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Play Updates
Sunday, March 12, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

CMVT - Comverse Technology $233.63 (+6.13)

The wireless future of communication technology is calling upon investors to listen. CMVT is a giant among multimedia communications and information processing companies. Their products allow wireless and wireline telephone companies to offer an expanding range of enhanced services. Currently, there are over 75 countries and 290 wireless and wireline network operating company's that use Comverse's ESP systems. These companies include 13 of the 20 largest telephone companies in the world. Recognizing the potential for this Company, investors have once again sent shares higher for another split run. On March 3rd, the Company announced a 2:1 stock split, payable on 4/3. As for our play now, the stock has developed into a nice consolidation pattern, from which a break above $240 will trigger the run. A close above this level will give us a clear entry signal. If this breakout does occur, accompanied with good volume ($2.0m vs. $1.0m), then look for light resistance at $250, heavier at $260. An optimum scenario to trigger the breakout would be a gap and run with heavy volume above $240. The stock has shown short-term support at $221, with firm support at $200, bolstered by a 20-dma of $200.69. A hard bounce off support will also present a potential entry. Stops should be set under $200 to protect against a shift in trend. The payable day for the split is April 3rd and an exit should be planned ahead of this day.



Picked on Mar 12th @ $233.63
Change since picked 0.00

 


LHSP - Lernout & Hauspie $119.94 (+1.69)

The age of "HAL" is upon us and Arthur C. Clarke appears to have been very prescient about the 2001 date. The idea of having conversations with our automobiles, computers and appliances may be a little creepy for some of us, but LHSP is certainly getting us closer to that reality. The companies that develop and produce wild science fiction technologies, such as voice recognition, can really get investors excited with their checkbooks. A 2:1 split was announced back in early February, the first in the Company's history. LHSP has an unlimited number of authorized shares so a vote to increase shares is unnecessary. Shareholders will be voting to approve the split on April 17th. When the vote passes, the payable date will be April 28th. In an attempt to increase its presence in the United States, the Belgian-based Company agreed to purchase Dictaphone Corporation for $936 million in stock and assumed debt. Dictaphone makes hand held recording devices popular with Doctors and the healthcare industry as a whole. The acquisition will further LHSP's plans to make inroads into overall patient record keeping and other healthcare solutions. LHSP's stock is at a potentially huge intersection. A break above what has proven to be very strong short-term resistance at $120, or perhaps just a bit above, could result in the next substantial leg up. With a split coming, we like our chances. A good volume move above $120 can be bought. Give the stock some room down to above $110 support if you want to attempt to buy a dip. The stock has been developing a nice bullish pennant pattern for a while now. Remember the longer the base, the bigger the breakout! We will look to exit in front of the April 28th payable date, as is our normal policy.



Picked on Mar 12th @ $119.94
Change since picked 0.00

 

NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

None SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

ADI - Analog Devices $172.94 (+5.94)

Analog Devices makes high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing integrated circuits. Their products are used in several types of signal processing equipment and systems for use in communications, computer, industrial, aerospace and high-performance consumer electronics applications. The Company's largest product group is general-purpose Standard Linear ICs. ADI fell victim to the first round of pre-split profit taking on Friday, as we are now only 3 sessions away from the split. The Company announced a 2:1 stock split back in February with a payable date of Wednesday, 3/15. The stock has light support at the 5-dma, now up to $173. Strong support remains steady at the 10-dma, currently at $166. Set stops under $166 as protection. Resistance remains at $180 and then $185. We would caution that new positions be opened only by those people able watch the stock or those looking to day trade. If so, open new positions on a bounce off of $160 or a breakout above $180 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before starting new plays. We will be dropping this play by Tuesday night to avoid the likely profit taking that will set in on the Wednesday payable date.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $167.00
Change since picked +5.94

 


AMAT - Applied Materials $193.06 (+2.31)

Applied Materials is the #1 semiconductor manufacturing equipment and tool Company in the world. Much of the recent rise in the share price of AMAT can be attributed to two factors. First, semiconductor companies are continuously developing faster and more complicated chips. The new chip designs require ever more precise and efficient manufacturing tools. This dynamic of the industry has created an incredible amount of demand for AMAT's products. Secondly, worldwide semiconductor sales are very strong. As demand increases, more manufacturing capacity will be required. New plants will probably be filled with Applied Materials' equipment. Let's throw a third factor in there, a 2:1 split run. After the last earnings report on 2/15, the Company saw fit to announce their fifth split in the past eight years. The payable date for the split is this upcoming Wednesday. We will be exiting this position no later than Tuesday to avoid the possibility of a little pre-split profit taking. AMAT has developed a very bullish pattern. A double bottom reversal into a new all time high on Friday bodes well for future gains in the stock. We keep looking for a close above $195 to instill us with the confidence that AMAT will soon take on the task of going through price resistance of $200. Any moves above $197 should get us there. First support should be about $190, which is in the middle of the current trading range. Additional support is offered by both the 5 and 10-dma's sitting around the $185-$186 levels. We look for AMAT to make a solid move forward into the split as long as the market remains neutral to positive. Again, remember to exit this position before Wednesday's split.



Picked on Feb 24th @ $183.50
Change since picked +9.56

 


AXP - American Express $126.69 (-6.81)

We are not usually in the habit of bottom fishing here at SplitTrader.com, but sometimes there are great opportunities we simply cannot ignore. This Warren Buffett favorite has recently been besieged with selling due to interest rate concerns. Let's face it; financial stocks make a fortune when rates are dropping due to their yield spreads. The opposite result fairly occurs in the other direction. Oddly though, AXP's drop has been barely insulated by a 3:1 stock split announcement back on January 24th. It looks as though the bear's grip on the stock is loosening a bit and it is time to try and catch a little bounce. AXP is also getting some respect as a potential new economy stock. Not only is AXP speeding up their online payment capabilities, in addition, they increased their Web presence with a joint marketing agreement with and investment in Respond.com. As we noted in the initial write-up on Thursday, it appears that AXP has found some support at $120. Our timing could not have been more fortuitous as AXP opened flat Friday and powered higher for most of the day, only to lose about half of its gains in the severe end-of-day selling. Look for value buyers to try and keep things going, considering that AXP was still one of the strongest stocks on the Big Board, despite the selloff. Support is still $120. The stock, by virtue of Friday's trading, has established a bit of resistance at $130. A close above $130 could see the stock staging a rally to the high $130's or perhaps $140 before finding more resistance. When trading stocks on a bounce, keep in mind that there are a lot of short-term traders who are just itching to get back to even and sell. Therefore, we are looking for a slow stable climb and not a huge one day move (sans a major news item of course). If the stock reverses and goes below $118, you probably should not hesitate to get out. Lots of other traders probably will.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +3.94

 


CSCO - Cisco Systems $136.38 (-1.07)

The Internet revolution rests on the shoulders of companies who can provide its networking solutions. Cisco sits at the top of this ever growing and popular networking sector. This sector has experienced great upside volatility from the NASDAQ's record run to 5000. Despite this advance, CSCO shares found more sideways consolidation this week ($127-$139), closing down just .07% on Friday's close of $136.38. Friday's action saw the stock briefly trade above its major resistance of $140, but failed to close above this mark. A close above this resistance, accompanied by good volume, remains the key signal for a true breakout and likely advance to $150. We remain optimistic that this scenario will likely unfold, however, if shares do drop, then good buying opportunities may be present if the price rebounds off the 20-dma ($132.34.). Just below this level, another entry exists at strong support of $130. Design your exit in front of the payable date of 3/22, as per our normal policy.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $137.44
Change since picked -1.06

 


DISH - EchoStar Communications Corporation $138 (+16.56)

Transmitting over 500 channels of television programming from distant space, DISH, is on the cutting edge of digital satellite television. The shares of DISH rallied higher this week and gained more ground on Friday, due in part to positive news. DISH made a joint agreement with New Frontier Media to offer adult programming through its Dish Network. The benefits to DISH are two-fold. First, DISH is expected to gain more monthly subscribers, which will also boost revenues in high profit margin pay-per-view programming. Next, Dish Network programming will be promoted on 'I-Gallery', a subsidiary of New Frontier Media, which currently receives approximately one million hits per day on its website. The news sent shares to a new 52-week closing high of $138. Current momentum could send shares up to the buck fifty mark, before finding more resistance. Light support is found at the 5- dma ($126.68), which has acted as a trendline for the price breakout over last two weeks. Further support is found at $122, bolstered by the 10-dma ($120.79). Bounces off these support levels offer potential entries when accompanied by good volume. Look to close your position ahead of the payable date of 3/22.

[Editor's note-we had originally entered and exited a play in this stock earlier in the month. When we exited, it was to avoid what we thought was to be the earnings announcement date of the 6th. We then reentered this play this past Tuesday to take advantage of the split run, payable on March 22nd. We were caught off guard to find that the Company did not release earnings and in fact are set to announce before the market this Monday. As such is the case, we are going to monitor the stock closely on Monday for any signs of a post earnings selloff. Depending on whether this does or does not occur, and the severity with which it sells off if it does, we will make a decision as to whether the stock is worth staying in for the expected split run, or whether a drop as of Monday is justified. If we do decide to drop the stock after Monday's action, we will inform readers in the Monday update newsletter. We would suggest that you watch the stock and set a stop under $130 just in case selling does set in on Monday. We apologize for the oversight on our behalf]



Picked on Mar 7th @ $121.50
Change since picked +16.50

 


INSP - InfoSpace.com $244.94 (-14.88)

The competitive advantages that companies gain by incorporating Internet efficiency into their business is driving the demand for Internet infrastructure companies. INSP is a leader in this group who has been steadily improving their reputation as a top provider for these services. Investors who have identified this trend have reaped terrific gains from this stock. As for this week, the stock sits in a consolidation range ($270-$243) on top of a series of momentum runs below. If momentum picks up again and pushes higher to a close above the top of this consolidation range ($270), consider this a good time to initiate a new position, when combined with good volume. On Friday, the stock closed at $244.94, slightly above light support of $243. If the price retests $243 and bounces hard with a run through the 10-dma ($246.10), then we may experience a run to the upper range of the consolidation. Further support lies down at $230, where a reversal from this level is also an opportunity for new positions. Have your exit strategy in place before the payable date of 4/6.



Picked on Feb 10th @ $191.50
Change since picked +53.44

 


NEWP - Newport Corporation $173.63 (+12.38)

Newport is a global supplier of high precision components, instruments, micro positioning and measurement products to the fiber optic communications, computer peripherals, semiconductor equipment and scientific research industries. Most of the buzz around this stock stems from the 91% growth from their fiber division. The stock stalled on Friday after a big jump on Thursday, giving us a pretty good entry point on the bounce through $167 midday. The Company set a 3:1 stock split on 2/10, but will need shareholder approval to accommodate the split. They have announced that their Annual Shareholder meeting will be held on 5/17, when they will vote on the increase in authorized shares from 20 million to 75 million. If approved, they will set a payable date at the meeting. For now, the stock will be riding on the fiber optic momentum train through April, when they announce earnings. Support is now $170 and then $165, the 5 and 10-dma's respectively. Set stops under $165 in case of further weakness. Resistance is still $180 and then $195, just above the all-time high. Look for a bounce off of $165 or a breakout above $180 to start new positions. This stock is light on the news and trades mostly on sector momentum. As such, we recommend that you play when the fiber stocks like JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Juniper (JNPR) and Brocade (BRCD) are running. The company is expected to announce earnings on 4/20 and we may decide to exit and re-enter closer to the Annual meeting in May.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $178.50
Change since picked -4.88

 


NOK - Nokia Corp. $215.00 (-6.00)

Nokia's reputation for developing highly advanced cellular phones and equipment is well known, but did you know they are also a worldleader in the supply of broadband Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) products? The Company announced Friday that it's going to provide broadband DSL solutions to ChungHwa Telecom of Taiwan, the worlds third largest market for ADSL services. A deal of this magnitude helps to confirm the quality of Nokia's overall product line. As for the stock, the news announcement was able to help push shares up to its ascending midline (resistance), before closing off its highs to finish at $215. A break through the ascending midline ($220-$221) will set the stage for the next advance. A price breakout through this level will likely find its next resistance at the 52-week high of $227.06. The 10-dma ($212.75) provides initial support for a price pullback. Further down, heavier support is found at $206, reinforced by the 20-dma ($204.76). A future bounce off this support level, when combined with good volume, would present a good entry. However, if a price drop does ensue, place a stop below $204. NOK's payable date has not been declared, so support and resistance will determine exit and entry points.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked -6.00

 


NTAP - Network Appliance $236.88 (+36.94)

NTAP is benefiting from the constant growth and popularity that the Internet is creating for more complex computer systems. NTAP, which stands at the top of a rapidly expanding market, supplies the need for greater storage software capacities that protect and back-up data. A look at its chart will give you a good idea of how sought after its products are. The stock, which has had an incredible string of momentum runs over this year, shows no wavering of investor enthusiasm. The stock hit a 52-week high of $248 on Friday, before profit taking dropped the shares to a close of $236. Resistance at the $250 mark remained evident on Friday. Light support for the stock still remains at $240 and again at $230, with stronger support at $220. Enter new positions with bounces off support or moves through resistance. We anticipate the price to continue its run ahead of the payable date. Plan to exit in front of the payable date of 3/22, as is our normal policy.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $199.94
Change since picked +36.94

 


PUMA - Puma Technology $187.00 (+15.00)

There is sector rotation even within the broad category know as "technology". Moving to the forefront of trader's interest in recent weeks are the stocks of the advanced wireless communications industry. PUMA provides much of the backbone software structure that allows devices such as "smart" mobile phones and handheld computing modules to work. The mobile Internet could very well be the next huge growth story for the rest of the year and PUMA is a must own stock for anyone interested in investing in this sector. Last week, PUMA announced that it has accepted the SyncML Initiative along with IBM, Lotus, Motorola, Nokia and Palm. New industries need to accept common standards to avoid squabbling that can lead to lost opportunities and increased costs. The acceptance of the initiative is a good sign that the infant industry is on its way to becoming an ever growing colossus. In addition, PUMA received the Mobility Award at the Mobile Insights 2000 Conference last week for its Intellisync software. The award was excellent publicity, helping to increase public awareness of PUMA's products and growth potential. We are now entering the acceleration stage for the split run. The payable date is less than two weeks away. This "cat" seems to be chasing and confounding bulls and bears alike. A very strong early move yesterday above $200 certainly looked like the next breakout move we were expecting. The corresponding retreat that saw the stock finish down for the day and closing near its low was discouraging. Any weakness could easily drive the stock into the support area of the low $170's, although the 5- dma sitting up at $180 should offer some support. A dip to either level would be a very tempting place to go long. Because of the ugly reversal on Friday, you have to be very cautious of buying the stock if it takes out Friday's high. You might get caught in a trap. A close above $200 would be a positive indicator that we can get this stock running into its split, but we would not chase the stock on any early morning rallies. We will be exiting this position no later than the close of trading on March 21st.



Picked on March 5th @ $172.00
Change since picked +15.00

 


SFA - Scientific-Atlanta $135.44 (+1.46)

You do not have to have .com in your name to be an Internet play. SFA is a leading manufacturer of cable boxes, but the real buzz that has been contributing to the rise of the stock is the Company's new cable boxes that provide a slew of Internet features and services. A couple of weeks ago, the Company announced that it is increasing capacity for the production of more of these Internet cable boxes. The growth picture is very strong for SFA and there seems to be plenty of room for all types of Internet players. The strong demand for the Company's products induced Credit Suisse to raise their earnings estimates for SFA last week. More analyst action last week saw Gerard Klauer raise their target to $175 from $90, (how do the clients who sold it at $90 feel? But I digress) and Josepthal raised their target to $165 from $125. The rally in the stock over the first two months of 2000 led to a 2:1 split announcement on February 22nd. The payable date is March 27th. Therefore, we are getting closer to what could be a nice split run. It looks as if Friday's late day sell programs beat up SFA. On the positive side, SFA closed right on top of a very strong support line. SFA is developing a flag pattern and the stock is sitting right on the bottom. A flat to slightly down opening could prove to be a fantastic entry point for bullish investors. We would advise to not give the stock too much leeway to the downside from here. A move below the bottom edge of the flag could easily take the stock straight back to $110, although there is light support on the 10-dma up around $127. We feel that this is an unlikely scenario, but be careful because many technicians will be watching to see if SFA can hold here. If it does hold, look for a retest of $150 pretty quickly. We will be exiting this position no later than Friday the 24th, the last trading day before the payable date.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $146.19
Change since picked -10.75

 


TERN - Terayon $266.50 (+45.69)

Terayon Communication Systems makes cable modem systems enabling cable operators to deploy two-way broadband access services over any kind of cable plant. Their system reduces the time-to-market and eliminates the cost and task of upgrading the cable plant. Shares of TERN were down in Friday's session after an all-time high on Thursday. The stock touched its 5-dma and bounced back, showing good support in a mixed market. The Company announced a 2:1 stock split at their last Board meeting on 2/10. Shareholders are set to vote on an increase the number of common shares to 200 million at a special meeting to be held on April 11th. They are expected to set the payable date after the meeting. There is support at the 5-dma and the intra-day low at $258. Stronger support is the 10-dma at $250. Resistance is $277 and then $285. This stock can be extremely volatile at times and trades in a wide intra-day range regularly. Open new positions on a bounce off of $258 or a move above $277 on heavy volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. We will set an exit date as soon as the split payable date is announced. If earnings come up before the announcement, exit in front of earnings.



Picked on Mar 9th @ $277.63
Change since picked -11.13

 


VERT - VerticalNet Inc. $273.19 (+21.47)

The Internet is well on its way in revolutionizing the entire process by which buyers and supplier conduct their businesses. VERT, who operates 55 business to business (B2B) website communities, made solid gains for the week, closing up 8.5%. Gains for the week largely came from a major gap through the $250 resistance level on good volume. On Friday, the shares did manage to make a new intra-day high of $296.75, before settling into the previous day's range of $273.19. This end of day decline, although a substantial price range from high to close, was made on approximately half the volume of the previous day breakout (2.6m vs. 1.3m). This provides us with a general indication that momentum favors buying rather than selling. Upside resistance remains at $300, where a close above that level might signal another buying opportunity. Support for the run exists at $260 and further down at $250, still bolstered by the 5-dma ($257.41). If the stock does happen to retrace, look for a hard bounce off these levels for a potential entry. Our target for exiting is the day before the payable date of 3/31.



Picked on Feb 24th @ $221.00
Change since picked +52.19

 

SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

CHKP - Checkpoint Software Technologies $279.88 (+50.13)

What seemed like a Hollywood fantasy almost 20 years ago has become reality. Really brainy kids can hack into sensitive computer systems. Perhaps the biggest threat to the new economy is the eroding confidence of the consumer to trust their sensitive information, particularly credit cards, with the E-commerce companies. Enter CHKP, which is the global leader of the Web protection software industry. Investors in this Company believe that the growth potential for CHKP and its products and services is seemingly endless. This view has helped the stock to go on an incredible run that currently is showing no signs of abating. Less than two months ago, CHKP split 2:1. The subsequent rally has made CHKP a strong split candidate again, although the Company needs to increase the number of authorized shares in order for a split to occur. The next earnings report is in mid-April, which is usually a good time to announce a split. Some of last week's run in the shares of CHKP can be attributed to an upgrade from Prudential. The analyst there raised the rating to Strong Buy from Accumulate. Also last week, CHKP received a contract from Telecom Italia to provide the software and services to protect Telecom Italia's Internet services. 30 point trading ranges like Friday's keeps the blood flowing and helps remind you that you are alive. They tried to take CHKP lower, but there is still too much interest in this stock to get things rolling to the downside. It looks as if CHKP has established a little short-term support at $270. Pullbacks to this area could be good entry points. Even though the stock keeps making new highs, short-term traders would be wise to not try and buy in new high ground. The trading characteristic of this stock is to pull back intraday after making a new high. So, try to anticipate a move and take a profit on breakouts if you are a short-term trader. We are hoping to get an announcement on the next B of D meeting, which could give us a hint that a split announcement is on its way. A close above $300 would be a good sign that the strong uptrend could keep going for a few days in a row.



Picked on Feb 27th @ $205.63
Change since picked +74.25

 


CLRN - Clarent Communications $169.25 (+31.25)

Clarent Corporation offers Internet protocol telephone systems that allow simultaneous transmission of voice, fax and data over the Internet. The stock is having trouble holding $170. This is not a good sign considering the declining daily volume. The action we saw on Friday is typical of a stock in the early days of a consolidation phase. However, all we need is some positive news and we will be off to the races again. We are expecting a split announcement any time from now until the end of April when the Company releases their earnings results. Support is forming at $164 with strong support at the 5-dma, currently at $160. Set stops under $160 to protect profits. Resistance has come down to $170 and then the all-time high. Use a bounce off of $164 or a strong break out above $171 on heavy volume to open new positions. This play has become extremely volatile so confirm market sentiment and sector momentum before starting new plays. The dates for the BoD meeting and the earnings release have not been set as of yet, so we will continue to look for any new developments and let you know as soon as the information becomes available.



Picked on Feb 29th @ $109.25
Change since picked +60.00

 


CMRC - Commerce One $257.56 (+22.50)

Commerce One is one of the "Big 3" B2B stocks. The Company provides electronic commerce solutions that link buyers and suppliers of goods and services over the Internet. The Company maintains the Commerce Chain Solution to automate the procurement cycle between multiple buyers and suppliers. On Friday, CMRC took a rest. It had to happen sooner or later since the stock has been up in the five previous sessions. The good news is that it closed above its 5-dma. The bad news is that volume has been steadily declining and there may be more weakness ahead on Monday as CMRC consolidates the recent move in the $255-280 level. The Company is scheduled to announce earnings on 4/24 (First Call) and we are looking a split announcement by then. They may decide to announce the split at their next BoD meeting, which could take place any day now. Support is holding at the 5-dma, currently at $256. Stronger support is at $250 and then the 10-dma at $239. Set stops under $239 to limit losses. Resistance is now $275 and then $280. Use a bounce off of any of the support levels or a breakout above $275 on strong volume to start new plays. If we get a split announcement before earnings, look for an exit on the day following the announcement. If not, exit before the earnings release.



Picked on Mar 7th @ $250.88
Change since picked +6.69

 


CREE - Cree Inc. $194.00 (+1.00)

Formally known as Cree Research, years of lab work have finally paid off for this highly innovative company. The Company is the leading developer of Silicon Diode semiconductors. The really exciting products have come from the Company's blue laser project. These lasers will potentially revolutionize the entire LED market, from car dashboards to flat panel displays. CREE is also seeing strong growth from its mobile phone back lighting product. Momentum investors like to build the share price of companies that have potential blockbuster products and Cree certainly fits into that category. The stock has already split in the past year and it could certainly split again. Currently, there are only enough authorized shares to enact a 3:2 split. Earnings are in the first week of April, which would be an appropriate time to announce another split. As for the chart, this is starting to get ridiculous. CREE has knocked on the $200 door five times now without being able to stay above this incredibly strong resistance level. It appears that support keeps inching up and can now be found at $190 (5-dma at $189), presenting us with a very bullish pennant formation. If it breaks below $190, give the stock a little room to drift lower before getting out. A strong market this week could give us another attempt at $200. Could six be the magic number? Expect a really strong rally as soon as CREE closes a couple of points above $200. Otherwise, traders can keep going after profits in the $190-$200 range. Look to exit in front of earnings or the day following a split announcement if that comes in front of earnings.



Picked on Feb 27th @ $175.88
Change since picked +18.13

 


FIBR - Osicom Technologies Inc. $138.88 (+5.63)

Investor sentiment toward fiber optics networking has long been favorable, as shares of this hot sector have proven this point. Since our original pick on February 22, shares of this momentum play have jumped over 46 points. As for this week, the stock sits in a consolidation range ($145-$125) above a succession of momentum runs below. If the stock can close above its all- important $145 mark, combined with good volume, you may want to view the upside breakout as a good time to initiate plays. Initial support can be found at the 10-dma, currently at $134.84, and then further down at $125. If the price does happen to retrace to $125, look for a hard bounce off this level for a possible entry. If the stock can break its $145 level, we expect a momentum play in front of the earnings release and possible split announcement on March 15th. Our target date for exit is this earnings report date.



Picked on Feb 22nd @ $92.56
Change since picked +46.32

 


LVLT - Level 3 Communications $130.19 (+11.56)

Level 3 Communications is a telecommunications and information services holding company that owns subsidiaries and substantial equity positions in public companies. LVLT plans to build an advanced international facilities-based communications network based on Internet Protocol technology. The stock is moving on the Quest (Q) and Deutsche Telekom (DT) debacle. Now, LVLT is being considered as a potential DT target. On Friday, the stock moved above $130 to a new high, but it was not a strong move as volume was average and LVLT's intra-day range was tight. However, these are short-term conditions and the stock is still trending up. We are hoping for a split announcement out of their next BoD meeting or in conjunction with their earnings announcement in April. Support is the 5-dma at $126 with stronger support at $120, (the 10-dma). There is resistance at $132 and then $135. Open new positions on a bounce off of the $126 level or on a move above $132 on strong volume. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market. If we get a split announcement before earnings, we recommend exiting in the session following the announcement. If not, plan to exit in front of the earnings release.



Picked on Mar 5th @ $118.63 
Change since picked +11.56

 


SEBL - Siebel Systems $162.88 (+8.16)

Siebel Systems, Inc. designs, develops, markets and supports enterprise-class sales, marketing and customer service information software systems. Shares of SEBL continue to consolidate in the $160-175 range as the broader market searches for direction. The stock was lower on Friday on light volume, but it did manage to hold at the 5-dma. The Company has a history of announcing splits at their BoD meetings and the next BoD should take place in April (not confirmed). The Company is also scheduled to announce earnings results some time during the third week in April, which may coincide with the BoD meeting. We are watching closely for any developments. As for the stock, support remains at the 5-dma, now at $161. There is stronger support at $155 and then the 10-dma at $151. Set stops under $155 to lock in profits. Resistance is currently $170 and then $175. Look for a bounce off of $151 or a break out above $170 on heavy volume to start new plays. Only play on heavy volume in a rising market. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Plan to exit in front of earnings unless we get an announcement beforehand. If this happens, exit in the next session following the announcement.



Picked on Feb 22nd @ $121.88  
Change since picked +41.00

 


TXN - Texas Instruments $180.75 (-5.88)

Could it be time for this semiconductor leader to split again? The Company last split its shares 2:1 back in July. The Annual Meeting is on 4/20 and do not be surprised if there is a split announcement before the meeting. Shareholders will be voting at the meeting to increase the number of Authorized Shares to 2.4 billion from 1.4 billion. "Texan" is a very popular core holding of many mutual funds. Look for continued accumulation of shares as money pours into technology funds. Fundamentally, things are very strong for TXN. Last week, it was announced that global semiconductor sales were up 33% for the month of February, which bodes well that TXN is enjoying another excellent quarter. We are looking for confirmation that TXN survived the double bottom in the middle of last week. For confirmation, we were looking for the stock to climb above $181. We got what we were looking for and we were very impressed with the way TXN closed, on its high, in the face of program selling for most of the rest of the NYSE. We would be comfortable buying the stock on Monday on an open above $182. Indications are that TXN could rally straight to $195 or perhaps new highs if it can just complete the reversal of its very short-term downtrend. Support is light at the 10-dma of $174 and still strong at $170.



Picked on March 9th @ $180.00
Change since picked +0.75

 


VIGN - Vignette $297.00 (+30.25)

Vignette Corporation is a provider of Internet Relationship Management software and services designed to build online customer relationships. Their customers come from a variety of industries, including financial services, health, media, retail, technology and telecommunications. The stock was flying on Friday, breaking through the $300 mark and setting an all-time high of $302 before profit taking set in. We are now just 2 trading days away from the Special Shareholders Meeting on 3/14. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in the number of authorized shares and we are looking for a split announcement following the meeting. Support is now up to $290 with stronger support at the 5-dma, now up to $278. Place stops under $278 to lock in profits. Resistance is $300 and then possibly $310. Use a bounce off of $290 or a breakout above $300 on strong volume as a signal to initiate positions. The stock is up a bunch since we began this play. Adding positions at this point in the game is risky and should only be done by those willing to day trade the stock. If we get a split announcement on Tuesday, exit this play the following day. If not, we will evaluate whether to stick around until earnings in April.



Picked on Feb 27th @ $228.75
Change since picked +68.25

 

SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

IMNX - Immunex Corporation $213.25 (-31.19)

The selling in the hottest names of the 'new' Biotech world has turned into a full-blown correction. With the strong possibility that IMNX is looking like it could consolidate for a while or possibly drift lower despite a pending 3:1 split, we feel it is time to drop this risky play. The payable date for the split is March 20th. If the stock can hold support here and start to move higher as we get closer to the payable date, perhaps we will try again to get a split run out of IMNX. One contributing factor that has put a chill on the shares of IMNX was the announcement that the U.S. Justice Department is looking into IMNX's pricing practices of two of their cancer treatment drugs. Although the Company admits to no wrongdoing, the investigation could lead to monetary damages and/or a requirement that the Company changes its pricing strategy with its suppliers.



Picked on Feb 29th @ $197.44

Profit/Loss = +15.81  (+ 8%)
Best Profit = +53.37 (+27%)

 

SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

None

 


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