NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS
EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $151.25 (-13.31)
EXDS is "Hottest of the Hot", (ranking 11 out of 100) in the
information technology industry, according to the 1999 Business
Week "Info Tech 100" profile. Located in the Fertile Crescent of
technology, Silicon Valley (Santa Clara) and founded in 1994, EXDS
pioneered the Internet Data Center market. EXDS is a leading
provider of complex Internet hosting for enterprises with mission-
critical Internet operations. In simple words, EXDS is a web
hosting company that is used with confidence by the "big guys".
EXDS can manage sophisticated systems and networks. They have a
worldwide network of state-of-the-art Internet Data Centers (IDC)
located in the U.S., Europe and Asia, to manage their network
infrastructure. The IDCs have uninterruptible power supply (UPS)
and back-up generators, fire suppression, raised floors, HVAC,
separate cooling zones, seismically braced racks, around-the-clock
operations and high levels of physical security. EXDS is growing.
On 1/26/00, EXDS reported 1999 fourth quarter revenue of $101.4M,
a 49% increase over 1999 third quarter revenues of $68.0M and a
380% increase over the comparable period of the previous year. On
3/16, AG Edwards upgraded EXDS from "accumulate" to "buy", while
Lehman Brothers maintained a "buy" rating. Lehman expects the
Company to exceed first quarter revenue expectations of $131M to
$133M. As for the capital structure of the Company, there are
170.5M shares outstanding with a float of 146.6M, of which 75% is
institutionally held. As of 2/8/00, short interest for the stock
was 18.6M or 12.7% of the float. The Company has had previous
stock splits on 4/13/99, 8/13/99 and 12/15/99. Each split was a
2:1. On 3/3/00, the Company's Board announced another 2:1 split,
contingent upon shareholder approval of an increase in the number
of authorized shares. Upon approval, the payable date for this
split will occur on 06/20/00. The 52-week low for shares of EXDS
was $14.50 on 3/24/99. The 52-week high was $175.00 on 3/10/00. At
the end of February, there was a breakout from the $115-$120 range
on normal volume (about 4M). For now, resistance is sitting at the
10-dma of $155 and then the high of $175. Support is just
underneath the current level at the 5-dma of $149, bolstered by
the 20-dma at $147. If the stock comes under hard selling
pressure, look to the 50-dma at $130 as a good entry point. Set
stops under the 50-dma to limit losses. Use a bounce off any of
the support levels or a breakout above $155 on strong volume
(average 3-month daily volume is 5.23M) to start a new play.
Earnings are expected out in late April, at which time we will
look to exit (in front of earnings as is our policy), with the
possibility of reentering the stock for a split run thereafter.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.25
Changed since picked 0.00
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NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS
EBAY - eBay, $218.94 (+25.69)
eBay is the premier online auction house. The Company has created
a Web-based community in which buyers and sellers are brought
together to buy and sell items such as antiques, coins and other
collectibles in an auction format. Shares of EBAY have been
surging lately. The stock hit its all-time high last April and has
been stuck in a trading range for over six months due to a series
of technical glitches and a general loss of interest with B2C
companies. On 3/8, EBAY broke out and has been trading higher ever
since. Last weekend, there was a rumor that EBAY would be acquired
by Yahoo! (YHOO), which sent the stock to a relative high of
$224.50 on Monday. Yahoo later denied the rumor and EBAY pulled
back, but the stock managed to hold its ground above its old
trading range and we believe that the stock is coming back into
fashion. We also believe that the stock is a prime split
candidate. They already have enough shares for a split and the
stock is within historic split range. The Company may announce a
split at any time, but the earnings release in April looks like
the next possible announcement date. As for the stock, support is
the 5-dma at $210 with underlying psychological support at $200.
Resistance is $225 and then the all-time high of $234. Look for an
entry point on a bounce off of $210 or a breakout above $225 on
strong volume. Only play in a rising market. Plan to exit in front
of earnings in April.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked +0.00
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EPNY - E.piphany, $200.50 (-116.98)
E.piphany, Inc. provides software and services that companies can
use to establish, maintain and improve customer relationships
across both Internet and traditional sales, marketing and
distribution channels. The stock got hammered last week on news
that it had agreed to acquire privately held Octane Software for
approximately 12.8 million shares. Since the announcement, shares
of EPNY have dropped over 36% and we feel that the recent decline
has provide an excellent buying opportunity to get in on this
split candidate. The share price is well above acceptable split
range and the Company has enough shares for a split, even with the
recent purchase. The Company will be announcing earning in April
and we are looking for a split announcement in the near future or
with the earnings release. The stock currently has light support
at $200 but stronger support could be $196 or even as low as $180,
Friday's low. The 50-dma is sitting above that at $185.
Resistance is $207 and then $220 (5-dma). Use a bounce off of $196
or a move above $207 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm
market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions.
Exit in front of earnings unless they announce a split beforehand.
If that occurs, exit in the session following the announcement.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $200.50
Change since picked +0.00
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INTC - Intel Corporation $129.88 (+9.69)
Each day, Intel processes the world's information with more speed
and reliability than the next guy. This leading role that INTC has
achieved in the microprocessor market was in part forged by
dynamic management decisions. A quick peak back into Intel's
history reveals an important turning point the Company made back
in 1999. In its 1998 Annual Report to Shareholders, the Company
announced its core business of microprocessors had slowed
significantly. To rejuvenate its business and maintain its
leadership, INTC management decided to shift its microprocessor
business to rapid growth in Internet integration. The result,
stock prices broke out of a yearlong consolidation and never
looked back. Currently, this trend continues. INTC is once again
trending into new territory, which puts its stock price in the
range of previous split announcements. This gives us confidence
that a split announcement in this area is probable. As for this
week, the stock ended Friday on an all time high of $129.88.
During this run to higher prices, the stock has been finding daily
support along is 5 and 10-dma's ($123.03 and $120.18). These
support points continue to provide good entry levels for the
current uptrend. If prices continue their run, look to the $140
mark for the next level of resistance. However, if prices happen
to sell-off, potential plays may be present if prices bounce off
strong price support of $120, bolstered by the 10-dma. Look for a
split announcement with the upcoming earnings report in mid-April.
Plan to exit ahead of earnings barring an announcement beforehand.
Don't be surprised to see the Company pre-announce positive
earnings over the next week or two.
Picked on Feb 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked 0.00
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MCRL - Micrel $105.94 (-14.63)
Micrel makes analog and mixed-signal semiconductor devices. The
Company also provides custom and foundry services including
silicon wafer fabrication, integrated circuit assembly and
testing. The buzz on the stock is coming from their line of power
management products and power analog circuits that are used in
several high growth markets including cellular telephones,
wireless handheld devices and battery powered computers. The
stock hit an all-time high of $131.50 two weeks ago and has since
traded down to a relative low of $86.25 on Wednesday. Now, the
stock has regained its footing by closing above the 5-dma on
Friday. We believe that the Company is getting ready to announce a
stock split any time between now and their April earnings release.
They already have enough shares to split and the stock is above
the $100 mark. The stock now has support at $100 and then $96.
There is resistance at $111 (10-dma) with heavier resistance at
$120. Open new positions on a bounce off of $100 or a breakout
above $111 on strong volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before starting new plays. Exit before earnings unless
they announce a split beforehand, in which case, we recommend an
exit in the following trading session.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked +0.00
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PPRO - PurchasePro.com $151.75 (+28.12)
It's a good bet that the B2B e-commerce market is expected to grow
from $43 billion in 1998 to $1.3 trillion by 2003, according
Forrester Research. PPRO, located in Las Vegas, is a leading
provider of Internet B2B electronic services and definitely a
player. PPRO's e-commerce solution consists of public and private
communities ("e-marketplaces") where businesses can buy and sell a
wide range of products and services over the Internet in an
efficient, competitive and cost-effective manner. PPRO has a
solution designed to work quickly. The e-marketplace members use a
standard Internet connection, a Web browser and a PurchasePro.com
membership. They are now ready to participate in interactive
buying and selling communities. The e-marketplaces can be
customized and scaled. They utilize an open-architecture platform
that can be integrated with members' existing enterprise resource
planning and accounting systems. On 3/10/00, PPRO and Office
Depot, the world's largest seller of office supplies, made a deal
for a comprehensive online and offline direct marketing program
that will bring PPRO's browser-based e-commerce solution to
millions of Office Depot's business customers. Office Depot has
installed PPRO kiosks in 450 superstores and plans to have 400
more outlets go online by the end of March. For the nine months
ended 9/30/99, PPRO reported total revenues of $3.3M, up from $1M.
The results reflect growth in membership, offset by increased
personnel expenses. The Company has 30.3M shares outstanding and a
float of 19.4M. The short interest is 708K shares or 3.6% of the
float. The Company recently completed a 3:2 split on 12/14/99,
having since traded back up to the same trading range. As for the
stock price, shares of the Company hit a 52-week high of $175.00
at the end of last year before retracing considerable. Since then,
they had been consolidating in the $125 price range. Friday's
action represented an expansion breakout (greatest range for last
2 weeks and highest close for the last 2 months), giving us a very
bullish signal that a retest of the previous highs may in fact be
at hand. The fact that the stock has recovered nicely and is
again trading in its previous split territory leads us to believe
that a split announcement is forthcoming. This is further
bolstered by the PreDEF-14A filing the Company submitted to the
SEC on Friday (17th), calling for a Special Shareholders meeting
to be held to approve an increase in the number of authorized
shares from 40M to 190M. The date for the meeting has yet to be
set, but it does appear the Company is once again gearing for a
split. A 2:1 seems likely this time around. For now, support is
good at $140 and again at the 10-dma of $131. Expect resistance
in $5 to $10 increments up to $175. Look for a continuation of
Friday's expansion breakout, entering positions if the stock
trades above Friday's high of $152.25 on a volume spike.
Otherwise, look for a retrace and bounce off of support before
initiating new plays. We will update as to the date and details
of the Special Shareholders meeting once that becomes available.
We will look to exit on the day following an announcement, unless
that date coincides with earnings; in which case we will exit in
front of earnings.
Picked on Mar 19th @ $151.75
Changed since picked 0.00
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SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES
AXP - American Express $143.63 (+16.94)
The incredible flow of cash from the NASDAQ to the "Big Board" was
huge and unprecedented last week. AXP was a big, bottom-fishing,
beneficiary of all that action as the stock sliced through several
points of overhead resistance. We remarked in Thursday's report
that much of the convergence of the two major indices was due to
the selling of NASDAQ futures followed by the purchase of S & P
500 Futures. The resulting affect of this action was to create
many buy programs in the underlying securities of the "500".
Investors have been buying AXP shares for other reasons as well.
A marriage of the "old" with the "new" occurred early in the week
when AXP partnered with Ariba to increase AXP's Web-market
presence and to increase AXP's online payment capabilities. AXP
serves a huge market of small business owners and the Company
wants to provide as many on-line services as possible to help
these entrepreneurs stay competitive and efficient. AXP could
become one "old" company that can really benefit from the adoption
of all the new technologies available. It is entirely possible
that the convergence of the NASDAQ and the DOW ended on Friday,
with the conclusion of "Triple-Witching" that saw the NASDAQ
outperform the DOW for the first time all week. With a new
quarter upon us, it will be very interesting to see where fund
managers start placing their bets early next week. If managers
decide to start going back into the favorite "Techs " of the first
quarter, then look for AXP to start falling off. That is why we
have suggested that you keep raising your stops to lock in a
profit. A good place to put a stop, if you are a short-term
trader, would be just below support of $140. If the current
momentum carries the stock a bit further, look for a close above
$147 as an indication that the stock could test the next
resistance level of $153-$154. The 3:1 split is still a bit far
off, however we would like to remind you that we will be exiting
this position no later than May 9th, just before the payable date.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +20.88
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CHINA - China.com $112.00 (-16.11)
China.com is a leading pan-Asian Internet Company that provides a
full range of Internet services, including Internet connectivity,
portal services and online advertising. The Company owns a network
of portals that offer local content for the Greater China region.
The Company also invests in Internet companies throughout the
Asia-Pacific region. On Friday, they announced a joint venture
with Softbank Investment Strategic. The two companies will invest
in and assist new and high potential companies as they enter and
expand in the Asian online market. Shares of CHINA were up
slightly on the news, gaining $2 on the day. The good news is that
the stock closed above its 5-dma. It has now spent a week in the
$100-$120 range and the 50-dma support is holding. On April 28th,
the Company will host a General Meeting when the shareholders will
vote on the proposed split. Support has moved up to the 5-dma at
$110 and then $104 (50-dma), with psychological support at $100.
Resistance is the 15-dma at $118 and then the 10-dma at $124. Open
new positions on a bounce off of support or on a breakout above
$118. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market. Exit one day
prior to the payable date.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $110.00
Change since picked +2.00
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CMRC - Commerce One $218.13 (-39.43)
Commerce One has quickly become a primary player in the relatively
new, but rapidly expanding global business to business (B2B) e-
commerce market. Specifically, CMRC builds software that links
buyers and suppliers to goods and services through the Internet.
Everyone understands the huge potential for B2B and Merrill Lynch
just recently put out its own numbers. At a B2B e-commerce
conference earlier this week, Merrill Lynch announced that
transactions could reach $2.5 trillion globally by 2003. Estimates
like these have stirred investor interest, which has consequently
pushed stock prices higher. The stock finished Friday with a light
volume consolidation close of $218.19. Still showing near-term
resistance at $225, a close above this level is our first sign of
higher prices. More resistance for the run will likely be found at
$250. If more selling in the broader market weighs down CMRC
shares, look for the stock to find support at $200 and further
down at $196, bolstered by the 50-dma. Entry points would be
witnessed by robust bounces off support levels, when accompanies
by good volume. However, we believe the stock is poised to run
higher and that a close above $225 would be an excellent time to
consider opening new positions. Coordinate your exit strategies
proceeding the payable date of 4/19, per our normal policy.
Picked on Feb 16th @ $222.52
Change since picked -4.39
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CSCO - Cisco Systems $135.00 (-1.38)
As the world's largest manufacturer of Internet integrated
networking products, CSCO, is always able to generate ample
investor interest. This interest became further heightened when
earlier this week, Cisco announced plans to step up its buying
spree of optical and wireless technology firms. This week alone,
CSCO has announced four such acquisitions and news on this buying
sent shares running. Although finishing off the week slightly down
(1%), shares rebounded 2.53% on Friday, recapturing a mid-week
sell-off. This recovery, which was a continuation from Thursday's
initial rebound, will likely find some resistance at $140. Given
that a price advance does occur, look to exit positions no later
than Tuesday's close. Look to take quick profits with price
bounces off the 20-dma ($133.16) and $130 support levels. In the
event of price deterioration, stops should be placed for price
moves below $129. The 2-day trigger left in this play promises to
make for an exciting run. As is our normal policy, plan to exit in
front of the 3/22 payable date.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $137.44
Change since picked -2.44
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DISH - EchoStar Communications Corp. $121.06 (-16.94)
Volatility in the digital satellite sector continues to provide a
good playing field for quick momentum runs. With or without news,
DISH followers always find reason to create big price moves. In
closing the week, the stock showed further evidence of its support
above the $120 mark. This was witnessed by a strong bounce just
below this level ($119.63), during Friday's intraday price swing.
Future bounces off this support level should provide good entries
for quick profits early in the week. If this scenario does unfold,
look for the price to see some initial resistance at the 5 and 10-
dma's ($122.99 and $124.83). More resistance will likely follow at
$130 and higher yet, at $140. Look to sell positions on price
spikes no later than Tuesday's close. As mentioned, our support
level of $120 remains strong, but just below this level, support
is bolstered by the 20-dma of $118.06. Given the 2-day trigger on
this move, anticipate bounces from these levels with stops set for
price drops below $117. Plan an exit no later than Tuesday's
close.
Picked on Mar 7th @ $121.50
Change since picked -0.44
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ENGA - Engage Technologies $130.00 (-19.00)
Engage Technologies, Inc. is a provider of online marketing
solutions that allow clients to create and use web visitor
profiles. The Company helps marketers execute and optimize
marketing programs such as delivery of targeted advertisements,
content and e-commerce offerings. The stock started the day in
negative territory, but it held $120 support and moved to an
intra-day high of $138. Volume has been light, suggesting an end
to the downward trend. The momentum is turning around as we move
closer to the 2:1 split, payable on April 3rd. However, ENGA
closed directly on its resistance level, so we may see a re-test
of support at $120 on Monday. Hopefully, we see support on the 5-
dma at $128. Set stops under $120 to limit losses. Resistance is
$138 and then $148. Start new plays on a bounce off of $128 or a
move above $138 on heavy volume. There are just two weeks left on
this play so confirm sector momentum and market sentiment before
opening new positions. Plan to exit no later than 3/31.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $126.00
Change since picked +4.00
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HAUP - Hauppauge Digital $72.25 (-0.56)
Hauppauge Digital is the leading developer and manufacturer of
digital video TV and data broadcast receiver products for personal
computers. Their main product is the WinTV, a TV card that allows
users to watch television in a resizable window on their PC
screens. The stock was not too active on Friday, as shares of HAUP
traded in a slim range with less than 100,000 changing hands. It
dipped down to the 10-dma after earlier touching resistance. From
there, it went on to finish down slightly on the day. We are now
one week away from the 2:1 split, payable on 3/24 and we expect
the volume and momentum to pick up closer to the payable date.
Support is the 10-dma at $69 with stronger support at $65. Set
stops under $65 to avoid further losses. Resistance is still $75
and then the all-time high of $82. Open new positions on a bounce
off of $69 or a break out above $75 on heavy volume. Only play on
heavy volume in a positive market. Exit by 3/23.
Picked on Mar 14th @ $77.00
Change since picked -4.75
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LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $119.81 (-0.13)
LHSP develops a slew of fascinating software products that attempt
to make our lives easier, if not a bit more loquacious. Talking
cars, computers and appliances will soon be a reality and we will
never be alone again. The possibility that LHSP's cutting edge
products could become ever more commonplace has launched the stock
into splittable levels. The 2:1 split was announced a while ago,
back in February. The split will be the first in Company history
and because there are an unlimited number of authorized shares, a
vote to increase the number of shares will be unnecessary.
Assuming that shareholders vote to approve the split on April
17th, the split will be payable April 28th. A huge news item
early last week set the share price of LHSP on fire. AOL has
agreed to have LHSP provide linguistic technology to enhance
document searches and spell checking. You cannot find a higher
profile customer than AOL. The announcement is huge and the
initial reaction was very positive, with the stock exploding into
new highs on Tuesday. The rally was quickly squashed by the
NASDAQ meltdown. The good news is that LHSP has developed some
very strong support at $115. The baseline support in this area
could prove to be an excellent launching pad for the next move
higher. If the stock can start rallying early next week, you can
increase your confidence that the stock will be testing its highs
soon. A close above $120 would be a good indication this thing is
back on its way. Look to exit in front of the payable date.
Picked on March 12th @ $119.94
Change since picked -0.13
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MOT - Motorola, Inc. $149.50 (-25.50)
Motorola was a big investor in one of the most colossally bad
investments in history. At one time, MOT was the sole owner of
Iridium, the company with very ambitious plans to provide global
wireless communications. After an IPO, MOT's stake in the company
was greatly reduced. Nevertheless, the entire investment was lost
as Iridium's system proved to be impractical and unnecessary with
the advent of virtually global wireless capabilities through
conventional wireless services. In fact, pretty much the only
client Iridium had left was the Pentagon (they certainly do not
mind over-paying for obsolete technologies). $5 billion in
satellites will now plunge to earth as Iridium asked the
Bankruptcy Court to allow them to cease providing service. We
bring this lengthy story to your attention because it is quite
possible that this news is the reason why MOT did not stage a
substantial rally along with its friends in the SOX. Starting
next week, we may get a "sell the news" rally. Longer term, MOT
looks fantastic due to very strong fundamentals and the fact that
the Company is a leader not only in the very strong semiconductor
group, but MOT is also a huge leader in the equally hot wireless
communications group. There is a 3:1 split pending to also fuel
interest in the shares. The split is pending a Shareholder vote
to approve an increase in the number of authorized shares. After
the vote on May 1st, the stock will split on June 1st. We will be
exiting this position before earnings on April 18th. If the
earnings are good, then we may revisit this play for a possible
post earnings split run. There is very good support for MOT at
$145, a possible entry point in case of a downdraft. Otherwise,
you can add a position at these levels with the hope that the $160
resistance level can be tested soon.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked -2.44
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NOK - Nokia Corp. $199.88 (-15.13)
As the cellular boom continues to echo, Nokia's strategy is to
make it last. It's no secret that NOK prides itself on being the
leader in cutting-edge cellular systems and equipment. The
Company's strategy is simple; harness new cellular technologies to
keep customers upgrading. Growth from several new offerings has
kept the Company's stock price at higher levels. During this week,
NOK's stock closely mirrored the price behavior of many highly
volatile technology stocks. Shares closed Friday at $199.88,
ending in the upper end of a mid-week consolidation range ($202-
$192). This consolidation, which formed light support at $196,
sets a nice base from which the price can run. Upper resistance is
first found at $206.50, bolstered by a 20-dma of $207.13. A
retracement to this level would effectively close Wednesday's down
gap. If good volume can continue to push prices higher, then
resistance will likely be found at $216. Use price moves through
resistance to signal possible plays. This coming week, look for
potent reversals if the price does decline to support at $190, or
further down at $182. Nokia has yet to declare a payable date,
but should do so at the Annual Meeting, set for this Wednesday
(March 22nd). This may create additional excitement in the stock.
Once the payable date has been set, we will update you. Look to
exit in front of the payable date.
Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -21.12
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PUMA - Puma Technology $171.50 (-15.50)
If the vision of the future is correct, where we are all walking
around with handheld communications devices that are capable of
jointly doing everything our PC's and mobile phones can do now,
then PUMA is going to be a huge factor in getting us to that
reality. PUMA has been creating the backbone software technology
that allows mobile computing to work. The potential markets and
applications for PUMA's software are huge and that is why the
stock has been such a favorite among the momentum crowd. We all
know about the huge beating that the NASDAQ momentum stocks took
last week and this PUMA was kicked around like an alley cat.
There are several compelling reasons why we feel that PUMA can
stage a nice comeback and just maybe utilize one of its nine
lives. There were several very good news items coming out last
week about the Company. PUMA got a new big name client when
Alcatel, a French telecommunications company agreed to begin using
Puma's Intellisync synchronization product for their mobile phone
network. Adding to its impressive client list, Puma reached an
agreement with Lycos. Puma will provide Lycos with the tools
necessary to develop a state-of-the-art alert system enabling
Lycos' customers to stay in touch with their Lycos accounts
wirelessly. Also last week, Puma signed an agreement for a
private placement with several institutions. Puma will sell over
500 thousand shares at an approximate price in the mid-$150's.
Private placement offerings not only show a healthy interest in
the long-term prospects of the Company, but also provide excellent
technical support levels as every effort is made to keep the stock
above the secondary offering price. Combine all of the good news
with the fact that the stock is splitting 2:1 on Wednesday and we
feel we have an excellent opportunity for a retest of the highs.
Puma almost got things going yesterday by moving above the highs
of the previous two days. The pullback suggests that there were
still a few profit takers lurking about. The double bottom last
week has established excellent support in the low $150's, but we
highly doubt that support will be tested early nest week.
Purchases at these price levels could be good for a quick rally
into the split. We will be exiting this position no later than
the close on Tuesday.
Picked on March 5th @ $172.00
Change since picked -0.50
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SFA - Scientific-Atlanta $129.81 (-5.63)
The market has figured out that SFA is much more than a commodity
cable box manufacturer. It is the Company's goal to become a
major provider of the technology and services that will help to
make our Televisions high-speed, feature-laden portals to the
Internet. What percentage of people who do not have a PC do have
cable? We have no idea, but there has to be a huge potential
market. In addition, the possibility that people will choose to
"surf-the-Web" through their TV's instead of their computers could
provide even more markets for SFA. In order to improve their
technology and get the word out about their products, SFA sent a
press release out last week stating that they are aggressively
pursuing the best available Engineers, Marketers and Sales People.
SFA is very serious about their future and investors have caught
on. Further confidence in the Company was exhibited yesterday
when the Executive Committee of the B of D approved a share
repurchase of up to 4 million shares. Despite the fact that SFA
plans to payout on a 2:1 split on March 27th, the stock took some
heavy technical damage last week. We are keeping this play in the
hopes that SFA will have a split run in the midst of a market
comeback. The damage was done when SFA crossed below major
support at $132. SFA was relatively strong early last week but
become relatively weak later in the week. A close above
resistance of $132 could result in a move back into the old range,
possibly retesting the high of $157.38 before the split. We would
wait for a move above $132 before initiating any new positions.
If SFA cannot crack resistance, look for the stock to fall into a
$115-$130 trading range, with support at the 20-dma of $125, a
level the stock bounced from on Friday. Look to exit in front of
the payable date.
Picked on Mar 9th @ $146.19
Change since picked -16.38
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SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES
BRCM- Broadcom $217.56 (-25.50)
Broadcom Corporation provides highly integrated silicon solutions
that enable broadband digital data transmission over existing
communications infrastructures. Their products are used in cable
set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, digital
broadcasting and xDSL. The stock traded up on Friday on average
volume as BRCM takes a breather here. On Friday, the Company filed
the preliminary proxy statement for its Annual Shareholder
Meeting, scheduled for 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an
increase in authorized shares from 400 million to 800 million.
This will give them more than enough to split. They may decide to
announce a split either with earnings or after the Shareholder
meeting. Support is now the 5-dma at $210. Stronger support is the
$200 mark. Resistance is the 10-dma at $225 and then $240. Use a
bounce off of $209 (50-dma) or a strong move above $225 on heavy
volume to open new positions. Confirm market sentiment and sector
direction before starting new plays. Plan to exit in front of
earnings or after their Annual Meeting, depending on the timing of
the earnings release.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +4.75
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CHKP - Check Point Software $235.50 (-44.38)
The shares of this leader in Internet security software have been
on a breakneck pace to keep up with this rapidly growing market.
The Company, who has emerged a leader in the firewall market, has
announced that they expect revenues to increase 45% this year. A
45% increase in revenues is great, but its gets even better.
Because the Company is located in Israel, they receive significant
tax breaks from the Israeli government. This has also helped to
substantially boost the Company's operating margins. With so many
positives working in the favor of CHKP, its stock has realized
incredible gains. The stock finished the week with a strong
rebound, gaining 14.88 points to close up 6.78% on Friday. Price
resistance for the rebound is now at $250 (previously support),
then higher up at $270. New positions can be initiated on price
runs through these support levels when accompanied by good volume
(greater than 1.5m). Light price support will be found at the 20-
dma of $226.87. More support beyond this point is found at $200,
then $190. Look for future bounces off these levels to signal
entry points. The announcement of a split may come at the BofD or
a Shareholder's meeting, which we will keep you current on.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $219.13
Change since picked +16.38
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HWP - Hewlett-Packard $139.00 (-7.94)
Developing technologically innovative products is one thing, doing
it with top quality is another. HWP does it all. As a designer and
manufacturer of electronic products and systems, HWP has built a
reputation as a company that excels in quality. One would think
that with such a well-run business, the Company's stock would
carry a high valuation.
This may not be the case. On Friday, the Company announced that it
believes its stock to be undervalued. The Company's stock, which
trades at roughly 41 times earnings, is quite low when compared to
Sun Microsystems's ratio of 117. In a statement late Thursday, the
Director of Investor Relations, Steve Pavlovich, stated that HP's
recent spin-off of Agilent puts its P/E ratio at 25. The Company's
stock reacted very favorable to the news, gaining 4.51% on Friday.
The strength behind HP's week ending rebound suggests that prices
will likely continue to regain more lost ground. If this does
occur, look for likely entries if the stock can break near-term
resistance at $140. The next level of resistance should be found
at $151.88, near the 52-week high. Look for mild support at $131,
sustained by the 30-dma of $132.60. Further support should be
found at $124 (50-dma). Entries can be triggered by price moves
through support or bounces off resistance, accompanied by good
volume. An announcement may occur before the mid-May earnings, if
not earlier. Plan to exit ahead of the earnings date, unless an
announcement comes out first.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +6.00
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MSTR - MicroStrategy Inc. $226.75 (-86.25)
Looking for any reason to sell last week, this e-business
development and consulting Company was pummeled unmercifully by
momentum traders. The business prospects for MSTR are, of course,
still the same. We are concerned that the e-business stocks are
the next bubble to burst after the Genome assault. We continue to
keep MSTR as a play only because we feel that there will be a
better exit point next week, other than the open on Monday.
Philanthropy is not an appreciated activity on Wall Street as MSTR
tumbled more that 50 points after the President of the Company
announced his plans to create and fund (with seed money) an online
university. The goal is to provide millions with the opportunity
to study with some of the greatest lecturers of our time.
Although we cannot believe that these professors are going to
donate their time for free, which is what the plan calls for. As
we said before, the market was killing anything that had perceived
bad news and we suppose that there is speculation that some inside
selling would be necessary to make this "university" become
reality. The technical damage done to MSTR was not as severe as
it may seem at first. It is important to remember that stocks
that move in a parabolic fashion do not have much time to
establish strong support levels under the current share price.
Once minor support of $285 was violated, it was a straight drop to
$215 before any new support was established. This new support has
been tested twice now and it may hold up if traders jump back into
MSTR early next week. If the stock drops below $214, watch out,
although the 20-dma is sitting at $212. $200 and then $190 could
come really fast. Like we said, we are looking for a better exit
point, hopefully somewhere in the $240's, where there is a little
bit of resistance. At this time, we are not recommending any new
positions be placed.
Picked on March 14th @ $292.00
Change since picked -65.25
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RIMM - Research In Motion Limited $132.88 (-2.12)
Well, right after we complimented RIMM for having built some
wonderful relative strength last week in the face of the market
meltdown, the stock tossed "snake eyes" when the NASDAQ finally
rallied. We still like RIMM because of its involvement in the
cutting edge wireless communications group. RIMM has products
with all of the right buzzwords, such as wireless e-mail and
wireless modems; to hopefully get investors excited in the stock.
RIMM did get a new order from a very high profile client last
week. Rogers AT&T Wireless, Canada's largest wireless service
provider, agreed to purchase 10,000 of RIMM's BlackBerry Handheld
product. This top-of-the-line product can provide two-way e-mail
capability as well as provide users with access to Microsoft
Outlook's calendar, tasks tools and an address book. The larger
technical picture for RIMM is a bit bearish. We are trying to
catch a reversal with this play. The stock is in a downward
channel, but it looks as if it may be turning up and could break
the upper band of the channel and reverse course. We need to see
a succession of two to three higher-highs to gain some more
confidence. We are more confident of the support here, bolstered
by the 5-dma at $130. $125 is excellent support and appears to be
the bottom of a base, despite the two sharp selloffs below that
level that established double-bottom support at $110. Obviously,
we do not think that the stock is going to retest that second
support level anytime soon. Perhaps a half position is advisable
here, with a full position being placed after the stock can take
out the previous day's high a couple of days in a row. Although
no split is currently pending, we will keep you apprised of any
developments such as a B of D or Shareholders meeting. Otherwise,
we are looking for a split announcement to come with earnings.
That said, we will be exiting this position no later than the end
of April, in front of the earnings announcement.
Picked on Mar 16th @ $139.06
Change since picked -6.19
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