has support at the 15-dma at $125 and then the 5-dma at $119.
Resistance is $140 with heavy resistance at the $150 mark. Look
for a bounce off of $125 or a move above $140 to open new
positions. Only play on strong volume in a rising market. Plan to
exit in front of earnings.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00
Change since picked +0.00
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YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $191.75 +19.73 (+20.62)
Yahoo! is certainly a household name, well at least in
computerized households, and it is certainly recognized as the
leader in numerous Internet categories. It is perhaps most
important to note that the Company is actually profitable. It may
be only a few pennies per share but when the new kids on the
block, like ARBA, MUSE, INSP and especially MSTR, are increasingly
coming under suspicion as to whether they will ever be profitable,
traders want to go back into something they know and have already
fallen in love with. Dare we say that Yahoo! is becoming
synonymous with Microsoft or Cisco when money is looking for a
comfy place to go? Well, Yahoo! might not quite be there yet, but
it is getting close. Even though the Company enjoyed its 4th
split in four years last month, the stock is certainly at
splittable price levels again. In fact, shareholders will be
voting to increase the number of authorized shares to 5 billion
from 900 million at the Annual Meeting on May 12th. Earnings will
be coming out around April 11th (we will confirm the exact date as
we approach it) and that would be an excellent time to announce a
split. Hopefully they will announce a split before the earnings
because we will not hold the stock through the earnings report.
If a split is announced after the earnings and the stock still
looks strong technically, then we may reenter a play in order to
attempt to catch a split run. Part of today's rally can be
attributed to the announcement that Yahoo! will provide messaging
and e-mail capabilities for the Palm product. Yesterday, Yahoo!,
continuing its pattern of never missing a hot segment, introduced
Yahoo! B2B Marketplace, a one stop business-to-business directory
offering a collection of equipment, inventory and product listings
from many of the Web's leading B2B commerce sites. After peaking
on the first day of the year, YHOO has been stuck in a trading
range roughly between $150 and $190. Today, the stock took the
first step of breaking out of the range to the upside. With
earnings coming up, a nice run to the old high of $250 is
certainly not out of the question. If you have never traded YHOO
before, be warned, this stock is extremely volatile and 30 point
daily moves are not that uncommon. Please keep that in mind when
determining how much capital to commit to this play. In terms of
support, it's light at $190, decent at $180 and very strong
between $170-$175, with the 5, 10, 20 and 50-dma'a all bolstering
that range. A close over $200 offers our first upside test.
Picked on Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
AXP - American Express $145.88 +3.88 (+2.26)
AXP continues to suck up a lot of the cash exiting "New Economy"
stocks. A little weakness yesterday for this financial concern
was very understandable ahead of today's FOMC meeting. The relief
rally that ensued after the Fed raised a quarter of a point was
equally understandable. Financial stocks have been in a very
predictable pattern of dropping before Fed meetings and rallying
after the rate hikes. This is a classic sell the news pattern.
For those of you who followed our $140 stop recommendation,
congratulations on locking in profits and sticking to a sound
trading plan. If you are still in the stock, you can place a stop
just below today's low of $138.63. AXP had a very volatile day
and could be topping out soon for the short term. If you do try
and pick it up, shoot for an entry point around today's close down
to the low $140's. Despite trading above $147 today, this price
is still good short-term resistance for traders. A close above
that price and AXP should find some resistance in the low $150's.
We will be exiting this position before the May 10th split date.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +23.13
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CHINA - China.com $102.00 -5.38 (-10.00)
China.com is having a tough week. The stock slid Monday as did
many Internet portal issues. A Barron's article spooked Internet
stock investors and shares of CHINA could not escape the selling.
The selling continued on Tuesday as the stock closed below its 50-
dma on average volume. This is not a great sign going forward.
There is a glimmer of hope in the fact that CHINA did manage to
rally towards the end of the day and the stock closed above the
$100 mark. The Company has scheduled a General Meeting on April
28th when shareholders will be voting on the proposed 2:1 split.
As for Thursday's trading, there is light support at $100 with
stronger support at $94. Set hard stops at $94 to prevent further
losses. Resistance is the 5-dma at $107 and then the 10-dma at
$116. Look for a bounce off of $100 or a move above $107 on heavy
volume, to start new plays. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before opening new positions. The payable date has not
yet been announced.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $110.00
Change since picked -8.00
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CMRC - Commerce One $209.00 +10.94 (-9.12)
The Internet is well on its way to creating revolutionary gateways
in which business can be conducted. CMRC provides Internet trading
communities for businesses to link buyers and suppliers.
Currently, the stock has retraced well off from its recent highs
and may be getting ready for another advance. Today's price action
was volatile to say the least. The first hour of trading saw
prices plummet to an intra-day low of $180.63, breaking all
previous support levels. Throughout the rest of the day, CMRC
displayed an amazing recovery, gaining $28.37 points from the
daily low to close at $209. A close above our near-term resistance
level of $225 still remains the first signal of a price breakout.
Higher up, we would expect more resistance to be found at $250.
However, if more selling continues, then we expect $200 to offer
initial support. Below that level, the stock should gain light
support at the 50-dma ($194.78) and further down at today's low
($180.63). Price moves through resistance or bounces off support
will provide our entries. Plan your exit one day in advance of the
4/19 payable date, as per our normal strategy.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52
Change since picked -13.52
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EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $155.25 +12.75 (+4.00)
EXDS, a Silicon-Valley-based Internet infrastructure stock, is the
leader in hosting complex Internet web sites. Ebay, MSN, Hotmail
and CBS Sports are just a few of the many premiere companies
outsourcing their website management to EXDS. It has been a
steady climb up on the charts since its IPO on 3/98 at $15.
Monday, Banc of America initiated coverage with a 'buy' rating and
a $278 price target. Today, analysts at Robertson Stephens
reiterated their 'buy' rating on EXDS with a $245 price target.
Today's range was 21 points, trading from a low of $134.875 to a
high of $155.875. A strong close finished near the high of the
day. Looking forward, resistance is at light at $155, then $160
and the high of $175. Support comes in on the 10-dma at $152.88,
then $150, then $140. Use a bounce off any of the support levels
or a breakout above resistance on strong volume to start a new
play. Put trailing stops under support to protect profits. Our
stop is the 50-dma at $132. Earnings are expected out in late
April before the split payable date of 06/20/00. We shall exit
before the earnings. We may reenter the stock later for a split
run.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $ 151.25
Change since picked +4.00
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $158.94 +4.81 (+9.31)
Motorola is like a thick fleecy blanket on a cold winter's night,
(Hey it was snowing in Denver last night!), for traders, as
familiar names with predictable growth rates and strong market
leaderships are collecting all of the cash. Motorola clearly
qualifies as a "safe" haven on all fronts. Purchases yesterday at
the open have been rewarded with decent gains, including a break
above resistance of $160, only to pull back. Be very careful of
MOT tomorrow. Micron Technologies (NYSE:MU) just came out with
very disappointing earnings after the close. The announcement
could have a negative effect on other major semiconductor
companies. On the plus side, MOT has teamed up with Nokia to
begin the standardization process for 1XTREME technology which
should allow for real time voice, data and multimedia services on
existing cdma2000 networks allowing users to browse the Internet
from a personal computer or access e-mail wirelessly. If MOT can
hold support at $149, then we feel we will be relatively safe and
we can hang in there for what will hopefully be a continued climb
back to test the old highs. Look for some resistance at $165. We
will be exiting this play before the earnings announcement on
April 18th.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked +7.19
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $211.50 +9.50 (+10.75)
The giant of cellular systems and equipment is back on the rise.
Tuesday night, NOK shareholders are meeting in Helsinki to approve
the 4:1 split and set a payable date. Shares of NOK have rallied
this week due to the upcoming meeting and a positive news release.
Tuesday, Nokia and Motorola announced that they would partner a
process to standardize '1EXTREME' technology, a new standard for
voice and data speed transmissions. Nokia's vice president of
System Research and Standardization, Heikki Ahava,
stated,"1EXTREME is a significant technology step in increasing
data rates and opening up potential for new mobile multimedia
services…". The service will also enable users to access the
Internet from their computer or access email while 'on the go'.
The announcement, which helped to raise shares by $10.25 points,
also caused the stock to break out of last weeks' consolidation.
Today's breakout also came with good volume (3.9m), which is
further indication that the stock may continue its rise. With a
breakout to higher prices, resistance may be found at $216 and
further up at the ascending channel line at about $230. Use price
moves through resistance to signal potential entries. Be familiar
with support levels at $200 and $190, as they may represent
potential buy opportunities if prices bounce off these levels. The
50-dma of $195.61, rests in the middle of these two support areas
and may provide strength to each level. Thus far, Nokia has yet to
declare a payable date, so use support and resistance determine
when to buy and sell.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -9.50
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SFA - Scientific-Atlanta $124.00 -1.69 (-5.81)
A somewhat mediocre start to the week for this Internet/Cable
play. That said, no real damage was done and SFA does have an
excellent chance to participate in this rally. It certainly helps
that it is a NYSE tech stock and not one of the secondary issues
on the NASDAQ. Who knows, maybe SFA is a little weak due to the
Iridium fallout. After all, SFA is a huge satellite networks
provider. As far as we know, there are not any plans for any of
SFA's satellites to be shut down and trashed into the atmosphere.
We still expect SFA to stage a split run into the March 27th; 2:1
split payable date. Just a reminder, we will be getting out of
this position by the close of Friday, which is the last
opportunity to get out before the split. Our recommendation to
initiate new positions on moves above $132, worked only briefly as
the stock was pushed back into the $115-$132 range. Today's low
of $113.75 did violate the bottom end of the range, but the
subsequent rally gives us hope that support has been firmly
established in the mid $110's. If the stock can gap and stay
above $127, then the prospects of a split rally into the $130's is
entirely possible. We would play this one pretty tight with a
trailing stop at $130, (assuming the stock gets above that level)
or placing a stop at $117 if the stock does not cross $130. We do
not want to stick around for another test in the low $110's.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $146.19
Change since picked -22.19
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM - Broadcom $228.00 +15.63 (-4.37)
Broadcom held up relatively well this week considering the action
in the broader market. On Tuesday, the stock rallied from an
intra-day low of $194 to a high of $229 on heavy volume. Shares of
BRCM closed just $1 off of its high, which suggests follow through
strength. Friday, the Company filed its preliminary proxy
statement for its Annual Shareholder Meeting. The shareholders
will be voting on an increase in authorized shares. Broadcom will
also announce earnings in April and we are hoping for a split
either with earnings or at the Annual Meeting. Support is now the
10-dma at $220 with stronger support at $212. Set stops under $212
to limit losses. If you are an active trader, use a $220 stop and
plan to re-enter on a bounce off of lower support levels.
Resistance is $236 and then $240. Open new positions on a bounce
off of $220 or a strong move above $236 on heavy volume. Start new
plays only in a rising market. Depending on the timing of the
earnings release in relation to the 4/27 Annual Meeting, we will
exit either in front of earnings or shortly after their Annual
Meeting.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +15.19
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CHKP - Check Point Software $223.50 +25.19 (-12.00)
As the Internet continues its growth to infinite limits, so too
the demand for Internet security grows. Check Point offers its
customers secure, reliable and user friendly communications over
any Internet network. Demand has been steady for these services
and the company's earnings are starting to show it. With revenues
expected to increase by 45% this year, the company's bottom line
will grow an estimated 35% this year. Tuesday, the stock
rebounded nicely from Monday's $32.50 decline to close at $223.50,
up 12.9% on the day. Volume was heavy off the bounce from the
$200 support level and the stock moved easily through the 30-dma
of $211.35. If today marks an upward move, look for the price to
find its first level of resistance at $240, reinforced by a 20-dma
($228.84). Next resistance is the psychologically important $250
level. A strong break and advance from this level would generate
a buy signal, which would likely see more resistance at $270 if
the stock nears its all-time high range. Support for the stock
remains fairly strong at $200, and further down at $175 (50-dma).
Watch these support areas for potential entries when quick bounces
are followed by good volume. A split announcement may come at the
next BoD or Shareholder's meeting; we will keep you updated.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $219.13
Change since picked +4.38
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EBAY - eBay $214.50 +18.38 (-4.44)
Shares of EBAY tumbled on Monday as the bearish Barron's article
worked its magic on the entire Internet sector. The stock closed
on the 10-dma on light volume. Most of the losses were reversed on
Tuesday after Greenspan & Co. announced the rate hike. The stock
was as low as $190 intra-day. The Company is scheduled to announce
earnings on 4/24 (First Call) and we are looking for a split to
come out with the earnings release. However, they already have
enough shares to split, so an announcement could come at any time.
For now, the stock has support at the 5-dma ($207) and then the
10-dma at $202. Set hard stops under $189 as protection.
Resistance has come down to $220 with heavier resistance at $225.
Use a bounce off of $210 or a breakout above $225 on strong volume
to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum
before opening new positions. Exit in front of the earnings
release.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked -4.44
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $141.88 -2.13 (+3.07)
As computer and software components continue to adapt to new
levels of technological performance, Hewlett-Packard is nicely
positioned to take advantage of this growth. As a top designer and
developer of electronic products and components, HWP is expected
to grow its revenues by 20% this year, a 5% increase over previous
quarters. Much of this growth will likely come from anticipated
increases in server sales, as new product offerings are released.
These new product offerings have bolstered investor interest in
the stock and have pushed it to 52-week highs. This week, the
stock continued to show some strength from its earlier re-bound
last week. Though the NASDAQ traded up over 100 points today, HWP
remained traded lower. This should not necessarily be implied as a
negative indication of future moves. First, the stock was able to
hold support at $140, which is currently sustained by a 10-dma of
$141.58. Next, the volume stayed relatively light when compared to
breakout volume (3.6m vs. 6.0m). Given a closer look, we feel that
prices may be taking a short rest before the next run. For this
run, the stock must first break near-term resistance of $144, from
there the stock should run to resistance at the buck fifty mark
(near 52-week highs of $151.88). As mentioned, new support is at
$140, which is followed by the 30-dma ($133.92) and $131 support
levels. Look for potential entries with good bounces off support,
when followed by better than average volume. A split may be
announced prior to mid-may earnings, if not earlier.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +8.88
| |
INTC - Intel Corporation $138.44 +3.44 (+8.56)
Designing and producing top caliber microprocessors has been the
measure of Intel's tenure in this industry. Over the last two
decades, the Intel brand has been recognized along side the
personal computer revolution. As part of its leading position in
the industry, INTC has maintained a steady flow of acquisitions to
spur state of the art technologies. One such acquisition was
announced today. INTC has agreed to buy Basis Communications for
$450m. The deal will allow INTC to focus more on Internet and
corporate network router solutions. Intel investors have responded
expediently to the company's aggressive growth initiatives, which
have kept shares climbing to new 52-week highs. This week was
really no different than the last 2 months for Intel's stock, more
all-time highs. The stock finished the day with a 2.22% increase.
As the stock continues its rise into record territory, it will
conceivably encounter light resistance at $140, and more at the
buck fifty mark. We are not saying sell at these levels, but
prices may find some degree of trepidation (although INTC did last
announce a split while trading at $137). The 5-dma ($129.71) has
continued to act as good trendline support for the run and
potential entry if prices retrace intra-day. If prices fall
through the 5-dma, strong support should lie at the $120 level,
bolstered by the 20-dma of $119.36. Look to open new positions
when hard bounces occur off these support levels. Although a price
retracement to these levels can occur, we believe that strong
volume in the current trend suggests prices are likely to advance.
A split announcement may occur on the upcoming earnings report on
April 18th. Look to exit before earnings are reported, unless an
announcement comes during the interim.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +8.56
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MCRL - Micrel $102.66 -2.59 (-3.28)
Micrel held its ground as the rest of the NASDAQ broke down on
Monday. The stock hit an intra-day high of $118.13 before
reversing direction and closing down slightly. Shares of MCRL
continued to fall on Tuesday, dipping under $100 support on strong
volume. The stock made a bit of a comeback late in the day as the
broader market rebounded. In the news, the Company filed its
preliminary proxy on Monday, setting a date of 5/25 for its Annual
Shareholder Meeting. The shareholders will vote on an increase in
authorized shares. The Company already has enough shares to split
and the vote for an additional increase in authorized shares leads
us to believe that a split is coming very soon. Support is holding
at $100, with stronger support at the 50-dma ($90). Set stops
under $90 to limit losses. Resistance is $105 and then $116. Use a
bounce off of $100 or a breakout above $116 to open new positions.
Only play on strong volume in rising market. Exit before earnings
unless they announce a split. If we get a pre-earnings split
announcement, we recommend exiting in the following trading
session.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked -3.28
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PPRO - PurchasePro.com $120.00 -9.25 (-31.75)
The B2B e-commerce market is expected to grow from $43 billion in
1998 to $1.3 trillion by 2003, according Forrester Research.
PPRO, located in Las Vegas, is establishing itself as a leading
player in the Internet B2B services arena. PPRO's e-
commerce solution consists of public and private communities ("e-
marketplaces") where businesses can buy and sell a wide range of
products and services over the Internet in an efficient,
competitive and cost-effective manner. Monday, PPRO and AOL
announced that they are doing a B2B venture to enable AOL
customers to conduct business-to-business transactions via AOL.
Analysts at Robertson Stephens liked the news and reiterated their
'buy' rating Tuesday. Last Friday, PPRO filed a PreDEF-14A with
the SEC, calling for a Special Shareholders' meeting to approve an
increase in the number of authorized shares from 40M to 190M. The
date for the meeting is not set. The request for an increase in
shares indicates that a split announcement is in the works.
Despite all the positive news, Monday's opening price of $161.25
could not hold in the face of the sliding NASDAQ market. By
Tuesday, PPRO was back near the old support levels, but we think
this is a good entry level. During much of the previous month,
support at $120 has held fairly consistently. Below that, the 50-
dma is at $112.50 and the 100-dma is at $104. The first
resistance level comes at $140, then $150. Set stops under $112
(the 50-dma) to limit losses. Use a bounce off any of the support
levels or a breakout above resistance on strong volume to start a
new play. Unless the split announcement date is the same as the
earnings date, we shall exit the play the day following the split
announcement.
Picked on Mar 17th @ $151.75
Changed since picked -31.75
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RIMM - Research In Motion Limited $123.06 -6.69 (-9.81)
Fear has created a run on all of the secondary technology issues
regardless of their potential. Look at the NASDAQ this week. The
strongest stocks were mostly the familiar super cap stocks of the
past. INTC, CSCO, MSFT etc. RIMM is not alone in being down in
share price despite the incredible reversal in the overall NASDAQ
market today. This is not a good trend for stocks like RIMM, and
it will have to change very quickly if we are going to be able to
keep holding this play. We recommend placing a stop at $116,
which would help insulate us against any major losses. It is not
all doom and gloom and relative strength can change on a dime in
this era of electronic trading. There has been plenty of good
news for the Company and we really like their industry group, but
good traders never fight the trend. Of course, a split
announcement certainly would not hurt. Therefore, we will
continue to monitor the wires for any pending B of D meetings and
we will stay with RIMM as long as it can prove that it is building
support right here between $116-$125. One encouraging technical
sign was RIMM's ability to stay above the two downward spikes of
last week during today's downward spike.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $139.06
Change since picked -16.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS
CSCO - Cisco Systems $140.86 +6.73 (+5.85)
We're happy that CSCO was able to close at an all-time high a day
ahead of the payable date, just as we close out our position. As
mentioned in our original write-up, the price target was in place
with a close above the $140 resistance level. Though this scenario
did not unfold until today, good buying opportunities still were
offered throughout the play with entries off support. By and large
this strategy produced good results in a highly volatile market.
We remain optimistic with CSCO, and will update you on future
plays.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $137.44
Profit/Loss = +3.42 (+2%)
Best Profit = +4.44 (+3%)
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DISH - EchoStar Communications Corp. $120.13 -0.13 (-0.94)
The first week of our DISH pick proved how quickly profits can be
made in this market. After breaking our original resistance level
of $120, the stock ran to a high of $144.50 during the following
three days. Although this run was short lived, it still provided a
good opportunity to take profits. The following seven days that
were left in our play saw DISH consolidate back to it original
support level of $120 (previously resistance). The stock will
likely remain a good play for future runs; we'll be monitoring it
for a possible candidate pick if the momentum continues.
Picked on Mar 7th @ $121.50
Profit/Loss = -1.38 (-1%)
Best Profit = 23.00 (+19%)
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ENGA - Engage Technologies $104.00 -9.00 (-26.00)
Engage Technologies has not been able to rally. This stock suffers
when the momentum turns sour. The recent flight to value has not
helped the situation either. The stock was down big on Tuesday,
blowing through any kind of support. This is why we are dropping
ENGA tonight. Many times, it is better to cut your losses instead
of hoping for a rebound. If you didn't get stopped out yet, plan
to exit on strength tomorrow. Place a hard stop at $102 as
additional protection.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $126.00
Profit/Loss = -22.00 (-17%)
Best Profit = +18.50 (+10%)
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HAUP - Hauppauge Digital $69.00 0.00 (-3.25)
Hauppauge Digital has been dogging it into the 2:1 split on 3/24.
We have not seen any signs of strength as we are now just 3 days
away from the payable date. With such a short time left on this
play, combined with the recent market volatility, we are dropping
HAUP tonight. Place stops under $68 and use any strength on
Wednesday to close positions.
Picked on Mar 14th @ $77.00
Profit/Loss = -8.00 (-10%)
Best Profit = +5.00 (+6%)
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LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $104.63 -0.44 (-15.19)
This play began with so much promise, only to collapse with a
thud. The trend is clearly to dump "New Economy" stocks in the
past week and buy "Old Economy" stocks. Until this trend changes,
LHSP is destined to be an underperformer, despite the wonderful
news of last week, which saw the company gain a very high profile
client in AOL. Just as traders ignore bad news during bull
phases, they ignore good news in bear phases. We hope that most
of you cut your losses yesterday when LHSP broke below the support
of $115 that we pointed out in Sunday's report.
Picked on March 12th @ $119.94
Profit/Loss -15.31 (-13%)
Best Profit +30.12 (+26%)
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PUMA - Puma Technology $146.00 -14.00 (-25.50)
The split is here and we never did get a run out of PUMA. The
stock is in a group that is just getting killed by profit takers
right now. The market has quickly turned its back on stocks with
huge potential but questionable capitalizations. PUMA certainly
fits into that category. Even though we thought that the mid
$150's would provide good support, we were obviously wrong.
Hopefully, you were able to exit before the split at more
favorable prices than the close. We do not think that PUMA is
ready to be euthanized, but the stock could go through a lengthy
consolidation with a downside bias until sentiment changes.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $172.00
Profit/Loss -26.00 (-15%)
Best Profit +32.88 (+19%)
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS
EPNY - E.piphany $168.88 -1.13 (-31.63)
E.piphany continues to slide even as the broader market rallies.
The stock was down over 100 points last week and yet the stock
closed down both days this week showing little signs of life. The
stock has fallen well below support and we are going to close this
one out before things get out of hand. We are dropping EPNY
tonight to protect ourselves from further weakness in the sector.
Hopefully you got stopped out on Monday. If not, set a tight stop
at $167 and look to exit on strength on Wednesday.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $200.50
Profit/Loss = -31.63 (-16%)
Best Profit = -9.12 (-5%)
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MSTR - MicroStrategy Inc. $72.31 -14.44 (-154.44)
MSTR will go down as one of the single best examples of what can
happen when a stock goes on a meteoric rise. The crash can come
on some relatively innocuous news. The exits can get very crowded
the second fear comes into a stock that is very young, unproven
and has not established any support. The fallout has been equally
educational. All of the other "hot" stocks of the past year have
undergone serious scrutiny. Fundamentals do matter and investors
are re-evaluating the multiples placed on unprofitable companies.
That said, there was no way of knowing that MSTR was going to have
to restate their earnings for the past two years. When you buy a
stock, you expect the balance sheets to be properly reflective of
a Company's fundamentals. This is, of course, not always the case
and we could cite dozens of examples. When exiting a position as
catastrophically devastating as this one, you begin to remember
all of the protection strategies you know or may have heard about.
Taking half of your position off of the table, buying puts, never
having more than 10% in any one play or using trailing stops to
name just a few. Unfortunately, even though we warned that this
was an extremely risky play, and the stock was capable of 50-point
moves, we never expected a 100+ point gap down open, making our
stops mostly meaningless. Time to lick our wounds and move on to
the next play.
Picked on March 14th @ $292.00
Profit/Loss -219.69 (-75%)
Best Profit +8.00 (+3%)
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