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New Plays
Thursday, September 28, 2000

AMCC - Applied Micro Circuits $214.00 +11.31 (+15.50)

Applied Micro Circuits provides high-performance, high-bandwidth silicon solutions used to transport voice and data over optical networks. The Company's products primarily address the needs of the fiber optic based WAN and LAN markets. The stock has been on fire over the last two years, coming from a mere $4 in September of 1998. Not to shabby, considering that the stock was hit with a 62% correction from a relative high of $158.88 in March. On Thursday, shares of AMCC hit an all-time high of $215.25 and we believe that the stock could move higher as we move closer to the Company's earnings release. In addition, the MACD just turned positive in the middle of its range. AMCC has embarked on some solid upside runs in the past when this technical event has transpired. On August 29th, the shareholders voted to increase the number of authorized shares to 630 million, giving the BoD enough shares for a split with only 124.6 million shares outstanding. The stock price is currently in historic split range so we may get a split announcement with the earnings release, scheduled for 10/11 after the bell. From a technical standpoint, AMCC has support at the 9/1 high of $210.19 with stronger support at the 5-dma, now up to $202. Resistance is above the all-time high of $215.25 and then $225. We are looking for entry points on a bounce from the $202-210 range or a breakout above $215.25 on volume greater than 3 million shares by midday. We will use stops at $200 to limit potential losses in these volatile times in tech- land.


Picked on Sep 28th @ $214.00
Change since picked +0.00



MBI - MBIA Inc. $71.06 +1.56 (+3.00)

MBIA achieves a new 52-week high on big volume. MBIA, Inc. is engaged in providing financial guarantee insurance and investment management and financial services to public finance clients and financial institutions on a global basis. On Thursday, bolstered by a broad market rally, shares of MBI were elevated into uncharted territory on volume that almost doubled the average at 680 thousand shares. This same level was tested earlier this month, but the low volume was an indication that the stock was not ready to move higher. Last week the company announced a nice quarterly dividend of 20.5 cents per share payable in October to shareholders. We see MBI as a at $125.00 and we note that the company currently has 200 million shares authorized, enough for a stock split. The company last affected a split in 1997. A probable time for an announcement might be with earnings in November. The overall trend of the stock has been a bullish climb since mid summer and it looks ready to move higher. We now see the stock encountering resistance at Thursday's new high at $72.00. Support is now noted at the 5-dma at $69.25, the 10-dma at $69.00 and the 20-dma at $67.62. Possible entry points for new plays might be if the stock rockets up to new levels on continued good volume. A quick bounce off a support level might also be a buying opportunity. Look for momentum in the Dow (INDU) and the S&P Insurance Index (IUX) for leadership. The IUX, by the way, is also embarking into new and higher ground daily as well. We will place our protective stop below the support layers at $67.50. Please remember to take a moment and review our IN PLAY section daily.


Picked on September 28th @ $71.06
Change since picked 0.00


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