Using Insider Transactions to Boost Returns
By Matt Paolucci
Investors are always looking for additional ways to analyze
potential investments. Looking at insider transactions may be
another tool to help investors uncover prospective investment
opportunities.
Insider trading refers to transactions in the securities of
some company executed by a company insider. An insider is
defined as any officer of director, or an owner of 10% or more
of a company's stock. Insiders must report transactions to the
SEC by the 10th of the month following the transaction.
Insider purchases are most significant when they are direct
purchases by corporate officers involved in the day to day
activities of the firm. Purchases due to the exercise of
employee stock options at a discount to market price, company
buybacks, trades by beneficial owners of 10% or more of a
companies stock, transactions less than 100 shares or for a
stock price under $2 a share are not considered significant.
Research has shown that on average, stocks with significant
insider purchases have outperformed the market averages
consistently.
Insiders purchase stock when they feel the outlook for the
company has improved for a variety reasons, including improved
sales and earnings prospects, development and/or approval of
new products and takeover speculation.
Although a company insider might theoretically be anyone who
knows material financial information about the company before
it becomes public, in practice, the list of company insiders
is normally restricted to a moderate-sized list of company
officers and other senior executives. Smart companies normally
warn all employees to be careful when they trade, for obvious
reasons. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has
strict rules in place, which spell out when company insiders
may execute transactions in their company's securities. All
transactions that do not conform to these rules are, in
general, prosecutable offenses under US securities law.
Insider purchases and sales are closely watched. If you see
insiders buying a lot of stock on the open market, this might
be worth investigating as a buy signal, although insiders are
often wrong. Another example is insider sales. Seeing insiders in
fairly young companies selling stock, (either selling very cheap
stock they've had a while, or same-day exercise of a stock option
followed by selling of the resulting stock) may not mean very
much. Also, with smaller companies, it may be difficult to find
insider transactions, due to disclosure rules.
The timing of sales also means relatively little. Silicon
Valley financial advisors tell people to sell some stock every
year for tax reasons. Normally, there are at most 4 times
during a year when an insider can sell stock anyway, and it is
easy for other events to knock this down to one or two times.
I've heard of cases in which people got stuck for two years
post-IPO not being able to sell one share of stock.
When looking at stocks that have insider buying or selling
activity, you need to ask yourself some questions. For
example, who is doing the buying, when did the buying take
place, and how large was the transaction?
When addressing the question of who the buyer is, here are
some questions to think about. Was the person making the
purchase the CEO of the company? If so, what was the
percentage of the CEO’s purchase in comparison to total
holdings? Is the purchase large enough to warrant a move in
the stock?
On the other hand, if it were a vice president making a
smaller purchase, you have to take into consideration
other questions. Is that vice president the only vice
president in the entire company, or is he/she one of 200 other
VPs? This purchase may not convince investors to buy shares.
Brokerage houses, for example, sometimes have hundreds of vice
presidents. Finding out the identity of the buyers and sellers is
extremely important, so do your homework. Obtaining this kind
of information can often times be very tedious.
Regarding the question of when the transaction was made, you
really want to find the most recent insider transaction
filings. The more current the information is, the better
chance you have of taking advantage of any movement in the
stock, whether the move is up or down. Also, shifts from
insider selling to insider buying, combined with positive
price movement (along with the opposite scenario), can often
render substantial returns.
Size does matter, especially when it comes to insider
transactions. This is not rocket science. Disclosure of a
5,000 share purchase by a director of marketing and
communications probably won’t make a big difference in the
overall scheme of things. However, a purchase of 100,000 shares
by the CEO of that same company will most likely have a greater
impact, and could move the stock. The same effect may be
achieved through a series of purchases by several officers. It
is always nice to see multiple layers of management buying
shares of its stock. On the flip side, seeing multiple
officers selling shares is a pretty good indication that it’s
time to get out.
So why would a company insider want to sell his/her own stock?
Excluding factors directly related to the share price, an
insider may sell for estate planning purposes, personal
financial needs, desire to diversify an investment portfolio,
as a result of an exercise of stock options as part of one's
compensation, or other reasons not related to the outlook of the
company. However, when there are a number of insiders selling at
the same time, especially after a significant price rise or
corporate development, you should be alert.
As far as finding Web sites that allow you to see insider
transactions, CNBC’s Web site (after clicking on the Stocks
section) has an area where you can type in the ticker symbol
and see several years of transactions from officers and
directors. Yahoo’s Finance Web page offers much the same
information.
Keep in mind, looking at the insider transactions of companies
is just one tool in the grand scheme of investing. A comprehensive
analysis of any investment, which, in my opinion, should include
looking at the technical characteristics of a stock, fundamental
analysis, and comparative analysis, should always be done. Good
luck and happy trading!